• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.79-96
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• 2013

Exponential distribution plays a key role in engineering reliability and its applications. The exponential failure model has been studied for years. This article introduces two new preliminary test estimators for the reliability function (R(t)) in complete and censored samples from the exponential model with the use of a prior estimation (${\theta}_0$) of the mean (${\theta}$). The proposed preliminary test estimators are studied and compared numerically with the existing estimators. Computer-intensive calculations for bias and relative efficiency show that for, different values of levels of significance and for varying constants involved in the proposed estimators, the proposed estimators are far better than classical and existing estimators.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제29권4호
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• pp.595-611
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• 2016

일반적으로 독성학 또는 약리학에서는 자료를 분석할 때 Hill Model과 같은 비선형 회귀모형을 사용한다. 비선형 회귀모형에서 모수의 추정량과 그것의 불확실성(uncertainty)에 대한 측도의 추정은 오차의 분산 구조에 영향을 받게 된다. 따라서 자료가 등분산인지 혹은 이분산인지에 따라 사용하여야 할 추정 방법이 달라져야 한다. 그러나 일반적으로 자료를 실제로 분석하기 전에는 오차의 분산구조에 대해서 잘 알 수 없다. 그러므로 오차의 분산구조에 로버스트한 추정 방법을 개발하는 것은 중요한 문제이다. 본 논문에서는 예비검정 방법을 기반으로 한 비선형 회귀모형에서의 모수 추정 방법을 제안하였다. 오차 분산의 등분산성에 대한 간단한 예비검정의 결과에 따라 보통 최소제곱 추정(ordinary Least Square Estimation) 방법과 반복 가중 최소제곱 추정(iterative weighted least square estimation) 방법을 사용하는 추정량을 정의하였다. 제안된 추정량은 모의실험 연구를 통하여 기존의 표준적인 추정량들과 그 성능을 비교하였다. 또한 미국의 National Toxicology Program으로부터 얻어진 실제자료를 사용하여 추정 방법들을 비교하였다.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제10권2호
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• pp.619-626
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• 2003

Given a prior guess for the unknown value of P(Y

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• 제16권2호
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• pp.55-79
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• 2015

It is well known that using any additional information in the estimation of unknown parameters with new sample of observations diminishes the sampling units needed and minimizes the risk of new estimators. There are many rational reasons to assure that the existence of additional information in practice and there exists many practical cases in which additional information is available in the form of target value (initial value) about the unknown parameters. This article is described the problem of how the prior initial value about the unknown parameters can be utilized and combined with classical Bayes estimator to get a new combination of Bayes estimator and prior value to improve the properties of the new combination. In this article, two classes of Bayes-shrinkage and preliminary test Bayes-shrinkage estimators are proposed for the scale parameter of exponential distribution. The bias, risk and risk ratio expressions are derived and studied. The performance of the proposed classes of estimators is studied for different choices of constants engaged in the estimators. The comparisons, conclusions and recommendations are demonstrated.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국방재학회 2007년도 정기총회 및 학술발표대회
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• pp.152-155
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• 2007

Efficiency and limitations of HAZUS-MH, a GIS based systematic and informative system developed by FEMA and NIBS for natural hazard loss estimations, are discussed by means of a pilot study in the Korean Peninsular. Gyeongsang-do has been selected for the test after careful reviews of previous studies including historical and modern seismicity in the peninsular. A ShakeMap for the selected scenario earthquake with magnitude 6.7 in Gyeongju area is prepared. Then, any losses due to the scenario event have been estimated using HAZUS. Results of the pilot test show that the study area may experience significant physical, economic and social damages. Detailed study in the future will provide efficient and crucial information to the decision makers and emergency agents to mitigate any disaster posed by natural hazards.

• Anatomy and Cell Biology
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• 제56권1호
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• pp.86-93
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• 2023

Age at death estimation has always been a crucial yet challenging part of identification process in forensic field. The use of human skeletons have long been explored using the principle of macro and micro-architecture change in correlation with increasing age. The clavicle is recommended as the best candidate for accurate age estimation because of its accessibility, time to maturation and minimal effect from weight. Our study applies pre-trained convolutional neural network in order to achieve the most accurate and cost effective age estimation model using clavicular bone. The total of 988 clavicles of Thai population with known age and sex were radiographed using Kodak 9000 Extra-oral Imaging System. The radiographs then went through preprocessing protocol which include region of interest selection and quality assessment. Additional samples were generated using generative adversarial network. The total clavicular images used in this study were 3,999 which were then separated into training and test set, and the test set were subsequently categorized into 7 age groups. GoogLeNet was modified at two layers and fine tuned the parameters. The highest validation accuracy was 89.02% but the test set achieved only 30% accuracy. Our results show that the use of medial clavicular radiographs has a potential in the field of age at death estimation, thus, further study is recommended.

