• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2004년도 학술발표회
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• pp.1285-1289
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• 2004

Elman Discrete Recurrent Neural Networks Model(EDRNNM) was used to be a suitable short-term hydrological forecasting tool yielding a very high degree of flood stage forecasting accuracy at Musung station of Wi-stream one of IHP representative basins in South Korea. A relative new approach method has recurrent feedback nodes and virtual small memory in the structure. EDRNNM was trained by using two algorithms, namely, LMBP and RBP The model parameters, optimal connection weights and biases, were estimated during training procedure. They were applied to evaluate model validation. Sensitivity analysis test was also performed to account for the uncertainty of input nodes information. The sensitivity analysis approach could suggest a reduction of one from five initially chosen input nodes. Because the uncertainty of input nodes information always result in uncertainty in model results, it can help to reduce the uncertainty of EDRNNM application and management in small catchment.

• 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
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• 제8권4호
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• pp.165-175
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• 2003

국제적으로 측정결과의 신뢰성을 판단할 수 있는 척도로서 불확도(Uncertainty)개념이 도입되고 국제 표준화기구(ISO)가 여러 국제기구와 합동으로 "측정불확도표현지침(GUM)"을 1993년에 발간하게 되었다. 본 논문에서는 시료의 산포가 존재하는 경우 시료산포를 불확도 인자로 적용하여 측정결과에 대한 불확도를 평가할 수 있는 측정모델을 구축하여 제시하고, GUM에서 제시한 불확도 전파법칙의 문제점을 분석하여 이를 보완할 수 있는 새로운 불확도의 평가방법으로 몬테칼로 시뮬레이션을 이용한 컴퓨터프로그램 활용의 필요성을 논하고자 한다. 또한 이러한 이론적 근거를 바탕으로 하여 불확도를 평가할 수 있는 컴퓨터 프로그램 개발사례를 제시하고자 한다. 제시하고자 한다.

• 한국화재소방학회논문지
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• 제26권2호
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• pp.40-52
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• 2012

본 논문에서는 원자력발전소의 모터제어반 스위치기어실 화재 모델링에 대한 입력변수 불확실성 분석을 수행하였다. 화재모델링은 FDS 5.5를 사용하였고 FDS 입력변수 램던 샘플링은 라틴하이퍼쿠브 몬테칼로 방법을 이용하였다. 본 연구에서 수행한 입력변수 불확실성 분석 결과를 비교하기 위해 NUREG-1934의 화재모델링 결정론적 불확실성 분석과 민감도 분석 방법을 이용한 분석도 수행하였다. 분석결과, 본 연구의 모터제어반 스위치 기어룸 화재 모델링에 대한 입력변수 불확실성 분석방법이 NUREG-1934의 방법보다 보수적인 결과를 얻을 수 있음을 확인하였다.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2005년도 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.324-328
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• 2005

This study is to figure out uncertainty relationship between input data and calibrated parameter on unsteady hydraulic routing model. The uncertainty would be present to model results as a variant water surface profile along the channel. Firstly, Manning's n is calibrated through the model with assumed uncertainty on input hydrograph. Then, spatially distributed n-values sets based on the calibrated n values are used to get water profile of each n-values set. The results show that ${\pm}0.002$ of error in Manning's n cause ${\pm}30cm$ of maximum water surface differences at the Sumjin river.

• 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국경영과학회/대한산업공학회 2005년도 춘계공동학술대회 발표논문
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• pp.566-573
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• 2005

Quality function deployment (QFD) is a useful tool for ensuring quality throughout each stage of the product development and production process. Since the focus of QFD is placed on the early stage, the uncertainty in the input information of QFD is inevitable. If the uncertainty is neglected, the QFD analysis results are likely to be misleading. This paper classifies the sources of uncertainty in QFD, and proposes a new approach to model and analyze the effects of uncertainty in QFD.

• Water Engineering Research
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• 제3권4호
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• pp.215-234
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• 2002

Uncertainty in dam breach flood routing results was analyzed in order to provide the basis fer the investigation of their effects on the flood damage assessments and dam safety risk assessments. The Monte Carlo simulation based on Latin Hypercube Sampling technique was used to generate random values for two uncertain input parameters (i.e., dam breach parameters and Manning's n roughness coefficients) of a dam breach flood routing analysis model. The flood routing results without considering the uncertainty in two input parameters were compared with those with considering the uncertainty. This paper showed that dam breach flood routing results heavily depend on the two uncertain input parameters. This study indicated that the flood damage assessments in the downstream areas can be critical if uncertainty in dam breach flood routing results are considered in a reasonable manner.

