• KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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• v.44 no.2
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• pp.149-153
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• 1999

Prediction of rice developmental stage is necessary for proper crop management and a prerequisite for growth simulation as well. The objectives of the present study were to find out the relationship between the plastochrone index(PI) and the developmental index(DVI) estimated by non-parametric phenology model which simulates the duration from seedling emergence(DVI=0) to heading(DVI=l) by employing daily mean air temperature and daylength as predictor variables, and to confirm the correspondency of developmental indice to panicle developmental stages based on this relationship. Four japonica rice cultivars, Kwanakbyeo, Sangpungbyeo, Dongjinbyeo, and Palgumbyeo which range from very early to very late in maturity, were grown by sowing directly in dry paddy field five times at an interval of two weeks. Data for seedling emergence, leaf appearance, differentiation stage of primary rachis branch and heading were collected. The non-parametric phenology model predicted well the duration from seedling emergence to heading with errors of less than three days in all sowings and cultivars. PI was calculated for every leaf appearance and related to the developmental index estimated for corresponding PI. The stepwise polynomial analysis produced highly significant square-rooted cubic or biquadratic equations depending on cultivars, and highly significant square-rooted biquadratic equation for pooled data across cultivars without any considerable reduction in accuracy compared to that for each cultivar. To confirm the applicability of this equation in predicting the panicle developmental stage, DVI at differentiation stage of primary rachis branch primordium was calculated by substituting PI with 82 corresponding to this stage, and the duration reaching this DVI from seedling emergence was estimated. The estimated duration revealed a good agreement with that observed in all sowings and cultivars. The deviations between the estimated and the observed were not greater than three days, and significant difference in accuracy was not found for predicting this developmental stage between those equations derived for each cultivar and for pooled data across all cultivars tested.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.333-339
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• 2015

A thermal time-based phenology model of Kimchi cabbage was developed by using the field observed growth and temperature data for the purpose of accurately predicting heading and harvest dates among diverse cropping systems. In this model the lifecycle of Kimchi cabbage was separated into the growth stage and the heading stage, while the growth amount of each stage was calculated by optimal mathematical functions describing the response curves for different temperature regimes. The parameter for individual functions were derived from the 2012-2014 crop status report collected from seven farms with different cropping systems located in major Kimchi cabbage production area of South Korea (i.e., alpine Gangwon Province for the summer cultivation and coastal plains in Jeonnam Province for the autumn cultivation). For the model validation, we used an independent data set consisting of local temperature data restored by a geospatial correction scheme and observed harvest dates from 17 farms. The results showed that the root mean square error averaged across the location and time period (2012-2014) was 5.3 days for the harvest date. This model is expected to enhance the utilization of the Korea Meteorological Administration's daily temperature data in issuing agrometeorological forecasts for developmental stages of Kimchi cabbage grown widely in South Korea.

• Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.222-230
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• 2020

Temperature-dependent development models for Hydrochara affinis were built to estimate the ecological parameters as fundamental research for monitoring the impact of climate change on rice paddy ecosystems in South Korea. The models predicted the number of lifecycles of H. affinis using the daily mean temperature data collected from four regions (Cheorwon, Dangjin, Buan, Haenam) in different latitudes. The developmental rate of each life stage linearly increased as the temperature rose from 18℃ to 30℃. The goodness-of-fit did not significantly differ between the models of each life stage. Unlike the optimal temperature, the estimated thermal limits of development were considerably different among the models. The number of generations of H. affinis was predicted to be 3.6 in a high-latitude region (Cheorwon), while the models predicted this species to have 4.3 generations in other regions. The results of this study can be useful to provide essential information for estimating climate change effects on lifecycle variations of H. affinis and studies on biodiversity conservation in rice fields.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.34 no.3
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• pp.295-305
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• 2011

