• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 1997.10a
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• pp.8-14
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• 1997

The dynamic responses of highway bridges are varying depending on the features of either traveling vehicles or bridges. In this study, the probabilistic characteristics of dynamic amplification factors of highway bridges due to traveling heavy vehicles have been examined through analytical simulation processes. The truck with tandem axle and tractor with semitrailer are selected as the representative heavy vehicles, which are modeled with three dimensional 7-DOF and 12-DOF models, respectively. The analytical results have been compared with the experimental results of dynamic loading tests and the validity of the analytical models has been examined. Parametric studies on the means and extreme values of amplification factors have been performed with various traffic conditions such as vehicle types, vehicle weights, surface profiles, vehicle velocity, etc.

• Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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• 1990.10a
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• pp.29-34
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• 1990

Based on the recent developments of the reliability-based structural analysis and design as well as the extending knowledge on the probabilistic characteristics of loadings and resistances, the probability based design criteria have been successfully developed for many standards. Since the probabilistic characteristics depend highly on the local environments(loadings) and workmanship resistances), it is recognized to develop the design creterion compatible with domestic requirements. In this study, therefore, the proper probability based design criterion(load and resistance factor design formats) has been developed based on the safaty levels observed from calibration with existing standards, which applies to the ultimate limit states of reinforced concrete members.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.5 no.4
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• pp.177-184
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• 2001

In this study, three most distinct types of general rigid connections are included in the modelling, with is implemented into a computer code. The cost, functions of connections are constructed by using the estimated unit cost of bolting, welding and connection-steel elements incorporating all the effect of materials, labor, and fabrication work. Bused on the recent developments of the reliability-based structural analysis and design as well as the extending knowledge on the probabilistic characteristics of load and resistances, the probability based design criteria have been successfully developed for many standards. Since the probabilistic characteristics depend highly on the local load and resistances, it is recognized to develop the design criterion compatible with domestic requirements. The existing optimum design methods, which are generally based on the structural theory and certain engineering experience, do not realistically consider the uncertainties of load and resistances and the basic reliability concepts.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.113-124
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• 1997

Based on the recent developments of the reliability-based structural analysis and design as well as the extending knowledge on the probabilistic characteristics of load and resistances, the probability based design criteria have been successfully developed for many standards. Since the probabilistic characteristics depend highly on the local load and resistances, it is recognized to develop the design criterion compatible with domestic requirements. The existing optimum design methods, which are generally based on the structural theory and certain engineering exprience, do not realistically consider the uncertainties of load and resistances and the basic reliability concepts. This study is directed to propose a optimum design based Expected Total Cost Minimization on two-way slab system which could possibly replace optimum design based traditional provisions of the current code, based on the AFOSM reliablity theory.

• Journal of IKEEE
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.236-243
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• 2010

Power quality mitigation devices play an important role in lots of industrial segments. Although there were many devices available in the market, the selection of an appropriate device specially for voltage sags and interruptions mitigation has been a challenge in the utility and customer for several years. It usually depends on technical and economic characteristics of the device. Nevertheless, most mitigation method is selected by rule of thumb or empirical method. In this paper, the life cycle cost analysis for the probabilistic risk assesment of voltage sag mitigation method is performed using either the deterministic or probabilistic approach. The difference between a deterministic and a probabilistic cost analysis approach is illustrated with five different case studies. This paper not only provides a comparison of life cycle costing of various devices but it also indirectly shows the possible savings due to the mitigation of voltage sags in the form of a project balance chart.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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• v.49 no.4
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• pp.195-198
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• 2000

This paper illustrates a new method for constructing composite power system effective load duration curve(CMELDC) at load points. The main concept of proposed method is that the CMELDC can be obtain from convolution integral processing of the outage probabilistic distribution function of not supplied power and the load duration curve given at each load point. The effective load duration curve (ELDC) at HLI plays an important part in probabilistic production simulation, reliability evaluation, outage cost assessment and power supply margins assesment for power system planning and operation. And also, the CMELDC at HLII will extend the application areas of outage cost assessment and reliability evaluation at each load point. The CMELDC at load points using the Monte Carlo method and a DC load flow constrained LP have already been developed by authors. The effective load concept at HLII, however, has not been introduced sufficiently in last paper although the concept is important. In this paper, the main concept of the effective load at HLII which is proposed in this study is defined in details as the summation of the original load and the probabilistic loads caused by the forced outage of generators and transmission lines at this load point. The outage capacity probabilistic distribution function at HLII can be obtained by combining the not supplied powers and the probabilities of the not supplied powers at this load point. It si also expected that the proposed CMELDC can be applied usefully to research areas such as reliability evaluation, probabilistic production cost simulation and analytical outage cost assessment, etc. at HLII in future. The characteristics and effectiveness of this methodology are illustrated by case study of IEEE-RTS.

