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A Hybrid Forecasting Framework based on Case-based Reasoning and Artificial Neural Network (사례기반 추론기법과 인공신경망을 이용한 서비스 수요예측 프레임워크)

  • Hwang, Yousub
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.43-57
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    • 2012
  • To enhance the competitive advantage in a constantly changing business environment, an enterprise management must make the right decision in many business activities based on both internal and external information. Thus, providing accurate information plays a prominent role in management's decision making. Intuitively, historical data can provide a feasible estimate through the forecasting models. Therefore, if the service department can estimate the service quantity for the next period, the service department can then effectively control the inventory of service related resources such as human, parts, and other facilities. In addition, the production department can make load map for improving its product quality. Therefore, obtaining an accurate service forecast most likely appears to be critical to manufacturing companies. Numerous investigations addressing this problem have generally employed statistical methods, such as regression or autoregressive and moving average simulation. However, these methods are only efficient for data with are seasonal or cyclical. If the data are influenced by the special characteristics of product, they are not feasible. In our research, we propose a forecasting framework that predicts service demand of manufacturing organization by combining Case-based reasoning (CBR) and leveraging an unsupervised artificial neural network based clustering analysis (i.e., Self-Organizing Maps; SOM). We believe that this is one of the first attempts at applying unsupervised artificial neural network-based machine-learning techniques in the service forecasting domain. Our proposed approach has several appealing features : (1) We applied CBR and SOM in a new forecasting domain such as service demand forecasting. (2) We proposed our combined approach between CBR and SOM in order to overcome limitations of traditional statistical forecasting methods and We have developed a service forecasting tool based on the proposed approach using an unsupervised artificial neural network and Case-based reasoning. In this research, we conducted an empirical study on a real digital TV manufacturer (i.e., Company A). In addition, we have empirically evaluated the proposed approach and tool using real sales and service related data from digital TV manufacturer. In our empirical experiments, we intend to explore the performance of our proposed service forecasting framework when compared to the performances predicted by other two service forecasting methods; one is traditional CBR based forecasting model and the other is the existing service forecasting model used by Company A. We ran each service forecasting 144 times; each time, input data were randomly sampled for each service forecasting framework. To evaluate accuracy of forecasting results, we used Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as primary performance measure in our experiments. We conducted one-way ANOVA test with the 144 measurements of MAPE for three different service forecasting approaches. For example, the F-ratio of MAPE for three different service forecasting approaches is 67.25 and the p-value is 0.000. This means that the difference between the MAPE of the three different service forecasting approaches is significant at the level of 0.000. Since there is a significant difference among the different service forecasting approaches, we conducted Tukey's HSD post hoc test to determine exactly which means of MAPE are significantly different from which other ones. In terms of MAPE, Tukey's HSD post hoc test grouped the three different service forecasting approaches into three different subsets in the following order: our proposed approach > traditional CBR-based service forecasting approach > the existing forecasting approach used by Company A. Consequently, our empirical experiments show that our proposed approach outperformed the traditional CBR based forecasting model and the existing service forecasting model used by Company A. The rest of this paper is organized as follows. Section 2 provides some research background information such as summary of CBR and SOM. Section 3 presents a hybrid service forecasting framework based on Case-based Reasoning and Self-Organizing Maps, while the empirical evaluation results are summarized in Section 4. Conclusion and future research directions are finally discussed in Section 5.

Respiratory signal analysis of liver cancer patients with respiratory-gated radiation therapy (간암 호흡동조 방사선치료 환자의 호흡신호분석)