Many studies have suggested the positive effects of grazing by large herbivorous mammals on seed dispersal, but little is known about how herbivores could affect the fate of ingested seeds. This study examined the effects of seed ingestion by sika deer (Cervus nippon) on seed fate in a temperate grassland established in an urban park long resided by high densities of sika deer. I compared species composition and seasonal traits of seed abundance and maturity in the grassland community with those in deer fecal pellets. In total, 27 herbaceous species were observed, including the predominant Zoysia japonica. Seed phenology and production differed among the three dominant species (Z. japonica, Digitaria violascens, and Hydrocotyle maritima). Pellets contained at least 26 species of herbaceous seeds, and their abundance differed among species. Of the 26 species, 15 were observed in the vegetation at the study site. The peak of seed abundance in pellets for the dominant species appeared 1 month after the peak of inflorescence production (but most of the inflorescences were immature and susceptible to digestion) and consequently corresponded to the peak of mature inflorescence. Because sika deer are likely to ingest seeds at any maturity stage in the grassland and immature seeds are less hardened, ingested immature seeds can suffer great losses. The results suggested that the survival of germable seeds with great losses of immature seeds may be a factor determining which plant species can be successfully dispersed by herbivores.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.193-200
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• 2008

We obtained quantitative information on leaf unfolding and leaf shedding by observing 45 species of cool temperate deciduous trees in an arboretum over 5 growing seasons. These trees were in leaf (the foliage period) for 207 days on average after 1 April; 50% of leaves had been shed by 192 days after 1 April. Duration from the start of leaf unfolding to 50% leaf shedding was 157 days on average. Leaf unfolding began 35 days on average after 1 April. For leaf unfolding to begin, a$ 51^{\circ}C{\cdot}day$ of cumulated daily mean air temperature above $5^{\circ}C$ from 1 January (modified Kira's warmth index) was needed. Fifty-nine days elapsed between initiation and the final stage of leaf unfolding. The period of net photosynthetic assimilation was 157 days. The species with succeeding- type leaf unfolding associated with the anemochore seed type dominated the early stage of succession, while the species with flush-type leaf unfolding tended to dominate the late stage of succession. Few species were found in regions where late frosts occur after the day when the cumulative temperature for leaf unfolding is achieved. Biological characteristics include time of leaf unfolding, which affects the life history of each species, so that each species occupies its own niche in the stand. We conclude that that leaf phenology, such as timing of leaf unfolding and leaf shedding, is one of the components of each species' ecological characteristics.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.162-169
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• 2016

The agrometeorological reference index means 'the agrometeorological damage possibility' or the possibility of the normal year climate condition to damage the crop cultivation in a certain region. It is a reference used to compare the cultivation risk of a crop by region. The global climate warming is expected to increase the winter temperature. At the same time, the frequency of extreme weather events will also increase. Therefore, people pay attention to the potential of low temperature-induced damages (e.g., frost damage and injury) to fruit trees under the future climate condition. However, simple damage projection based on climate conditions does not help the climate change adaptation in the practical aspect because the climate change affects the phenology of fruit trees as well. This study predicted the phenology of the pear, peach, and apple trees by using the climate change scenarios of major regions. Furthermore, low temperature induced agrometeorological reference indices were calculated based on the effects of temperature on each plant growth stage to predict the damage possibility. It was predicted that the breaking rest would delay more in the future while the bud-burst date and flowering date will be earlier. In Daegu, Jeonju, and Mokpo, the breaking rest delayed more as time passed. The bud-burst date and flowering date of Seoul and Incheon regions were later than other regions. Seoul and Incheon showed a similar pattern, while Daegu and Jeonju revealed a similar pattern. Busan and Mokpo also showed a similar pattern. All regions were safe from the frost damage during the dormancy period. However, plants were vulnerable to frost damage between the breaking rest and the bud-burst period. Regions showed different frost damage patterns between the bud-burst period and the flowering period. During the bud-burst and flowering period, the risk level decreased in general, although the risk of some areas tended to increase.

• Korean journal of applied entomology
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• v.51 no.3
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• pp.207-213
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• 2012

The cryptic mealybug, Pseudococcus cryptus, has been increasingly damaging citrus, particularly those plants grown in plastic greenhouses. This study was conducted to monitor the seasonal phenology of adult male cryptic mealybugs and to determine the timing for control using a sex pheromone trap. Adult males responded to a synthetic sex pheromone and trap color. An increasing number of males were attracted to the traps with increasing concentrations of sex pheromone up to 5 mg. The males occurred annually four times and had three cohorts at a time due to different overwintering developmental stages. After overwintering the adult males began to in mid-late April. A positive correlation was observed between the number of adult males caught in traps and the mean density per twig of all motile stages except first stage nymphs of the cryptic mealybugs. The peak time for the first nymph to occur was estimated from the maximum attraction time of the males, and the cumulative degree days (DD) was 350 DD, similar with the preoviposition period.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.37-47
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• 2023

