• Title/Summary/Keyword: parameter estimation methods

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혼합분포모형의 매개변수 추정방법 비교 (Comparison of Three Parameter Estimation Methods for Mixture Distributions)

  • 신주영;김수영;김태림;허준행
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2017년도 학술발표회
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    • pp.45-45
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    • 2017
  • 상이한 자연현상으로 발생된 자료들은 때때로 통계적으로 다른 특성을 가지는 경우가 있다. 이런 자료들은 다른 두 개 이상의 모집단에서 자료가 발생한 것으로 가정할 수 가 있다. 기존에 널리 사용되어온 분포형 모형의 경우 단일한 모집단으로부터 자료가 발생한다는 가정하에서 개발된 모형들로 위에서 언급한 자료들을 적절히 모의할 수 없다. 이런 상이한 모집단에서 발생된 자료를 모형화 하기 위해서 혼합분포모형(mixture distribution)이 개발되었다. 홍수나 가뭄 등과 같은 극치 사상의 경우 다양한 자연현상들로부터 발생하기에 혼합분포모형을 적용할 경우 보다 정확한 모의가 가능하다. 혼합분포모형은 두 개 이상의 비혼합분포모형들을 가중합하여 만들어진다. 혼합 분포모형의 형태로 인하여 기존의 분포형 모형의 매개변수 추정 모형으로 널리 사용되던 최우도법 (maximum likelihood method), 모멘트법(method of moment), 확률가중모멘트법 (probability weighted moment method) 등을 이용하여 혼합분포모형의 매개변수를 추정하는 것이 용이 하지 않다. 혼합분포모형의 매개변수 추정 방법으로는 Expectation-Maximization (EM) 알고리즘, Meta-Heuristic Maximum Likelihood (MHML) 방법, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) 방법 등이 적용되고 있다. 현재까지 수자원 분야에서 사용되는 극치 자료를 혼합분포모형을 이용하여 모의할 때 매개변수 추정방법에 따른 특성에 대한 연구가 진행되지 않았다. 본 연구에서는 우리나라 연최대강우량 자료를 이용하여 혼합분포모형의 매개변수 추정방법 (EM 알고리즘, MHML 방법, MCMC 방법) 들의 특성들을 비교 분석하였다. 혼합분포모형으로는 Gumbel-Gumbel 혼합분포 모형을 적용하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 향후 혼합분포모형을 이용한 연구에 좋은 기초자료로 사용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

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Mass Interception Fractions and Weathering Half-lives of Iodine-131 and Radiocesium in Leafy Vegetables Observed after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident

  • Tagami, Keiko;Uchida, Shigeo
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • 제46권4호
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    • pp.178-183
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    • 2021
  • Background: This study was carried out to provide environmental transfer parameter values to estimate activity concentrations of these radionuclides in agricultural crops when direct contamination occurred. Materials and Methods: Mass interception fractions (FBs) and weathering half-lives (Tws) of 131I and radiocesium were calculated using openly available monitoring data obtained after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. FB is the ratio between the initial radioactivity concentration of a radionuclide retained by the edible part of the plant (Bq·kg-1 fresh weight [FW]) and the amount of deposited radionuclide in that area (Bq·m-2). Tw values can be calculated using activity concentrations of crops decreased with time after the initial contamination. Results and Discussion: Calculated FB and Tw values for 131I and radiocesium were mostly obtained for leafy vegetables. The analytical results showed that there was no difference of FBs between 131I and radiocesium by t-test; geometric mean values for leafy vegetables cultivated under outdoor conditions were 0.058 and 0.12 m2·kg-1 FW, respectively. Geometric mean Tw value of 131I in leafy vegetables grown under outdoor conditions was 8.6 days, and that of radiocesium was 6.6 days; there was no significant difference between Tw values of these radionuclides by Wilcoxon rank sum test. Conclusion: There was no difference between 131I and radiocesium for FBs and Tws. By using these factors, we would be able to carry out a rough estimation of the activity concentrations of 131I and radiocesium in the edible part of leafy crops when a nuclear accident occurred.

