• 제목/요약/키워드: predict intervals

검색결과 120건 처리시간 0.032초

한국인에서 Aldehyde Dehydrogenase 2 유전자 변이가 알코올의 신경인지 기능, 정신운동성 수행 및 주관적 반응에 미치는 영향 (Effects of Alcohol on Neurocognitive Function, Psychomotor Performance and Subjective Response in Koreans with Different ALDH2 Genotypes)

  • 신일선;윤진상;김현;윤보현;이훈;정재성;이형영
    • 생물정신의학
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    • 제6권2호
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    • pp.176-188
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    • 1999
  • Objective : The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of alcohol on neurocognitive function, psychomotor performance and subjective response in healthy Korean adults with different ALDH2 genotypes. Method : A total of 24 males, half with active $ALDH2^*1/2^*1$ and the other with inactive $ALDH2^*1/2^*2$, was selected through genotyping using restriction fragment length polymorphism. In a double-blind, placebo-controlled cross-over design, each subject consumed 0.5g/kg dose of alcohol, given as a mixture of 40% vodka and orange juice, and placebo(orange juice) on two separate occasions on an average of weekly intervals. The blood alcohol concentrations(BACs) were measured using a breath analyzer at baseline and at 30, 60 minutes after drinking. P300s were measured at baseline and at 30 minutes after alcohol and placebo intake. Vital signs and psychomotor performance[Critical Flicker Fusion Threshold(CFFT), Choice Reaction Time (CRT), Digit Symbol Substitution(DSS)] were measured at baseline and at 60 minutes after alcohol and placebo intake. Subjective responses were measured at the end of the study. The statistical analysis focused on whether there were any differences between groups with different ALDH2 genotypes. Results : The major results are as follows. 1) BACs in the inactive group were overall equivalent to those in the active group. Only in terms of time, BACs were significantly higher overall at 30 minutes than at 60 minutes after alcohol intake. 2) Pulse rates were significantly increased after alcohol intake compared with placebo, and the increase was greater in the inactive than in the active group. 3) P300 latencies in leads Fz(frontal), Cz(cental) and Pz(parietal) were significantly increased after alcohol intake compared to placebo, and the increase was greater in the inactive than in the active group. P300 amplitudes in leads Cz and Pz were significantly decreased overall after alcohol intake compared to placebo. 4) Compared with placebo, alcohol produced significant effect on the psychomotor performance : impairment in the inactive group, improvement in the active group. 5) Compared with placebo, alcohol significantly induced a negative or an intense effect on the subjective responses in the inactive group, but little negative and even a somewhat positive effect in the active group. Conclusions : These results suggest that ALDH isozyme variance might be an important factor to determine the effects of acute dose of alcohol on the various psychobehavioural functions and also to determine the alcohol use pattern and to predict the future development of alcohol overuse and/or abuse.

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검진 기관에서의 선별 유방촬영술 시행에 따른 연령 제한의 필요성에 대한 연구 (A Study on the Necessity of an Age Limitation in Screening Mammography)

  • 윤하얀;이춘미;안의경;김용환
    • 대한디지털의료영상학회논문지
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    • 제12권1호
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    • pp.33-41
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    • 2010
  • National Cancer Screening Project and Korean Society of Breast Imaging recommend that breast cancer screening should be performed on those aged 40 and above. Nevertheless, this recommendation is usually ignored by a number of medical institutions. The purpose of this study is to emphasize the necessity of an age limitation in screening mammography. Ten institutions were randomly selected and telephone inquiries about patients' age limitation and internal guidelines were set up. The 3,214 women, who underwent screening mammography through 'GE Senography 2000D' in each hospital, were classified into five groups according to age(from 20s to 40s, at intervals of 5). And then, collected data was analyzed by a radiologist in accordance with ACR-BIRADS(American College of Radiology Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System), through which breast parenchymal density and the results of analysis were categorized in order to predict the sensitivity of mammography. Information about craniocaudal-view mammograms was automatically produced by use of GE Senography 2000D, and the average glandular dose was retrospectively analyzed through the program 'Excel 2007.' Two institutions did not set the age limitation. Other seven institutions internally allowed those who wanted to receive mammography regardless of age. Approximately 99% of those aged 20 to 29 were judged as having the dense breast. In those aged 35 to 39, breast parenchymal density tended to be lower, but the fatty breast to increase. In the case of 'category-zero' that does not need additional tests, the rate of 'heterogeneously dense' and 'extremely dense' reached to 83.1% and 15.1% respectively. Regarding dense breasts, there was no sufficient information for image reading. The glandular dose, applied to 3,214, was 1.47mGy on the average. In those aged 20 to 24 who are sensitive to radiation, the average glandular dose indicated 1.59mGy. Those aged 35 and above showed the lowest value, 1.43mGy. In those aged 35 to 39, the breast tended to change from denseness to fattiness. The average glandular dose was lowest in those aged 35 and above, which suggests that screening mammography should be periodically performed on those aged 35 and above in order that breast cancer may be early detected. On the other hand, in those aged less than 35, it is difficult to analyze mammograms due to the high density of breast parenchyma, and also retakes become frequent. In particular, subjects may be exposed to excessive doses. Accordingly, it should be substituted by breast self-examination or clinical breast examination. In case of need, it is advisable to perform ultrasonography.

