• Title/Summary/Keyword: model factor

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Bayesian analysis of a repairable system subject to overhauls with bounded failure intensity

  • Preeti Wanti, Srivastava;Nidhi, Jain
    • International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.55-70
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    • 2013
  • This paper deals with the Bayesian analysis of the failure data of a repairable mechanical system subject to minimal repairs and periodic overhauls. The effect of overhauls on the reliability of the system is modeled by a proportional age reduction model and the failure process between two successive overhauls is assumed to be 2-parameter Engelhardt-Bain process (2-EBP). Power Law Process (PLP) model has a disadvantage which 2-EBP can overcome. On the basis of the observed data and of a number of suitable prior densities, point and interval estimation of model parameters, as well as quantities of relevant interest are found. Also hypothesis tests on the effectiveness of performed overhauls have been developed using Bayes factor. Sensitivity analysis of improvement parameter is carried out. Finally, a numerical application is used to illustrate the proposed method.

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A multi-state model approach for risk analysis of pensions for married couples with consideration of mortality difference by marital status

  • Stefani, Anastasia;Kwon, Hyuk-Sung
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.611-626
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    • 2021
  • Marital status has been identified as an important risk factor affecting adult mortality. Many studies have found that marriage has positive effects on mortality and increases life expectancy. Since most pension contracts providing retirement income are provided to married couples, mortality assumption for actuarial valuation based on the entire population is likely to overestimate the actual mortality of the group of beneficiaries specified in the contracts. This study considered the differences in mortality according to marital status to analyze the length and value of the payments of a typical pension contract for a married couple. The study quantified the effect on actuarial measurements of considering marital status in mortality assumptions with a multi-state model framework using Korean experience mortality data organized by marital status. The results of analysis indicate that considering marital status in mortality assumptions improves mortality risk management.

Knowledge-based learning for modeling concrete compressive strength using genetic programming

  • Tsai, Hsing-Chih;Liao, Min-Chih
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.255-265
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    • 2019
  • The potential of using genetic programming to predict engineering data has caught the attention of researchers in recent years. The present paper utilized weighted genetic programming (WGP), a derivative model of genetic programming (GP), to model the compressive strength of concrete. The calculation results of Abrams' laws, which are used as the design codes for calculating the compressive strength of concrete, were treated as the inputs for the genetic programming model. Therefore, knowledge of the Abrams' laws, which is not a factor of influence on common data-based learning approaches, was considered to be a potential factor affecting genetic programming models. Significant outcomes of this work include: 1) the employed design codes positively affected the prediction accuracy of modeling the compressive strength of concrete; 2) a new equation was suggested to replace the design code for predicting concrete strength; and 3) common data-based learning approaches were evolved into knowledge-based learning approaches using historical data and design codes.

A Methodology of Open BIM-based Quantity take-off for Schematic Estimation of the Frame Work in Early Design Stage

  • Hansaem Kim;Jungsik Choi;Inhan Kim
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2013.01a
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    • pp.419-425
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    • 2013
  • Recently AEC industry has required construction automation according to becoming large and complex. Thus BIM-based construction project is increased and used in whole fields of AEC industry. Quantity take-off and estimation fields are important factor for decision-making in conceptual and schematic design stages of construction projects. The purpose of this study improves reliability of the estimation through QTO based on Open BIM. Scope and method to apply QTO is to select conceptual design stage through LoD(Level of Detail) in AEC field and to extract information from BIM model through analysis of IFC structure. This study proceeds three step to make BIM model and check the model quality and calculate QTO. The methodology of QTO using IFC is to verify of result in this study and expects utilizing in design stage of construction projects. The result from this study is expected to decrease the risk factor and time of estimation in the project early phase through improving reliability of schematic estimation.

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A Study on the Methodology for Expanding Collected Sampling Data with the RFID System and Applying in National Road Traffic Volume Survey (RFID 표본데이터의 전수화방법 및 '국가도로교통량조사'에 활용방안 연구)

  • Park, Bum-Jin;Lee, Seung-Hun;Moon, Byeong-Sup
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.29-37
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    • 2008
  • In this parer, we purpose for applying the RFID(Radio Frequency IDentification) system in National Road Traffic Volume Survey. Because there is limitation for shipping RFID Tag on every car, we firstly defined Expansion (process of making the number of all cars which passed survey point from sampling data) and determined the best methodology among 3 methodologies (Time factor Model, Fuzzy Model, Artificial Neural Network). As a result of analysis, Time Factor Model was chosen as the best methodology for Expansion. Also, we analyzed to find an application of the RFID system in National Road Traffic Volume Survey and obtained a possibility applying it. It is expected that if the RFID system is used in Traffic Volume Survey, the survey cost is saved than before.

