• Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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• v.43 no.6
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• pp.516-524
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• 2017

Objectives: The annual catch of the common squid Todarodes pacificus in Korean coastal waters has gradually increased since the late 1980s. We investigated the long-term effects of climate variability on the variation in catches of the squid in the offshore fisheries of Korea. Methods: Moving average method, correlation analysis, and regression analysis were used to determine the relationship between the environmental factors and fluctuation in the catch of the squid during the past 30 years (1981- 2010). A ten-year moving average was calculated and used for each variable. Results: Squid catches in Korean coastal waters increased over time, and there were significant variations within every ten years (p < 0.001). Air temperature, atmospheric pressure, and wind grade among the meteorological factors, alongside sea surface temperature (SST) and concentrations of phosphate phosphorous, and nitrite/nitrate nitrogen in the sea water increased and were positively related with the catch size of squid (p < 0.001). However, salinity decreased and was negatively related with the catch size (p < 0.001). The increase in air temperature and SST was almost parallel, although there was a time lag between the two factors. Conclusion: These results suggest that there is a causal association between climate change and squid populations. Climate change, especially ocean warming, appears to have been largely favorable for squid range expansion into Korean seas. Although the expansion may be helpful for the human food supply, the safety of the squid caught should be monitored since the concentrations of phosphorous and nitrogen in the sea water increased, which indicates that Korean seas have grown gradually more polluted.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.44 no.8
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• pp.653-666
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• 2011

The purposes of this study are to suggest flood vulnerability assessment method on climate change with evaluation of this method over the 5 river basins and to present the uncertainty range of assessment using multi-model ensemble scenarios. In this study, the data related to past historical flood events were collected and flood vulnerability index was calculated. The vulnerability assessment were also performed under current climate system. For future climate change scenario, the 39 climate scenarios are obtained from 3 different emission scenarios and 13 GCMs provided by IPCC DDC and 312 hydrology scenarios from 3 hydrological models and 2~3 potential evapotranspiration computation methods for the climate scenarios. Finally, the spatial and temporal changes of flood vulnerability and the range of uncertainty were performed for future S1 (2010~2039), S2 (2040~2069), S3 (2070~2099) period compared to reference S0 (1971~2000) period. The results of this study shows that vulnerable region's were Han and Sumjin, Youngsan river basins under current climate system. Considering the climate scenarios, variability in Nakdong, Gum and Han river basins are large, but Sumjin river basin had little variability due to low basic-stream ability to adaptation.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.62 no.6
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• pp.85-95
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• 2020

According to the standard guidelines of design flood (MLTM, 2012; MOE, 2019), the design flood is calculated based on past precipitation. However, due to climate change, the frequency of extreme rainfall events is increasing. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze future floods' volume by using climate change scenarios. Meanwhile, the standard guideline was revised by MOE (Ministry of Environment) recently. MOE proposed modified Huff distribution and new CN (Curve Number) value of forest and paddy. The objective of this study was to analyze the change of flood volume by applying the modified Huff and newly proposed CN to the probabilistic precipitation based on SSP and RCP scenarios. The probabilistic rainfall under climate change was calculated through RCP 4.5/8.5 scenarios and SSP 245/585 scenarios. HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Engineering Center - Hydrologic Modeling System) was simulated for evaluating the flood volume. When RCP 4.5/8.5 scenario was changed to SSP 245/585 scenario, the average flood volume increased by 627 ㎥/s (15%) and 523 ㎥/s (13%), respectively. By the modified Huff distribution, the flood volume increased by 139 ㎥/s (3.76%) on a 200-yr frequency and 171 ㎥/s (4.05%) on a 500-yr frequency. The newly proposed CN made the future flood value increase by 9.5 ㎥/s (0.30%) on a 200-yr frequency and 8.5 ㎥/s (0.25%) on a 500-yr frequency. The selection of climate change scenario was the biggest factor that made the flood volume to transform. Also, the impact of change in Huff was larger than that of CN about 13-16 times.

• Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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• v.34 no.6
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• pp.503-514
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• 2020

