• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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• 2015.10a
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• pp.123-124
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• 2015

Recently, with the economy and the information communication technology developed, the smartphone market grows continuously. The market outlook on the wireless rechargeable technology grows rapidly so that the market size is increased about six times bigger than that of the last year, and it will grow about 18 billion dollars in 2014. Because of that, as the interest on this area out focused, many kinds of technology and new product are being exploited in this field. In this research, we aim to analyze factors influencing of the wireless battery charger on continue using intention of Smartphone. Predictor factors were selected perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use and perceived design suggested based extended the technology acceptance model. IBM SPSS Statistics 19 were employed for descriptive statistics, Smart PLS(partial least squares) was employed for confirmatory factor analysis and path analysis of casual relationship among variables and effect. This study suggests practical and theoretical implications based on the results.

• Journal of the Korean Magnetics Society
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.147-150
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• 2011

Since their discovery in the early 1980's, the market for bonded rare earth magnets has shown steady growth. Today these magnets are widely used for our daily life such as computer peripherals, automotive, consumer electronics, and office automation. However, the price increases of rare-earths started from the $2^{nd}$ half of 2010 became even worse in 2011. During $2^{nd}$ quarter of 2011, almost all of rare-earths showed unprecedented vertical price increases, and it brought significant impact to the related industry in terms of the price and supply. This will ask the fundamental change in the policy of the bonded rare earth industry to expand its market share, which has been highly dependent on the replacement of ferrite magnets via relatively higher performance compared to the price at certain applications. In order to achieve the sustainable growth of bonded rare-earth magnets in the future, it needs to change the current paradigm and setup the new business model. This article includes a brief summary of the rare earth price trend and the applications of the rare-earth bonded magnets. The efforts to improve the performance and diversify the applications for future growth have been also presented.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2010.05a
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• pp.1784-1788
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• 2010

APEC 기후센터(APEC Climate Center, APCC)에서 제공하는 다중모형앙상블(Multi-model Ensemble, MME) 형태의 계절예측정보를 이용하여 3개월 가뭄전망을 수행하였다. APCC MME는 기후예측모형이 가지는 불확실성을 최소화하기 위한 방법으로, 아시아 태평양 지역 내 9개 회원국 16개 기관 21개 기후모형의 계절예측정보를 활용하여, 개별 모형이 가지는 계통오차(Systematic error)를 앙상블 기법을 통하여 상쇄함으로써 최적의 예측자료를 도출한다. 또한, 기후예측 모형이 예측한 대기순환장은 관측 지점변수와 경험적 통계적 관련성을 가지므로, 이를 바탕으로 상세지역의 이상기후에 대한 정보를 도출할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 가뭄 관리 및 전망을 위한 입력 자료로서, 기상전문 기관인 APEC 기후센터 (APEC Climate Center, APCC)에서 제공하는 전구 규모의 기온 및 강수 전망자료를 기상청 산하 59개 지점의 전망자료로 통계적 규모 축소화 기법을 통해 3개월 예보를 실시하였다. APCC 계절예측자료를 가뭄모니터링시스템의 자료입력 포맷에 따라 적절히 가공한 뒤, 가뭄 관리 및 전망을 위하여 SPI(Standard Precipitation Index) 및 PDSI(Palmer Drought Severity Index)지수의 입력자료로 사용하여 SPI 및 PDSI 지수를 산정하였다. 또한 분위사상법(Quantile Mapping)을 이용하여 총 59개 지점의 과거 월평균 관측값과 최근 2009년에 대한 모의값의 누적확률분포값을 계산하고 모의값의 확률분포를 관측값의 확률분포에 사상시켜 가뭄 전망을 위한 기상변수의 오차를 보정하고자 하였다. 이러한 계절예측정보를 이용하여 가뭄 전망에 대한 신뢰도가 높아진다면, 사전예방 및 피해완화로 가뭄상황에 대한 신속한 대처 및 피해의 경감이 이루어질 수 있을 것이다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2015.05a
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• pp.22-22
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• 2015