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Optimal Monitoring Frequency Estimation Using Confidence Intervals for the Temporal Model of a Zooplankton Species Number Based on Operational Taxonomic Units at the Tongyoung Marine Science Station

  • Cho, Hong-Yeon;Kim, Sung;Lee, Youn-Ho;Jung, Gila;Kim, Choong-Gon;Jeong, Dageum;Lee, Yucheol;Kang, Mee-Hye;Kim, Hana;Choi, Hae-Young;Oh, Jina;Myong, Jung-Goo;Choi, Hee-Jung
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • 제39권1호
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    • pp.13-21
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    • 2017
  • Temporal changes in the number of zooplankton species are important information for understanding basic characteristics and species diversity in marine ecosystems. The aim of the present study was to estimate the optimal monitoring frequency (OMF) to guarantee and predict the minimum number of species occurrences for studies concerning marine ecosystems. The OMF is estimated using the temporal number of zooplankton species through bi-weekly monitoring of zooplankton species data according to operational taxonomic units in the Tongyoung coastal sea. The optimal model comprises two terms, a constant (optimal mean) and a cosine function with a one-year period. The confidence interval (CI) range of the model with monitoring frequency was estimated using a bootstrap method. The CI range was used as a reference to estimate the optimal monitoring frequency. In general, the minimum monitoring frequency (numbers per year) directly depends on the target (acceptable) estimation error. When the acceptable error (range of the CI) increases, the monitoring frequency decreases because the large acceptable error signals a rough estimation. If the acceptable error (unit: number value) of the number of the zooplankton species is set to 3, the minimum monitoring frequency (times per year) is 24. The residual distribution of the model followed a normal distribution. This model can be applied for the estimation of the minimal monitoring frequency that satisfies the target error bounds, as this model provides an estimation of the error of the zooplankton species numbers with monitoring frequencies.

MicroRNA-155 Expression has Prognostic Value in Patients with Non-small Cell Lung Cancer and Digestive System Carcinomas

  • Xu, Tong-Peng;Zhu, Can-Hong;Zhang, Jian;Xia, Rui;Wu, Feng-Lei;Han, Liang;Shen, Hua;Liu, Ling-Xiang;Shu, Yong-Qian
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제14권12호
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    • pp.7085-7090
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    • 2013
  • Objective: Published data have shown that microRNAs (miRNAs) could play a potential role as diagnostic and prognostic indicators in cancers. Data for the predictive value of microRNA-155 are inconclusive. The aim of the present analysis was therefore to evaluate the role of miR-155 in prognosis for patients with a variety of carcinomas. Methods: Relevant studies were identified by searching PubMed and EMBASE. Data were extracted from studies comparing overall survival (OS), recurrence-free survival (RFS) or cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with carcinoma with higher miR-155 expression and those with lower levels. The pooled hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of miR-155 for clinical outcome were calculated. Results: A total of 15 studies were included. The pooled hazard ratio (HR) for OS of higher miR-155 expression in cancerous tissue was 1.89 (95% CI: 1.20-2.99, P=0.006), which could markedly predict poorer survival in general cancer. For RFS/CSS, elevated miR-155 was also associated with poor prognosis of cancer (HR=1.50, 95% CI: 1.10-2.05, P=0.01). On subgroup analysis, the pooled HR for OS in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) was 2.09 (95% CI: 0.68-6.41, P > 0.05), but for RFS/CSS was 1.28 (95% CI: 1.05-1.55, P=0.015), with statistical significance; the pooled HRs for OS and RFS/CSS in digestive system neoplasms were 3.04 (95% CI: 1.48-6.24, P=0.003) and 2.61 (95% CI: 1.98-3.42, P<0.05), respectively. Conclusions: The results indicated that the miR-155 expression level plays a prognostic role in patients with cancer, especially NSCLCs and digestive system carcinomas.

p16 - a Possible Surrogate Marker for High-Risk Human Papillomaviruses in Oral Cancer?

