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The Effect of Managerial Overconfidence on Crash Risk (경영자과신이 주가급락위험에 미치는 영향)

  • Ryu, Haeyoung
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.8 no.5
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    • pp.87-93
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    • 2017
  • Purpose - This paper investigates whether managerial overconfidence is associated with firm-specific crash risk. Overconfidence leads managers to overestimate the returns of their investment projects, and misperceive negative net present value projects as value creating. They even use voluntary disclosures to convey their optimistic beliefs about the firms' long-term prospects to the stock market. Thus, the overconfidence bias can lead to managerial bad news hoarding behavior. When bad news accumulates and crosses some tipping point, it will come out all at once, resulting in a stock price crash. Research design, data and methodology - 7,385 firm-years used for the main analysis are from the KIS Value database between 2006 and 2013. This database covers KOSPI-listed and KOSDAQ-listed firms in Korea. The proxy for overconfidence is based on excess investment in assets. A residual from the regression of total asset growth on sales growth run by industry-year is used as an independent variable. If a firm has at least one crash week during a year, it is referred to as a high crash risk firm. The dependant variable is a dummy variable that equals 1 if a firm is a high crash risk firm, and zero otherwise. After explaining the relationship between managerial overconfidence and crash risk, the total sample was divided into two sub-samples; chaebol firms and non-chaebol firms. The relation between how I overconfidence and crash risk varies with business group affiliation was investigated. Results - The results showed that managerial overconfidence is positively related to crash risk. Specifically, the coefficient of OVERC is significantly positive, supporting the prediction. The results are strong and robust in non-chaebol firms. Conclusions - The results show that firms with overconfident managers are likely to experience stock price crashes. This study is related to past literature that examines the impact of managerial overconfidence on the stock market. This study contributes to the literature by examining whether overconfidence can explain a firm's future crashes.

The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Stock Markets: An Empirical Analysis of World Major Stock Indices

  • KHAN, Karamat;ZHAO, Huawei;ZHANG, Han;YANG, Huilin;SHAH, Muhammad Haroon;JAHANGER, Atif
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.7
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    • pp.463-474
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    • 2020
  • This study aims to investigate the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the stock markets of sixteen countries. Pooled OLS regression, conventional t-test and Mann-Whitney test are used to estimate the results of the study. We construct a weekly panel data of COVID-19 new cases and stock returns. Pooled OLS estimation result shows that the growth rate of weekly new cases of COVID-19 negatively predicts the return in stock market. Next, the returns on leading stock indices of these countries during the COVID-19 outbreak period are compared with returns during the non-COVID period. We use a t-test and Mann-Whitney test to compare the returns. The results reveal that investors in these countries do not react to the media news of COVID-19 at the early stage of the pandemic. However, once the human-to-human transmissibility had been confirmed, all of the stock market indices negatively reacted to the news in the short- and long-event window. Interestingly, we noticed that the Shanghai Composite Index, which was severely affected during the short-event window, bounced back during the long-event window. This indicates that the Chinese government's drastic measures to contain the spread of the pandemic regained the confidence of investors in the Shanghai Stock Market.

Estimation for the Change of Daily Maxima Temperature (일일 최고기온의 변화에 대한 추정)

  • Ko, Wang-Kyung
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2007
  • This investigation on the change of the daily maxima temperature in Seoul, Daegu, Chunchen, Youngchen was triggered by news items such as the earth is getting warmer and a recent news item that said that Korea is getting warmer due to this climatic change. A statistical analysis on the daily maxima for June over this period in Seoul revealed a positive trend of 1.1190 centigrade over the 45 years, a change of 0.0249 degrees annually. Due to the large variation on these maximum temperatures, one can raise the question on the significance of this increase. To check the goodness of fit of the proposed extreme value model, we shown a Q-Q plot of the observed quantiles against the simulated quantiles and a probability plot. And we calculated statistics each month and a tolerance limit. This is tested through simulating a large number of similar datasets from an Extreme Value distribution which described the observed data very well. Only 0.02% of the simulated datasets showed an increase of this degrees or larger, meaning that the probability is very low for such an event to occur.

