• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.233-250
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• 2021

This paper studies if the accuracies of mortality models (LC model vs. 4-parametric model) are aggravated if a mortality structure changes due to the impact of COVID-19. LC model (LCM) uses dimension reduction for fitting to the log mortality matrix so that the performance of the dimension reduction method may not be good when the matrix structure changes. On the other hand, 4-parametric factor model (4-PFM) is designed to use factors for fitting to log mortality data by age groups so that it would be less affected by the change of the mortality structure. In fact, the forecast accuracies of LCM are better than those of 4-PFM when life-tables are used whereas those of 4-PFM are better when the mortality structure changes. Thus this result shows that 4-PFM is more reliable in performance to the structural changes of the mortality. To support the accuracy changes of LCM the functional aspect is explained by computing eigenvalues produced by singular vector decomposition

• Animal cells and systems
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.127-132
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• 2003

Effects of genotype, settlement density and irradiane on the growth, mortality and population structure of Fucus serratus germlings were examined in the laboratory. The growth of F. serratus germlings was influenced by genotype of parent plants, which is likely to occur by microclimatic differentiation of substrata. The growth of germlings were greater at lower densities than higher densities indicating that intraspecific competition between germlings occurred within three weeks. Also, the growth of F. serratus germlings was better at $120\mumol\;m^-2/s^-1$ than at $60\mumol\;m^-2/s^-1$. However, mortality of germlings was determined by settlement density rather than irradiance. In population structure, skewness was increased at low irradiance and high density indicating that population structure could be changed by intraspecific competition. Thus, it is concluded that genotypic differentiation of F. serratus germlings occurred in a microgeographic scale, and the experimental density and irradiance level affected the growth of germlings.

• Journal of Korean Public Health Nursing
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.241-251
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• 2007

Purpose: To identify the effects on tuberculosis mortality of a tuberculosis control program conducted at 108 community health centers in terms of structure and process. Methods: The dependent variable was tuberculosis mortality, and the independent variables were the structure(type of centers, staff, nurses, doctors, budget) and process(chest X-ray checking, immunization, case detection, health education, patients registering & managing) of the tuberculosis control programs at the community health centers. Data were analyzed using descriptive analysis and stepwise regression analysis. Result: Tuberculosis morality was positively correlated with type of centers(rural area)(p<0.01), but negatively correlated with type of centers(large cities) (p<0.01), (middle cities)(p<0.05), staff FTE(p<0.05), and number of nurses(p<0.05). Regression analysis indicated that type of centers(rural area)($\beta$=0.457) and case detection($\beta$=0.234) had a significant effect on tuberculosis mortality. Conclusion: Ultimately, this study will provide information to improve the effectiveness of tuberculosis control programs in community health centers.

• Survey Research
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.1-26
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• 2011

Mortality for oldest-old age (aged 80 or over) in Korea has never been studied mainly due to lack of data leaving its quality aside. The rapid aging recently occurring in Korea, which no other country has never experienced, must introduce a drastic change in the structure of future population pyramid, requring a careful investigation on mortality level, pattern, and trend for the oldest-old age in Korea. For mortality trend, we need to extend the past mortality data, which has provided only an open-ended age interval 80 or 85 years and over, to age-specific mortality up to 115 years old. A prerequisite for such an extension is constructing a Korean standard mortality by which one can figure out the mortality level and pattern of the oldest-old age. A Korean standard mortality is proposed by applying one relational model and eleven functions from which we select best models for each sex in terms of three measures of fits and three consistencies of mortality. Then we extend the mortality of the open-ended age intervals by providing a method to avoid the longitudinal consistency of mortality.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.13 no.9
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• pp.4501-4504
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• 2012

In recent decades, decreasing trends in esophageal cancer mortality have been observed across China. We here describe esophageal cancer mortality trends in Linzhou city, a high-incidence region of esophageal cancer in China, during 1988-2010 and make a esophageal cancer mortality projection in the period 2011-2020 using a Bayesian approach. Age standardized mortality rates were estimated by direct standardization to the World population structure in 1985. A Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) analysis was carried out in order to investigate the effect of the age, period and birth cohort on esophageal cancer mortality in Linzhou during 1988-2010 and to estimate future trends for the period 2011-2020. Age-adjusted rates for men and women decreased from 1988 to 2005 and changed little thereafter. Risk increased from 30 years of age until the very elderly. Period effects showed little variation in risk throughout 1988-2010. In contrast, a cohort effect showed risk decreased greatly in later cohorts. Forecasting, based on BAPC modeling, resulted in a increasing burden of mortality and a decreasing age standardized mortality rate of esophageal cancer in Linzhou city. The decrease of esophageal cancer mortality risk since the 1930 cohort could be attributable to the improvements of socialeconomic environment and lifestyle. The standardized mortality rates of esophageal cancer should decrease continually. The effect of aging on the population could explain the increase in esophageal mortality projected for 2020.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.38 no.3
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• pp.267-275
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• 2005

Evidence on the relation of socioeconomic position (SEP) with health and illness is mounting in South Korea. Several unlinked studies and individually linked studies (longitudinal study) showed a graded inverse relationship between SEP and mortality among South Korean males and females. Based on the mortality relative ratios by occupational class reported in the published papers of South Korea and western countries, the magnitude of the socioeconomic inequality in mortality in South Korea seems to be similar to or even greater than that in western industrialized countries. A potential contribution of health related selection, health behaviors and psychosocial factors to explain this socioeconomic inequality in mortality was discussed. It was suggested that early life exposure measures would demonstrate a greater ability to explain socioeconomic inequalities in all-cause mortality than the above pathway variables in South Korea. This is based on the cause-specific structure of mortality among the South Korean population who have a relatively greater proportion of stomach cancer, hemorrhagic stroke, liver cancer and liver disease, and tuberculosis, which share early life exposures as important elements of their etiology, than western countries. However, the relative contribution of early and later life socioeconomic conditions in producing socioeconomic inequality in health may differ according to the outcome, thus remains to be investigated.

• Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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• v.59 no.2
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• pp.149-153
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• 2016

Objective : The aim of the present study is to estimate the incidence trend of head injury and the mortality based on traffic accident statistics and to investigate the impacts of rapid industrialization and economic growth on epidemiology of head injury in Korea over the period 1970-2012 including both pre-industrialized and post-industrialized stages. Methods : We collected data of head injury estimated from traffic accident statistics and seven hospital based reports to see incidence trends between 1970 and 2012. We also investigated the population structure and Gross National Income (GNI) per capita of Korea over the same period. The age specific data were investigated from 1992 to 2012. Results : The incidence of head injury gradually rose in the 1970s and the 1980s but stabilized until the 1990s with transient rise and then started to decline slowly in the 2000s. The mortality grew until 1991 but gradually declined ever since. However, the old age groups showed rather slight increase in both rates. The degree of decrease in the mortality has been more rapid than the incidence on head injury. Conclusion : In Korea during the low income stage, rapid industrialization cause considerable increase in the mortality and the incidence of head injury. During the high income stage, the incidence of head injury gradually declined and the mortality dropped more rapidly than the incidence due to preventive measures and satisfactory medical care. Nevertheless, the old age groups revealed rather slight increase in both rates owing to the large population structure and the declining birth rate.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.31 no.5
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• pp.637-653
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• 2018

Rapid aging of the population affects population structure and population aging. Consequently, developed countries have focused on population aging as a major issue in regards to pension sustainability finances as well as health and the elderly welfare system. Mortality projections that result from population structure changes and population aging are increasingly important. This paper compares six mortality models using KOSTAT's life table from 1970 to 2016. The models are rooted in the Lee-Carter (LC) model (Lee and Carter, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87, 659-671, 1992) and have been modified and improved on the assumptions of the LC model. We examined the improvement process and the check assumption by models in order to find a suitable mortality model for Korea. Korea shows rapid aging and declined mortality rate by age; therefore, it is desirable to estimate and predict mortality from LL&LC-ER models by combining LC-ER, LL, and LC-ER models that reflect the phenomena and modify age-specific mortality patterns without major changes in expected life expectancy.

• Quality Improvement in Health Care
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.218-228
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• 2000

Background : Among 'structure', 'process' and 'outcome' approaches, outcome evaluation is considered as the most direct and best approach to assess the quality of health care providers. Risk-adjustment is an essential method to compare outcome across providers. This study has aims to judge performance of hospitals by severity adjusted mortality rates of coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. Methods : Medical records of 584 patients who got the CABG surgery in 6 general hospitals during 1996 and 1997 were reviewed by trained nurses. The MedisGroups was used to quantify severity of patients. The predictive probability of death was calculated for each patient in the sample from a multivariate logistic regression model including the severity score, age and sex. For evaluation of hospital performance, we calculated ratio of observed number to expected number of deaths and z score [(observed number of deaths - expected number of deaths)/square root of the variance in the number of deaths], and compared observed mortality rate with confidence interval of adjusted mortality rate for each hospital. Results : The overall in-hospital mortality was 7.0%, ranged from 2.7% to 15.7% by hospital. After severity adjustment the mortality by hospital was from 2.7% to 10.7%. One hospital with poor performance was distinctly divided from others with good performance. Conclusion : In conclusion, severity-adjusted mortality rate of CABG surgery might be applied as an indicator for hospital performance evaluation in Korea. But more pilot studies and improvement of methodologies has to be done to use it as quality indicator.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.44 no.4
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• pp.241-255
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• 2020

Background: The stem exclusion stage is a stage of forest development that is important for understanding the subsequent understory reinitiation stage and maturation stage during which horizontal heterogeneity is formed. Over the past 11 years (2009-2019), we observed a deciduous broad-leaved forest in the Albongbunji Basin in Ulleungdo, South Korea in its stem exclusion stage, where Fagus engleriana (Engler's beech) is the dominant species, thereby analyzing the changes in the structure (density and size distributions), function (biomass and species richness), and demographics. Results: The mean stem density data presented a bell-shaped curve with initially increasing, peaking, and subsequently decreasing trends in stem density over time, and the mean biomass data showed a sigmoidal pattern indicating that the rate of biomass accumulation slowed over time. Changes in the density and biomass of Fagus engleriana showed a similar trend to the changes in density and biomass at the community level, which is indicative of the strong influence of this species on the changing patterns of forest structure and function. Around 2015, a shift between recruitment and mortality rates was observed. Deterministic processes were the predominant cause of tree mortality in our study; however, soil deposition that began in 2017 in some of the quadrats resulted in an increase in the contribution of stochastic processes (15% in 2019) to tree mortality. The development of horizontal heterogeneity was observed in forest gaps. Conclusions: Our observations showed a dramatic shift between the recruitment and mortality rates in the stem exclusion stage, and that disturbance increases the uncertainty in forest development increases. The minor changes in species composition are likely linked to regional species pool and the limited role of the life-history strategy of species such as shade tolerance and habitat affinity. Our midterm records of ecological succession exhibited detailed demographic dynamics and contributed to the improvement of an ecological perspective in the stem exclusion stage.