• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.65 no.6
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• pp.923-933
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• 2016

This paper proposes a new method for evaluating Effective Load Carrying Capability(ELCC) and capacity credit(C.C.) of power system including Wind Turbine Generator(WTG) combined with Battery Energy Storage System(BESS). WTG can only generate electricity power when the fuel(wind) is available. Because of fluctuation of wind speed, WTG generates intermittent power. In view point of reliability of power system, intermittent power of WTG is similar with probabilistic characteristics based on power on-off due to mechanical availability of conventional generator. Therefore, high penetration of WTG will occur difficulties in power operation. The high penetration of numerous and large capacity WTG can make risk to power system adequacy, quality and stability. Therefore, the penetration of WTG is limited in the world. In recent, it is expected that BESS installed at wind farms may smooth the wind power fluctuation. This study develops a new method to assess how much is penetration of WTG able to extended when Wind Turbine Generator(WTG) is combined with Battery Energy Storage System(BESS). In this paper, the assessment equation of capacity credit of WTG combined with BESS is formulated newly. The simulation program, is called GNRL_ESS, is developed in this study. This paper demonstrates a various case studies of ELCC and capacity credit(C.C.) of power system containing WTG combined with BESS using model system as similar as Jeju island power system. The case studies demonstrate that not only reasonable BESS capacity for a WTG but also permissible penetration percent of WTG combined with BESS and reasonable WTG capacity for a BESS can be decided.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Process Engineers
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.39-46
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• 2018

Two surfaces that have relative motion show different characteristics according to surface roughness or surface patterns in all lubrication areas. For two rough surfaces with mixed lubrication, this paper proposes a new approach that includes the contact characteristics of the surfaces and a probabilistic method for a numerical analysis of lubrication. As the contact area of the two surfaces changes according to the loading conditions, asperity contact is very important. An average flow model developed by Patir-Cheng is central to the study of lubrication for rough surfaces. This average flow model also refers to a multi-asperity contact model for deriving a modified Reynolds equation and calculating the lubricant characteristics of a bearing surface with random roughness during fluid flow. Based on the average flow model, this paper carried out a numerical analysis of lubrication using a contact model by considering a load change made by the actual contact of asperities between two surfaces. Lubrication properties show different characteristics according to the surface patterns. This study modeled various geometric surface patterns and calculated the characteristics of lubrication.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Groundwater Environment
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.80-87
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• 1998

Since groundwater flow paths have one of the major roles to transport the radioactive nuclides from the radioactive waste repository to the biosphere, the discrete fracture network model is used for the rock block scale flow instead of the porous continuum model. This study aims to construct a three dimensional discrete fracture network to interpret the groundwater flow system in the study site. The modeling work includes the determination of the probabilistic distribution function from the fracture geometric and hydraulic parameters, three dimensional fracture modeling and model calibration. The results of the constant pressure tests performed in a fixed interval length at boreholes indicate that the flow dimension around boreholes shows mainly radial to spherical flow pattern. The fracture transmissivity value calculated by Cubic law is 6.12${\times}$10$\^$-7/ ㎡/sec with lognormal distribution. The conductive fracture intensity estimated by FracMan code is 1.73. Based on this intensity, the total number of conductive fractures are obtained as 3,080 in the rock block of 100 m${\times}$100 m${\times}$100 m.

• Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.243-249
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• 2015

To improve stability of the water resources that were seriously affected by climate change and various environmental effects and to supply the clean water always, continuous efforts are essential. Provision of measures with respect of hardware is basically essential to improve the water resources stability due to the topographic characteristic in Korea. However, building a new dam becomes gradually very difficult because of a hardship in selecting right places, opposition forces such as environment and local residents, negative publicity for large civil engineering projects, and so on. The present study, therefore, proposes the Blue dam as an alternative for securing the water resources of a new concept considering domestic conditions. To evaluate the effect of the Blue dam, the Hec-ResSim model is used and the probabilistic discharge flow rate is applied. As a result, when Dam Yeongcheon is applied as a study area, securing water resources of 14 million tons are predicted be secured and the flood control of 15.4 million tons is expected, in comparison with operation of the existing dam only. Consequently, Blue dams are supposed to carry out the function of securing water resources, controling flood, maintaining eco-environmental instream flow, generating hydroelectric power, and providing spaces for recreational activities.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.24 no.2 s.88
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• pp.139-145
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• 2006

This paper develops pedestrian fatality models capable of producing the probability of pedestrian fatality in collision between vehicles and pedestrians. Probabilistic neural network (PNN) and binary logistic regression (BLR) ave employed in modeling pedestrian fatality pedestrian age, vehicle type, and collision speed obtained from reconstructing collected accidents are used as independent variables in fatality models. One of the nice features of this study is that an iterative sampling technique is used to construct various training and test datasets for the purpose of better performance comparison Statistical comparison considering the variation of model Performances is conducted. The results show that the PNN-based fatality model outperforms the BLR-based model. The models developed in this study that allow us to predict the pedestrian fatality would be useful tools for supporting the derivation of various safety Policies and technologies to enhance Pedestrian safety.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.32 no.3
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• pp.265-279
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• 1999