  • Kang, dong im;Jung, sang hoon;Kim, chul jong;Park, hee chul;Choi, byung ki
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.23-30
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    • 2015
  • Purpose : External markers respiratory movement measuring device (RPM; Real-time Position Management, Varian Medical System, USA) Liver Cancer Radiation Therapy Respiratory gated with respiratory signal with irradiation time and the actual research by analyzing the respiratory phase with the breathing motion measurement device respiratory tuning evaluate the accuracy of radiation therapy Materials and Methods : May-September 2014 Novalis Tx. (Varian Medical System, USA) and liver cancer radiotherapy using respiratory gated RPM (Duty Cycle 20%, Gating window 40% ~ 60%) of 16 patients who underwent total when recording the analyzed respiratory movement. After the breathing motion of the external markers recorded on the RPM was reconstructed by breathing through the acts phase analysis, for Beam-on Time and Duty Cycle recorded by using the reconstructed phase breathing breathing with RPM gated the prediction accuracy of the radiation treatment analysis and analyzed the correlation between prediction accuracy and Duty Cycle in accordance with the reproducibility of the respiratory movement. Results : Treatment of 16 patients with respiratory cycle during the actual treatment plan was analyzed with an average difference -0.03 seconds (range -0.50 seconds to 0.09 seconds) could not be confirmed statistically significant difference between the two breathing (p = 0.472). The average respiratory period when treatment is 4.02 sec (${\pm}0.71sec$), the average value of the respiratory cycle of the treatment was characterized by a standard deviation 7.43% (range 2.57 to 19.20%). Duty Cycle is that the actual average 16.05% (range 13.78 to 17.41%), average 56.05 got through the acts of the show and then analyzed% (range 39.23 to 75.10%) is planned in respiratory research phase (40% to 60%) in was confirmed. The investigation on the correlation between the ratio Duty Cycle and planned respiratory phase and the standard deviation of the respiratory cycle was analyzed in each -0.156 (p = 0.282) and -0.385 (p = 0.070). Conclusion : This study is to analyze the acts after the breathing motion of the external markers recorded during the actual treatment was confirmed in a reproducible ratios of actual treatment of breathing motion during treatment, and Duty Cycle, planned respiratory gated window. Minimizing an error of the treatment plan using 4DCT and enhance the respiratory training and respiratory signal monitoring for effective treatment it is determined to be necessary.

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The Effect of Long-Term Orthokeratology in Different Age Groups (장기간 굴절교정렌즈 착용자에서 연령군 별 굴절교정효과 비교)

  • Mun, Mi-Young;Lee, Koon-Ja
    • Journal of Korean Ophthalmic Optics Society
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.65-73
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    • 2008
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of age in the response to long-term overnight orthokeratology (OK) lens wearing. Methods: Among volunteers, ninety-five healthy subjects who had no eye diseases and could wear OK contact lens at least for 8 hours every day were divided into three groups children, youngsters and young adults. Unaided logMAR visual acuity, refractive error, apical corneal radius, corneal asphericity and central corneal thickness were measured with different period; before and after one day, one week, two weeks, one month, three months and six months of OK lens wear. Paired student t-test, ANOVA analysis and Pearson correlation were used with a critical p value of 0.05 for statistical analysis. Results: All groups showed statistically significant (p<0.001) improvement in unaided visual acuity, a trend for flattening in the apical corneal radius, decrease in central corneal thickness and less prolate after OK lens wear. The child group showed significantly rapid change (p<0.001) in visual acuity, and apical corneal radius showed that they reached the targeted refractive change earlier compared with youngster and adult groups. The visual effect of OK lens was significantly related with the change in central corneal thickness after long-term OK lens wear, especially in child and youngster group, and central corneal thickness were highly correlated with the targeted refractive change. Conclusions: Visual acuity change is statistically correlated with the central corneal thickness change, which is highly correlated with targeted refractive change in the long-term orthokeratology and younger lens wearers showed a rapid response to OK lens wear, suggesting a reduced epithelial response with increasing age. The results found this study extends our understanding and development in the long-term orthokeratology.