  • Sritippho, Thanun;Pongsiriwet, Surawut;Lertprasertsuke, Nirush;Buddhachat, Kittisak;Sastraruji, Thanapat;Iamaroon, Anak
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제17권8호
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    • pp.4049-4057
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    • 2016
  • Background: High-risk human papillomaviruses (HR-HPV), particularly types 16 and 18, have been found to play an important role in head and neck cancer, including oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) and oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). p16, a cell cycle inhibitor, has been postulated as a surrogate marker for HR-HPV, since p16 is aberrantly overexpressed in such lesions, especially in HR-HPV-positive OPSCC. However, p16 as a surrogate marker for HR-HPV infection in cancers of the oral cavity remains controversial. Objective: The objectives of the study were to investigate the expression of p16 and the presence of HR-HPV in OSCC and oral verrucous carcinoma (VC) and to determine if p16 could be used as a surrogate marker for HR-HPV. Materials and Methods: Forty one formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissues of OSCC (n=37) or VC (n=4) with clinical and histopathologic data of each case were collected. Expression of p16 was determined by immunohistochemistry, focusing on both staining intensity and numbers of positive cells. The presence of HPV types 16 and 18 was detected by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Descriptive statistics were employed to describe the demographic, clinical, and histopathologic parameters. Associations between p16 overexpression, HR-HPV and all variables were determined by Fisher's exact test, odds ratios (ORs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). In addition, the use of p16 as a surrogate marker for HR-HPV was analyzed by sensitivity and specificity tests. Results: p16 was overexpressed in 8/37 cases (21.6%) of OSCC and 2/4 cases (50%) of VC. HPV-16 was detected in 4/34 OSCC cases (11.8%) and HPV-18 was detected in 1/34 OSCC cases (2.9%). Co-infection of HPV-16/18 was detected in 1/4 VC cases (25%). Both p16 overexpression and HR-HPV were significantly associated with young patients with both OSCC and VC (p<0.05, OR 20, 95% CI 1.9-211.8; p<0.05, OR 23.3, 95% CI 2.4-229.7, respectively). p16 was able to predict the presence of HPV-16/18 in OSCC with 40% sensitivity and 79.3% specificity and in VC with 100% sensitivity and 66.7% specificity, respectively. Conclusions: p16 overexpression was found in 24.4% of both OSCC and VC. HR-HPV, regardless of type, was detected in 15.8% in cases of OSCC and VC combined. The results of sensitivity and specificity tests suggest that p16 can be used as a surrogate marker for HR-HPV in OSCC and VC.

기후변화가 신갈나무의 적지분포에 미치는 영향 (Effect of Climate Changes on the Distribution of Productive Areas for Quercus mongolica in Korea)

  • 이영근;성주한;천정화;신만용
    • 한국산림과학회지
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    • 제103권4호
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    • pp.605-612
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    • 2014
  • 본 논문은 환경인자를 이용하여 우리나라에 생태권역별로 분포하는 신갈나무의 지위지수 추정식을 개발하고, 기후변화 시나리오를 적용하여 적지면적 및 적지분포의 연도별 변화를 추정하기 위해 수행하였다. 이를 위해 산림입지도와 전자기후도 및 기후변화 시나리오 RCP 4.5와 RCP 8.5를 사용하여 산림생산력에 영향을 미칠 것으로 판단되는 19개의 기후변수를 포함한 총 48개 환경인자를 도출한 후, 최적 조합에 의해 신갈나무의 생태권역별 지위지수 추정식을 개발하였다. 최종 생태권역별 신갈나무의 지위지수 추정식에는 각각 4~6개의 환경인자가 독립변수로 사용되었고, 지위지수 추정식의 설명력을 나타내는 결정계수는 0.36~0.49의 범위에 있는 것으로 분석되었다. 이 추정식은 모형의 평균편의, 정도, 표준오차의 3가지 평가통계량에 근거하여 검증을 실시한 결과 비교적 지위 추정능력이 높은 것으로 판명되었다. 또한 본 연구에서는 생태권역별 신갈나무의 지위지수 추정식과 기후변화 시나리오 RCP 4.5와 RCP 8.5를 연계하여 시간 경과에 따른 신갈나무의 연도별 적지면적 및 적지분포의 변화를 2020년부터 2100년까지 10년 단위로 추정하였다. 그 결과 시간이 경과함에 따라 신갈나무의 적지면적은 감소하는 것으로 나타났으며, 극한 기후변화 시나리오인 RCP 8.5를 적용할 경우 RCP 4.5에 비해 적지의 감소 폭이 훨씬 더 큰 것으로 예측되었다. 본 연구에서 얻어진 결과는 적지적수와 관련된 산림정책 수립에 유용한 정보로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

