• Title/Summary/Keyword: outlook model

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Water Supply Change Outlook for Geum River Basin Considering RCP Climate Change Scenario (RCP 기후변화 시나리오를 고려한 금강유역의 미래 용수공급 변화전망)

  • No, Sun-Hee;Jung, Kwan Sue;Park, Jin Hyeog;Ryoo, Kyong Sik
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.5
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    • pp.505-517
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    • 2013
  • In this study, water supply for Geum River Basin was calculated by regulating the future water supply of Dam with the future expected discharges. HadGEM2-AO, which is the climate change prediction model that KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) recently introduced was used for this study. The data of weather stations within the Geum River basin was extracted with the new Greenhouse Gas RCP scenario. The runoff of Geum river basin was simulated using the ArcSWAT for the 1988~2010 period. After validating the model, the similarity of results between simulation and observation at the Yongdam Dam and Daecheong Dam was 92.25% and 95.40%, respectively, which shows a good agreement with observed data. As the result of analysis for the discharges, the discharges would increase 47.76% under the RCP4.5 scenario and 36.52% under the RCP8.5 scenario. Water balance analysis was conducted by the KModSim for predicting the water supply under the runoff variation. We analyzed the volume of water intake with national standard of water supply 95% by Dam Operation Manual. By the analysis under RCP4.5 scenario, $9.41m^3/s$, $24.82m^3/s$ of additional water supply is available on Yongdam Dam and Daecheong Dam. By the analysis under the RCP8.5 scenario, $6.48m^3/s$, $21.08m^3/s$ of additional water supply is available on Yongdam Dam and Daecheong Dam.

A New Phase of China's Development Against the Background of "Trade War" with the US: View from Russia (Вступление Китая в новую фазу развития на фоне "торговой войны" с США: взгляд из России)

  • Lukonin, Sergey;Ignatev, Sergei
    • Analyses & Alternatives
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.111-141
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    • 2018
  • By the middle of 2018 there are signs of China's entry into a new period of development, characterized by a change in the old model: "market reforms-inner-party democratization - moderate foreign policy" to another: "market reforms - Xi Jinping personality cult - offensive foreign policy." This model contains the risks of arising of the contradiction between economic freedom and political-ideological rigidity which can lead to destabilization of the political life. However, in the current positive economic dynamics, these risks may come out, rather, in the medium and long term. Today, the political situation in China remains stable - despite growing dissatisfaction in scientific expert and educational circles due to increased control over the intellectual sphere by the authorities. The need for a new redistribution of power between central and provincial authorities could potentially disrupt political stability in the medium term, but, at the moment, is not a critical negative factor. The economic situation is positive-stable. Forecasts indicate a possible increase in China's GDP in 2018 at 6.5%. At the same time, there are negative expectations in connection with the Sino-US and potentially Sino-European "trade war". In the Chinese foreign policy, as a response to Western pressure, China increasingly uses the Russian direction of its diplomacy in the expanded version of Russia + SCO. The nuance here is seen in China's adjusted approach to the SCO: first of all, not as a mechanism for cooperation with Russia, but as an organization that allows using Russia's potential for pressure on the US in the Sino-US strategic rivalry. In the second half of 2018, the Chinese economy will continue to develop steadily, albeit with unresolved traditional problems (debts of provinces and state-owned enterprises, ineffective state sector, risks on the financial and real estate market). In politics, discontent with the cult of Xi will accumulate, but without real threats to its power. Weakening in economic opposition between China and the United States is possible due to Beijing's search for compromises on tariffs, intellectual property, trade deficit. To find such trade-offs, Xi will use the so-called. "Personal diplomacy" of direct contacts with Trump.