ESTIMATION OF NITROGEN-TO-IRON ABUNDANCE RATIOS FROM LOW-RESOLUTION SPECTRA

  • Kim, Changmin;Lee, Young Sun;Beers, Timothy C.;Masseron, Thomas
    • 천문학회지
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    • 제55권2호
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    • pp.23-36
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    • 2022
  • We present a method to determine nitrogen abundance ratios with respect to iron ([N/Fe]) from molecular CN-band features observed in low-resolution (R ~ 2000) stellar spectra obtained by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and the Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope (LAMOST). Various tests are carried out to check the systematic and random errors of our technique, and the impact of signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios of stellar spectra on the determined [N/Fe]. We find that the uncertainty of our derived [N/Fe] is less than 0.3 dex for S/N ratios larger than 10 in the ranges Teff = [4000, 6000] K, log g = [0.0, 3.5], [Fe/H] = [-3.0, 0.0], [C/Fe] = [-1.0, +4.5], and [N/Fe] = [-1.0, +4.5], the parameter space that we are interested in to identify N-enhanced stars in the Galactic halo. A star-by-star comparison with a sample of stars with [N/Fe] estimates available from the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) also suggests a similar level of uncertainty in our measured [N/Fe], after removing its systematic error. Based on these results, we conclude that our method is able to reproduce [N/Fe] from low-resolution spectroscopic data, with an uncertainty sufficiently small to discover N-rich stars that presumably originated from disrupted Galactic globular clusters.

Estimation of co-variance components, genetic parameters, and genetic trends of reproductive traits in community-based breeding program of Bonga sheep in Ethiopia

  • Areb, Ebadu;Getachew, Tesfaye;Kirmani, MA;G.silase, Tegbaru;Haile, Aynalem
    • Animal Bioscience
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    • 제34권9호
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    • pp.1451-1459
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    • 2021
  • Objective: The objectives of the study were to evaluate reproductive performance and selection response through genetic trend of community-based breeding programs (CBBPs) of Bonga sheep. Methods: Reproduction traits data were collected between 2012 and 2018 from Bonga sheep CBBPs. Phenotypic performance was analyzed using the general linear model procedures of Statistical Analysis System. Genetic parameters were estimated by univariate animal model for age at first lambing (AFL) and repeatability models for lambing interval (LI), litter size (LS), and annual reproductive rate (ARR) traits using restricted maximum likelihood method of WOMBAT. For correlations bivariate animal model was used. Best model was chosen based on likelihood ratio test. The genetic trends were estimated by the weighted regression of the average breeding value of the animals on the year of birth/lambing. Results: The overall least squares mean±standard error of AFL, LI, LS, and ARR were 375±12.5, 284±9.9, 1.45±0.010, and 2.31±0.050, respectively. Direct heritability estimates for AFL, LI, LS, and ARR were 0.07±0.190, 0.06±0.120, 0.18±0.070, and 0.25±0.203, respectively. The low heritability for both AFL and LI showed that these traits respond little to selection programs but rather highly depend on animal management options. The annual genetic gains were -0.0281 days, -0.016 days, -0.0002 lambs and 0.0003 lambs for AFL, LI, LS, and ARR, respectively. Conclusion: Implications of the result to future improvement programs were improving management of animals, conservation of prolific flocks and out scaling the CBBP to get better results.

Estimation of genetic parameters for pork belly traits

  • Seung-Hoon Lee;Sang-Hoon Lee;Hee-Bok Park;Jun-Mo Kim
    • Animal Bioscience
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    • 제36권8호
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    • pp.1156-1166
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    • 2023
  • Objective: Pork belly is a cut of meat with high worldwide demand. However, although the belly is comprised of multiple muscles and fat, unlike the loin muscle, research on their genetic parameters has yet to focus on a representative cut. To use swine breeding, it is necessary to estimate heritability against pork belly traits. Moreover, estimating genetic correlations is needed to identify genetic relationship among the traditional carcass and meat quality traits. This study sought to estimate the heritability of the carcass, belly, and their component traits, as well as the genetic correlations among them, to confirm whether these traits can be improved. Methods: A total of 543 Yorkshire pigs (406 castrated males and 137 females) from 49 sires and 244 dam were used in this study. To estimate genetic parameters, a total of 12 traits such as lean meat production ability, meat quality and pork belly traits were chosen. The heritabilities were estimated by using genome-wide efficient mixed model association software. The statistical model was selected so that farm, carcass weight, sex, and slaughter season were fixed effects. In addition, its genetic parameters were calculated via MTG2 software. Results: The heritability estimates for the 7th belly slice along the whole plate and its components were low to moderate (0.07±0.07 to 0.33±0.07). Moreover, the genetic correlations among the carcass and belly traits were moderate to high (0.28±0.20 to 0.99±0.31). Particularly, the rectus abdominis muscle exhibited a high absolute genetic correlation with the belly and meat quality (0.73±52 to 0.93±0.43). Conclusion: A moderate to high correlation coefficient was obtained based on the genetic parameters. The belly could be genetically improved to contain a larger proportion of muscle regardless of lean meat production ability.

