• Title/Summary/Keyword: predictive method

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Clinical Meaning of INNO-LiPA Test in the Diagnosis of Rifampin Resistant Tuberculosis (Rifampin 내성 결핵의 진단에서 INNO-LiPA 검사법의 임상적 의미)

  • Chang, Yoon Soo;Kim, Young;Lee, Chang Youl;Choi, Jong Rak;Kim, Hyung Jung;Ahn, Chul Min;Kim, Sung Kyu
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.55 no.4
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    • pp.344-352
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    • 2003
  • Background : The prevalence of multidrug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB), resistant to isoniazid (INH) and rifampin (RFP), was 5.3% worldwide in 1995 and its increment has raised important public health problems. Resistance to RFP, one of the key drugs in the treatment of tuberculosis, results in grim clinical outcome. Recently rapid detection of RFP-resistant mutations in rpoB gene based on PCR method has become available. This study evaluated the prevalence of RFP resistance in first diagnosed, treatment failure, and recurred patients using INNO-LiPA test, and compared the results of INNO-LiPA with those of conventional mycobacterial drug susceptibility test. Methods : Forty-six patients, who were diagnosed of pulmonary tuberculosis and had revealed positive sputum AFB smear, were enrolled in this study from 1998 to 2002. The cases were classified as one three groups; first diagnosed, treatment failure, or recurred. RFP resistance was studied using an INNO-LiPA Rif. TB kit and compared with that obtained from drug susceptibility based on M. tuberculosis culture study. Results : Twenty-one out of 46 patients were enrolled under first diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis, 17 under treatment failure with first line drugs, and 8 under recurrence. The positive and negative predictive values of INNO-LiPA test in diagnosis in RFP resistant tuberculosis compared with conventional mycobacterial drug susceptibility test were 85.7% and 76.0%, respectively. INNO-LiPA result revealed rpoB gene mutation in 20 (80.0%) out of 25 patients who were diagnosed as treatment failure or recurrence, but in only 4 (19.0%) out of 21 patients who were first diagnosed as pulmonary tuberculosis. Conclusion : This study showed that RFP resistance could be diagnosed rapidly and accurately using INNO-LiPA test and that this test might be helpful for choosing second line anti-mycobacterial drugs. It might be of great help in clinical diagnosis and decision when used in complimentarily with drug susceptibility test based on M. tuberculosis culture.

Relationships between Meteorological Factors and Growth and Yield of Alisma plantago L. in Seungju Area (승주지방(昇州地方)에서 기상요인(氣象要因)과 택사(澤瀉) 생육(生育) 및 수량(收量)과의 관계(關係))

  • Kwon, Byung-Sun;Lim, June-Taeg;Chung, Dong-Hee;Hwang, Jong-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Medicinal Crop Science
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.7-13
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    • 1994
  • This study was conducted to investigate the relationships between yearly variations of climatic factors and yearly variations of productivity in Alisma plantago L. In addition, correlation coefficients among yield and yield components were estimated. The data of yield and yield components were collected from the Statistical Year Book of Seungju province, Reserach Report of Seungju Extension Station of Rural Development Administration, and farmers for 10 years from 1983 to 1992. The meteorological data gathered at the Seungju Weather Station for the same period were used to find out the relationships between climatic factors and productivity. Yearly variation of the amount of precipitation in October and the minimum temperature in November were large with coefficients of variation(C.V.) of 106.44, 144.08%, respectively, but the variation of the average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature from July to September were relatively small. Fresh weight and dry weight of roots vary greatly with C. V. of 30.62, 31.85%, respectivly. Plant height and stem length show more or less small C. V. of 5.51, 6. 26%, respectively and leaf width, leaf length, number of stems and root diameter show still less variation. Correlation coefficients between maximum temperature in November and plant height, stem diamter, number of stems, root diamter and dry weight of roots are positively significant at the 5% level. There are high signficant positive correlations observed, between yield and yield components. The maximum temperature would be used as a predictive variable for the estimation of dry weight of roots and number of stems. Simple linear regression equations by the least square method are estimated for number of stems $(Y_1)$ and the maximum temperature in November(X) as $Y_1=4.7114+0.5333\;X\;(R^2=0.4410)$, and for dry weight of roots$(Y_2)$ and the maximum temperature in November(X) as $Y_2=55.0405+14.3233\;X\;(R^2=0.4511)$