• Atmosphere
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.509-520
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• 2018

The performance of the newly designed Pusan National University Coupled General Circulation Model (PNU CGCM) Ensemble Forecast System which produce 40 ensemble members for 12-month lead prediction is evaluated and analyzed in terms of boreal winter temperature over South Korea (S. Korea). The influence of ensemble size on prediction skill is examined with 40 ensemble members and the result shows that spreads of predictability are larger when the size of ensemble member is smaller. Moreover, it is suggested that more than 20 ensemble members are required for better prediction of statistically significant inter-annual variability of wintertime temperature over S. Korea. As for the ensemble average (ENS), it shows superior forecast skill compared to each ensemble member and has significant temporal correlation with Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) temperature at 99% confidence level. In addition to forecast skill for inter-annual variability of wintertime temperature over S. Korea, winter climatology around East Asia and synoptic characteristics of warm (above normal) and cold (below normal) winters are reasonably captured by PNU CGCM. For the categorical forecast with $3{\times}3$ contingency table, the deterministic forecast generally shows better performance than probabilistic forecast except for warm winter (hit rate of probabilistic forecast: 71%). It is also found that, in case of concentrated distribution of 40 ensemble members to one category out of the three, the probabilistic forecast tends to have relatively high predictability. Meanwhile, in the case when the ensemble members distribute evenly throughout the categories, the predictability becomes lower in the probabilistic forecast.

• Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.120-126
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• 2011

The fatigue damages in structural details of offshore plants can be accumulated due to various environmental loadings such as swell, wave, wind and current. It is known that load histories acting on mooring and riser systems show stationary and ergodic bimodal wide-banded process. This paper provides refined approach to obtain time signals representing stress range histories from wide-banded bimodal spectrum which consists of ideally narrow-banded and fully separated two spectrums. Variations of the probabilistic characteristics for time signals according to frequency and sampling time increments are compared with the reference data to be the probabilistic characteristics such as zero-crossing period, peak period, and irregularity factor obtained from an assumed ideal spectrum. It is proved that the sampling time increment more affects on the probabilistic characteristics than frequency increment. The fatigue damages according to the frequency and sampling time increments are also compared with the ones with minimum increment condition which are thought to be exact fatigue damage. It is concluded that the maximum sampling time increment to obtain reliable time signals should be determined that ratio of applied maximum sampling time increment and minimum period is less than approximately 0.08.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2005.05b
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• pp.1199-1203
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• 2005

Combined sewer overflows(CSOs) are themselves a significant source of water pollution. Therefore, the control of urban drainage for CSOs reduction and receiving water quality protection is needed. Examples in combined sewer systems include downstream storage facilities that detain runoff during periods of high flow and allow the detained water to be conveyed by an interceptor sewer to a centralized treatment plant during periods of low flow. The design of such facilities as stormwater detention storage is highly dependant on the temporal variability of storage capacity available(which is influenced by the duration of interevent dry periods) as well as the infiltration capacity of soil and recovery of depression storage. As a result, a contiunous approach is required to adequately size such facilities. This study for the continuous long-term analysis of urban dranage system used analytical Probabilistic model based on derived probability distribution theory. As an alternative to the modeling of urban drainage system for planning or screening level analysis of runoff control alternatives, this model have evolved that offer much ease and flexibility in terms of computation while considering long-term meteorology. This study presented rainfall and runoff characteristics or the subject area using analytical Probabilistic model. Runoff characteristics manifasted the unique characteristics of the subject area with the infiltration capacity of soil and recovery of depression storage and was examined appropriately by sensitivity analysis. This study presented the average annual COSs and number of COSs when the interceptor capacity is in the range 3xDWF(dry weather flow). Also, calculated the average annual mass of pollutant lost in CSOs using Event Mean Concentration. Finally, this study presented a dicision of storage volume for CSOs reduction and water quality protection.

• Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.279-286
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• 2010

Unbalanced traffic load offered to the nodes making up a path in the network guaranteeing quality-of-service has been known as a main cause deteriorating the capability of the path in admitting traffic flows. Several path load balancing methods have been developed to resolve this problem which used a feedback control scheme that adjusts the delay budget of a flow allocated to each node according to the conditions of available resource in the path. Because of no consideration about the probabilistic characteristics of the service quality, it is impossible for them to prevent in advance a bottleneck on the path which leads to a native restriction in the improvement of the capability being deteriorated. This paper proposes a preventive intra-path load balancing method applicable to the RSVP system which is based on the probabilistic characteristics of the quality-of-service of the offered load. The results of the simulation of the proposed method on a simple evaluation network showed that it provides the gain of 4~22% compared to the legacy one in terms of the number of admitted flows.