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Technical Efficiency of Medical Resource Supply and Demand (의료자원 공급, 수요의 성과 효율성에 대한 실증분석)

  • Chang, Insu;Ahn, Hyeong Seok;Kim, Brian H.S.
    • Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.3-19
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    • 2018
  • The objective of this study is to observe the efficiency of clinical performance on the supply and demand of medical resources in Korea. For the empirical analysis, we constructed the dataset on age standardized mortality rate, the number of physician, specialist, surgery, medical institution, ratio of general hospitals of 16 provinces in Korea from 2006 to 2013. The panel probability frontier model is employed as an analysis method and considered heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation of the error in panel data. In addition, the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the 16 provinces, unemployment rate, elderly population ratio, GRDP per capita, and ratio of hospitals in comparison to the general hospitals are used to find the effect on the technical efficiency of clinical performance on supply and demand of medical resources. The results are as follows. First, for the clinical performance, the supply side of human resources such as doctors and specialists and the demand side factors such as chronic illness clinic per unit population have a significant influence, respectively. Second, the technical efficiency of clinical performance on the supply and demand of medical resources of each input component was 59-70% in terms of clinical efficiency in each region. Third. estimates of technical efficiency of inputs that affect clinical performance showed a slight increase in all regions during the analysis period, but the increase trend decreased slightly. Fourth, the ratio of the elderly population and GRDP per capita have a positive influence on the technical efficiency of clinical performance on the supply and demand of medical resources. The difference of each efficiency by region is due to the regional differences of the input medical resources and the combination of them and the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the region. It is understood that the differences in technological efficiency due to the complexity of supply and demand of medical resources, demographic structure and economic difference affecting clinical performance by region are different.

Studies on Standard Physical Growth and Development by Age and Body Height in Korean Youth (한국인(韓國人)의 연령(年齡) 및 신장별(身長別)에 따른 표준체격치(標準體格値)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究) -7세(歲)부터 20세(歲)까지의 남여(男女)를 중심(中心)으로-)

  • Ahn, Kwang-Tai;Park, Soon-Young;Park, Yang-Won
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.145-172
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    • 1984
  • In order to assess the physical growth pattern of Korean Youth, the authors measured the body height, body weight, chestgirth and sitting height of 40967 persons (24832 males and 16135 females) from primary schools, middle and high schools and colleges of metropolitan (urban) and rural areas, and calculated the mene, standard deviation, standard error and coefficient variance of the body weight chestgirth, sitting height and various pertinent index by body height to demonstrate the standard physical growth and development by body height of sex and age. The following conclusions were obtained. 1. Physical growth and development: Rapid growth of physical growth in terms of body height has been observed among males in the age $7{\sim}15$ and among female $7{\sim}13$. Growth in terms of body height turned out to be slower among students of higher age by both sexes. The age of cross over between to sexes is between 10 to 13 years where upon girls out grows boys. Maximum annual growth were upon girls out grows boys. Maximum annual growth were both of 6.16cm from 8 to 9 years old and 12 to 13 years old for boys and 7.2cm from 8 to 9 and 6.1cm from 9 to 10 for girls. This indicates that girls enter a rapidly growing stage 2 years earlier than boys. Meanwhile, prominent improvement in body height of national students over period of ten year was noticed. 2. The distribution status of body height by age: The distribution status of body height by age were as follows; 7 year of age: boys-30cm range of body height from 104.0cm to 133.9cm, girls-27cm from 104.0cm to 130.9cm 8 year of age: boys-30cm from 116.0 to 145.9cm girls-33cm from 113.0 to 145.9cm 9 year of age: boys-30cm from 116.0 to 145.9cm girls-33cm from 113.0 to 145.9cm 10 year of age: boys-39cm from 116.0 to 154.9cm girls-39cm from 119.0 to 157.9cm 11 year of age: boys-45cm from 119.0 to 163.9cm girls-39cm from 122.0 to 160.9cm 12 year of age: boys-45cm from 125.0 to 169.9cm girls-42cm from 125.0 to 166.9cm 13 year of age: boys-45cm from 128.0 to 172.9cm girls-42cm from 128.0 to 169.9cm 14 year of age: boys-48cm from 131.0 to 178.9cm girls-36cm from 134.0 to 169.9cm 15 year of age: boys-42cm from 137.0 to 181.9cm girls-33cm from 137.0 to 169.9cm 16 year of age: boys-39cm from 146.0 to 184.9cm girls-30cm from 143.0 to 172.9cm 17 year of age: boys-39cm from 146.0 to 184.9cm girls-27cm from 143.0 to 169.9cm 18 year of age: boys-36cm from 152.0 to 187.9cm girls-27cm from 146.0 to 172.9cm 19 year of age: boys-30cm from 155.0 to 184.9cm girls-24cm from 146.0 to 169.9cm 20 year of age: boys-24cm from 158.0 to 181.9cm girls-l8cm from 149.0 to 166.9cm 3. Standard values of body weight, chest-girth and sitting height by body height of age were found all age groups from 7 to 20 years old and listed in tables from3-a to 16-a. 4. Standard values of relative body weight, relative chestgirth and relative sitting height by body height of age were found all age groups from 7 to 20 years old and listed in tables from 3-b to 16-b. 5. Standard values of physical and nutritional indices (Rohrer index, Kaup index, Vervaeck index and Pelidisi index) by body height of age were found all age groups from 7 to 20 years old and listed in tables from 3-c to 16-c.