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Validation of QF-PCR for Rapid Prenatal Diagnosis of Common Chromosomal Aneuploidies in Korea

  • Han, Sung-Hee;Ryu, Jae-Song;An, Jeong-Wook;Park, Ok-Kyoung;Yoon, Hye-Ryoung;Yang, Young-Ho;Lee, Kyoung-Ryul
    • Journal of Genetic Medicine
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.59-66
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    • 2010
  • Purpose: Quantitative fluorescent polymerase chain reaction (QF-PCR) allows for the rapid prenatal diagnosis of common aneuploidies. The main advantages of this assay are its low cost, speed, and automation, allowing for large-scale application. However, despite these advantages, it is not a routine method for prenatal aneuploidy screening in Korea. Our objective in the present study was to validate the performance of QF-PCR using short tandem repeat (STR) markers in a Korean population as a means for rapid prenatal diagnosis. Material and Methods: A QF-PCR assay using an Elucigene kit (Gen-Probe, Abingdon, UK), containing 20 STR markers located on chromosomes 13, 18, 21, X and Y, was performed on 847 amniotic fluid (AF) samples for prenatal aneuploidy screening referred for prenatal aneuploidy screening from 2007 to 2009. The results were then compared to those obtained using conventional cytogenetic analysis. To evaluate the informativity of STR markers, the heterozygosity index of each marker was determined in all the samples. Results: Three autosomes (13, 18, and 21) and X and Y chromosome aneuploidies were detected in 19 cases (2.2%, 19/847) after QF-PCR analysis of the 847 AF samples. Their results are identical to those of conventional cytogenetic analysis, with 100% positive predictive value. However, after cytogenetic analysis, 7 cases (0.8%, 7/847) were found to have 5 balanced and 2 unbalanced chromosomal abnormalities that were not detected by QF-PCR. The STR markers had a slightly low heterozygosity index (average: 0.76) compared to those reported in Caucasians (average: 0.80). Submicroscopic duplication of D13S634 marker, which might be a unique finding in Koreans, was detected in 1.4% (12/847) of the samples in the present study. Conclusion: A QF-PCR assay for prenatal aneuploidy screening was validated in our institution and proved to be efficient and reliable. However, we suggest that each laboratory must perform an independent validation test for each STR marker in order to develop interpretation guidelines of the results and must integrate QF-PCR into the routine cytogenetic laboratory workflow.

Clinical Usefulness of Rapid Antigen Test on the Diagnosis of Influenza (인플루엔자 진단을 위한 신속 항원검사의 유용성)

  • Kim, Jae Seon;Choi, Hyon Joo;Ahn, Young Min;Hwang, Young Ok
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.48 no.12
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    • pp.1348-1353
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    • 2005
  • Purpose : Influenza is a respiratory disease which prevails widely every year and shows high morbidity and mortality among not only chronic invalids and the old, but also among infants and young children. To prevent community-acquired influenza infection, to facilitate prompt antiviral therapy and to avoid unnecessary use of antibiotics, an easy, rapid diagnostic method for the influenza virus is needed. We evaluated a lateral-flow immunoassay(QuickVue Influenza Test), compared to viral culture. Methods : During two consecutive years from Jan. 2004 to June 2004 and from Feb. 2005 to Jan. 2005, 408 patients who were suffering from fever, cough and/or sore throat and myalgia were enrolled in our study. A total of 408 patients were tested with $QuickVue^{(R)}$(Quidel Co., San Diego, USA) influenza rapid antigen test and virus cultures at the same time. Results : Of the 408 patients tested, children who showed positive results at the virus culture numbered 77; among them, 55(71.4 percent) were type A/H3N2 and 22(28.5 percent) were type B. QuickVue influenza test had a sensitivity of 71.4 percent and a specificity of 95.8 percent. The positive and negative predictive values were 79.7 percent and 93.5 percent, respectively. Conclusion : In our study, this test had comparable high sensitivity and high specificity and many advantages, such as being easy to perform and simple to interpret, and showing rapid results. If rapid influenza antigen tests are widely applied in the clinic, we can begin treatment more rapidly and reduce influenza complications and the abuse of antibiotics.