가뭄은 적시에 경보해야 하는 홍수와 달리 진행속도가 느리고 시간적으로 대처할 여유가 있어 진행중일지라도 미리 감지만 한다면 그 피해를 최소화할 수 있다. 이로 인해 미국 등 수문기상 선진국에서는 수문기상 장기예보자료로부터 가뭄전망정보 생산기술을 개발하였으며, 특히 가뭄전망의 정확도 향상을 위해 여러 통계적 보정기법을 적용하고 있다. 국내의 경우 기상청에서 가뭄전망을 목적으로 2011년에 수치예보모델을 이용하여 가뭄전망정보를 생산한바 있으나, 전망정보의 불확실성 문제로 가뭄예보에 활용하는데 한계가 있어 이를 개선할 수 있는 기술개발이 요구되는 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 기후예측자료를 이용하여 가뭄전망정보 생산기술을 개발하고 정확도 개선을 위해 베이지안 기법을 연계하였다. GloSea5 (Global Seasonal forecast model 5) 장기예보자료를 이용하였으며, 베이지안 기법을 통해 과거 관측자료에 대한 사전분포, 모델의 전망정보로부터 우도함수를 유도하여 최종 사후분포를 추정하였다. 베이지안 기법 적용 전 후에 따른 가뭄지수를 산정하였다. 관측자료 기반의 가뭄지수와의 비교분석을 통해 선행기간 및 계절별 가뭄예측 성능을 평가하였으며, 실제 가뭄기간 동안에 가뭄의 재현성을 지역별로 분석하였다. 장기예보자료만을 활용한 기존 가뭄전망에서는 관측 자료가 포함된 1개월 전망에서도 불확실성이 매우 높았지만 베이지안 기법 적용으로 가뭄전망의 정확도가 크게 개선되었다. 특히, 1, 2개월 전망의 시계열 가뭄지수가 관측기반의 가뭄지수의 거동과 매우 유사하게 나타났으며, 지역별로도 베이지안 기법 적용시 실제 가뭄피해 상황을 적절히 재현하는 것으로 나타났다. 국내 가뭄예보에 있어 기후예측정보를 단순활용하기 보다는 베이지안과 같은 통계적 보정기법을 이용하여 가뭄전망정보를 생산하는 것이 바람직하며, 본 연구에서는 가뭄예보업무에 활용될 수 있도록 베이지안 기법에 대한 검증 및 평가를 지속적으로 수행할 계획이다.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.1-23
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• 2014

Market forecasting aims to estimate the sales volume of a product or service that is sold to consumers for a specific selling period. From the perspective of the enterprise, accurate market forecasting assists in determining the timing of new product introduction, product design, and establishing production plans and marketing strategies that enable a more efficient decision-making process. Moreover, accurate market forecasting enables governments to efficiently establish a national budget organization. This study aims to generate a market growth curve for ICT (information and communication technology) goods using past time series data; categorize products showing similar growth patterns; understand markets in the industry; and forecast the future outlook of such products. This study suggests the useful and meaningful process (or methodology) to identify the market growth pattern with quantitative growth model and data mining algorithm. The study employs the following methodology. At the first stage, past time series data are collected based on the target products or services of categorized industry. The data, such as the volume of sales and domestic consumption for a specific product or service, are collected from the relevant government ministry, the National Statistical Office, and other relevant government organizations. For collected data that may not be analyzed due to the lack of past data and the alteration of code names, data pre-processing work should be performed. At the second stage of this process, an optimal model for market forecasting should be selected. This model can be varied on the basis of the characteristics of each categorized industry. As this study is focused on the ICT industry, which has more frequent new technology appearances resulting in changes of the market structure, Logistic model, Gompertz model, and Bass model are selected. A hybrid model that combines different models can also be considered. The hybrid model considered for use in this study analyzes the size of the market potential through the Logistic and Gompertz models, and then the figures are used for the Bass model. The third stage of this process is to evaluate which model most accurately explains the data. In order to do this, the parameter should be estimated on the basis of the collected past time series data to generate the models' predictive value and calculate the root-mean squared error (RMSE). The model that shows the lowest average RMSE value for every product type is considered as the best model. At the fourth stage of this process, based on the estimated parameter value generated by the best model, a market growth pattern map is constructed with self-organizing map algorithm. A self-organizing map is learning with market pattern parameters for all products or services as input data, and the products or services are organized into an $N{\times}N$ map. The number of clusters increase from 2 to M, depending on the characteristics of the nodes on the map. The clusters are divided into zones, and the clusters with the ability to provide the most meaningful explanation are selected. Based on the final selection of clusters, the boundaries between the nodes are selected and, ultimately, the market growth pattern map is completed. The last step is to determine the final characteristics of the clusters as well as the market growth curve. The average of the market growth pattern parameters in the clusters is taken to be a representative figure. Using this figure, a growth curve is drawn for each cluster, and their characteristics are analyzed. Also, taking into consideration the product types in each cluster, their characteristics can be qualitatively generated. We expect that the process and system that this paper suggests can be used as a tool for forecasting demand in the ICT and other industries.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.44 no.12
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• pp.929-940
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• 2011