DMT를 이용한 사질토 정지토압계수 평가방법 (A Method Evaluating K0 of Granular Soil using DMT)

  • 최성근;이문주;배경두;이우진
    • 대한토목학회논문집
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    • 제30권4C호
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    • pp.193-200
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    • 2010
  • 본 연구에서는 사질토의 응력이력 효과를 평가하기 위해 정지토압계수($K_0$)를 추정하는 방법을 제안하였다. 제안된 방법은 사질토의 상태정수(${\psi}$)를 매개로 하여 $K_D/K_{0-\psi}$ 관계와 $E_D/{\sigma_m}^'-{\psi}$ 관계를 조합한 $K_D/K_0=\chi(E_D/{\sigma_m}^')^{\delta}$ 의 형태로 표현된다. 챔버에서 수행된 딜라토미터시험 결과에 의하면 본 연구에서 제안된 관계식은 응력이력에 영향을 받지 않는 것을 알 수 있었다. 제안된 방법은 사질토의 정지토압계수 추정 시 딜라토미터 시험결과 만을 이용하는 간편한 방법이며, 콘관입시험과 딜라토미터 시험 결과를 동시에 이용하는 기존의 방법에 비해 간단하고 신뢰성이 높은 장점이 있다.

Evaluation of models for estimation of genetic parameters for post-weaning body measurements and their association with yearling weight in Nellore sheep

  • Satish Kumar Illa;Gangaraju Gollamoori;Sapna Nath
    • Animal Bioscience
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    • 제37권3호
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    • pp.419-427
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    • 2024
  • Objective: The objective of this study was to obtain (co) variance components and genetic parameter estimates for post-weaning body measurements such as body length (BL), height at withers (HW), and chest girth (HG) recorded at six (SBL, SHW, and SHG), nine (NBL, NHW, and NHG) and twelve (YBL, YHW, and YHG) months of age along with yearling weight (YW) in Nellore sheep maintained at livestock research station, Palamaner, Andhra Pradesh, India and also the association among body measurements with YW was studied. Methods: Data on 2,076 Nellore sheep (descended from 75 sires and 522 dams) recorded between 2007 and 2016 (10 years) were utilized in the study. Lambing year, sex of lamb, season of lambing and parity of dam were included in the model as fixed effects and ewe weight was kept as a covariate. Analyses were conducted with six animal models with different combinations of direct and maternal genetic effects using restricted maximum likelihood procedure. Best model for each trait was determined based on Akaike's information criterion. Results: Moderate estimates of direct heritability were obtained for the studied traits viz., BL (0.02 to 0.24), HW (0.31 to 0.49), and CG (0.08 to 0.35) and their corresponding maternal heritability estimates were in the range of 0.00 to 0.07 (BL), 0.13 to 0.17 (HW), and 0.07 to 0.13 (CG), respectively. Positive direct genetic and phenotypic correlations among the traits and they ranged from 0.07 (YBL-YW) to 0.99 (SBL-SHG, SHG-YW, and NBL-YBL) and 0.01 (SBL-YBL) to 0.99 (NBL-NHG), respectively. Further, the genetic correlations among all the body measurements and YW were positive and ranged from 0.07 (YW and YBL) to 0.99 (YW and SHG). Conclusion: There was a strong association of chest girth at six months with YW. Further, it is indicated that moderate improvement of post-weaning body measurements in Nellore sheep would be possible through selection.

지반 조건과 TBM 운영 파라미터를 고려한 디스크 커터 마모 예측 (Prediction of Disk Cutter Wear Considering Ground Conditions and TBM Operation Parameters)

