• Title/Summary/Keyword: monetary policy

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The Impacts of Speculative Trading on Commodity Prices After the Global Financial Crisis (금융위기 이후 투기 거래가 원자재 가격에 미친 영향)

  • Kim, Hwa-Nyeon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.179-185
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    • 2016
  • This study verifies whether speculative trading in commodity markets acted as the primary cause of the increase in commodity prices after the global financial crisis using the Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model. The effects of speculative trading on commodity prices increased by a factor of 3 to 6 after the crisis compared to those before the crisis. Although the demand related variables, such as industrial production, affected commodity prices significantly before the crisis, their effects decreased after the crisis. Consequently, the rebound of commodity prices after the crisis was mainly caused by the increase in speculative money, fortified by the expansion of the global liquidity supply. The global liquidity may well increase in the future, because the U.S. Federal Reserve Board is likely to continue to increase its interest rate. This study claims that when global liquidity shrinks as a result of a change in the Fed's monetary policy stance, speculative trading will slow down, leading to a decline in commodity prices.

The Effects of Gaming Motivations on Gaming Behaviors: A Self-Determination Theory Approach (게임사용 동기가 게임행동에 미치는 영향 : 자기결정성이론을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Yeonggeul;Jung, Hee Young;Kim, Ju-Ill
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Computer Game
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.91-99
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    • 2018
  • A growing body of research has focused on the negative effects of Internet gaming. This issue has become an increased public health concern in Korea. However, little is known regarding the positive effect of Internet gaming and its etiology. This study examined the effects of gaming motivations on gaming behaviors based on self-determination theory. Specifically, we investigated the associations of intrinsic and extrinsic gaming motivations with adaptive and maladaptive game uses. A cross-sectional data collected from a sample of 3,000 young adults using 2016 Korean Video Gaming Survey was analyzed. Measurement model analysis and structural equation modeling were conducted as primary analyses. The findings highlight the different effects of intrinsic and extrinsic motivations on gaming behaviors, such as adaptive and maladaptive game uses. Intrinsic motivations, such as experience-seeking and achievement-seeking, were associated with adaptive game use. Meanwhile, extrinsic motivations, such as sensation-seeking and monetary reward-seeking, were associated with maladaptive game use. The findings provide a better understanding of video gaming in light of both adaptive and maladaptive game uses. The implications for practice and policy were discussed.

Empirical Analysis on Labor Market Slackness and Monetary Policy Implications in Korea (우리나라 노동시장의 유휴생산능력 추정 및 통화정책에 대한 시사점 분석)

  • Kim, Tae Bong;Lee, Hangyu
    • Journal of Labour Economics
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.1-34
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    • 2020
  • After the global financial crisis, doubts have been raised about the usefulness of traditional unemployment rate for the labor market slackness, hence, this study provides alternative indicators that can help estimate the labor market slackness in Korea, and investigates the degree of biasness of traditional indices of Korean labor market. In particular, this study intends to focus on the possibility of employing the labor underutilization index officially announced by Statistics Korea (KOSIS) from 2015. To do this, we first define the labor underutilization indices from 2003 to 2014 by applying current definitions of labor underutilization indices retrospectively to these periods. Based on these indices, the empirical analysis shows that the employment gap using labor underutilization indices is highly correlated with total output gap, and has significantly improved the performance of forecasting inflation rate compared to other labor market slackness indicators.

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Business Cycle Analysis on Korean Youth Labor Market using Alternative Unemployment Measures (고용보조지표를 활용한 청년실업과 경기상관 분석)

  • Kim, Tae Bong;Park, Keunhyeong
    • Economic Analysis
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.43-71
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    • 2020
  • This paper aims to derive macroeconomic implications by analyzing the business cycle characteristics of the youth unemployment. The results of empirical analysis seem to show that youth unemployment appears to be relatively less correlated with business cycle compared to other age groups, and thus it is difficult to explain the recent steady increase in the potential labor force as a result of the business cycle fluctuation alone. Moreover, the alternative unemployment measures of the youth group showing upward trend were estimated to be co-integrated with output measures. This co-integrated trend increase suggests that unlike other age groups, youth may be influenced by structural factors inherent in Korea's economic growth path. The fact that the wage difference based on firm size has widened steadily since the Asian financial crisis and that the proportion of large companies that provide relatively high-quality jobs compared to major industrialized countries is significantly lower may be the evidence of the structural changes in Korean youth labor market. The results of above analysis may explain why the job search periods for youth has lengthened amid these structural changes.