In this study, the future expected discharges are analyzed for Daecheong and Yongdam Dam Watershed in Geum River watershed using A1B scenario based RCM with 27 km spatial resolutions from Korea Meteorological Agency and SWAT model. The direct use of GCM and RCM data for water resources impact assessment is practically hard because the spatial and temporal scales are different. In this study, the problems of spatial and temporal scales were settled by the spatial and temporal downscaling from watershed scale to weather station scale and from monthly to daily of RCM grid data. To generate the detailed hydrologic scenarios of the watershed scale, the multi-site non-stationary downscaling method was used to examine the fluctuations of rainfall events according to the future climate change with considerations of non-stationary. The similarity between simulation and observation results of inflows and discharges at the Yongdam Dam and Daecheong Dam was respectively 90.1% and 84.3% which shows a good agreement with observed data using SWAT model from 2001 to 2006. The analysis period of climate change was selected for 80 years from 2011 to 2090 and the discharges are increased 6% in periods of 2011~2030. The seasonal patterns of discharges will be different from the present precipitation patterns because the simulated discharge of summer was decreased and the discharge of fall was increased.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.312-319
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• 2013

Our understanding of the sensitivities of crop responses to changes in carbon dioxide, temperature, and water is limited, which makes it difficult to fully utilize crop models in assessing the impact of climate change on future agricultural production. Genetic coefficients of CERES-Barley model for major domestic cultivars in South Korea (Olbori at Suwon, Albori at Milyang, Saessalbori at Iksan, and Samdobori at Jinju) were estimated from the observed data for daily weather and field trials for more than 10 years by using GenCalc in DSSAT. Data from 1997-2002 annual crop status report (Rural Development Administration, RDA) were used to validate the crop coefficients. The sitecalibrated CERES-Barley model was used to perform crop growth simulation with the 99 treatments of step change combinations in temperature, precipitation and carbon dioxide concentration with respect to the baseline climate (1981-2010) at four sites. The upper boundary corresponds to the 2071-2100 climate outlook from the RCP 8.5 scenario. The response surface of grain yield showed a distinct pattern of model behavior under the combined change in environmental variables. The simulated grain yield was most sensitive to $CO_2$ concentration, least sensitive to precipitation, and showing a variable response to temperature depending on cultivar. The emulated impacts of response surfaces are expected to facilitate assessment of projected climate impacts on a given cultivar in South Korea.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.305-316
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• 2022

Domestic construction companies have difficulty in establishing strategies when entering overseas markets because they do not have an overseas construction economic sentiment index to refer to for data on overseas construction prospects. Considering that the fluctuation of overseas construction orders over the past decade has been substantial and large companies and SMEs are actively advancing overseas, this study developed an evaluation model for an overseas construction business sentiment index to grasp the economic experience of overseas construction companies. In 2021 Korean companies earned 30.6 billion in overseas construction contracts, 87% the level of the previous year, despite difficulties such as COVID-19 and low oil prices, thanks to efforts by construction companies to strengthen their strategies for entry, such as regional diversification, and government support for winning orders. Since the overseas construction industry fluctuates greatly due to changes in the international environment, it is necessary to investigate and analyze the economic sentiment index of overseas construction companies. In particular, despite the increase in overseas expansion of small and medium-sized construction companies and engineering companies, the provision of information on the overseas construction market sentiment index is insufficient, limiting the establishment of strategies for overseas construction expansion. Therefore, this study intends to develop an overseas construction market sentiment index model that can understand the economic sentiment of overseas construction companies, provide a forecast for overseas construction, and use it to establish overseas construction strategies and policies.