Genetic Variants of NBS1 Predict Clinical Outcome of Platinum-based Chemotherapy in Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer in Chinese

  • Xu, Jia-Li;Hu, Ling-Min;Huang, Ming-De;Zhao, Wan;Yin, Yong-Mei;Hu, Zhi-Bin;Ma, Hong-Xia;Shen, Hong-Bing;Shu, Yong-Qian
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제13권3호
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    • pp.851-856
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    • 2012
  • Objective: NBS1 plays a key role in the repair of DNA double-strand break (DSB). We conducted this study to investigate the effect of two critical polymorphisms (rs1805794 and rs13312840) in NBS1 on treatment response and prognosis of advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients with platinum-based chemotherapy. Methods: Using TaqMan methods, we genotyped the two polymorphisms in 147 NSCLC patients. Odds ratios (ORs) and their 95% confidential intervals (CIs) were calculated as a measure of difference in the response rate of platinum-based chemotherapy using logistic regression analysis. The Kaplan-Meier and log-rank tests were used to assess the differences in progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Cox proportional hazards model was applied to assess the hazard ratios (HRs) for PFS and OS. Results: Neither of the two polymorphisms was significantly associated with treatment response of platinum-based chemotherapy. However, patients carrying the rs1805794 CC variant genotype had a significantly improved PFS compared to those with GG genotype (16.0 vs. 8.0 months, P = 0.040). Multivariable cox regression analysis further showed that rs1805974 was a significantly favorable prognostic factor for PFS [CC/CG vs. GG: Adjusted HR = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.39-0.99; CC vs. CG/GG: Adjusted HR = 0.56, 95% CI: 0.32-0.97). Similarly, rs13312840 with a small sample size also showed a significant association with PFS (CC vs. CT/TT: Adjusted HR = 25.62, 95% CI: 1.53-428.39). Conclusions: Our findings suggest that NBS1 polymorphisms may be genetic biomarkers for NSCLC prognosis especially PFS with platinum-based chemotherapy in the Chinese population.

Prediction of the Chemical Composition and Fermentation Parameters of Fresh Coarse Italian Ryegrass Haylage using Near Infrared Spectroscopy

  • Kim, Ji Hye;Park, Hyung Soo;Choi, Ki Choon;Lee, Sang Hoon;Lee, Ki-Won
    • 한국초지조사료학회지
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    • 제37권4호
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    • pp.350-357
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    • 2017
  • Near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) is a rapid and accurate method for analyzing the quality of cereals, and dried animal forage. However, one limitation of this method is its inability to measure fermentation parameters in dried and ground samples because they are volatile, and therefore, respectively lost during the drying process. In order to overcome this limitation, in this study, fresh coarse haylage was used to test the potential of NIRS to accurately determine chemical composition and fermentation parameters. Fresh coarse Italian ryegrass haylage samples were scanned at 1 nm intervals over a wavelength range of 680 to 2500 nm, and optical data were recorded as log 1/reflectance. Spectral data, together with first- and second-order derivatives, were analyzed using partial least squares (PLS) multivariate regressions; scatter correction procedures (standard normal variate and detrend) were used in order to reduce the effect of extraneous noise. Optimum calibrations were selected based on their low standard error of cross validation (SECV) values. Further, ratio of performance deviation, obtained by dividing the standard deviation of reference values by SECV values, was used to evaluate the reliability of predictive models. Our results showed that the NIRS method can predict chemical constituents accurately (correlation coefficient of cross validation, $R_{cv}^2$, ranged from 0.76 to 0.97); the exception to this result was crude ash ($R_{cv}^2=0.49$ and RPD = 2.09). Comparison of mathematical treatments for raw spectra showed that second-order derivatives yielded better predictions than first-order derivatives. The best mathematical treatment for DM, ADF, and NDF, respectively was 2, 16, 16, whereas the best mathematical treatment for CP and crude ash, respectively was 2, 8, 8. The calibration models for fermentation parameters had low predictive accuracy for acetic, propionic, and butyric acids (RPD < 2.5). However, pH, and lactic and total acids were predicted with considerable accuracy ($R_{cv}^2$ 0.73 to 0.78; RPD values exceeded 2.5), and the best mathematical treatment for them was 1, 8, 8. Our findings show that, when fresh haylage is used, NIRS-based calibrations are reliable for the prediction of haylage characteristics, and therefore useful for the assessment of the forage quality.