Climate change leads to changes in phenological response and movement of plant habitats. Korea's evergreen broad-leaved forest has widened its distribution area compared for the past 20 years, and the range of its native habitats is moving northward. We analyzed climate indices such as the warmth index, the cold index, the lowest temperature in the coldest month, and the annual average temperature, which are closely related to vegetation distribution, to predict the change in the native habitat of Lauraceae evergreen broad-leaved trees. We also analyzed the change and spatial distribution to identify the habitat climate characteristics of 8 species of Lauraceae evergreen broad-leaved trees distributed in the warm temperate zone in Korea. Moreover, we predicted the natural habitat change in the 21st century according to the climate change scenario (RCP 4.5/8.5), applying the MaxEnt species distribution model. The monthly average climate index of the 8 species of Lauraceae evergreen broad-leaved trees was 116.9±10.8℃ for the temperate index, the cold index 3.9±3.8℃, 1495.7±455.4mm for the annual precipitation, 11.7±3.5 for the humidity index, 14.4±1.1℃ for the annual average temperature, and 1.0±2.1℃ for the lowest temperature of winter. Based on the climate change scenario RCP 4.5, the distribution of the Lauraceae evergreen broad-leaved trees was analyzed to expand to islands of Jeollanam-do and Gyeongsangnam-do, adjacent areas of the west and south coasts, and Goseong, Gangwon-do on the east coast. In the case of the distribution based on the climate change scenario RCP 8.5, it was analyzed that the distribution would expand to all of Jeollanam-do and Gyeongsangnam-do, and most regions except for some parts of Jeollabuk-do, Chungcheongnam-do, Gyeongsangbuk-do, and the capital region. For the conservation of Lauraceae evergreen broad-leaved trees to prepare for climate change, it is necessary to establish standards for conservation plans such as in-situ and ex-situ conservation and analyze various physical and chemical characteristics of native habitats. Moreover, it is necessary to preemptively detect changes such as distribution, migration, and decline of Lauraceae evergreen broad-leaved trees following climate change based on phenological response data based on climate indicators and establish conservation management plans.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.20 no.5
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• pp.747-755
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• 2011

This study was investigated the relationship between the temperature and the mortality of aged (${\geq}65$ yr) during the winter seasons from 1992 to 2007 in Seoul, Korea by utilizing climate data and death records. The study also estimated the future risks by employing the projections of the population in Seoul, Korea and climate change scenario of Korea from 2011 to 2030. The limitation of this study was the impossibility in the prediction of daily mortality counts. Therefore, daily death numbers could be predicted based on the future population projection for Korea and the death records of 2005. The result indicated that risks increased by 0.27%, 0.52%, 0.32% and 0.41% in association with the $1^{\circ}C$ decrease in daily minimum temperature from the mortality counts of total, respiratory, cardiovascular, and cardiorespiratory in the past date while 0.31%, 0.42%, 0.59% and 0.66% in the future. Based on the results obtained from this study, it is concluded that the risk in the future will be higher than the past date although there is an uncertainty in estimating death counts in the future.

• Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.34-40
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• 2015

Studies using stable water vapor isotopes have been recently conducted over the past two decades because of difficulties in analysis and sample collection in the past. Stable water vapor isotope data provide information of the moisture transport from ocean to continent, which are also used to validate an isotope enabled general circulation model for paleoclimate reconstructions. The isotopic compositions of groundwater and water vapor also provide a clue to how moisture moves from soil to atmosphere by evapotranspiration. International Atomic Energy Agency designates the stations over the world to observe the water vapor isotopes. To analyze the water vapor isotopes, a cryogenic sampling method has been used over the past two decades. Recently, two types of laser-based spectroscopy have been developed and remotely sensed data from satellites have the global coverage. In this review, measurements of isotopic compositions of water vapor will be introduced and some studies using the water vapor isotopes will also be introduced. Finally, we will suggest the future study in Korea.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.spc
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• pp.1135-1148
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• 2018

Previous studies on reservoir operation have been assumed that the climate in the future would be similar to that in the past. However, in the presence of climate non-stationarity, Robust Optimization (RO) which finds the feasible solutions under broader uncertainty is necessary. RO improves the existing optimization method by adding a robust term to the objective function that controls the uncertainty inherent due to input data instability. This study proposed Robust-SDP that combines Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) and RO to estimate dam operation rules while coping with climate non-stationarity. The future inflow series that reflect climate non-stationarity were synthetically generated. We then evaluated the capacity of the dam operation rules obtained from the past inflow series based on six evaluation indicators and two decision support schemes. Although Robust-SDP was successful in reducing the incidence of extreme water scarcity events under climate non-stationarity, there was a trade-off between the number of extreme water scarcity events and the water scarcity ratio. Thus, it is proposed that decision-makers choose their optimal rules in reference to the evaluation results and decision support illustrations.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.215-225
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• 2011

During the past decade, the performance-based design method of caisson breakwaters has been developed, which allows a certain damage while maintaining the function of the structure. However, the existing method does not consider the changing coastal environment due to climate change impacts so that the stability of the structure is not guaranteed over the lifetime of the structure. In this paper, a time-dependent performance-based design method is developed, which is able to estimate the expected sliding distance and the probability of failure of a caisson breakwater considering the influence of sea level rise and wave height increase due to climate change. Especially, time-dependent probability of failure is calculated by considering the sea level rise and wave height increase as a function of time. The developed method was applied to the East Breakwater of the Hitachinaka Port which is located on the east coast of Japan. It was shown that the influence of wave height increase is much greater than that of sea level rise, because the magnitude of sea level rise is negligibly small compared with the water depth at the breakwater site. Moreover, investigation was made for the change of caisson width due to climate change impacts, which is the main concern of harbor engineers. The longer the structure lifetime, the greater was the increase of caisson width. The required increase of caisson width of the Hitachinaka breakwater whose width is 22 m at present was about 0.5 m and 1.5 m respectively for parabolic and linear wave height increase due to climate change.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.41-47
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• 2012

