• 한국지반환경공학회 논문집
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• 제10권7호
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• pp.111-115
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• 2009

국내에서는 지반의 설계응답스펙럼을 확률론적으로 생성한 지진재해도와 결정론적으로 유도된 지진계수를적용하여 생성한다. 지진재해도와 지진계수는 호환되지 않지만, 현 설계기준은 이런 근본적인 비호환성을 무시하고 있다. 지진재해도와 지진계수를 동일한 확률론적 기반에서 생성한다면 이와 같은 문제를 극복할 수 있지만, 기존의 방법으로는 지진계수를 확률론적으로 생성할 수 없다. 본 논문에서는 동반논문에서 신(新) PSHA의 결과물로써 생성된 지진기록을 입력지진파로 활용하여 1차원 등가선형 지반응답 해석을 수행하였으며 이의 결과를 기반으로 등재해스펙트럼을 생성하였다. 등재해스펙트럼의 또 한가지 장점은 지반물성치의 불확실성과 임의성이 과학적으로 고려되었다는 점이다. 등재해스펙트럼은 나아가 확률론적인 지진계수를 도출하는데 활용되었다. 확률론적인 지진계수를 내진설계기준에서 제시된 지진계수를 비교한 결과, 확률론적으로 계산된 지진계수는 결정론적으로 계산된 결과와 상당한 차이가 있는 것으로 나타났다.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제13권4호
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• pp.421-427
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• 2017

Seismic safety evaluation of weir structure is significant considering the catastrophic economical consequence of operational disruption. In recent years, the seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) has been issued as a key area of research for the hydraulic system to mitigate and manage the risk. The aim of this paper is to assess the seismic probabilistic risk of weir structures employing the seismic hazard and the structural fragility in Korea. At the first stage, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) approach is performed to extract the hazard curve at the weir site using the seismic and geological data. Thereafter, the seismic fragility that defines the probability of structural collapse is evaluated by using the incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) method in accordance with the four different design limit states as failure identification criteria. Consequently, by combining the seismic hazard and fragility results, the seismic risk curves are developed that contain helpful information for risk management of hydraulic structures. The tensile stress of the mass concrete is found to be more vulnerable than other design criteria. The hazard deaggregation illustrates that moderate size and far source earthquakes are the most likely scenario for the site. In addition, the annual loss curves for two different hazard source models corresponding to design limit states are extracted.

• 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지반공학회 2009년도 춘계 학술발표회
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• pp.707-714
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• 2009

The design response spectrum generally used in Korea is decided by the site coefficients determined by deterministic methodology, while it is based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. The design response spectrum has to be made using probabilistic method which includes uncertainties of ground motions and ground properties for coincide with probabilistic methodology of seismic hazard analysis. In this study probabilistic site coefficients were developed, which were defined by the results of site response analysis using a set of ground motion that was compatible with present seismic hazard map. The design response spectrum defined by probabilistic seismic coefficients resulted in lower spectrum in long period area and larger spectrum in short period area. Also, the maximum spectral accelerations in site class D and site class E were lower than one in site class C while in the previous design response spectrum the maximum spectral acceleration increased from site class A to E.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제49권2호
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• pp.373-379
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• 2017

Seismic probabilistic safety assessments are used to help understand the impact potential seismic events can have on the operation of a nuclear power plant. An important component to seismic probabilistic safety assessment is the seismic hazard curve which shows the frequency of seismic events. However, these hazard curves are estimated assuming a normal distribution of the seismic events. This may not be a strong assumption given the number of recorded events at each source-to-site distance. The use of a normal distribution makes the calculations significantly easier but may underestimate or overestimate the more rare events, which is of concern to nuclear power plants. This paper shows a preliminary exploration into the effect of using a distribution that perhaps more represents the distribution of events, such as the t-distribution to describe data. The integration of a probability distribution with potentially larger tails basically pushes the hazard curves outward, suggesting a different range of frequencies for use in seismic probabilistic safety assessments. Therefore the use of a more realistic distribution results in an increase in the frequency calculations suggesting rare events are less rare than thought in terms of seismic probabilistic safety assessment. However, the opposite was observed with the ground motion prediction equation considered.