Analysis of Characteristics and Determinants of Household Loans in Korea: Focusing on COVID-19 (국내 가계대출의 특징과 결정요인 분석: COVID-19를 중심으로)

  • Jin-Hee Jang;Jae-Bum Hong;Seung-Doo Choi
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.51-61
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    • 2023
  • Purpose - Since COVID-19, the government's expansion of liquidity to stimulate the economy has resulted in an increase in private debt and an increase in asset prices of such as real estate and stocks. The recent sharp rise of the US Federal fund rate and tapering by the Fed have led to a fast rise in domestic interest rates, putting a heavy burden on the Korean economy, where the level of household debt is very high. Excessive household debt might have negative effects on the economy, such as shrinking consumption, economic recession, and deepening economic inequality. Therefore, now more than ever, it is necessary to identify the causes of the increase in household debt. Design/methodology/approach - Main methodology is regression analysis. Dependent variable is household loans from depository institutions. Independent variables are consumer price index, unemployment rate, household loan interest rate, housing sales price index, and composite stock price index. The sample periods are from 2017 to May 2022, comprising 72 months of data. The comparative analysis period before and after COVID-19 is from January 2017 to December 2019 for the pre-COVID-19 period, and from Jan 2020 to December 2022 for the post-COVID-19 period. Findings - Looking at the results of the regression analysis for the entire period, it was found that increases in the consumer price index, unemployment rate, and household loan interest rates decrease household loans, while increases in the housing sales price index increase household loans. Research implications or Originality - Household loans of depository institutions are mainly made up of high-credit and high-income borrowers with good repayment ability, so the risk of the financial system is low. As household loans are closely linked to the real estate market, the risk of household loan defaults may increase if real estate prices fall sharply.

The Economic Growth of Korea Since 1990 : Contributing Factors from Demand and Supply Sides (1990년대 이후 한국경제의 성장: 수요 및 공급 측 요인의 문제)

  • Hur, Seok-Kyun
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.169-206
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    • 2009
  • This study stems from a question, "How should we understand the pattern of the Korean economy after the 1990s?" Among various analytic methods applicable, this study chooses a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) with long-run restrictions, identifies diverse impacts that gave rise to the current status of the Korean economy, and differentiates relative contributions of those impacts. To that end, SVAR is applied to four economic models; Blanchard and Quah (1989)'s 2-variable model, its 3-variable extensions, and the two other New Keynesian type linear models modified from Stock and Watson (2002). Especially, the latter two models are devised to reflect the recent transitions in the determination of foreign exchange rate (from a fixed rate regime to a flexible rate one) as well as the monetary policy rule (from aggregate targeting to inflation targeting). When organizing the assumed results in the form of impulse response and forecasting error variance decomposition, two common denominators are found as follows. First, changes in the rate of economic growth are mainly attributable to the impact on productivity, and such trend has grown strong since the 2000s, which indicates that Korea's economic growth since the 2000s has been closely associated with its potential growth rate. Second, the magnitude or consistency of impact responses tends to have subsided since the 2000s. Given Korea's high dependence on trade, it is possible that low interest rates, low inflation, steady growth, and the economic emergence of China as a world player have helped secure capital and demand for export and import, which therefore might reduced the impact of each sector on overall economic status. Despite the fact that a diverse mixture of models and impacts has been used for analysis, always two common findings are observed in the result. Therefore, it can be concluded that the decreased rate of economic growth of Korea since 2000 appears to be on the same track as the decrease in Korea's potential growth rate. The contents of this paper are constructed as follows: The second section observes the recent trend of the economic development of Korea and related Korean articles, which might help in clearly defining the scope and analytic methodology of this study. The third section provides an analysis model to be used in this study, which is Structural VAR as mentioned above. Variables used, estimation equations, and identification conditions of impacts are explained. The fourth section reports estimation results derived by the previously introduced model, and the fifth section concludes.

