• Title/Summary/Keyword: possible hazard

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Ground-Motion Prediction Equations based on refined data for dynamic time-history analysis

  • Moghaddam, Salar Arian;Ghafory-Ashtiany, Mohsen;Soghrat, Mohammadreza
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.11 no.5
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    • pp.779-807
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    • 2016
  • Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) are essential tools in seismic hazard analysis. With the introduction of probabilistic approaches for the estimation of seismic response of structures, also known as, performance based earthquake engineering framework; new tasks are defined for response spectrum such as the reference criterion for effective structure-specific selection of ground motions for nonlinear time history analysis. One of the recent efforts to introduce a high quality databank of ground motions besides the corresponding selection scheme based on the broadband spectral consistency is the development of SIMBAD (Selected Input Motions for displacement-Based Assessment and Design), which is designed to improve the reliability of spectral values at all natural periods by removing noise with modern proposed approaches. In this paper, a new global GMPE is proposed by using selected ground motions from SIMBAD to improve the reliability of computed spectral shape indicators. To determine regression coefficients, 204 pairs of horizontal components from 35 earthquakes with magnitude ranging from Mw 5 to Mw 7.1 and epicentral distances lower than 40 km selected from SIMBAD are used. The proposed equation is compared with similar models both qualitatively and quantitatively. After the verification of model by several goodness-of-fit measures, the epsilon values as the spectral shape indicator are computed and the validity of available prediction equations for correlation of the pairs of epsilon values is examined. General consistency between predictions by new model and others, especially, in short periods is confirmed, while, at longer periods, there are meaningful differences between normalized residuals and correlation coefficients between pairs of them estimated by new model and those are computed by other empirical equations. A simple collapse assessment example indicate possible improvement in the correlation between collapse capacity and spectral shape indicators (${\varepsilon}$) up to 20% by selection of a more applicable GMPE for calculation of ${\varepsilon}$.

The Evaluation on the Prediction Ratio of Landslide Hazard Area based on Geospatial Information (공간정보 기반 산사태 발생지역 예측비율 평가)

  • Lee, Geun-Sang;Lee, Ho-Jun;Go, Sin-Young;Cho, Gi-Sung
    • Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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    • v.44 no.2
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    • pp.113-124
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    • 2014
  • Recently landslide occurs frequently by heavy rainfall, therefore there area many studies to analyze the vulnerable district of landslide and forecast the occurrence of landslide. This study analyzed soil characteristics in the occurrence district of landslide and the occurrence possibility of landslide ranked high in well draining soil as the result of frequency ratio according to the characteristics of drainage. Also as the result of frequency ratio of slope derived from DEM data, the occurrence possibility of landslide ranked high in slope range of $20{\sim}40^{\circ}$. And Also as the result of frequency ratio of aspect by geospatial analysis, the occurrence possibility of landslide ranked high in north aspect. Also, it is possible to evaluate the vulnerability of landslide by overlapping frequency ratio of the drainage of soil, slope and aspect. And future prediction ratio of landslide occurrence can be evaluated by performing the analysis and validation process respectively on the subject of the occurrence district of landslide.

Health Risks to Children and Adults Residing in Riverine Environments where Surficial Sediments Contain Metals Generated by Active Gold Mining in Ghana

  • Armah, Frederick Ato;Gyeabour, Elvis Kyere
    • Toxicological Research
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.69-79
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate the current status of metal pollution in the sediment from rivers, lakes, and streams in active gold mining districts in Ghana. Two hundred and fifty surface sediment samples from 99 locations were collected and analyzed for concentrations of As, Hg, Cr, Co, Cu, Fe, Zn, Pb, Cd, Ni, and Mn using inductively coupled plasma-mass spectroscopy (ICP-MS). Metal concentrations were then used to assess the human health risks to resident children and adults in central tendency exposure (CTE) and reasonable maximum exposure (RME) scenarios. The concentrations of Pb, Cd, and As were almost twice the threshold values established by the Hong Kong Interim Sediment Quality Guidelines (ISQG). Hg, Cu, and Cr concentrations in sediment were 14, 20, and 26 times higher than the Canadian Freshwater Sediment Guidelines for these elements. Also, the concentrations of Pb, Cu, Cr, and Hg were 3, 11, 12, and 16 times more than the Australian and New Zealand Environment and Conservation Council (ANZECC) sediment guideline values. The results of the human health risk assessment indicate that for ingestion of sediment under the central tendency exposure (CTE) scenario, the cancer risks for child and adult residents from exposure to As were $4.18{\times}10^{-6}$ and $1.84{\times}10^{-7}$, respectively. This suggests that up to 4 children out of one million equally exposed children would contract cancer if exposed continuously to As over 70 years (the assumed lifetime). The hazard index for child residents following exposure to Cr(VI) in the RME scenario was 4.2. This is greater than the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) threshold of 1, indicating that adverse health effects to children from exposure to Cr(VI) are possible. This study demonstrates the urgent need to control industrial emissions and the severe heavy metal pollution in gold mining environments.

