DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

A Comparative Review of Radiation-induced Cancer Risk Models

  • Received : 2016.09.02
  • Accepted : 2017.03.10
  • Published : 2017.06.30

Abstract

Background: With the need for a domestic level 3 probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), it is essential to develop a Korea-specific code. Health effect assessments study radiation-induced impacts; in particular, long-term health effects are evaluated in terms of cancer risk. The objective of this study was to analyze the latest cancer risk models developed by foreign organizations and to compare the methodology of how they were developed. This paper also provides suggestions regarding the development of Korean cancer risk models. Materials and Methods: A review of cancer risk models was carried out targeting the latest models: the NUREG model (1993), the BEIR VII model (2006), the UNSCEAR model (2006), the ICRP 103 model (2007), and the U.S. EPA model (2011). The methodology of how each model was developed is explained, and the cancer sites, dose and dose rate effectiveness factor (DDREF) and mathematical models are also described in the sections presenting differences among the models. Results and Discussion: The NUREG model was developed by assuming that the risk was proportional to the risk coefficient and dose, while the BEIR VII, UNSCEAR, ICRP, and U.S. EPA models were derived from epidemiological data, principally from Japanese atomic bomb survivors. The risk coefficient does not consider individual characteristics, as the values were calculated in terms of population-averaged cancer risk per unit dose. However, the models derived by epidemiological data are a function of sex, exposure age, and attained age of the exposed individual. Moreover, the methodologies can be used to apply the latest epidemiological data. Therefore, methodologies using epidemiological data should be considered first for developing a Korean cancer risk model, and the cancer sites and DDREF should also be determined based on Korea-specific studies.

Keywords

References

  1. Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute. Development of computing code system for level 3 PSA. KAERI/RR-1758/96. 1997;3-7.
  2. International Commission on Radiological Protection. Recommendations of the international commission on radiological protection. ICRP Publication 60. 1991;11-25.
  3. National Academy of Sciences. The effects on populations of exposure to low levels of ionizing radiation: BEIR I. 1972;85-91.
  4. National Academy of Sciences. Health risks from exposure to low levels of ionizing radiation: BEIR V. 1990;161-176.
  5. National Academy of Sciences. Health risks from exposure to low levels of ionizing radiation: BEIR VII-Phase 2. 2006;259-282.
  6. Evans JS, Moeller DW, Cooper DW. Health effects model for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis. Part I: Introduction, Integration, and Summary. Part II : Scientific basis for health effects models. NUREG/CR-4214. 1985;I23-I35.
  7. Evans JS. Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident con-sequence analysis. Rev. 1 PART I. NUREG/CR-4214. 1990;I26-I42.
  8. Abrahamson S, Bender MA, Boecker BB, Gilbert ES, Scott BR. Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis. Rev. 1 Part II. NUREG/CR-4214. 1991;45-46.
  9. Evans JS, Abrahamson S, Bender MA, Boecker BB, Gilbert ES, Scott BR. Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis. Rev. 2 PART II. NUREG/CR-4214. 1993;26-44.
  10. Jow HN, Sprung JL, Rollstin JA, Ritchie LT, Chanin DI. MELCOR Accident Code System (MACCS) model description. Vol. 2. NUREG/CR-4691. 1990;6.8-6.10.
  11. Takahara S, Iijima M, Shimada K. Application of health effect model of NUREG/CR-4214 to the Japanese population and comparison with a latest model. Jpn. J. Health Phys. 2015;50(3):172-181. https://doi.org/10.5453/jhps.50.172
  12. United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation. Effect of ionizing radiation: Volume 1 with Scientific Annex A. UNSCEAR 2006 report. 2008;123-138.
  13. International Commission on Radiological Protection. Recommendations of the international commission on radiological protection. ICRP Publication 103. 2007;173-200.
  14. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. EPA radiogenic cancer risk models and projections for the U.S. population. EPA Report 402-R-11-001. 2011;16-48.
  15. World Health Organization. Health risk assessment from the nuclear accident after the 2011 great east Japan earthquake and tsunami based on a preliminary dose estimation. 2013;125-129.
  16. Thompson DE, et al. Cancer incidence in atomic bomb survivors. Part II: Solid tumors, 1958-1987. Radiat. Res. 1994;137:S17-S67. https://doi.org/10.2307/3578892
  17. Preston DL, Ron E, Tokuoka S, Funamoto S, Nishi N, Soda M, Mabuchi K, Kodama K. Solid cancer incidence in atomic bomb survivors: 1958-1998. Radiat. Res. 2007;168:1-64. https://doi.org/10.1667/RR0763.1
  18. Preston DL, Pierce DA, Shimizu Y, Cullings HM, Fujita S, Funamoto S, Kodama K. Effect of recent changes in atomic bomb survivor dosimetry on cancer mortality risk estimates. Radiat. Res. 2004;162:377-389. https://doi.org/10.1667/RR3232
  19. Preston DL, et al. Cancer incidence in atomic bomb survivors. Part III: Leukemia, Lymphoma and Multiple Myeloma, 1950-1987. Radiat. Res. 1994;137:S68-S97. https://doi.org/10.2307/3578893
  20. Werner R, et al. Dose and dose-rate effects of ionizing radiation: a discussion in the light of radiological protection. Radiat. Environ. Biophys. 2015;54:379-401. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00411-015-0613-6

Cited by

  1. Optimal collimator rotation based on the outline of multiple brain targets in VMAT vol.13, pp.1, 2018, https://doi.org/10.1186/s13014-018-1039-5
  2. Development of the Korean-specific radiation-induced cancer risk model for level 3 probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) vol.57, pp.7, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1080/00223131.2020.1720849