This study was carried out to investigate the distribution and their change of Pinus densiflora forests by climate change in Mt. Hallasan. The results showed that the areas of P. densiflora forests of Mt. Hallasan varied by region, with a total area of 1,324.3 ha, concentrated mostly in the region 1,000 m - 1,400 m above sea level. The temperate coniferous forest zone are distributed in the upper part of temperate forest zone composed of deciduous broad-leaved trees. Most of the P. densiflora forests in the lower parts were found not to be spreading because they are located close to the deciduous broad-leaved trees. However, the P. densiflora forests in the Sajebi and Pyeonggwe regions composed of the grasslands and shrub forests were found to be spreading. In addition, the altitude of the P. densiflora forests distribution increased by about 50 m and 90 m in the Sajebi and Pyeonggwe regions, respectively. The spread rate is expected to become faster than in the past due to the rate of climate change. The structure of the vegetation in Mt. Hallasan and the changes in the vegetation due to various factors need to be investigated from a long-term point of view.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.474-480
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• 2016

In this study, formation background of biodiversity and its changes in the process of geologic history, and effects of climate change on biodiversity and human were discussed and the alternatives to reduce the effects of climate change were suggested. Biodiversity is 'the variety of life' and refers collectively to variation at all levels of biological organization. That is, biodiversity encompasses the genes, species and ecosystems and their interactions. It provides the basis for ecosystems and the services on which all people fundamentally depend. Nevertheless, today, biodiversity is increasingly threatened, usually as the result of human activity. Diverse organisms on earth, which are estimated as 10 to 30 million species, are the result of adaptation and evolution to various environments through long history of four billion years since the birth of life. Countlessly many organisms composing biodiversity have specific characteristics, respectively and are interrelated with each other through diverse relationship. Environment of the earth, on which we live, has also created for long years through extensive relationship and interaction of those organisms. We mankind also live through interrelationship with the other organisms as an organism. The man cannot lives without the other organisms around him. Even though so, human beings accelerate mean extinction rate about 1,000 times compared with that of the past for recent several years. We have to conserve biodiversity for plentiful life of our future generation and are responsible for sustainable use of biodiversity. Korea has achieved faster economic growth than any other countries in the world. On the other hand, Korea had hold originally rich biodiversity as it is not only a peninsula country stretched lengthily from north to south but also three sides are surrounded by sea. But they disappeared increasingly in the process of fast economic growth. Korean people have created specific Korean culture by coexistence with nature through a long history of agriculture, forestry, and fishery. But in recent years, the relationship between Korean and nature became far in the processes of introduction of western culture and development of science and technology and specific natural feature born from harmonious combination between nature and culture disappears more and more. Population of Korea is expected to be reduced as contrasted with world population growing continuously. At this time, we need to restore biodiversity damaged in the processes of rapid population growth and economic development in concert with recovery of natural ecosystem due to population decrease. There were grand extinction events of five times since the birth of life on the earth. Modern extinction is very rapid and human activity is major causal factor. In these respects, it is distinguished from the past one. Climate change is real. Biodiversity is very vulnerable to climate change. If organisms did not find a survival method such as 'adaptation through evolution', 'movement to the other place where they can exist', and so on in the changed environment, they would extinct. In this respect, if climate change is continued, biodiversity should be damaged greatly. Furthermore, climate change would also influence on human life and socio-economic environment through change of biodiversity. Therefore, we need to grasp the effects that climate change influences on biodiversity more actively and further to prepare the alternatives to reduce the damage. Change of phenology, change of distribution range including vegetation shift, disharmony of interaction among organisms, reduction of reproduction and growth rates due to odd food chain, degradation of coral reef, and so on are emerged as the effects of climate change on biodiversity. Expansion of infectious disease, reduction of food production, change of cultivation range of crops, change of fishing ground and time, and so on appear as the effects on human. To solve climate change problem, first of all, we need to mitigate climate change by reducing discharge of warming gases. But even though we now stop discharge of warming gases, climate change is expected to be continued for the time being. In this respect, preparing adaptive strategy of climate change can be more realistic. Continuous monitoring to observe the effects of climate change on biodiversity and establishment of monitoring system have to be preceded over all others. Insurance of diverse ecological spaces where biodiversity can establish, assisted migration, and establishment of horizontal network from south to north and vertical one from lowland to upland ecological networks could be recommended as the alternatives to aid adaptation of biodiversity to the changing climate.