전용부두 계류중인 실습선의 선체거동 해석 및 제어에 관한 연구 (Behavior Analysis and Control of a Moored Training Ship in an Exclusive Wharf)

  • 조익순
    • 해양환경안전학회지
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    • 제23권2호
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    • pp.139-145
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    • 2017
  • 최근 이상적인 자연현상으로 인해 돌풍, 태풍 및 쓰나미 등 비상상황이 자주 발생하고 있고, 이로 인해 항내 계류선박은 선체거동을 미리 예측하여 해석하고, 선체거동을 제어하지 못해 계류선박의 계류시스템이 손상되면 해양사고가 발생할 수 있다. 따라서 계류시스템의 손상이 예상되는 경우 정량적 판단에 의해 항내 계류할 것인지 아니면 항외로 피항할 것인지 결정할 필요가 있다. 본 연구에서는 외력에 의한 계류선박의 거동해석 및 계류시스템 제어를 위해 대학내 전용 부두에 계류중인 실습선을 대상으로 계류안전성을 평가하였다. 계류삭의 최대장력을 분석한 결과, 파주기 12초 및 15초인 경우에는 대부분 허용강도(S.W.L)를 초과하는 것으로 분석되었다. 계선주에 작용하는 최대견인력을 분석한 결과, 해당 위치에 설치된 지 노후화된 소형 계선주에 다수의 계류삭을 체결함으로서 모든 평가 Case에서 계선주 허용규격인 35톤을 초과하는 것으로 분석되었다. 선체동요 및 하역안전성 평가결과 파주기 12초 이상 및 풍속 25노트 조건에서는 Surge 운동의 한계값인 3.0미터를 초과하는 것으로 분석되었다. 그 결과를 토대로 계류시스템 제어를 위한 판단기준이 되는 풍속, 파고 및 파주기 등의 주요 외력조건별 고위험, 위험 및 보통 위험 등 3단계의 리스크 매트릭스(Risk Matrix)를 작성하여, 계류시스템 제어를 위한 판단기준이 되는 위기관리 대응매뉴얼로 활용할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

기후변화 시나리오에 의한 중부지방소나무의 연도별 적지분포 변화 예측 (Predicting the Changes of Yearly Productive Area Distribution for Pinus densiflora in Korea Based on Climate Change Scenarios)

  • 고성윤;성주한;천정화;이영근;신만용
    • 한국농림기상학회지
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    • 제16권1호
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    • pp.72-82
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    • 2014
  • 본 연구는 환경인자를 이용하여 우리나라에 생태권역별로 분포하는 중부지방소나무의 지위지수 추정식을 개발하고 기후변화 시나리오를 적용하여 적지면적 및 적지분포를 추정하기 위해 수행하였다. 이를 위해 산림입지도와 전자기후도 및 기후변화 시나리오 RCP 4.5와 RCP 8.5를 사용하여 산림생산력에 영향을 미칠것으로 판단되는 19개의 기후변수를 포함한 총 48개 환경인자를 도출한 후, 최적 조합에 의해 지위지수 추정식을 개발하였다. 최종 생태권역별 중부지방소나무의 지위지수 추정식에는 각각 5~7개의 환경인자가 독립변수로 사용되었고, 지위지수 추정식의 설명력을 나타내는 결정계수는 0.32~0.46의 범위에 있는 것으로 분석되었다. 이 추정식은 모형의 평균편의, 정도, 표준오차의 3가지 평가통계량에 근거하여 검증을 실시한 결과 비교적 지위 추정능력이 높은 것으로 판명되었다. 또한 본 연구에서는 생태권역별 중부지방소나무의 지위지수 추정식과 기후변화 시나리오 RCP 4.5와 RCP 8.5를 연계하여 시간 경과에 따른 중부지방소나무의 연도별 적지면적 및 적지분포의 변화를 추정하였다.