The Strategic Financial Reporting: Evidence from Directors' and Officers' Liability Insurance (전략적 재무보고: 임원배상책임보험제도를 이용한 연구)

  • Choi, Jeong-mi
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.77-84
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    • 2017
  • This study investigates the association between financial reporting strategy and the directors' and officers' liability insurance. Since D&O insurance protects officers and directors against the risks of shareholder litigation, it is possible that, because of moral hazard, managers will be more willing to participate in opportunistic financial reporting such as earnings manipulation when they are covered by a generous D&O insurance policy. This paper examines the association between D&O insurance and financial reporting, specifically whether the purchase of D&O insurance affects earnings manipulation. On the other side, the firms engage earnings management are willing to purchase D&O insurance, this study tests whether earnings manipulation affects D&O purchases using listed firms in Korean stock market from 2006 to 2008. This paper finds that firms with higher discretionary accruals are less likely to purchase D&O insurance implies that managers who are participating in earnings manipulation are not willing to purchase D&O insurance. The relation between discretionary accruals and D&O is significantly negative which indicate D&O insurance purchase does not trigger earnings manipulation rather it alleviates opportunistic reporting behavior.

Reevaluation of Photon Activation Yields of 11C, 13N, and 15O for the Estimation of Activity in Gas and Water Induced by the Operation of Electron Accelerators for Medical Use

  • Masumoto, Kazuyoshi;Matsumura, Hiroshi;Kosako, Kazuaki;Bessho, Kotaro;Toyoda, Akihiro
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.286-290
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    • 2016
  • Background: Activation of air and water in the electron linear accelerator for medical use has not been considered severely. By the new Japanese regulation for protection of radiation hazard, it became indispensable to evaluate of activation of air and water in the accelerator room. The measurement of induced activity in air and water components in the electron energy region of 10 to 20 MeV is very difficult, because this energy region is close to the threshold energy region of photonuclear reactions. Then, we measured the photonuclear reaction yields of $^{13}N$, $^{15}O$, and $^{11}C$ by using the electron linear accelerator. Obtained data were compared with the data calculated by the Monte Carlo method. Materials and Methods: An activation experiment was performed at the Research Center for Electron Photon Science, Tohoku University. Highly purified $SiO_2$, $Si_3N_4$, and carbon disks were irradiated for 10 minutes by bremsstrahlung converted by a tungsten plate. Induced activity from C, N, and O was obtained. Monte Carlo calculation was performed using MCNP5 and AERY (DCHAIN-SP) to simulate the experimental condition. Cross section data were adopted the KAERI dataset. Results and Discussion: In our experiment in hospital, calculated values were not agreed with experimental values. It might be three possible reasons as the cause of this deference, such as irradiation energy, calculation procedure and cross section data. Obtained data of this work, calculated and experimental values were good agreement with each other within one order. In this work, we used KAERI dataset of photonuclear reaction instead of JENDL. Therefore, it was found that the photonuclear cross section data of light elements are most important for yield calculation in these reactions. Conclusion: Further improvement for calculation using a new dataset JENDL/PD-2015 and considering electron energy spreading will be needed.

Multi-sensor Fusion Filter for the Flight Safety System of a Space Launch Vehicle (우주발사체 비행안전시스템을 위한 다중센서 융합필터 구현)

  • Ryu, Seong-Sook;Kim, Jeong-Rae;Song, Yong-Kyu;Ko, Jeong-Hwan;Choi, Kyu-Sung
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.156-165
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    • 2009
  • Threat due to malfunction of space launch vehicles is significant since it is bigger and flights longer range than military missiles or scientific rockets. It is necessary to implement a flight safety system to minimize the possible hazard. Design objective of the tracking filter for the flight safety system is different from conventional tracking filters since estimation reliability is more emphasized than estimation accuracy. In this paper, a fusion tracking filter was implemented for processing multi-sensor data from a space launch vehicle. The filter performance is evaluated by analyzing the error of the estimated position and instantaneous impact point. Also a fault detection algorithm is implemented to guarantee fusion filter's reliability under any sensor failure and verified to maintain stability successfully.