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A Study on derivation of drought severity-duration-frequency curve through a non-stationary frequency analysis (비정상성 가뭄빈도 해석 기법에 따른 가뭄 심도-지속기간-재현기간 곡선 유도에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong, Minsu;Park, Seo-Yeon;Jang, Ho-Won;Lee, Joo-Heon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.2
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    • pp.107-119
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    • 2020
  • This study analyzed past drought characteristics based on the observed rainfall data and performed a long-term outlook for future extreme droughts using Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP 8.5) climate change scenarios. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) used duration of 1, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months, a meteorological drought index, was applied for quantitative drought analysis. A single long-term time series was constructed by combining daily rainfall observation data and RCP scenario. The constructed data was used as SPI input factors for each different duration. For the analysis of meteorological drought observed relatively long-term since 1954 in Korea, 12 rainfall stations were selected and applied 10 general circulation models (GCM) at the same point. In order to analyze drought characteristics according to climate change, trend analysis and clustering were performed. For non-stationary frequency analysis using sampling technique, we adopted the technique DEMC that combines Bayesian-based differential evolution ("DE") and Markov chain Monte Carlo ("MCMC"). A non-stationary drought frequency analysis was used to derive Severity-Duration-Frequency (SDF) curves for the 12 locations. A quantitative outlook for future droughts was carried out by deriving SDF curves with long-term hydrologic data assuming non-stationarity, and by quantitatively identifying potential drought risks. As a result of performing cluster analysis to identify the spatial characteristics, it was analyzed that there is a high risk of drought in the future in Jeonju, Gwangju, Yeosun, Mokpo, and Chupyeongryeong except Jeju corresponding to Zone 1-2, 2, and 3-2. They could be efficiently utilized in future drought management policies.

Nursing Delivery System Improvement Plan in A Hospital (간호전달 체계 개선 방안 - 일 병동을 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Jin-Hi;Lee, Sung-Ae;Ham, Yong-Hee;Yang, Myong-Ju;Kim, Ok-Sohn
    • Quality Improvement in Health Care
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.52-59
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    • 1997
  • Background : In many Nursing Delivery System, Nursing Department at D Hospital had used to traditional nursing practice model what is called functional activities based system. It has a lot of merit that carried out specialized and rapid works but tend to ignore indivisual professional responsibility and task-based work assignments. In addition this system showed high turnover rates due to heavy workload, timesum of handing over duties, lack of support from peers and interstaff communication. So we performed conversion of Nursing Delivery System to My Patients Nursing Care System for providing comprehensive nursing to patient and reducing turnover rates and increasing job satisfaction to nurse. Method : 1. 1st step(96.4.9): Detected the problem of Nursing delivery System and estabilished improving planning 2. 2nd step(96.4.26): Visited other hospital on job training 3. 3th step(96.4.29): Discussed to premonitoring problem after conversion Nursing Delivery System and prepared structure 4. 4th step(96.5.6): My Patients Nursing Care System practical application 5. 5th step(96.7.20): Held complementary meeting 6. 6th step(96. 7): The other ward application 7. 7th step(96. 10): Extended application to whole wards Results: 1. Workload: (1) reduction(55.6%) (2) addition(44.4%) 2. Strong points after conversion: (1) decreased timesum of handing overduties (35.2%) (2) increased responsibility(33%) (3) broaden nurse's outlook to duties(14.8%) 3. Shortcoming after conversion: (1) understanding difficulties except my patient(57.8%) (2) weak teamwork(23.3%) (3) intensive stress to low grade nurse(12.2%) 4. Effective complemental way: (1) manpower(76.7%) (2) conversion of though (8.9%) (3) education(14.4%) 5. Patient's satisfaction: (1) satisfaction(64%) (2) no effect(36%) 6. Physician and peer's satisfaction: (1) satisfaction(12.5%) (2) dissatisfaction(21.6%) (3) no interest(44.3%) 7. Nurse's satisfaction: (1) satisfaction(74.7%) (2) dissatisfaction(5.5%) (3) unknown(20.5%) 8. Want to continued: (1) want(76.4%) (2) try to any other system(18%) Conclusion : Even though Nursing Delivery System conversion still has many problem, we gained more merits than traditional nursing delivery system. So we suggest that My Patients Nursing Care System should be encouraged for comprehensive nursing care and satisfaction to nurses.