Analysis of Paper Qualities and Forming Process at Varied Mixing Ratios of Different Kinds of Recovered Paper (이종 폐지 혼합 비율에 따른 종이 품질 및 초지 공정 변화 분석)

  • Choi, Do-Chim;Lee, Kwang Seob;Kim, Chang Keun;Cho, Byoung-Uk;Ryu, Jeong-Yong
    • Journal of Korea Technical Association of The Pulp and Paper Industry
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.28-36
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    • 2014
  • The kind and the mixing ratio of recovered papers would affect the quality of final recycled paper. In this study, effects of the mixing ratio of various domestic recycled papers (old news print (ONP), old corrugated container (OCC) and coated paper (CP)) on variations in physical properties of paper and its productivity were investigated. When the mixing ratio of CP grade increased, the freeness (CSF) of recycled pulp was increased while paper strength and white water turbidity was decreased. Paper strength was decreased as the percentage of OCC was higher than ONP. When ONP was mixed with OCC, no adverse effect was observed except the increased drainage resistance. It is expected that these results could be utilized as fundamental data to establish regulations for the recovered paper grades according to mixing ratios of different kinds of them.

A Usability Evaluation on the Visualization of Information Extraction Output (정보추출결과의 시각화 표현방법에 관한 이용성 평가 연구)

  • Lee Jee-Yeon
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Library and Information Science
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.287-304
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    • 2005
  • The goal of this research is to evaluate the usability of visually browsing the automatically extracted information. A domain-independent information extraction system was used to extract information from news type texts to populate the visually browasable knowledge base. The information extraction system automatically generated Concept-Relation-Concept triples by applying various Natural Language Processing techniques to the text portion of the news articles. To visualize the information stored in the knowledge base, we used PersoanlBrain to develop a visualization portion of the user interface. PersonalBrain is a hyperbolic information visualization system, which enables the users to link information into a network of logical associations. To understand the usability of the visually browsable knowledge base, IS test subjects were observed while they use the visual interface and also interviewed afterward. By applying a qualitative test data analysis method. a number of usability Problems and further research directions were identified.

An Exploratory Study of the Influence of Cultural Capital on the Political Information Acquisition (문화자본이 정치정보 획득에 미치는 영향에 대한 탐색적 연구)

  • Park, Keun-Young
    • Informatization Policy
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.57-74
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    • 2015
  • This research has been performed in order to investigate the probability that cultural factors in everyday life affect individuals' political behaviors. Using the data collected from 2014 Seoul mayoral election, it analyzes how the degree to which individuals have various cultural capital influences their types of political information acquisition through media. The outcomes suggest following three. First, the more cultural capital individuals have, the more active they are in obtaining political information using diverse media. Second, those who mark high score in the self-cognitive area of cultural capital, such as cultural preferences and cultural tastes, tend to gather political information throughout formal news-oriented media such as on-line news, TV, and newspapers. Third, when types of media are classified into old and new, those who have a variety of cultural capital are likely to prefer new media as their major source of political information acquisition.

School Safety Education Factors Predicting Injury Prevalence Among Korean Adolescence (학교의 안전교육 관련 특성이 청소년의 사고발생 예측에 미치는 영향)

  • 이명선;박경옥
    • Korean Journal of Health Education and Promotion
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.147-165
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    • 2004
  • Injury is a leading cause of death in the children and adolescent populations. In particular, more than 80% of unintentional injury was related to risk-taking behaviors involved in diverse accidents around school and home. Therefore, educational approaches should be provided for children and adolescent populations, and schools are the essential and appropriate sites to conduct safety education. This study was conducted to identify injury prevalence and safety education at schools among middle and high school students in Korea. About 1,034 middle and high students in 28 schools participated in a self-administered survey. The target schools were selected from the stratified random sampling method throughout schools of seven metropolitan cities in Korea. The questionnaires were delivered to the vice-principals by ground mailing service and the vice-principals administered survey data collection. The questionnaire asked about safety education provided in schools, injury experience in the last year, needs for injury prevention class in school, and demographics. All survey responses were entered into SPSS worksheet. Multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) and descriptive discriminant analysis (DDA) were used in statistical analysis with SPSS software 11.1. Multivariate analysis of variance was conducted as a preliminary analysis of DDA. According to the result of multivariate analysis of variance, gender (man), grade (poor), living with both parents, and displaying injury prevention messages on school news board were significantly different between the injured student group and the uninjured student group (p= .00). These four factors also had significant effects on students' injury experience in DDA, although correlation of the four factors with injury experience was weak overall based on their canonical function coefficients. All structure coefficients of the four factors were greater than .30, which means the four factors have discriminant effects on injury prevalence. The sizes of the discriminant effects, in order, were largly from gender, grade, living with both parents, and safety message display on school news boards.