Differences in the Clinical Characteristics of Children with Urinary Tract Infections Based on the Results of $^{99m}Tc$-Dimercaptosuccinic Acid Renal Scanning (요로감염 소아에서 입원 초기 시행한 DMSA 신 스캔 결과에 따른 임상양상의 차이에 대한 연구: DMSA 신 스캔의 임상적 의미)

  • Kim, Dong Ouk;Lee, Sang Min;Lee, Jeong Bong;Ko, Young Bin;Kim, Su Jin
    • Childhood Kidney Diseases
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.110-116
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    • 2013
  • Purpose: The $^{99m}Tc$-Dimercaptosuccinic acid (DMSA) renal scan is used primarily for the diagnosis of renal scarring and acute pyelonephritis in children with urinary tract infections (UTI). This study aimed to evaluate clinical differences based on the positive or negative results of DMSA scans and kidney ultrasonography (US) in pediatric UTI. Method: We retrospectively reviewed 142 pediatric patients with UTI who were admitted to Myongji Hospital from January 2004 to December 2012. We performed a comparative analysis of clinical parameters such as age, sex, white blood cell (WBC) count, neutrophil count, blood urea nitrogen (BUN) level, creatinine (Cr) level, C-reactive protein (CRP) level, and durations of hospitalization and fever, grouped by the results of the DMSA scans and kidney US. Results: The mean age of the patients was $33.8{\pm}48.3$ months, and 78 (55%) were male. Fifty-two patients had abnormal DMSA findings, and 71 patients had abormal kidney US findings (test positive groups). In the DMSA scan positive group, there were significant differences in age, WBC counts, neutrophil counts, CRP level, BUN level, Cr level, hospitalization duration, number of abnormal findings on kidney US, and incidence of vesicoureteral reflux (VUR) compared with the scan negative group. The kidney US positive group had significant differences in age, neutrophil count, CRP level, BUN level, Cr level, hospitalization duration, number of abnormal findings on the DMSA scans, and more frequent VUR compared with the US negative group. Conclusion: Our data suggest that there were no major differences in clinical parameters based on the results of the DMSA scans compared with kidney US in pediatric UTI. However, as kidney US and DMSA scan were performed to predict VUR, the sensitivity and negative predictive value was increased.

Abnormal Water Temperature Prediction Model Near the Korean Peninsula Using LSTM (LSTM을 이용한 한반도 근해 이상수온 예측모델)