In this study, one of the techniques on the extension of low flow series has been developed, in which the daily streamflows were simulated by the Tank model with the input of extended daily rainfall series which were stochastically generated by the Markov chain model. The annual lowest flow serried for each of the given durations were formulated form the simulated daily streamflow sequences. The frequency of the estimated annual lowest flow series was analyzed. The distribution types to be used for the frequency analysis were two-parameter and three-parameter log-normal distribution, two-parameter and three-parameter Gamma distribution, three-parameter log-Gamma distribution, Gumbel distribution, and Weibull distribution, of which parameters were estimated by the moment method and the maximum likelihood method. The goodness-of-fit test for probability distribution is evaluated by the Kolmogorov-Sminrov test. The fitted distribution function for each duration series is applied to frequency analysis for developing duration-low flow-frequency curves at Yongdam Dam station. It was shown that the purposed technique in this study is available to generate the daily streamflow series with fair accuracy and useful to determine the probabilistic low flow in the watersheds having the poor historic records of low flow series.

• Journal for History of Mathematics
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.79-86
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• 2008

The sex ratio at birth of South Korea is exceeding the natural sex ratio at birth, which is estimated to be about 105. One of the reasons of high sex ratio at birth is due to sex-selective abortion which is caused by strong son preference. The main objective of this study is to identify whether the families which are trying to bear children only until they acquire one son contribute to high sex ratio at birth. As a result, we obtain the theorem that if the number of such families diverge, the sex ratio at birth converges to the natural sex ratio almost surely. Therefore, we conclude that the existence of the families which are trying to bear children only until they receive one son does not affect the sex ratio at birth.

• Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.107-112
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• 2003

Probabilistic exposure assessment has been recognized as an important tool in microbial risk assessment, because of obtained the desired results to characterize of variability and uncertainty associated with the microbial hazards. In addition, it will be provided much more actuality information than the point-estimate approaches. In this study, we present methodology using mathematical probability distribution in exposure assessment and estimating of contamination level of Listeria monocytogenes in meat and meat products as a case study. The result of estimation contaminatin level was mean ($50^{th}$ percentile) -4.08 Log CFU/g minimum ($5^{th}$ percentile) -4.88 Log CFU/g, maximum ($95^{th}$ percentile) -3.56 Log CFU/g.

• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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• v.42 no.2
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• pp.130-140
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• 2017

Background: With the need for a domestic level 3 probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), it is essential to develop a Korea-specific code. Health effect assessments study radiation-induced impacts; in particular, long-term health effects are evaluated in terms of cancer risk. The objective of this study was to analyze the latest cancer risk models developed by foreign organizations and to compare the methodology of how they were developed. This paper also provides suggestions regarding the development of Korean cancer risk models. Materials and Methods: A review of cancer risk models was carried out targeting the latest models: the NUREG model (1993), the BEIR VII model (2006), the UNSCEAR model (2006), the ICRP 103 model (2007), and the U.S. EPA model (2011). The methodology of how each model was developed is explained, and the cancer sites, dose and dose rate effectiveness factor (DDREF) and mathematical models are also described in the sections presenting differences among the models. Results and Discussion: The NUREG model was developed by assuming that the risk was proportional to the risk coefficient and dose, while the BEIR VII, UNSCEAR, ICRP, and U.S. EPA models were derived from epidemiological data, principally from Japanese atomic bomb survivors. The risk coefficient does not consider individual characteristics, as the values were calculated in terms of population-averaged cancer risk per unit dose. However, the models derived by epidemiological data are a function of sex, exposure age, and attained age of the exposed individual. Moreover, the methodologies can be used to apply the latest epidemiological data. Therefore, methodologies using epidemiological data should be considered first for developing a Korean cancer risk model, and the cancer sites and DDREF should also be determined based on Korea-specific studies.

• Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.19-28
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• 2018

In this paper, we studied on the sampling of ocean meteorological data to analyze signature of naval ships. The newest ocean meteorological data, that was quality controled by the Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA), was collected. Outliers were removed from the data by setting the usable range of data. After that, the data size was reduced through the random sampling method, taking geopolitical significance and effective area of buoy, for probabilistic analysis. Moreover, the sample sizes were set at 100, 200, and 400 by considering the population size and a 95% confidence level. The final sample was obtained using the two-dimensional stratified sampling method based on highly correlated water temperature and air temperature. The sum of the squared errors and the confidence interval was calculated to compare the result of sampling. As a result, this study proposed reasonable sample size for infra­red signature analysis of naval ships.