Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment (환경영향평가)

Korean Society of Environmental Impact Assessment (한국환경영향평가학회)
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Association between Cold Temperature and Mortality of the Elderly in Seoul, Korea, 1992-2007

서울지역 겨울철 기온과 노인의 사망률간의 관련성 연구(1992년~2007년)

  • Lee, Joung Won (Institute of Environmental and Industrial Medicine, Hanyang University) ;
  • Jeon, Hyung Jin (Institute of Environmental and Industrial Medicine, Hanyang University) ;
  • Cho, Yong Sung (Institute of Environmental and Industrial Medicine, Hanyang University) ;
  • Lee, Cheol Min (Institute of Environmental and Industrial Medicine, Hanyang University) ;
  • Kim, Ki Youn (Institute of Environmental and Industrial Medicine, Hanyang University) ;
  • Kim, Yoon Shin (Institute of Environmental and Industrial Medicine, Hanyang University)
  • 이정원 (한양대학교 환경 및 산업의학연구소) ;
  • 전형진 (한양대학교 환경 및 산업의학연구소) ;
  • 조용성 (한양대학교 환경 및 산업의학연구소) ;
  • 이철민 (한양대학교 환경 및 산업의학연구소) ;
  • 김기연 (한양대학교 환경 및 산업의학연구소) ;
  • 김윤신 (한양대학교 환경 및 산업의학연구소)
  • Received : 2011.08.31
  • Accepted : 2011.09.16
  • Published : 2011.10.31
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Abstract

This study was investigated the relationship between the temperature and the mortality of aged (${\geq}65$ yr) during the winter seasons from 1992 to 2007 in Seoul, Korea by utilizing climate data and death records. The study also estimated the future risks by employing the projections of the population in Seoul, Korea and climate change scenario of Korea from 2011 to 2030. The limitation of this study was the impossibility in the prediction of daily mortality counts. Therefore, daily death numbers could be predicted based on the future population projection for Korea and the death records of 2005. The result indicated that risks increased by 0.27%, 0.52%, 0.32% and 0.41% in association with the $1^{\circ}C$ decrease in daily minimum temperature from the mortality counts of total, respiratory, cardiovascular, and cardiorespiratory in the past date while 0.31%, 0.42%, 0.59% and 0.66% in the future. Based on the results obtained from this study, it is concluded that the risk in the future will be higher than the past date although there is an uncertainty in estimating death counts in the future.

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