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An Assessment of Post-Injection Transmission Measurement for Attenuation Correction With Rotating Pin Sources in Positron Emission Tomography (양전자방출단층촬영(PET)에서 회전 핀선원과 투과 및 방출 동시 영상 방법을 이용한 감쇠보정 방법 특성에 관한 고찰)

  • Lee, J.R.;Choi, Y.;Lee, K.H.;Kim, S.E.;Chi, D.Y.;Shin, S.A.;Kim, B.T.
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.533-540
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    • 1995
  • Attenuation correction is important in producing quantitative positron emission tomography (PET) images. Conventionally, photon attenuation effects are corrected using transmission measurements performed before tracer administration. The pre-injection transmission measurement approach may require a time delay between transmission and emission scans for the tracer studies requiring a long uptake period, about 45 minutes for F-18 deoxyglucose study. The time delay will limit patient throughput and increase the likelihood of patient motion. A technique lot performing simultaneous transmission and emission scans (T+E method) after the tracer injection has been validated. The T+E method substracts the emission counts contaminating the transmission measurements to produce accurate attenuation correction coefficients. This method has been evaluated in experiments using a cylindrical phantom filled with background water (5750 cc) containing $0.4{\mu}Ci/cc$ of F-18 fluoride ion and one insert cylinder (276 cc) containing $4.3{\mu}Ci/cc$. GE $Advance^{TM}$ PET scanner and Ge-68 rotating pin sources for transmission scanning were used for this investigation. Post-injection transmission scan and emission scan were peformed alternatively over time. The error in emission images corrected using post-infection transmission scan to emission images corrected transmission scan was 2.6% at the concentration of $1.0{\mu}Ci/cc$. No obvious differences in image quality and noise were apparent between the two images. The attenuation correction can be accomplished with post-injection transmission measurement using rotating pin sources and this method can significantly shorten the time between transmission and omission scans and thereby reduce the likelihood of patient motion and increase scanning throughput in PET.