• 한국대기환경학회지
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• 제18권4호
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• pp.327-334
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• 2002

The work presents sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of 2-compartment model for the evaluation of indoor radon pollution in a house. Effort on the development of such model is directed towards the prediction of the generation and transfer of radon in indoor air released from groundwater. The model is used to estimate a quantitative daily human exposure through inhalation of such radon based on exposure scenarios. However, prediction from the model has uncertainty propagated from uncertainties in model parameters. In order to assess how model predictions are affected by the uncertainties of model inputs, the study performs a quantitative uncertainty analysis in conjunction with the developed model. An importance analysis is performed to rank input parameters with respect to their contribution to model prediction based on the uncertainty analysis. The results obtained from this study would be used to the evaluation of human risk by inhalation associated with the indoor pollution by radon released from groundwater.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제8권4호
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• pp.915-934
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• 2015

Within the context of Structural Health Monitoring (SHM), it is often the case that structural systems are described by uncertainty, both with respect to their parameters and the characteristics of the input loads. For the purposes of system identification, efficient modeling procedures are of the essence for a fast and reliable computation of structural response while taking these uncertainties into account. In this work, a reduced order metamodeling framework is introduced for the challenging case of nonlinear structural systems subjected to earthquake excitation. The introduced metamodeling method is based on Nonlinear AutoRegressive models with eXogenous input (NARX), able to describe nonlinear dynamics, which are moreover characterized by random parameters utilized for the description of the uncertainty propagation. These random parameters, which include characteristics of the input excitation, are expanded onto a suitably defined finite-dimensional Polynomial Chaos (PC) basis and thus the resulting representation is fully described through a small number of deterministic coefficients of projection. The effectiveness of the proposed PC-NARX method is illustrated through its implementation on the metamodeling of a five-storey shear frame model paradigm for response in the region of plasticity, i.e., outside the commonly addressed linear elastic region. The added contribution of the introduced scheme is the ability of the proposed methodology to incorporate uncertainty into the simulation. The results demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed methodology for accurate prediction and simulation of the numerical model dynamics with a vast reduction of the required computational toll.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2020년도 학술발표회
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• pp.123-123
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• 2020

The present study is aimed to correcting radar-based mean areal precipitation forecasts to improve urban flood predictions and uncertainty analysis of water levels contributed at each stage in the process. For this reason, a long short-term memory (LSTM) network is used to reproduce three-hour mean areal precipitation (MAP) forecasts from the quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) of the McGill Algorithm for Precipitation nowcasting by Lagrangian Extrapolation (MAPLE). The Gangnam urban catchment located in Seoul, South Korea, was selected as a case study for the purpose. A database was established based on 24 heavy rainfall events, 22 grid points from the MAPLE system and the observed MAP values estimated from five ground rain gauges of KMA Automatic Weather System. The corrected MAP forecasts were input into the developed coupled 1D/2D model to predict water levels and relevant inundation areas. The results indicate the viability of the proposed framework for generating three-hour MAP forecasts and urban flooding predictions. For the analysis uncertainty contributions of the source related to the process, the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) using delayed rejection and adaptive metropolis algorithm is applied. For this purpose, the uncertainty contributions of the stages such as QPE input, QPF MAP source LSTM-corrected source, and MAP input and the coupled model is discussed.

• International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
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• 제16권2호
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• pp.140-146
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• 2016

This paper proposes a control method of the Segway with unknown control coefficient and input saturation. To design a simple controller for the Segway with the model uncertainty, the prescribed performance function is used. Furthermore, an auxiliary variable is introduced to deal with unknown time-varying control coefficient and input saturation problem. Due to the auxiliary variable, function approximators are not used in this paper although all model uncertainties are unknown. Thus, the controller can be simple. From the Lyapunov stability theory, it is proved that all errors of the proposed control system remain within the prescribed performance bounds. Finally, the simulation results are presented to demonstrate the performance of the proposed scheme.