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Relationship Between Housing Prices and Expected Housing Prices in the Real Estate Industry (주택유통산업에서의 주택가격과 기대주택가격간의 관계분석)

  • Choi, Cha-Soon
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.13 no.11
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    • pp.39-46
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    • 2015
  • Purpose - In Korea, there has been a recent trend that shows housing prices have risen rapidly following the International Monetary Fund crisis. The rapid rise in housing prices is spreading recognition of this as a factor in housing price volatility. In addition, this raises the expectations of housing prices in the future. These expectations are based on the assumption that a relationship exists between the current housing prices and expected housing prices in the real estate industry. By performing an empirical analysis on the validity of the claim that an increase in current housing prices can be correlated with expected housing prices, this study examines whether a long-term equilibrium relationship exists between expected housing prices and existing housing prices. If such a relationship exists, the recovery of equilibrium from disequilibrium is analyzed to derive related implications. Research design, data, and methodology - The relationship between current housing prices and expected housing prices was analyzed empirically using the Vector Error Correction Model. This model was applied to the co-integration test, the long-term equilibrium equation among variables, and the causality test. The housing prices used in the analysis were based on the National Housing Price Trend Survey released by Kookmin Bank. Additionally, the Index of Industrial Product and the Consumer Price Index were also used and were obtained from the Bank of Korea ECOS. The monthly data analyzed were from January 1987 to May 2015. Results - First, a long-term equilibrium relationship was established as one co-integration between current housing price distribution and expected housing prices. Second, the sign of the long-term equilibrium relationship variable was consistent with the theoretical sign, with the elasticity of housing price distribution to expected housing price, the industrial production, and the consumer price volatility revealed as 1.600, 0.104,and 0.092, respectively. This implies that the long-term effect of expected housing price volatility on housing price distribution is more significant than that of the industrial production and consumer price volatility. Third, the sign of the coefficient of the error correction term coincided with the theoretical sign. The absolute value of the coefficient of the correction term in the industrial production equation was 0.006, significantly larger than the coefficients for the expected housing price and the consumer price equation. In case of divergence from the long-term equilibrium relationship, the state of equilibrium will be restored through changes in the interest rate. Fourth, housing-price volatility was found to be causal to expected housing price, and was shown to be bi-directionally causal to industrial production. Conclusions - Based on the finding of this study, it is required to relieve the association between current housing price distribution and expected housing price by using property taxes and the loan-to-value policy to stabilize the housing market. Further, the relationship between housing price distribution and expected housing price can be examined and tested using a sophisticated methodology and policy variables.

Economic Evaluation and Budget Impact Analysis of the Surveillance Program for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Thai Chronic Hepatitis B Patients

  • Sangmala, Pannapa;Chaikledkaew, Usa;Tanwandee, Tawesak;Pongchareonsuk, Petcharat
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.20
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    • pp.8993-9004
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    • 2014
  • Background: The incidence rate and the treatment costs of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are high, especially in Thailand. Previous studies indicated that early detection by a surveillance program could help by down-staging. This study aimed to compare the costs and health outcomes associated with the introduction of a HCC surveillance program with no program and to estimate the budget impact if the HCC surveillance program were implemented. Materials and Methods: A cost utility analysis using a decision tree and Markov models was used to compare costs and outcomes during the lifetime period based on a societal perspective between alternative HCC surveillance strategies with no program. Costs included direct medical, direct non-medical, and indirect costs. Health outcomes were measured as life years (LYs), and quality adjusted life years (QALYs). The results were presented in terms of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) in Thai THB per QALY gained. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were applied to investigate parameter uncertainties. Budget impact analysis (BIA) was performed based on the governmental perspective. Results: Semi-annual ultrasonography (US) and semi-annual ultrasonography plus alpha-fetoprotein (US plus AFP) as the first screening for HCC surveillance would be cost-effective options at the willingness to pay (WTP) threshold of 160,000 THB per QALY gained compared with no surveillance program (ICER=118,796 and ICER=123,451 THB/QALY), respectively. The semi-annual US plus AFP yielded more net monetary benefit, but caused a substantially higher budget (237 to 502 million THB) than semi-annual US (81 to 201 million THB) during the next ten fiscal years. Conclusions: Our results suggested that a semi-annual US program should be used as the first screening for HCC surveillance and included in the benefit package of Thai health insurance schemes for both chronic hepatitis B males and females aged between 40-50 years. In addition, policy makers considered the program could be feasible, but additional evidence is needed to support the whole prevention system before the implementation of a strategic plan.