The black cutworm, Agrotis ipsilon (Hufnagel), is an important crop pest worldwide that feeds more than 80 plant species including cabbage, potato, maize, wheat and bean, and this moth is a typical pest attacking underground parts of crops. It has been known in farm booklets that the larvae of A. ipsilon overwinter in the soil in Korea, but no definitive data exist yet. This study was conducted to evaluate that the specific appearance time of A. ipsilon observed actually in the field could be explained when we assumed that this pest overwinters in a form of larvae or pupae. Degree day-based phenology models were applied for tracking forward or backward to find the predicted developmental stage which developed at a specific stage found in the field. As a result of the analysis, it was confirmed that an initial population could be established in a group that does not overwinter as larvae or pupae in Korea. In other words, the appearance of adults in early March to April could not be explained by the presence of domestic overwintering populations. Populations that overwinter as larvae or pupae in Korea were able to emerge as adults in June to July at the earliest. Therefore, the group of adults appearing in early spring is highly likely to be a population that migrated from outside Korea. Taken together, it was estimated that the colony of A. ipsilon in Korea would be formed by a mixture of a migrant population through long-distance migration and a overwintering population.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.143-149
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• 2007

To certify predictability for the times of phenological stages from cumulative air temperature in springtime, the first times of budding, leafing, flower budding, flowering and deflowering for 14 woody plants were monitored and air temperature was measured from 2005 to 2006 at Namsan. Year day index (YDI) and Nuttonson's Index (Tn) were calculated from daily mean air temperature. Of the 14 woody species, mean coefficient of variation was 0.04 in Robinia pseudo-acacia and 0.09 in Alnus hirsuta. However, mean coefficient of variation was 0.30 in Forsythia koreana and Stephanandra incisa and 0.32 in Zanthoxylum schinifolium. Therefore, the times of each phenological stage could be predicted in the former two species but not in latter three species by two indices. Of the five phenological stages, mean coefficient of variation was the smallest at deflowering time and the largest at budding time. In five phenological stages, mean coefficient of variation of YDI was in the range of $0.11{\sim}0.21$ but that of Tn was in the range of $0.15{\sim}0.26$. Therefore, the former was a better index than the latter. Of the species-phenological stage pair, coefficient of variation of YDI was 0.01 in Acer pseudo-sieboldianum - flower budding and below 0.05 in 11 pairs, whereas the YDIs over 0.40 were 4 pairs comprising of Prunus leveilleana - budding (0.51). Coefficient of variation of Tn was 0.01 in A. hirsuta - budding and below 0.05 in 8 pairs. The Tns over 0.40 were 5 pairs comprising of F. koreana - flower budding (0.66).

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.298-306
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• 2016

Planting date shift is one of the means of adapting to climate change in Kimchi Cabbage growers in major production areas in Korea. This study suggests a method to estimate the potential yield of Kimchi Cabbage based on daily temperature accumulation during the growth period from planting to maturity which is determined by a plant phenology model tuned to Kimchi Cabbage. The phenology model converts any changes in the thermal condition caused by the planting date shift into the heat unit accumulation during the growth period, which can be calculated from daily temperatures. The physiological maturity is estimated by applying this model to a variable development rate function depending either on growth or heading stage. The cabbage yield prediction model (Ahn et al., 2014) calculates the potential yield of summer cabbage by accumulating daily heat units for the growth period. We combined these two models and applied to the 1km resolution climate scenario (2000-2100) based on RCP8.5 for South Korea. Potential yields in the current normal year (2001-2010) and the future normal year (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100) were estimated for each grid cell with the planting dates of July 1, August 1, September 1, and October 1. Based on the results, we divided the whole South Korea into 810 watersheds, and devised a three - dimensional evaluation chart of the time - space - yield that enables the user to easily find the optimal planting date for a given watershed. This method is expected to be useful not only for exploring future new cultivation sites but also for developing cropping systems capable of adaptation to climate change without changing varieties in existing production areas.