• The Journal of Korean Physical Therapy
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• 제19권1호
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• pp.23-31
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• 2007

Purpose: As a preliminary study, the purpose of this study was to examine the indirect estimation of the lumbar intervertebral disc size by two anthropometric methods, in order to compare these indirect methods with the direct analysis by radiological imaging. Methods: The wrist, elbow, knee, and ankle joint (both right and left) diameters were measured in 52 volunteers, and then intervertebral disc size was calculated using two anthropometric methods (Colombini and modified Colombini). The data were analysed with independent t-test to assess clinical usefulness. Results: When using right and left joint diameter, there was no significant difference in the estimation value of the L4-5 and L5-S1 intervetebral disc sizes. However, the study has shown that male subjects have significantly larger L4-5 and L5-S1 intervertebral disc sizes, compared with those of female subjects. In addition, disc sizes calculated by Colombini's formula were significantly larger than modified Colombini's formula. Conclusion: The indirect estimation of the intervertebral disc size by anthropometric method can be considered as a clinically useful method. However, further study should be conducted to compare anthropometric values with other radiological imaging.

• 천문학회보
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• 제45권1호
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• pp.51.3-52
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• 2020

We present the status of the development of a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) parameter estimation (PE) pipeline for compact binary coalescences (CBCs) with the Japanese KAGRA gravitational-wave (GW) detector. The pipeline is included in the KAGRA Algorithm Library (KAGALI). Basic functionalities are benchmarked from the LIGO Algorithm Library (LALSuite) but the KAGRA MCMC PE pipeline will provide a simpler, memory-efficient pipeline to estimate physical parameters from gravitational waves emitted from compact binaries consisting of black holes or neutron stars. Applying inspiral-merge-ringdown and inspiral waveforms, we performed simulations of various black hole binaries, we performed the code sanity check and performance test. In this talk, we present the situation of GW observation with the Covid-19 pandemic. In addition to preliminary PE results with the KAGALI MCMC PE pipeline, we discuss how we can optimize a CBC PE pipeline toward the next observation run.

• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제20권3호
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• pp.595-628
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• 2011

본 연구는 한국개발연구원의 예비타당성조사에서 문화 과학 시설 등의 비정형 사업에 대한 편익 평가의 기법으로 활용도가 커지고 있는 CVM의 분석체계를 고찰하고 개선과제를 제시하였다. CVM의 설계에서 시장영역, 즉 목표모집단의 설정, 소득세라는 지불수단, 5년간 연단위로 한정하는 지불 방법, 저항응답의 사유 등에 대해서는 추가적인 논의가 필요하고, CVM의 설계에서 편의를 줄일 수 있는 전문가 검토, 표적집단조사, 사전조사, 본조사가 운영되도록 하여야 한다. 한편 CVM의 지불의사 유도 방법으로 활용되고 있는 단일 및 이중 양분선택형 질문방식에 의한 지불의사 유도 방법이 일반적이지만, 이 모형들과 관련된 쟁점에 대한 검토와 더불어 이외의 모형에 대해서도 검토하는 작업이 필요하다. WTP 함수 추정에 가정하고 있는 특정 분포 가정을 다양화하여 WTP의 변동성을 검토하고, 모수적 분포 이외에 비모수적 기법을 활용하여 WTP 함수를 추정하는 연구가 필요한 시점이다. 아울러 0의 지불의사 문제와 저항응답을 처리하기 위한 다양한 시도가 필요하며, 지불거부여부를 제시금액 이전에 제시하는 등의 질문 순서의 변화 등을 통한 지불거부자 파악 과정에서 발생하는 편의를 회피하는 노력 등도 검토되어야 한다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제52권11호
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• pp.2678-2685
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• 2020

The pipe bends and elbows in nuclear power plants (NPPs) are vulnerable to degradation mechanisms and can cause wall-thinning defects. As it is difficult to detect both the defects generated inside the wall-thinned pipes and the preliminary signs, the wall-thinning defects should be accurately estimated to maintain the integrity of NPPs. This paper proposes a deep fuzzy neural network (DFNN) method and estimates the collapse moment of wall-thinned pipe bends and elbows. The proposed model has a simplified structure in which the fuzzy neural network module is repeatedly connected, and it is optimized using the least squares method and genetic algorithm. Numerical data obtained through simulations on the pipe bends and elbows with extrados, intrados, and crown defects were applied to the DFNN model to estimate the collapse moment. The acquired databases were divided into training, optimization, and test datasets and used to train and verify the estimation model. Consequently, the relative root mean square (RMS) errors of the estimated collapse moment at all the defect locations were within 0.25% for the test data. Such a low RMS error indicates that the DFNN model is accurate in estimating the collapse moment for wall-thinned pipe bends and elbows.