• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.26 no.6
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• pp.527-538
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• 2019

This paper considers the issue of obtaining the optimal design in Poisson regression model when the sample size is small. Poisson regression model is widely used for the analysis of count data. Asymptotic theory provides the basis for making inference on the parameters in this model. However, for small size experiments, asymptotic approximations, such as unbiasedness, may not be valid. Therefore, first, we employ the second order expansion of the bias of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and derive the mean square error (MSE) of MLE to measure the quality of an estimator. We then define DM-optimality criterion, which is based on a function of the MSE. This criterion is applied to obtain locally optimal designs for small size experiments. The effect of sample size on the obtained designs are shown. We also obtain locally DM-optimal designs for some special cases of the model.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 1986.10a
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• pp.73-77
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• 1986

Optimal input design problem for linear regression model with constrained output variance has been considered. It is shown that the optimal input signal for the linear regression model can also be realized as an ARMA process. Monte-Carlo simulation results show that the optimal stochastic input leads to comparatively better estimation accuracy than white input signal.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.15 no.5
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• pp.783-791
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• 2008

Estimation procedure of the finite population proportion and distribution function is considered. Based on a logistic regression model, an approximately model- optimal estimator is defined and conditions for the estimator to be design-consistent are given. Simulation study shows that the model-optimal design-consistent estimator defined under a logistic regression model performs well in estimating the finite population distribution function.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society for Quality Management Conference
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• 1998.11a
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• pp.239-250
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• 1998

A method of finding optimal linear restriction on regression parameters in linear model for mixture experiments in the sense of minimizing integrated mean squared error is studied. We use the formulation of optimal restrictions on regression parameters for estimating responses proposed by Park(1981) by transforming mixture components to mathematically independent variables.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.325-336
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• 1999

Collinearity among independent variables can have severe effects on the precision of response estimation for some region of interest in the experiments with mixture. A method of finding optimal linear restriction on regression parameter in linear model for mixture experiments in the sense of minimizing integrated mean squared error is studied. We use the formulation of optimal restrictions on regression parameters for estimating responses proposed by Park(1981) by transforming mixture components to mathematically independent variables.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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• 1997.10a
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• pp.676-679
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• 1997

The present paper is concerned with the optimal deslgn that the static spring rate of the fiber-reinforcement composite spring is fitted to that of the steel leaf spring. The thickness and w~dth of springs were selected as deslgn variables. And object functions of the regression model were obtained through the analysis with a common analytic program. After regression coefficients were calculated to get functions of the regression model, optimal solutions were calculated with DOT. E-GlassIEpoxy and CarbonIEpoxy were used as fiber reinforcement materials in the design, which were compared and analyzed with the steel leaf spring. It was found that the static spring rate of the optimal model was almost similar to that of the existing spring.

• The Mathematical Education
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.1-13
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• 1998

In this paper, we have represented the efficient way how to enumerate the optimal number-right scores to adjust the item difficulty and to improve item discrimination. To estimate the optimal number-right scores in two equivalent math-tests by linear score equating a measurement error model was applied to the true scores observed from a pair of equivalent math-tests assumed to measure same trait. The model specification for true scores which is represented by the bivariate model is a simple regression model to inference the optimal number-right scores and we assume again that the two simple regression lines of raw scores and true scores are independent each other in their error models. We enumerated the difference between mean value of $\chi$＊ and ${\mu}$$\_$$\chi$/ and the difference between the mean value of y＊and a＋b${\mu}$$\_$$\chi$/ by making an inference the estimates from 2 error variable regression model. Furthermore, so as to distinguish from the original score points, the estimated number-right scores y’$\^$*/ as the estimated regression values of true scores with the same coordinate were moved to center points that were composed of such difference values with result of such parallel score moving procedure as above mentioned. We got the asymptotically normal distribution in Figure 5 that was represented as the optimal distribution of the optimal number-right scores so that we could decide the optimal proportion of number-right score in each item. Also by assumption that equivalence of two tests is closely connected to unidimensionality of a student’s ability. we introduce new definition of trait score to evaluate such ability in each item. In this study there are much limitations in getting the real true scores and in analyzing data of the bivariate error model. However, even with these limitations we believe that this study indicates that the estimation of optimal number right scores by using this enumeration procedure could be easily achieved.

• Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.807-815
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• 2002

We consider a more general linear regression super-population model than the one of Chaudhuri and Stronger(1992) . We can find the same type of the best linear unbiased(BLU) predictor as that of Chaudhuri and Stenger and see that the optimal design is again a purposive one which prescribes choosing one of the samples of size n which has $\chi$ closest to $\bar{X}$.

• Water for future
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.93-100
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• 1992

A study on the Derivation of the Unit Hydrograph using Multiple Regression Moe이. The purpose of this study is to deriver an optimal unit hydrograph suing the multiple regression model, particularly when only small amount of data is available. The presence of multicollinearity among the input data can cause serious oscillations in the derivation of the unit hydrograph. In this case, the oscillations in the unit hydrograph ordinate are eliminated by combining the data. The data used in this study are based upon the collection and arrangement of rainfall-runoff data(1977-1989) at the Soyang-river Dam site. When the matrix X is the rainfall series, the condition number and the reciprocal of the minimum eigenvalue of XTX are calculated by the Jacobi an method, and are compared with the oscillation in the unit hydrograph. The optimal unit hydrograph is derived by combining the numerous rainfall-runoff data. The conclusions are as follows; 1)The oscillations in the derived unit hydrograph are reduced by combining the data from each flood event. 2) The reciprocals of the minimum eigen\value of XTX, 1/k and the condition number CN are increased when the oscillations are active in the derived unit hydrograph. 3)The parameter estimates are validated by extending the model to the Soyang river Dam site with elimination of the autocorrelation in the disturbances. Finally, this paper illustrates the application of the multiple regression model to drive an optimal unit hydrograph dealing with the multicollinearity and the autocorrelation which cause some problems.

• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.75-87
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• 1980

Most hydro]ogic phenomena are the complex and organic products of multiple causations like climatic and hydro-geological factors. A certain significant correlation on the run-off in river basin would be expected and foreseen in advance, and the effect of each these causual and associated factors (independant variables; present-month rainfall, previous-month run-off, evapotranspiration and relative humidity etc.) upon present-month run-off(dependent variable) may be determined by multiple regression analysis. Functions between independant and dependant variables should be treated repeatedly until satisfactory and optimal combination of independant variables can be obtained. Reliability of the estimated function should be tested according to the result of statistical criterion such as analysis of variance, coefficient of determination and significance-test of regression coefficients before first estimated multiple regression model in historical sequence is determined. But some error between observed and estimated run-off is still there. The error arises because the model used is an inadequate description of the system and because the data constituting the record represent only a sample from a population of monthly discharge observation, so that estimates of model parameter will be subject to sampling errors. Since this error which is a deviation from multiple regression plane cannot be explained by first estimated multiple regression equation, it can be considered as a random error governed by law of chance in nature. This unexplained variance by multiple regression equation can be solved by stochastic approach, that is, random error can be stochastically simulated by multiplying random normal variate to standard error of estimate. Finally hybrid model on estimation of monthly run-off in nonhistorical sequence can be determined by combining the determistic component of multiple regression equation and the stochastic component of random errors. Monthly run-off in Naju station in Yong-San river basin is estimated by multiple regression model and hybrid model. And some comparisons between observed and estimated run-off and between multiple regression model and already-existing estimation methods such as Gajiyama formula, tank model and Thomas-Fiering model are done. The results are as follows. (1) The optimal function to estimate monthly run-off in historical sequence is multiple linear regression equation in overall-month unit, that is; Qn=0.788Pn+0.130Qn-1-0.273En-0.1 About 85% of total variance of monthly runoff can be explained by multiple linear regression equation and its coefficient of determination (R2) is 0.843. This means we can estimate monthly runoff in historical sequence highly significantly with short data of observation by above mentioned equation. (2) The optimal function to estimate monthly runoff in nonhistorical sequence is hybrid model combined with multiple linear regression equation in overall-month unit and stochastic component, that is; Qn=0. 788Pn+0. l30Qn-1-0. 273En-0. 10+Sy.t The rest 15% of unexplained variance of monthly runoff can be explained by addition of stochastic process and a bit more reliable results of statistical characteristics of monthly runoff in non-historical sequence are derived. This estimated monthly runoff in non-historical sequence shows up the extraordinary value (maximum, minimum value) which is not appeared in the observed runoff as a random component. (3) "Frequency best fit coefficient" (R2f) of multiple linear regression equation is 0.847 which is the same value as Gaijyama's one. This implies that multiple linear regression equation and Gajiyama formula are theoretically rather reasonable functions.