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A Study on the Construction of the Logistics System in Northeast Asia - Focusing on a Lesson from the Chang Po Go Period - (동북아 물류체계구축에 관한 연구 - 장보고 해상물류체계의 교훈을 중심으로 -)

  • Bang, Hui-Seok;Park, Geun-Sik;Yang, Hyeon-Seok
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.257-281
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    • 2008
  • This study aims to draw meaningful points from the Chang Po Go period in which Chang Po Go, who established an integrated logistics system while operating on the seas of three nations including Japan, China, and Shilla by taking Chunghaejin, Shilla, as a base of operations in the 9th century, and to discover the need for the construction of the logistics system in northeast Asia. Also, the study intends to propose strategies for contemporary application of the logistics system used during the Chang Po Go period, based on the modern logistics concept. As a result of specifically reviewing the lesson from the Chang Po Go period, which created a paradigm for a new cooperation in logistics, the leadership of the CEO, who is prepared with the long-term vision of Chang Po Go, the implementation of an integrated system for logistics activity, and the political support of the government for private companies, will initiate a bright outlook for the construction of the logistics system in northeast Asia, amid the growing need for cooperation in logistics among the three northeast Asian countries. In this era in which northeast Asia is emerging as the center of the world economy, the cooperative model in the logistics field, which transcended the border of Chang Po Go, who built a maritime logistics network in the 9th century, will help implement a cooperative logistics system in the northeast Asian region.

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A Critical Study on Validity of the Present Purpose of the Public Library Defined in the Korean Library Act ('도서관법(圖書館法)' 중(中) '공공도서관(公共圖書館)의 목적(目的)'에 대한 비판적(批判的) 고찰(考察))

  • Choi, Sung-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean BIBLIA Society for library and Information Science
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.132-177
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    • 1974
  • Toe public library may perform a social good only when its objectives are adequate to the community's needs. The present purpose of the public library in the Korean Library Act has no direct concern for our social needs from its very beginning because it was not created in response to our social needs but transplanted from American principles. It is, therefore. difficult to expect socially useful output of our public library programs under the present purpose which may be inadequate to our social tradition and needs. This study purposes to examine validity of the present purpose of the public library in the Korean Library Act, in the light of our community needs and our own library tradition. The methods employed to achieve the purpose of the study are (1) to survey needs of the library frequenters through questionnaire, and interviews with the public librarians in Seoul, (2) to gather the statistical data relevant to, and supporting, the hypothesis, and (3) to compare our social background with that of the United States of which the American purpose, a model for our present purpose, came out. The conclusion is as follows: A. The idea to induce people to pull themselves upward by providing for all the members of the community access to the world's best books shelved in the public library should be abandoned. The reasons are (1) that the idea is alien in our public library tradition, (2) that little demand of the community goes with the idea, and (3) that reading outside the library has come into wide practice, thanks to recent increase in individual income and that in publications. B. That the public library maintains fiction and other recreational reading materials is meaningless in the light of the community needs. These are the two explanations supporting the thesis. (1) The "uplift" theory has proved inoperative and people apparently do not progress from, light fiction to more respectable fare. (2) The conviction that fiction and other recreational reading materials keep the middling classes from the "vicious" entertainments maintaining order in the community by giving them a harmless source of recreation has lost its significance as the modern society provides a number of choices in recreation: television is an obvious example. C. The nature of the informational needs of the community has radically changed, so radically as to require substantial changes in the outlook, collections, and services of the public library, which is :slow in adopting itself to the new social surroundings in Korea. D. 92.2 per Cent of the present frequenters of the public library are high school and college students. Since the library is to meet the existing community needs it should turn its attention to the student group, and develop the means to serve it better, not the "theoretical group of specialists who do not come to "the public library. E. In revision of the purpose of the public library, priority of each objective should be given. The priorities in the last analysis are research and information. culture, recreation in that order.

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A Causality Analysis of the different types of onion prices (주요산지 양파 작형별 가격간 인과관계 분석)

  • Yang, Jin-Suk;Kim, Bae-Sung;Kim, Hwa-Nyeon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.440-447
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study is to identify the causation and variation among the various types of onion prices in the major production sites to predict these prices. The Granger causal relationship was tested on the basis of VECM by setting the onion price of the early, middle, and late species as individual variables. The analysis shows that the amount of onions produced in the prior term affects the price of onions for the later period, while garlic in the substitution relationship with onions also affects the prices of onions for the early and middle-variety. On the other hand, the price of the late-variety is affected by the price of the early-variety, and the price of the middle-variety is also affected by the price of the early-variety. If the price of onions on Jeju changes due to other factors, the prices of onions in Jeollanam-do and Gyeongsangnam-do provinces will be affected. Accordingly, when the production of late-variety increases or decreases in production under any factor and to promote stability of the prices of middle and late-variety through preemptive supply and demand measures when the prices of ultra-breed onions rise or fall due to any factor (Ed- I cannot understand this last sentence and cannot guess at the correct meaning. Please try to rewrite very simply).