• Economic Analysis
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.1-42
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• 2021

The outlook for Korea's consumer price inflation rate has a profound impact not only on the Bank of Korea's operation of the inflation target system but also on the overall economy, including the bond market and private consumption and investment. This study presents the prediction results of consumer price inflation in Korea for the next three years. To this end, first, model selection is performed based on the out-of-sample predictive power of autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) models, AR models, small-scale vector autoregressive (VAR) models, and large-scale VAR models. Since there are many potential predictors of inflation, a Bayesian variable selection technique was introduced for 12 macro variables, and a precise tuning process was performed to improve predictive power. In the case of the VAR model, the Minnesota prior distribution was applied to solve the dimensional curse problem. Looking at the results of long-term and short-term out-of-sample predictions for the last five years, the ADL model was generally superior to other competing models in both point and distribution prediction. As a result of forecasting through the combination of predictions from the above models, the inflation rate is expected to maintain the current level of around 2% until the second half of 2022, and is expected to drop to around 1% from the first half of 2023.

• Journal of Korean society of Dental Hygiene
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.59-72
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• 2003

The purpose of this study was to examine what the role of denial hygienist was. The subjects were 751 dental hygienists from dental clinics, dental hospitals, general hospitals, public dental clinics and their branches throughout the nation. After a survey was conducted, the collected data were analyzed with SPSS WIN 10.0, and variance analysis and post-analysis were implemented. And Forgarty's 8th integrated model, out of 10 ones, was selected to delve into the practical role of dental hygienist in detail. The findings of this study were as follows: 1. The three age groups had a significantly different opinion on the significance of individual subjects. The dental hygienists of thirty six and over found the basic and preventive public dental care courses most important, and the 31~35 age group placed most stock in education and research. Overall, the post-analysis results showed that prevention and clinical courses were considered most vital, followed by education and fundamental courses. 2. There was a significant gap between four groups from the different work places in their view of the weight of the individual subjects. According to the post-analysis, the dental hygienists from the general hospitals, public dental clinics and their branches gave more weight to fundamental, education and research areas. Those who were with the dental clinics, dental hospitals and general hospitals put higher value on clinical course than the dental hygienists from the public dental clinics and their branches. 3. Two groups with a different career also had a different outlook on the importance of the individual subjects. The post-analysis results illustrated that the dental hygienists who had worked for three years or more put higher stress on the fundamental course than those with a less career, and the dental hygienists with a five-year or higher career attached more importance to the education and research field than those with a smaller career. 4. There was a significant difference between the three age groups in their clinical role. The post-analysis results indicated thai the younger dental hygienists were more of assistants than of professionals, as they chiefly took X-ray photograph, handled treatment materials or performed treatment-related works. Overall, handling treatment materials was most common. 5. The three groups from the different work places significantly varied in their clinical role. According to the post-analysis, those from the dental clinics and dental hospitals took more x-ray photographs, handled more treatment materials and performed more relevant works, compared to those from the general hospitals, public dental clinics and their branches. 6. The two groups with a different career differed significantly in their clinical role. The post-analysis results suggested that the dental hygienists with a less career played an assistant role more, which handled treatment materials or carried out other relevant works. 7. The fundamental courses (I) and (II), preventive class (I) and (II) and its practice course were regarded as integrated subjects that they should take 10 offer preventive treatment, which was one of the dental hygienist missions. What's needed to act as dental-care educators was the basic courses (I) and (II), dental hygiene education and its practice. Finally, integrated clinical courses (I) and (II) and clinical practice were viewed as necessary for their role performance as dental treatment collaborators.