Abstract
This paper illustrates a new method for constructing composite power system effective load duration curve(CMELDC) at load points. The main concept of proposed method is that the CMELDC can be obtain from convolution integral processing of the outage probabilistic distribution function of not supplied power and the load duration curve given at each load point. The effective load duration curve (ELDC) at HLI plays an important part in probabilistic production simulation, reliability evaluation, outage cost assessment and power supply margins assesment for power system planning and operation. And also, the CMELDC at HLII will extend the application areas of outage cost assessment and reliability evaluation at each load point. The CMELDC at load points using the Monte Carlo method and a DC load flow constrained LP have already been developed by authors. The effective load concept at HLII, however, has not been introduced sufficiently in last paper although the concept is important. In this paper, the main concept of the effective load at HLII which is proposed in this study is defined in details as the summation of the original load and the probabilistic loads caused by the forced outage of generators and transmission lines at this load point. The outage capacity probabilistic distribution function at HLII can be obtained by combining the not supplied powers and the probabilities of the not supplied powers at this load point. It si also expected that the proposed CMELDC can be applied usefully to research areas such as reliability evaluation, probabilistic production cost simulation and analytical outage cost assessment, etc. at HLII in future. The characteristics and effectiveness of this methodology are illustrated by case study of IEEE-RTS.