A Guideline for Identifying Blockchain Applications in Organizations (기업에서 요구되는 블록체인 애플리케이션 탐색을 위한 가이드라인)

  • Namn, Su Hyeon
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.83-101
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    • 2019
  • Blockchain is considered as an innovative technology along with Artificial Intelligence, Big Data, and Internet of Things. However, since the inception of the genesis of blockchain technology, the cryptocurrency Bitcoin, the technology is not utilized widely, not let alone disruptive applications. Most of the blockchain research deals with the cryptocurrency, general descriptions of the technology such as trend, outlook of the technology, explanation of component technology, and so on. There are no killer applications like Facebook or Google, of course. Reflecting on the slow adoption by businesses, we wanted know about the current status of the research on blockchain in Korea. The main purpose of this paper is to help business practitioners to identify the application of blockchain to enhance the competitiveness of their organization. To do that, we first use the framework by Iansiti et al (2017) and categorize the blockchain related articles published in Korea according to the framework. This is to provide a benchmark or cases of other organizations' adoption of blockchain technology. Second, based on the value proposition of blockchain applications, we suggest evolutionary paths for adopting them. Third, from the demand pull perspective of technology adoption for innovation, we propose applicable areas where blockchain applications can be introduced. Fourth, we use the value chain model to find out the appropriate domains of blockchain applications in the corporate value chains. And the five competitive forces models is adopted to find ways of lowering the power of forces by incorporating blockchain technology.

The Effect of Real Estate Investment Factors in Investors of Sejong City on Investment Performance and Reinvestment Intention (세종시 투자자의 투자요인이 투자성과와 재투자의향에 미치는 영향)

  • Tae-Bock Park;Jaeho Chung
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.63-76
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    • 2023
  • Investors should understand and actively consider factors like location, future value, policies, pricing, market trends, and their income, as these elements can shift with changing local, social, economic, and policy environments. This study seeks to clarify the impact of investment factors on the performance and reinvestment intentions of Sejong City investors by surveying those who have invested in real estate. This study employs a structural equation model with confirmatory factor analysis, focusing on four aspects: value, economic and policy, psychological, and financial. We find that the investment value factor has the largest impact on investment performance, indicating that investors prioritize the investment value of real estate in Sejong City. In addition, factors increasing asset value and expected satisfaction were significant, indicating that real estate investment in Sejong City yields high returns and investor satisfaction. with a positive outlook for future reinvestment.

Using noise filtering and sufficient dimension reduction method on unstructured economic data (노이즈 필터링과 충분차원축소를 이용한 비정형 경제 데이터 활용에 대한 연구)

  • Jae Keun Yoo;Yujin Park;Beomseok Seo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.119-138
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    • 2024
  • Text indicators are increasingly valuable in economic forecasting, but are often hindered by noise and high dimensionality. This study aims to explore post-processing techniques, specifically noise filtering and dimensionality reduction, to normalize text indicators and enhance their utility through empirical analysis. Predictive target variables for the empirical analysis include monthly leading index cyclical variations, BSI (business survey index) All industry sales performance, BSI All industry sales outlook, as well as quarterly real GDP SA (seasonally adjusted) growth rate and real GDP YoY (year-on-year) growth rate. This study explores the Hodrick and Prescott filter, which is widely used in econometrics for noise filtering, and employs sufficient dimension reduction, a nonparametric dimensionality reduction methodology, in conjunction with unstructured text data. The analysis results reveal that noise filtering of text indicators significantly improves predictive accuracy for both monthly and quarterly variables, particularly when the dataset is large. Moreover, this study demonstrated that applying dimensionality reduction further enhances predictive performance. These findings imply that post-processing techniques, such as noise filtering and dimensionality reduction, are crucial for enhancing the utility of text indicators and can contribute to improving the accuracy of economic forecasts.