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A Study on the Paleomagnetism of Southern Korea since Permian (페름기(紀) 이후(以後) 한국(韓國)의 고지자기(古地磁氣)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Kim, Kwang Ho;Jeong, Bong II
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.67-83
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    • 1986
  • Oriented hand samples were collected from Gobangsan Formation and Nogam Formation in the north of Danyang and south of Yeongchun, from Bansong Group in and around Danyang, from Nampo Group in Chungnam Coalfield, from Gyeongsang Supergroup distributed from Waegwan through Daegu to Gyeongsan and from Daegu to Goryong, and from volcanic flows in Jeongog area and Jeju Island to study the paleomagnetism of southern Korea since Permian. Stepwise alternating field and thermal demagnetization experiments were carried out to determine optimum fields and temperatures. Observed mean paleomagnetic directions are as follows: $D=331.5^{\circ}$, $I=25.1^{\circ}$, $a95=12.8^{\circ}$ for Permian, $D=325.6^{\circ}$, $I=46.1^{\circ}$, $a95=11.8^{\circ}$ for Triassic, $D=313.4^{\circ}$, $I=43.1^{\circ}$, $a95=16.0^{\circ}$ for early Jurassic, $D=41.3^{\circ}$, $I=64.6^{\circ}$, $a95=4.5^{\circ}$ for early Cretaceous, $D=28.3^{\circ}$, $I=58.1^{\circ}$, $a95=2.3^{\circ}$ for late Cretaceous, $D=2.0^{\circ}$, $I=55.8^{\circ}$, $a95=6.6^{\circ}$for Quaternary. To describe the tectonic translocation of southern Korean block, northern Eurasian continental block was used as a reference frame. For each age since Permian the expected northern Eurasian field directions in terms of paleolatitude and declination were calculated. The paleolatitudes of Permian ($13.2^{\circ}N$) and early Jurassic ($25.1^{\circ}N$) obtained from the study area are quite different from those of Permian ($66.0^{\circ}N$) and early Jurassic ($68.1^{\circ}N$) which are expected for northern Eurasia. The declinations of Permian ($331.5^{\circ}$) and early Jurassic ($313.4^{\circ}$) are also quite different from those of the Permian ($56.6^{\circ}$) and the early Jurassic ($47.5^{\circ}$) expected for northern Eurasia. The Cretaceous paleolatitude is similar to the expected within error limit, but the declination for the same period is significantly different from that of the expected for the northern Eurasia. From the above evidences it is suggested that the south Korean land mass had moved from low latitude in Permian to north and sutured to northern continental block since early Jurassic. The relative rotations of early Cretaceous($27.4^{\circ}$) and late Cretaceous($10.8^{\circ}$) to northern Eurasian continent reveal that the Korean land mass might be rotated clockwise in two different times, probably in late Early Cretaceous and in Tertiary.

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Mercury Concentrations of Black-tailed Gull Eggs Depending on the Egg-Laying Order for Marine Environmental Monitoring (연안환경 수은 모니터링용 괭이갈매기 알의 산란순서별 농도 차이)

  • Lee, Jangho;Lee, Jongchun;Jang, Heeyeon;Park, Jong-Hyouk;Choi, Jeong-Heui;Lee, Soo Yong;Shim, Kyuyoung
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.538-552
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    • 2017
  • In this study, total mercury (THg) of Black-tailed Gull (Larus crassirostris) eggs laid on Baengnyeongdo, West Sea of Korea was analyzed in order to compare the THg concentrations of eggs depending on egg-laying order. The first-laid eggs ($mean{\pm}standard$ error, $234.4{\pm}11.2ng/g\;wet$, n=18, t=8.4, p<0.01) significantly had higher THg concentrations than the second-laid eggs ($182.8{\pm}9.1ng/g\;wet$, n=18). Also, the first-laid eggs had higher values in biometrics (length $63.10{\pm}0.49mm$, t=2.4, p<0.05; width $44.51{\pm}0.19mm$, t=4.3, p<0.01; weight $65.53{\pm}0.87g$, t=4.2, p<0.01) than the second-laid eggs (length $62.37{\pm}0.40mm$, width $43.55{\pm}0.17mm$, and weight $62.48{\pm}0.72g$). These differences might be attributed to the amount of food eaten by females relating to males' courtship feeding pattern (males increase courtship feeding rate before the first eggs are laid, and decrease the rate following the laying of the first eggs). Moreover, the lower food intake of females could diminish the quantities of egg albumen that contains a protein binds to most of methylmercury during the period of egg production. Therefore, it is necessary to consistently apply one of egg selection methods (targeted selection (the first-laid egg or the second-laid egg), random selection, and etc.) in one nest for ensuring comparability of mercury concentrations among monitoring sites and monitoring years.

