• Management Science and Financial Engineering
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.49-70
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• 2010

Customer population management models can be classified into three categories: the first category includes the models that analyze the customer population at cohort level; the second one deals with the customer population at aggregate level; the third one has interest in the interactions among the customer populations in the competitive market. Our study proposes a model that can analyze the dynamics of customer population in consumer-durables market at aggregate level. The dynamics of customer population includes the retention curves from the purchase or at a specific duration time, the duration time expectancy at a specific duration time, and customer population growth or decline including net replacement rate, intrinsic rate of increase, and the generation time of customer population. For this study, we adopt mathematical ecology models, redefine them, and restructure interdisciplinary models to analyze the dynamics of customer population at aggregate level. We use the data of previous research on dynamic customer population management at cohort level to compare its results with those of ours and to demonstrate the useful analytical effects which the precious research cannot provide for marketers.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.32-49
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• 1988

The social conditions in Koreas until 1950s were similar to the model phenomena of low level eqilibrium trap which was named by Prof. Nelson, with the continuation of high population growth rate and low economic growth rate. To escape from the trap, Korean government adopted two different policies, one is economic development plans and the other is family planning programs. Theses policies were successful in both increasing the national products and decreasing the population growth rate. In 1985 per capita GNP increased to over two thousand dollars, fertility rate reduced to replacement level(2.1) and unemployment rate was stabilized at 4 percent level. From various prospects, we were successfully escaped from the Malthusian trap and many economists, who studied developed countries, belive that population growth has positive effects on technological progress, economies of scale, specialization, individual attitude on work, and economic growth. Therefore we need to reexamine the anti-natalistic population policy of Korea in this situation.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.139-164
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• 2009

The first demographic transition refers to the historical decline in mortality and fertility, as shown from the 18th Century in several European populations, and continuing present in most developing countries. The end point of the first demographic transition(FDT) was supposed to be a stationary and stable population corresponding with replacement fertility and zero population growth. In addition, households in all parts of the world would converge toward the nuclear and conjugal types, composed of married couples and their offspring. The second demographic transition(SDT), on the other hand, sees no such equilibrium as the end-point. Rather, new developments bring sub-replacement fertility, a multitude of living arrangements other than marriage, and the disconnection between marriage and procreation. Populations would face declining sizes if not complemented by new migrants. Over the last decades birth rates have been on the decline in all countries of the world, and it is estimated that already more than half of he world's population has below replacement level fertility. Measured in terms of the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), currently 34 countries have fertility levels of 1.5 or less. Similarly, Korea has been below lowest-low fertility for eight consecutive years since 2001 and below the replacement level for more than twenty years. In explaining the low fertility in Korea, some researchers explain the low fertility as revenge against a male-dominated society and institution, while others focus the impact of the employment instability. These studies share the basic ideas (spread of individualism, delayed marriage and childbearing, high divorce rate etc.) of a second demographic transition in order to explain the low fertility in Korea.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.79-92
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• 1985

Fertility has been declined since 1966 (see Table 1). This fertility reduction was duely caused by age at first marriage, induced abortion and contraceptive practice which has been largely increased in recent years. Although tbe proximate determinant such as induced abortion, age at marriage and breastfeeding can and do have an effect on fertility, the principal cause of the reduction in fertility in Korea during the fertility transition can be supported by correlation between level of fertility and contraceptive prevalence (See Fig. 4). Taking a regression equation between fertility (TER. Y) and prevalence level (X), the total fertility rate in 1984 was estimated as 1.9 and 2.1 based on lenear and expotential function shown as follow; $Y_1$=5.709-0.0549 X and $Y_2$_______80________ 1+e2.433+0.017X ($R^2$=O. 93) ($R^2$=0. 96) Where $Y_1$ and $Y_2$ denote total fertility rates obtained through two equations respectivelly. The peak of contraceptive prevalence was assumdd as 80 percent which is almost upper limit in human society. On the other hand, an observed value of 1984 fertility level obtained from five month period shows 2.1 which is coincident with logistic fitting after the adjustment of response error assumed around 10 to 20 percent, At any rate, fertility of Korean women will have been reached replacement level (2.1) by 1985.Thus policy for family planning program must be reviewed toward the direction of integrated approach particularly with MCH program inasmuch as fertility in Korea has already shown population replacement level that require more good quality of service in family planning and their There must be an advanced level of fertility in Korea because wide use of contraception and induced life abortion and age at marriage will effect modern fertility which shows up and down trend between 2.1 and 1.5 in general.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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• 2009.05b
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• pp.239-242
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• 2009

As the high-rise building increase due to the gravitation of population to big cities recently, it requires high quality and high performance of Concrete. As a result, people are keenly interested in Meta-kaolin as new admixture favorable from an economic perspective, which has strength and endurance with admixture at the same level like Silica-fume. Accordingly, as to Meta-kaolin, this study was to set by three levels like domestic one, foreign one, and Silica-fume, the water-binding material ratio 25%, and four level substitute like 0, 10, 20, and 30(%) in order to compare and analyze the quality durability of high-concrete according to the substitute of Meta-kaolin applicable with replacement of Silica-fume. As a result of performing experiment it was found that when water-binding material ratio increases, resistance of neutralization, carbonation, salt damage and sulfate decrease, and when replacement ratio of mineral admixture increases, depth of accelerating carbonation gets greater. Also, the combination of SF and MK-B favored resistance to chloride ion penetration better than MK-A, and it was found that when replacement ratio of binding material increases, the resistance to sulphuric acid increases. Therefore, based on this study, it was understood that meta-kaolin is useable in replacement of silicafume.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.182-227
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• 1998