The Era of Digital Currency and CBDC Strategy (디지털 화폐 시대와 CBDC 대응전략)

  • Kim, So-Hyung;Chung, Jee-Yong;Kim, Moon-Soo;Choi, Hyang-Mi
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.19 no.12
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    • pp.303-309
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    • 2021
  • This study examines the effects of CBDC(Central Bank Digital Currency) on the Korean economy in the digital currency era and discusses the response strategies for CBDC. With the review of the definition and the development status of digital currency, we explore the characteristics and current status of CBDC in Korea as well as the possibility for internationalization of CBDC. The result shows that CBDC can reduce credit risk, improve transaction transparency compared to cash, and increases monetary policy capacity. Meanwhile, the credit and intermediary function of financial institutions may be weakened, and side effects such as financial alienation may occur. Nevertheless, as the issuance of CBDC is an important opportunity to enhance the possibility of internationalization of Korean Won, preemptive measures are required to keep pace with the competition and cooperation with each country toward the digital key currency. We need to accelerate the digital financial environment through Korea's comparative advantage, and develop a strategy to achieve the internationalization of the financial industry and the Korean Won through CBDC issuance. From the early stage of CBDC designing, it is necessary to achieve international agreements through cooperation with other central banks and to develop policies suitable for the transition to digital currency.

A Qualitative Study on Facilitating Factors of User-Created Contents: Based on Theories of Folklore (사용자 제작 콘텐츠의 활성화 요인에 대한 정성적 연구: 구비문학 이론을 중심으로)

  • Jung, Seung-Ki;Lee, Ki-Ho;Lee, In-Seong;Kim, Jin-Woo
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.43-72
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    • 2009
  • Recently, user-created content (UCC) have emerged as popular medium of on-line participation among users. The Internet environment has been constantly evolving, attracting active participation and information sharing among common users. This tendency is a significant deviation from the earlier Internet use as an one-way information channel through which users passively received information or contents from contents providers. Thanks to UCCs online users can now more freely generate and exchange contents; therefore, identifying the critical factors that affect content-generating activities has increasingly become an important issue. This paper proposes a set of critical factors for stimulating contents generation and sharing activities by Internet users. These factors were derived from the theories of folklores such as tales and songs. Based on some shared traits of folklores and UCC content, we found four critical elements which should be heeded in constructing UCC contents, which are: context of culture, context of situation, skill of generator, and response of audience. In addition, we selected three major UCC websites: a specialized contents portal, a general internet portal, and an official contents service site, They have different use environments, user interfaces, and service policies, To identify critical factors for generating, sharing and transferring UCC, we traced user activities, interactions and flows of content in the three UCC websites. Moreover, we conducted extensive interviews with users and operators as well as policy makers in each site. Based on qualitative and quantitative analyses of the data, this research identifies nine critical factors that facilitate contents generation and sharing activities among users. In the context of culture, we suggest voluntary community norms, proactive use of copyrights, strong user relationships, and a fair monetary reward system as critical elements in facilitating the process of contents generation and sharing activities. Norms which were established by users themselves regulate user behavior and influence content format. Strong relationships of users stimulate content generation activities by enhancing collaborative content generation. Particularly, users generate contents through collaboration with others, based on their enhanced relationship and specialized skills. They send and receive contents by leaving messages on website or blogs, using instant messenger or SMS. It is an interesting and important phenomenon, because the quality of contents can be constantly improved and revised, depending on the specialized abilities of those engaged in a particular content. In this process, the reward system is an essential driving factor. Yet, monetary reward should be considered only after some fair criterion is established. In terms of the context of the situation, the quality of contents uploading system was proposed to have strong influence on the content generating activities. Among other influential factors on contents generation activities are generators' specialized skills and involvement of the users were proposed. In addition, the audience response, especially effective development of shared interests as well as feedback, was suggested to have significant influence on contents generation activities. Content generators usually reflect the shared interest of others. Shared interest is a distinct characteristic of UCC and observed in all the three websites, in which common interest is formed by the "threads" embedded with content. Through such threads of information and contents users discuss and share ideas while continuously extending and updating shared contents in the process. Evidently, UCC is a new paradigm representing the next generation of the Internet. In order to fully utilize this innovative paradigm, we need to understand how users take advantage of this medium in generating contents, and what affects their content generation activities. Based on these findings, UCC service providers should design their websites as common playground where users freely interact and share their common interests. As such this paper makes an important first step to gaining better understand about this new communication paradigm created by UCC.