  • Choi, Hey Min;Kim, Min-Kyu;Yang, Hyun
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.265-282
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    • 2022
  • Sea surface temperature (SST) is a factor that greatly influences ocean circulation and ecosystems in the Earth system. As global warming causes changes in the SST near the Korean Peninsula, abnormal water temperature phenomena (high water temperature, low water temperature) occurs, causing continuous damage to the marine ecosystem and the fishery industry. Therefore, this study proposes a methodology to predict the SST near the Korean Peninsula and prevent damage by predicting abnormal water temperature phenomena. The study area was set near the Korean Peninsula, and ERA5 data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) was used to utilize SST data at the same time period. As a research method, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) algorithm specialized for time series data prediction among deep learning models was used in consideration of the time series characteristics of SST data. The prediction model predicts the SST near the Korean Peninsula after 1- to 7-days and predicts the high water temperature or low water temperature phenomenon. To evaluate the accuracy of SST prediction, Coefficient of determination (R2), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) indicators were used. The summer (JAS) 1-day prediction result of the prediction model, R2=0.996, RMSE=0.119℃, MAPE=0.352% and the winter (JFM) 1-day prediction result is R2=0.999, RMSE=0.063℃, MAPE=0.646%. Using the predicted SST, the accuracy of abnormal sea surface temperature prediction was evaluated with an F1 Score (F1 Score=0.98 for high water temperature prediction in summer (2021/08/05), F1 Score=1.0 for low water temperature prediction in winter (2021/02/19)). As the prediction period increased, the prediction model showed a tendency to underestimate the SST, which also reduced the accuracy of the abnormal water temperature prediction. Therefore, it is judged that it is necessary to analyze the cause of underestimation of the predictive model in the future and study to improve the prediction accuracy.

Development and Testing of a RIVPACS-type Model to Assess the Ecosystem Health in Korean Streams: A Preliminary Study (저서성 대형무척추동물을 이용한 RIVPACS 유형의 하천생태계 건강성 평가법 국내 하천 적용성)

  • Da-Yeong Lee;Dae-Seong Lee;Joong-Hyuk Min;Young-Seuk Park
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.56 no.1
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    • pp.45-56
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    • 2023
  • In stream ecosystem assessment, RIVPACS, which makes a simple but clear evaluation based on macroinvertebrate community, is widely used. In this study, a preliminary study was conducted to develop a RIVPACS-type model suitable for Korean streams nationwide. Reference streams were classified into two types(upstream and downstream), and a prediction model for macroinvertebrates was developed based on each family. A model for upstream was divided into 7 (train): 3 (test), and that for downstream was made using a leave-one-out method. Variables for the models were selected by non-metric multidimensional scaling, and seven variables were chosen, including elevation, slope, annual average temperature, stream width, forest ratio in land use, riffle ratio in hydrological characteristics, and boulder ratio in substrate composition. Stream order classified 3,224 sites as upstream and downstream, and community compositions of sites were predicted. The prediction was conducted for 30 macroinvertebrate families. Expected (E) and observed fauna (O) were compared using an ASPT biotic index, which is computed by dividing the BMWPK score into the number of families in a community. EQR values (i.e. O/E) for ASPT were used to assess stream condition. Lastly, we compared EQR to BMI, an index that is commonly used in the assessment. In the results, the average observed ASPT was 4.82 (±2.04 SD) and the expected one was 6.30 (±0.79 SD), and the expected ASPT was higher than the observed one. In the comparison between EQR and BMI index, EQR generally showed a higher value than the BMI index.

A study on solar radiation prediction using medium-range weather forecasts (중기예보를 이용한 태양광 일사량 예측 연구)

  • Sujin Park;Hyojeoung Kim;Sahm Kim
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.49-62
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    • 2023
  • Solar energy, which is rapidly increasing in proportion, is being continuously developed and invested. As the installation of new and renewable energy policy green new deal and home solar panels increases, the supply of solar energy in Korea is gradually expanding, and research on accurate demand prediction of power generation is actively underway. In addition, the importance of solar radiation prediction was identified in that solar radiation prediction is acting as a factor that most influences power generation demand prediction. In addition, this study can confirm the biggest difference in that it attempted to predict solar radiation using medium-term forecast weather data not used in previous studies. In this paper, we combined the multi-linear regression model, KNN, random fores, and SVR model and the clustering technique, K-means, to predict solar radiation by hour, by calculating the probability density function for each cluster. Before using medium-term forecast data, mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) were used as indicators to compare model prediction results. The data were converted into daily data according to the medium-term forecast data format from March 1, 2017 to February 28, 2022. As a result of comparing the predictive performance of the model, the method showed the best performance by predicting daily solar radiation with random forest, classifying dates with similar climate factors, and calculating the probability density function of solar radiation by cluster. In addition, when the prediction results were checked after fitting the model to the medium-term forecast data using this methodology, it was confirmed that the prediction error increased by date. This seems to be due to a prediction error in the mid-term forecast weather data. In future studies, among the weather factors that can be used in the mid-term forecast data, studies that add exogenous variables such as precipitation or apply time series clustering techniques should be conducted.