Comparative Analysis on Newspaper Editorial Related with Environment -Focusing on the 6-Daily Newspapers- (환경관련 신문사설 비교 -6대 일간지를 중심으로-)

  • Ryu Young-Han;Bae Young-Boo;Kim Yong-Geun
    • Hwankyungkyoyuk
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    • v.19 no.1 s.29
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    • pp.90-103
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    • 2006
  • The purpose of this paper is to analyze media companies' editorial viewpoints regarding environmental issues. Not only do newspaper editorials provide a variety of environmental information, but also they make it possible for the public to form an opinion and to establish communication channels regarding environmental issues. With this in mind, this paper analyzes the changes in environmental reporting over the past two decades. The newspaper companies started writing more frequently about the environment from early 1980s. To show this, I analyzed environmental articles written in the six main news-paper companies: Chosun, Donga, Hangerae, Kyunghyang, Hankook, and Munwha from 1999 to 2004. For this study, the articles have been complied by using the Korean Integrated News Database System (KINDS). Also the data has been sorted according to year, subject, and ty the company of origin. The total number of the environmental articles posted on these six daily newspapers from 1999 to 2004 is 729 and these represent 2.59% of the total articles. Hankook-Ilbo was the company that handled the most of environmental articles followed by Hangerae, Munwha, Kyunghwang, Chosun, and Donga. The major topics of discussion were environmental development and water quality issues. The number of the environmental related articles increased in 1999 and 2000, but then decreased from 2001 to 2003. Again the number increased in 2004. Interestingly while the number of articles covering the environment increased from the 1980s and into the 1990s, the number of articles decreased from 1999 to 2004 as the post-IMF period seems to have suppressed interest in the ecological issues despite the economic growth that followed. With the change in media coverage people have begun to recognize environmental issues as having social impact. As a result the people have begun to take such issues more seriously and take more active role in effecting environmental policy. Thus it is important that the media presents it's stories in an object manner to insure that the public is properly informed.

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Exploring 'Tradition' Terminology Trends based on Keyword Analysis (1920~2017) (키워드 분석 기반 '전통' 용어의 트렌드 분석 (1920~2017))

  • Kim, Min-Jeong;Kim, Chul Joo
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.18 no.12
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    • pp.421-431
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the trends of 'traditional' terminology in Korea. We focus on an empirical investigation of how media reports are conveying 'tradition' terminology in our society by applying text mining and social network analysis techniques. The analysis covered 2,481,143 news articles related to 'tradition' terminology that appeared in the media since the 1920's. In this research, frequency analysis, association analysis and social network analysis were used on articles related to 'tradition' terminology from 1920 to 2017 by decade. By applying these data science techniques, we can grasp the meaning of social culture phenomenon related 'tradition' with objective and value-neutral position and understand the social symbolism which contains the tradition of the times.

Topic Modeling of News Article Related to Franchise Regulation Using LDA (LDA 를 이용한 '프랜차이즈 규제' 관련 뉴스기사 토픽모델링)

  • YANG, Woo-Ryeong;YANG, Hoe Chang
    • The Korean Journal of Franchise Management
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: In 2020, the franchise industry accomplished a significant growth compared to the previous year, as the number of franchise companies increased by 9.0% while the number of franchise brands increased by 12.5%. Despite growth in size, the Korean franchise industry underwent many negative incidents, such as franchise ownership sales to private equity funds, that led to deterioration of businesses. From this point of view, this study aims to make various proposals to help policy makers develop franchise industry policies by analyzing trends of the current and previous presidential administrations' franchise policies and regulations using newspaper articles. Research design, data and methodology: A total of 7,439 articles registered in Naver API from February 25, 2013 to November 29, 2021 were extracted. Among them, 34 unrelated video articles were deleted, and a total of 7,405 articles from both administrations were used for analysis. The R package was used for word frequency analysis, word clouding, word correlation analysis, and LDA (Latent Dirichlet Allocation) topic modeling. Results: The keyword frequency analysis shows that the most frequently mentioned keywords during the previous administration include 'no-brand', 'major company', 'bill', 'business field', and 'SMEs', and those mentioned during the current administration include 'industry' and 'policy'. As a result of LDA topic modeling, 9 topics such as 'global startups' and 'job creation' from the previous administration, and 10 topics such as 'franchise business' and 'distribution industry' from the current administration were derived. The results of LDAvis showed that the previous administration operated a policy based on mutual growth of large and small businesses rather than hostile regulations in the franchise business, whereas the current administration extended the regulation related to franchise business to the employment sector. Conclusions: The analysis of past two administrations' franchise policy, it can be suggested that franchisors and franchisees may complement each other in developing the Fair Transactions in Franchise Business Act and achieving balanced growth. Moreover, political support is needed for sound development of franchisors. Limitations and future research suggestions are presented at the end of this study.