• 한국데이터정보과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국데이터정보과학회 2005년도 추계학술대회
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• pp.27-34
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• 2005

We consider the problem of estimating the system reliability noninformative priors when both stress and strength follow generalized gamma distributions. We first derive Jeffreys' prior, group ordering reference priors, and matching priors. We investigate the propriety of posterior distributions and provide marginal posterior distributions under those noninformative priors. We also examine whether the reference priors satisfy the probability matching criterion.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제6권1호
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• pp.237-249
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• 1999

It has been issued that the irreconcilability of the classical test for a point null and standard Bayesian formulation for testing such a point null. The infimum of the posterior probability of the null hypothesis is used as measure of evidence against the null hypothesis in Bayesian approach; here the infimum is over the family of priors on the alternative hypotheses which includes all density that are a priori reasonable. For iid observations from a multivariate normal distribution in $\textit{p}$ dimensions with an unknown mean and a covariance matrix propotional to the Identity we consider the difference and the Wolfowitz distance of the distributions of the P-value and the lower bound of the posterior probability over the family of all normal priors. The Wolfowitz distance is interpreted as the average difference of the quantiles of the two distrbutions.

• International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.116-120
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• 2008

Clustering is a method for unsupervised learning. General clustering tools have been depended on statistical methods and machine learning algorithms. One of the popular clustering algorithms based on machine learning is the self organizing map(SOM). SOM is a neural networks model for clustering. SOM and extended SOM have been used in diverse classification and clustering fields such as data mining. But, SOM has had a problem determining optimal number of clusters. In this paper, we propose an improvement of SOM using gap statistic and probability distribution. The gap statistic was introduced to estimate the number of clusters in a dataset. We use gap statistic for settling the problem of SOM. Also, in our research, weights of feature nodes are updated by probability distribution. After complete updating according to prior and posterior distributions, the weights of SOM have probability distributions for optima clustering. To verify improved performance of our work, we make experiments compared with other learning algorithms using simulation data sets.

• 말소리와 음성과학
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• 제6권3호
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• pp.155-164
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• 2014

This paper proposes a new method to determine the recognition units for large vocabulary continuous speech recognition (LVCSR) in Korean by applying unsupervised segmentation and merging. In the proposed method, a text sentence is segmented into morphemes and position information is added to morphemes. Then submorpheme units are obtained by splitting the morpheme units through the maximization of posterior probability terms. The posterior probability terms are computed from the morpheme frequency distribution, the morpheme length distribution, and the morpheme frequency-of-frequency distribution. Finally, the recognition units are obtained by sequentially merging the submorpheme pair with the highest frequency. Computer experiments are conducted using a Korean LVCSR with a 100k word vocabulary and a trigram language model obtained by a 300 million eojeol (word phrase) corpus. The proposed method is shown to reduce the out-of-vocabulary rate to 1.8% and reduce the syllable error rate relatively by 14.0%.

• 한국전기전자재료학회논문지
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• 제30권9호
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• pp.551-557
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• 2017

It is extremely important to improve methodologies for the lifetime assessment of porcelain insulators. While there has been a considerable amount of work regarding the phenomena of lifetime distributions, most of the studies assume that aging distributions follow the Weibull distribution. However, the true underlying distribution is unknown, giving rise to unrealistic inferences, such as parameter estimations. In this article, we review several distributions that are commonly used in reliability and survival analysis, such as the exponential, Weibull, log-normal, and gamma distributions. Some properties, including the characteristics of failure rates of these distributions, are presented. We use a Bayesian approach for model selection and parameter estimation procedures. A well-known measure, called the Bayes factor, is used to find the most plausible model among several contending models. The posterior mean can be used as a parameter estimate for unknown parameters, once a model with the highest posterior probability is selected. Extensive simulation studies are performed to demonstrate our methodologies.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.857-865
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• 2013

집중 호우로 인한 피해가 증가하면서 다양한 기법들을 이용하여 강우량 예측에 대한 관심이 높아졌다. 최근에는 극단분포를 활용하여 강우량을 예측하려는 시도가 늘고 있다. 본 연구에서는 일반화 극단 분포를 활용하여 실제 서울시의 1973년부터 2010년까지 7월달의 사후예측분포를 생성하고, 수치적인 계산을 위해서 MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo)알고리즘을 활용하였다. 이 연구를 통해서 사후예측분포의 점추정값들을 비교하였고 2011년 7월달의 자료와 비교해 봤을 때 집중 호우의 확률이 증가한 것을 알 수 있었다.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제10권3호
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• pp.647-654
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• 2003

Bayesian probability models for finite populations are considered assuming so-called the super-population. We find the posterior distribution of population mean by a new approach, using the concept of pivotal quantity for the small sample case. A large sample theory is also treated throught the concept of asymptotically pivotal quantity.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.141-150
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• 2003

본 논문은 베이즈인자(Bayes factor)를 이용하여 정상(stationary) AR(1)모형의 자기회귀계수에 대해 다중검정하는 방법을 제시한다. 모수들에 대한 사전분포로는 무정보 사전분포(noninformative prior distribution)를 가정한다. 이러한 경우에 통상적으로 사용되는 베이즈인자를 근사없이 정확히 계산하여 각 모형에 대한 사후확률(posterior probability)을 얻는다. 최종적으로 모의실험 자료 및 실제 자료에 적용하여 이론의 결과가 잘 부합되는지를 검토한다.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• 제26권4호
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• pp.477-491
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• 1997

A new predictive classification rule for assigning future cases into one of two multivariate normal population (with unknown normal mixture model) is considered. The development involves calculation of posterior probability of each possible normal-mixture model via a default Bayesian test criterion, called intrinsic Bayes factor, and suggests predictive distribution for future cases to be classified that accounts for model uncertainty by weighting the effect of each model by its posterior probabiliy. In this paper, our interest is focused on constructing the classification rule that takes care of uncertainty about the types of covariance matrices (homogeneity/heterogeneity) involved in the model. For the constructed rule, a Monte Carlo simulation study demonstrates routine application and notes benefits over traditional predictive calssification rule by Geisser (1982).

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• 제28권2호
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• pp.167-182
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• 1999

This article is concerned with the selection of subsets of predictor variables to be included in building the binary response probit regression model. It is based on a Bayesian approach, intended to propose and develop a procedure that uses probabilistic considerations for selecting promising subsets. This procedure reformulates the probit regression setup in a hierarchical normal mixture model by introducing a set of hyperparameters that will be used to identify subset choices. The appropriate posterior probability of each subset of predictor variables is obtained through the Gibbs sampler, which samples indirectly from the multinomial posterior distribution on the set of possible subset choices. Thus, in this procedure, the most promising subset of predictors can be identified as the one with highest posterior probability. To highlight the merit of this procedure a couple of illustrative numerical examples are given.