1-month Prediction on Rice Harvest Date in South Korea Based on Dynamically Downscaled Temperature (역학적 규모축소 기온을 이용한 남한지역 벼 수확일 1개월 예측)

  • Jina Hur;Eun-Soon Im;Subin Ha;Yong-Seok Kim;Eung-Sup Kim;Joonlee Lee;Sera Jo;Kyo-Moon Shim;Min-Gu Kang
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.267-275
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    • 2023
  • This study predicted rice harvest date in South Korea using 11-year (2012-2022) hindcasts based on dynamically downscaled 2m air temperature at subseasonal (1-month lead) timescale. To obtain high (5 km) resolution meteorological information over South Korea, global prediction obtained from the NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) is dynamically downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) double-nested modeling system. To estimate rice harvest date, the growing degree days (GDD) is used, which accumulated the daily temperature from the seeding date (1 Jan.) to the reference temperature (1400℃ + 55 days) for harvest. In terms of the maximum (minimum) temperatures, the hindcasts tends to have a cold bias of about 1. 2℃ (0. 1℃) for the rice growth period (May to October) compared to the observation. The harvest date derived from hindcasts (DOY 289) well simulates one from observation (DOY 280), despite a margin of 9 days. The study shows the possibility of obtaining the detailed predictive information for rice harvest date over South Korea based on the dynamical downscaling method.

Development of a Rapid Enrichment Broth for Vibrio parahaemolyticus Using a Predictive Model of Microbial Growth with Response Surface Analysis (미생물 생장 예측모델과 반응표면분석법을 이용한 Vibrio parahaemolyticus의 신속 증균배지 개발)

  • Yeon-Hee Seo;So-Young Lee;Unji Kim;Se-Wook Oh
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.38 no.6
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    • pp.449-456
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    • 2023
  • In this study, we developed Rapid Enrichment Broth for Vibrio parahaemolyticus (REB-V), a broth capable enriching V. parahaemolyticus from 100 CFU/mL to 106 CFU/mL within 6 hours, which greatly facilitates the rapid detection of V. parahaemolyticus. Using a modified Gompertz model and response surface methodology, we optimized supplement sources to rapidly enrich V. parahaemolyticus. The addition of 0.003 g/10 mL of D-(+)-mannose, 0.002 g/10 mL of L-valine, and 0.002 g/10 mL of magnesium sulfate to 2% (w/v) NaCl BPW was the most effective combination of V. parahaemolyticus enrichment. Optimal V. parahaemolyticus culture conditions using REB-V were at pH 7.84 and 37℃. To confirm REB-V culture efficiency compared to 2% (w/v) NaCl BPW, we assessed the amount of enrichment achieved in 7 hours in each medium and extracted DNA samples from each culture every hour. Real-time PCR was performed using the extracted DNA to verify the applicability of this REB-V culture method to molecular diagnosis. V. parahaemolyticus was enriched to 5.452±0.151 Log CFU/mL in 2% (w/v) NaCl BPW in 7 hours, while in REB-V, it reached 7.831±0.323 Log CFU/mL. This confirmed that REB-V enriched V. parahaemolyticus to more than 106 CFU/mL within 6 hours. The enrichment rate of REB-V was faster than that of 2% (w/v) NaCl BPW, and the amount of enrichment within the same time was greater than that of 2% (w/v) NaCl BPW, indicating that REB-V exhibits excellent enrichment efficiency.