A Study on the Volatility of Global Stock Markets using Markov Regime Switching model (마코브국면전환모형을 이용한 글로벌 주식시장의 변동성에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Kyung-Hee;Kim, Kyung-Soo
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.17-39
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    • 2015
  • This study examined the structural changes and volatility in the global stock markets using a Markov Regime Switching ARCH model developed by the Hamilton and Susmel (1994). Firstly, the US, Italy and Ireland showed that variance in the high volatility regime was more than five times that in the low volatility, while Korea, Russia, India, and Greece exhibited that variance in the high volatility regime was increased more than eight times that in the low. On average, a jump from regime 1 to regime 2 implied roughly three times increased in risk, while the risk during regime 3 was up to almost thirteen times than during regime 1 over the study period. And Korea, the US, India, Italy showed ARCH(1) and ARCH(2) effects, leverage and asymmetric effects. Secondly, 278 days were estimated in the persistence of low volatility regime, indicating that the mean transition probability between volatilities exhibited the highest long-term persistence in Korea. Thirdly, the coefficients appeared to be unstable structural changes and volatility for the stock markets in Chow tests during the Asian, Global and European financial crisis. In addition, 1-Step prediction error tests showed that stock markets were unstable during the Asian crisis of 1997-1998 except for Russia, and the Global crisis of 2007-2008 except for Korea and the European crisis of 2010-2011 except for Korea, the US, Russia and India. N-Step tests exhibited that most of stock markets were unstable during the Asian and Global crisis. There was little change in the Asian crisis in CUSUM tests, while stock markets were stable until the late 2000s except for some countries. Also there were stable and unstable stock markets mixed across countries in CUSUMSQ test during the crises. Fourthly, I confirmed a close relevance of the volatility between Korea and other countries in the stock markets through the likelihood ratio tests. Accordingly, I have identified the episode or events that generated the high volatility in the stock markets for the financial crisis, and for all seven stock markets the significant switch between the volatility regimes implied a considerable change in the market risk. It appeared that the high stock market volatility was related with business recession at the beginning in 1990s. By closely examining the history of political and economical events in the global countries, I found that the results of Lamoureux and Lastrapes (1990) were consistent with those of this paper, indicating there were the structural changes and volatility during the crises and specificly every high volatility regime in SWARCH-L(3,2) student t-model was accompanied by some important policy changes or financial crises in countries or other critical events in the international economy. The sophisticated nonlinear models are needed to further analysis.

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Cartoon Criticism; The subject and the gaze based on Lacan' s theory otherness of vision : focusing on KUBRICK of Kang, Do-Ha (라캉의 시각의 타자성(대상 a)에 근거한 만화비평으로서의 주체와 응시 : 강도하의 큐브릭을 중심으로)

  • Yang, Seung-Kyu
    • Cartoon and Animation Studies
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    • s.26
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    • pp.79-108
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    • 2012
  • This thesis is on the purpose of seeking for the possibility of a mechanism in interpreting, analyzing and criticizing cartoons which are applied to the concept of "the gaze" based on "the otherness of vision", which states a pluralistic visual world. It proves that cartoons are in line with other art works that are the subject to "lack and desire"; the gaze, greets reality and acts as an important criterion of analyzing and criticizing the trend in contemporary art, in which the cartoon expresses the gaze in harmony within its work of art. In this thesis, the artist, Kang Doh-ha structuralized ambiguous and difficult forms of art as he has cumulated experimental minds by working in an indie cartoon plane for a long period of time. Among his works of art, he identified the "invisible world" through his piece "Kubrik". Therefore, he represented: a metaphor and a metonymy, an ambiguously situational expression, an intentional and emotional error, the structure of individuality and integration, and finally tension beyond its meaning through use of 'the gaze' that is both the cause and the subject of a desire in the visible world which Lacan academized when he interpreted and analyzed "Kubrik". The concept of the gaze can be used in a variety of ways to display one another's presence in relation each character, revealing a spot of lack by staring back at readers or audiences and furthermore, to analyze and criticize the hidden side of the art piece by critics. The most important details are the artist's gaze, which is seen in the eyes of the analysis and also his or her criticism of the cartoon, which functions as a metaphoric screen in which the subject himself or herself betrays the law of desires thus enabling the violent and cruel reality to be masked and indulged in plays. This will serve as an element that will lead into an art as well as control the degradation to just a piece of enjoyment with the cartoon remaining only within the visual world.