• 한국해양공학회지
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• 제19권1호
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• pp.26-32
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• 2005

Recent earthquakes, measuring over a magnitude of 5.0, on the eastern coast of Korea, have aroused interest in earthquake analyses and the seismic design of caisson-type breakwaters. Most earthquake analysis methods, such as equivalent static analysis, response spectrum analysis, nonlinear analysis, and capacity analysis, are deterministic and have been used for seismic design and performance evaluation of coastal structures. However, deterministic methods are difficult for reflecting on one of the most important characteristics of earthquakes, i.e. the uncertainty of earthquakes. This paper presents results of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment(PSHA) of an actual caisson-type breakwater, considering uncertainties of earthquake occurrences and soil properties. First, the seismic vulnerability of a structure and the seismic hazard of the site are evaluated, using earthquake sets and a seismic hazard map; then, the seismic risk of the structure is assessed.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제26권3호
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• pp.191-201
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• 2024

A comprehensive probabilistic seismic hazard analysis was carried out in Istanbul to examine the seismotectonic features of the region. The results showed that earthquakes can trigger one another, resulting in the grouping of earthquakes in both time and space. The hazard analysis utilized the Poisson model and a conventional integration technique to generate the hazard curve, which shows the likelihood of ground motion surpassing specific values over a given period. Additionally, the study evaluated the impact of seismic hazard on the structural integrity of an existing masonry tower by simulating its seismic response under different ground motion intensities. The study's results emphasize the importance of considering the seismotectonic characteristics of an area when assessing seismic hazard and the structural performance of buildings in seismic-prone regions.

• 한국지진공학회논문집
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• 제8권6호통권40호
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• pp.23-29
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• 2004

원전 구조물 및 기기의 내진설계를 위한 설계지진의 설정에는 결정론적 방법이나 확률론적 방법이 사용되어 왔다. 최근에는 확률론적 지진재해도 분석이 일반화 되면서 확률론적으로 설계지진 및 평가용 지진의 설정 방법이 합리적인 방법으로서 인식되어 많이 사용되고 있다. 우리나라의 경우 원전부지에 대한 확률론적 지진재해도 분석이 확률론적 지진위험도 평가의 일환으로 대부분 완료되어 있다. 본 연구에서는 확률론적 지진재해도의 재분해를 통하여 확률론적 시나리오 지진을 산정할 수 있는 기법을 확립하고 국내 원전 부지에 대한 확률론적 지진재해도 분석 결과를 이용하여 계산 예를 수행하였다. 이 기법을 사용하면 내진설계 및 내진안전성 평가에 활용할 수 있는 확률론적 시나리오 지진을 설정할 수 있어 매우 유용한 것으로 판단되며 합리적인 시나리오 지진의 산정을 위해서는 합리적인 지진구역도 및 감쇄식의 개발이 필요하다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제41권10호
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• pp.1243-1254
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• 2009

The paper discusses the methodology and the use of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for nuclear power plants from a European perspective. The increasing importance of risk-informed approaches in the nuclear oversight process observed in many countries has contributed to increasing attention to PSHA methods. Nevertheless significant differences with respect to the methodology of PSHA are observed in Europe. The paper gives an overview on actual projects and discusses the differences in the PSHA-methodology applied in different European countries. These differences are largely related to different approaches used for the treatment of uncertainties and to the use of experts. The development of a probabilistic scenario-based approach is identified as a meaningful alternative to the development of uniform hazard spectra or uniform confidence spectra.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제41권10호
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• pp.1235-1242
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• 2009

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is routinely conducted in the US for nuclear plants, for the determination of appropriate seismic design levels. These analyses incorporate uncertainties in earthquake characteristics in stable continental regions (where direct observations of large earthquakes are rare), in estimates of rock motions, in site effects on strong shaking, and in the damage potential of seismic shaking for engineered facilities. Performance goals related to the inelastic deformation of individual components, and related to overall seismic core damage frequency, are used to determine design levels. PSHA has the ability to quantify and document the important uncertainties that affect seismic design levels, and future work can be guided toward reducing those uncertainties.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제34권6호
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• pp.586-595
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• 2002

The Seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) or seismic margin assessment (SMA) have been used for the seismic safety evaluation of nuclear power plant structures and equipments. For the SPRA or SMA, the reference response spectrum should be defined. The site-specific median spectrum has been generally used for the seismic fragility analysis of structures and equipments in a Korean nuclear power plant Since the site-specific spectrum has been developed based on the peak ground motion parameter, the site-specific response spectrum does not represent the same probability of exceedance over the entire frequency range of interest. The uniform hazard spectrum is more appropriate to be used in seismic probabilistic risk assessment than the site- specific spectrum. A method for modifying the seismic fragility parameters that are calculated based on the site-specific median spectrum is described. This simple method was developed to incorporate the effects of the uniform hazard spectrum. The seismic fragility parameters of typical NPP components are modified using the uniform hazard spectrum. The modification factor is used to modify the original fragility parameters. An example uniform hazard spectrum is developed using the available seismic hazard data for the Korean nuclear power plant (NPP) site. This uniform hazard spectrum is used for the modification of fragility parameters.