Korean government decided to adopt an explicit population control policy in 1961 and from the following year the establishment and operation of the national family planning programme was included in each of the Five-Year Economic Development Plans that began in 1962. This policy was pursued in the understanding that without proper population control measures korea could not be able to achieve economic development. Korean national family planning programme is characterized by contraceptive target system through public health network with distribution of free contraceptives by family planning field workers and clinical contraceptive services such as IUD, vasectomy and tubaligation at designated clinics by the government. In addition, IE&C activities by the Planned Parenthood Federation of Korea and programme evaluation and research by the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs contributed to the development of the government programme. Between 1960 and mid 1980s the nation's total fertility rate was reduced from 6.0 to population replacement level of 2.1 and thereafter it has been maintained at 1.6 to 1.7 of below replacement level. With a short period of less than three decades fertility transition was completed in Korea. It is estimated that if the current level of below replacement fertility continues, the population in Korea stabilize at around 52.78 million people by the year 2028, and it will begin to decrease thereafter. Under this circumstances, the government adopted new directions and strategies of the population policy in June 1996, focused primarily on population quality and social welfare than on demographic arenas. In spite of over 80 percent of high contraceptive prevalence among married women, high incidence of induced abortions is maintained. Moreover, the prevalence of sex selective induced abortions using procedures to determine the sex of the fetus has resulted in an imbalance in the sex ratio at birth. In order to overcome those problems associated with reproductive health new policy for population quality control and health promotion programme should be highly strengthened in the future.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.763-779
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• 2015

This study estimate the adequate replacement rate of retirement income by income brackets and suggests roles of pension and non-pension income sources to achieve it for each income bracket. Priori research focused on elderly poverty; however, there has been little discussion about an adequate income level for retirement. We calculate an adequate income replacement rate separately for the poor, middle, and high income group as well as the average level of replacement rate for all groups. We also investigate the gap between the adequate income replacement rates and realized rates, and propose roles for each income source to curtail the gap. It is essential to recognize that the adequate income for retirement is unable to be met only by an annuity. To emove the gap, it is vital to utilize non-pension income although annuity is a primary source for retirement. Especially, the public and private pension plays a role to overcome poverty and live affluent in retirement, respectively.

• Physical Therapy Korea
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.93-99
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• 2016

Background: Parametric statistical procedures are typically conducted under the condition in which a sample distribution is statistically identical with its population. In reality, investigators use inferential statistics to estimate parameters based on the sample drawn because population distributions are unknown. The uncertainty of limited data from the sample such as lack of sample size may be a challenge in most rehabilitation studies. Objects: The purpose of this study is to review the bootstrapping method to overcome shortcomings of limited sample size in rehabilitation studies. Methods: Articles were reviewed. Results: Bootstrapping method is a statistical procedure that permits the iterative re-sampling with replacement from a sample when the population distribution is unknown. This statistical procedure is to enhance the representativeness of the population being studied and to determine estimates of the parameters when sample size are too limited to generalize the study outcome to target population. The bootstrapping method would overcome limitations such as type II error resulting from small sample sizes. An application on a typical data of a study represented how to deal with challenges of estimating a parameter from small sample size and enhance the uncertainty with optimal confidence intervals and levels. Conclusion: Bootstrapping method may be an effective statistical procedure reducing the standard error of population parameters under the condition requiring both acceptable confidence intervals and confidence level (i.e., p=.05).

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.116-135
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• 1994

China's population and family planning program has heen successful. Women's fertility as measured by total fertility rate (TFR) has declined from 5.8 in 1970 to 2.3 in 1990, accordingly the annual crude birth rate(CBR) has declined from 34 per thousand in 1970 to 21 per thousand in 1989, and the annual natural growth rate from 2.6 percent in 1970 to 1.4 percent in 1989 (Coale and Chen, 1987; SSB, 1991; Gu, 1994). While this is indeed an astonishing achievement for a developing country to have its fertility down to replacement within a short period, some new issues emerging along with the rapid fertility decline require careful considerations. One of them is the uprising of the sex ratio at birth in China. The 1990 population census reported the sex ratio at birth in China of 113.8 in 1989, which is ohviously much higher than the acceptable level of normal ratio around 106. It has received since then a lot of tention in China and abroad, among demographic professionals and governmental agencies alike (Hull, 1990; Johansson and Nygren, 1991; Xuand Guo, 1991; Tu, 1993; Gu and Xu, 1994; among others). Based on the available demographic data and research results this paper will first have a review of the patterns and trends of sex ratio at birth in China, then turn to the immediate causes of abnormal sex ratio at birth and the determinants of the son preference, followed with a conceptual framework for understanding of the phenomenon, and finally the policy implications and recommendations will be discussed.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.27-34
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• 2024

This study aims to propose an optimal asset allocation that minimizes the risk of insufficient realized replacement rates compared to the OECD average replacement rate. To do this, we set the shortfall risk of replacement rates and calculates an asset allocation plan to minimize this risk based on the period of enrollment, the income level and additional contribution. We consider stocks and deposits as investment assets, using Monte Carlo simulation with a GBM model to generate return distributions for stocks. Our result show that, for individuals with a enrollment period of less than 30 years, participants should invest a minimum of 70-80% of their funds in risky assets to minimize the shortfall risk. However, the proportion of funds that need to be invested in risky assets declines significantly when participants contribute an additional premiums. This effect is particularly pronounced among low-income individuals. Therefore, to achieve OECD average replacement rates, the government needs to incentivize participants to invest more in risky assets, while also providing policies to encourage additional contributions, especially for the low-income population.