Building GIS Application Model in Support of Tsunami Relief Effort (쓰나미 재난 대응을 위한 GIS 응용모델 구축에 관한 연구)

  • Liyanage, Asha Nilani;Lee, Heewon;Lee, Seok-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.1489-1494
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    • 2013
  • Tsunami happens rarely enough to allow a false sense of security, but when they do occur, there may be just minutes or hours for people to reach a safe location. Natural disasters like tsunami are inevitable and it is almost impossible to fully recoup damages caused by the disasters. However, it is possible to minimize the potential risk by developing early warning strategies. GIS modelling with its geoprocessing and analysis capability can play a crucial role in efficient mitigation and management of disaster. This study aims at developing integrated spatial information system processing model supporting tsunami evacuation action planning using geo-information technology such as GIS. The integration process classified into four phases. And in each phase, required input data and GIS processes are decided. The main effort in minimizing casualties in tsunami disaster is to evacuate people from the hazard area before tsunami strikes by means of either horizontal or vertical evacuation. The study provides essential spatial information for local decision making related with people's evacuation in tsunami-prone areas based on a modeling approach transferable to other coastal areas.

Geographic Information Systems(GIS) Use in Forest Pest Management : A Simulated Study on Mountain Pine Beetle Infestation (지리정보(地理情報)시스템(GIS) 이용(利用)과 산림(山林) 병충해(病蟲害) 관리(管理) : 소나무 좀벌레의 모형적(模型的) 예(例))

  • Lee, Kyu Sung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.78 no.2
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    • pp.168-176
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    • 1989
  • Recent development of geographic information systems(GIS) provides a great deal of potential in handling a variety of spatial data required by forest resource managers. This study is designed to identify a possible GIS application in forest pest management. Several mountain pine beetle risk assessment parameters(stand characteristics, weather conditions, and topographic factor) were spatially analyzed through computer map overlaying operations in order to estimate the hazard level of the pest damage. In addition, the expected infestation route from an initially infected forest stand was located through further may analysis operations(distance measurement and connectivity analysis). Although current GIS technology may have a few limitations in operational situations, the computer based GIS has been proven as an invaluable tool to resource managers by providing flexible spatial data handing capabilities.

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Development of Probabilistic Flood Risk Map Considering Uncertainty of Levee Break (하천제방 붕괴의 불확실성을 고려한 확률론적 홍수위험지도 개발)

  • Nam, Myeong-Jun;Lee, Jae-Young;Lee, Chang-Hee
    • Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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    • v.9 no.11
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    • pp.125-133
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    • 2019
  • In this paper, probabilistic flood risk maps were produced for levee break caused by possible flood scenarios. The results of the previous studies were employed for flood stages corresponding to hydrological extreme event quantified uncertainties and then predicted the location of a levee breach. The breach width was estimated by combining empirical equation considered constant width and numerical modeling considered uncertainties on compound geotechnical component. Accordingly, probabilistic breach outflow was computed and probabilistic inundation map was produced by 100 runs of 2D inundation simulation based on reliability analysis. The final probabilistic flood risk map was produced by combining probabilistic inundation map based on flood hazard mapping methodology. The outcomes of the study would be effective in establishing specified emergency actin plan (EAP) and expect to suggest more economical and stable design index.

Artificial neural network for predicting nuclear power plant dynamic behaviors

  • El-Sefy, M.;Yosri, A.;El-Dakhakhni, W.;Nagasaki, S.;Wiebe, L.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.53 no.10
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    • pp.3275-3285
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    • 2021
  • A Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) is a complex dynamic system-of-systems with highly nonlinear behaviors. In order to control the plant operation under both normal and abnormal conditions, the different systems in NPPs (e.g., the reactor core components, primary and secondary coolant systems) are usually monitored continuously, resulting in very large amounts of data. This situation makes it possible to integrate relevant qualitative and quantitative knowledge with artificial intelligence techniques to provide faster and more accurate behavior predictions, leading to more rapid decisions, based on actual NPP operation data. Data-driven models (DDM) rely on artificial intelligence to learn autonomously based on patterns in data, and they represent alternatives to physics-based models that typically require significant computational resources and might not fully represent the actual operation conditions of an NPP. In this study, a feed-forward backpropagation artificial neural network (ANN) model was trained to simulate the interaction between the reactor core and the primary and secondary coolant systems in a pressurized water reactor. The transients used for model training included perturbations in reactivity, steam valve coefficient, reactor core inlet temperature, and steam generator inlet temperature. Uncertainties of the plant physical parameters and operating conditions were also incorporated in these transients. Eight training functions were adopted during the training stage to develop the most efficient network. The developed ANN model predictions were subsequently tested successfully considering different new transients. Overall, through prompt prediction of NPP behavior under different transients, the study aims at demonstrating the potential of artificial intelligence to empower rapid emergency response planning and risk mitigation strategies.