  • 강윤성;고태영
    • 터널과지하공간
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    • 제34권2호
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    • pp.143-153
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    • 2024
  • TBM 공법은 발파 공법에 비해 굴착 중 소음과 진동 수준이 낮고, 안정성이 높은 터널 굴착 공법이며, 전세계적으로 터널 프로젝트에 TBM 공법을 적용하는 사례가 증가하는 추세이다. 디스크 커터는 TBM의 커터헤드에 장착되는 굴착 도구로 지속적으로 막장면 지반과 상호작용하며, 이때 필연적으로 마모가 발생한다. 본 연구에서는 지질 조건과 TBM 운영파라미터, 머신러닝 알고리즘들을 이용하여 디스크 커터 마모를 정량적으로 예측하였다. 디스크커터 마모 예측의 입력변수 중 UCS 데이터의 수가 다른 기계 데이터 및 마모 데이터에 비해 매우 부족하기 때문에, 먼저 TBM 기계 데이터를 이용하여 전체 구간에 대한 UCS 추정을 진행하고, 완성된 전체 데이터로 마모율 계수 예측을 수행하였다. 마모율 계수 예측 모델의 성능을 비교해 본 결과 XGBoost 모델의 성능이 가장 높게 나타났으며, 복잡한 예측 모델의 해석을 위해 SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) 분석을 진행하였다.

SWAT-CUP을 이용한 대청호 유역 장기 유출 유량 보정 및 검증 (Flow Calibration and Validation of Daechung Lake Watershed, Korea Using SWAT-CUP)

  • 이은형;서동일
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제44권9호
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    • pp.711-720
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    • 2011
  • 본 연구에서는 용담댐 하류부터 대청댐상류까지 총 유역면적 3108.29 $km^2$ 유역을 대상으로 SWAT 모델을 적용하여 유출유량모의를 실시하는데 있어서최적의매개변수를추정하는방법을보고하고있다. SWAT 모델의 모의를 위해서는 방대한 양의 매개변수가 요구되며 이러한 매개변수의 최적값을 산정하는 것은 어려운 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 SWAT-CUP에서 제공하는 4가지 통계 알고리즘 중에서 GLUE와 SUFI-2의 2가지 내부 프로그램을 이용하여 각각 2,000회의 반복계산 결과를 통해 SWAT 모델을 최적으로 보정하기 위한 매개변수를 산정하고자 하였다. SUFI-2 및 GLUE 적용결과 선정된 매개변수 값에 의한 유출 결과는 실측 유량값과 비교하였을 때, NS (Nash-Sutcliffe) 값과 $R^2$값은 각각, 0.87 및 0.89 범위로 거의 같으며 두 가지 방법 모두 매우 우수한 모의결과를 나타내었다. RMSE, MSE 값 또한 거의 유사한 값을 나타내어 두 프로그램의 성능은 차이를 나타내지 않은 것으로 판단된다. SWAT-CUP 프로그램은 국내에서 현재까지 적용사례가 많지 않으나, 방대한 매개변수를 필요로 하고, 보정시 많은 시간과 반복 작업을 필요로 하는 모델을 보정하는 경우에 특히 효과적으로 사용될 수 있을 것으로 판단되며, 모델 사용이 익숙하지 않는 경우에도 유용하게 사용될 수 있을 것으로 보인다.

Estimation of heritability and genetic correlation of body weight gain and growth curve parameters in Korean native chicken

  • Manjula, Prabuddha;Park, Hee-Bok;Seo, Dongwon;Choi, Nuri;Jin, Shil;Ahn, Sung Jin;Heo, Kang Nyeong;Kang, Bo Seok;Lee, Jun-Heon
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • 제31권1호
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    • pp.26-31
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    • 2018
  • Objective: This study estimated the genetic parameters for body weight gain and growth curve parameter traits in Korean native chicken (KNC). Methods: A total of 585 $F_1$ chickens were used along with 88 of their $F_0$ birds. Body weights were measured every 2 weeks from hatching to 20 weeks of age to measure weight gain at 2-week intervals. For each individual, a logistic growth curve model was fitted to the longitudinal growth dataset to obtain three growth curve parameters (${\alpha}$, asymptotic final body weight; ${\beta}$, inflection point; and ${\gamma}$, constant scale that was proportional to the overall growth rate). Genetic parameters were estimated based on the linear-mixed model using a restricted maximum likelihood method. Results: Heritability estimates of body weight gain traits were low to high (0.057 to 0.458). Heritability estimates for ${\alpha}$, ${\beta}$, and ${\gamma}$ were $0.211{\pm}0.08$, $0.249{\pm}0.09$, and $0.095{\pm}0.06$, respectively. Both genetic and phenotypic correlations between weight gain traits ranged from -0.527 to 0.993. Genetic and phenotypic correlation between the growth curve parameters and weight gain traits ranged from -0.968 to 0.987. Conclusion: Based on the results of this study population, we suggest that the KNC could be used for selective breeding between 6 and 8 weeks of age to enhance the overall genetic improvement of growth traits. After validation of these results in independent studies, these findings will be useful for further optimization of breeding programs for KNC.