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A Structural Model for Premenstrual Coping in University Students: Based on Biopsychosocial Model (생물심리사회모델에 근거한 여대생의 월경전증후군 대처 예측모형)

  • Chae, Myung-Ock;Jeon, Hae Ok;Kim, Ahrin
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.47 no.2
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    • pp.257-266
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    • 2017
  • Purpose: The aims of this study were to construct a hypothetical structural model which explains premenstrual coping in university students and to test the fitness with collected data. Methods: Participants were 206 unmarried women university students from 3 universities in A and B cities. Data were collected from March 29 until April 30, 2016 using self-report structured questionnaires and were analyzed using IBM SPSS 23.0 and AMOS 18.0. Results: Physiological factor was identified as a significant predictor of premenstrual syndrome (t=6.45, p<.001). This model explained 22.1% of the variance in premenstrual syndrome. Psychological factors (t=-2.49, p=.013) and premenstrual syndrome (t=8.17, p<.001) were identified as significant predictors of premenstrual coping. Also this model explained 30.9% of the variance in premenstrual coping in university students. A physiological factors directly influenced premenstrual syndrome (${\beta}=.41$, p=.012). Premenstrual syndrome (${\beta}=.55$, p=.005) and physiological factor (${\beta}=.23$, p=.015) had significant total effects on premenstrual coping. Physiological factor did not have a direct influence on premenstrual coping, but indirectly affected it (${\beta}=.22$, p=.007). Psychological factors did not have an indirect or total effect on premenstrual coping, but directly affected it (${\beta}=-.17$, p=.036). Conclusion: These findings suggest that strategies to control physiological factors such as menstrual pain should be helpful to improve premenstrual syndrome symptoms. When developing a program to improve premenstrual coping ability and quality of menstrual related health, it is important to consider psychological factors including perceived stress and menstrual attitude and premenstrual syndrome.

Influence Comparison of Customer Satisfaction Factor using Quantile Regression Model (분위회귀모형을 이용한 고객만족도 요인의 영향력 비교)

  • Kim, Seong-Yoon;Kim, Yong-Tae;Lee, Sang-Jun
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.125-132
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    • 2015
  • It is current situation that a number of issues are being raised how the weight is calculated from customer satisfaction survey. This study investigated how the weight of satisfaction for each quantile is different by comparing ordinary least square regression model to quantile regression model and carried out bootstrap verification to find the influence difference of regression coefficient for each quantile. As the analysis result of using R(Quantreg package) that is open software, it appeared that there was the influence size of satisfaction factor along study result and quantile and there was the significant difference statistically regarding regression coefficient for each quantile. So, to use quantile regression model that offers the influence of satisfaction factor for each customer group along satisfaction level would contribute to plan the quantitative convergence policy for customer satisfaction.

A Study for Lifetime Predition of Expansion Joint Using HILS (HILS 기법을 적용한 신축관 이음 수명예측에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Jung-Soo;Cho, Sueng-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.138-142
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    • 2018
  • This study used HILS to test an expansion joint, which is vulnerable to the water hammer effect. The operation data for the HIL simulator was the length rate of the expansion joint by the water hammer, which was used for life prediction based on the vibration durability. For the vibration durability test, the internal pressure of the expansion joint was assumed to be a factor of the durability life, and the lifetime prediction model equation was obtained by curve fitting the lifetime data at each pressure. During the test, the major failure modes of crack and water leakage occurred on the surface of the bellows part. The lifetime prediction model typically follows an inverse power law model. The pressure is a stress factor, and the model is effective in only a specific environment. Therefore, another stress factor such as temperature will be added and considered for a mixed lifetime prediction model in the future.

A Confirmatory Factor Analysis for Quality Competitiveness Excellence Company Evaluation Indicators (품질경쟁력 우수기업 평가지표의 확인적 요인분석)

  • Park, Dong Joon;Yun, Yeboon;Yoon, Min
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.101-111
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    • 2020
  • Companies struggle to make their best products with high quality and service at a competitive price in global markets. However, customer needs and requirements keep changing with a variety of situations. Companies that face the changes can not stay the same and make an effort to adapt themselves to new circumstances. They would probably review the overall management system that is currently implementing to improve management efficiency. Among other things, quality might be considered to be a crucial element if they are manufacturing industries to be sustained in global markets. KSA (Korean Standards Association) is a government-affiliated organization under the Ministry of Trade, Infrastructure, and Energy. It is a Korean standards provider for quality and service industry. KSA confers national commendations for organizations, quality circles, artisans, QCEC (Quality Competitive Excellent Company), and the most honorable KNQA (Korean National Quality Award) every year. KSA established KNQA on the basis of Malcom Baldrige National Quality Award, Deming Prize, and European Quality Award. Research on quality awards shows that there are many similarities in the framework. Although KSA summarizes two factors for 13 evaluation indicators in the quality competitive excellent model of QCEC, the categorization is ambiguous to explain them according to earlier studies. We performed a deep analysis of foreign quality awards and background for KNQA and QCEC. We conducted a content analysis of KNQA and QCEC and matched evaluation items that were closely related. We proposed a quality competitiveness model with three factors, Technology, System, and Tools, summarizing 13 evaluation indicators in QCEC. Based on audit data for six years from 2012 to 2017 we carried out a confirmatory factor analysis for the proposed model by examining the model validity and fitness.

Concentration of Citrus Essence Aroma Model Solution by Pervaporation (투과증발법을 이용한 감귤 Essence Aroma 모델액의 농축)

  • Lee Yong-Taek;Park Joong-Won;Shin Dong-Ho
    • Membrane Journal
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.68-76
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    • 2006
  • This is the research about the concentration of trace citrus flavor components in water by pervaporation. We have investigated the permeation characteristics depending on the material and formation of membranes using four siloxane-based polymer composite membranes. We have also chosen the optimal membrane and investigated the permeation characteristics depending on the feed temperature, concentration and flow rate. And then it has been analyzed by using resistance-in series model. In the permeation experiment of citrus essence aroma model solution through the four siloxane-based polymer composite membranes, PVDF/POMS membranes have showed the best flavor flux and enrichment factor. As a result of the permeation experiment depending on the feed temperature, concentration and flow rate, we can find that as the feed temperature and concentration increase, the flavor flux increases while the enrichment factor decreases. And the flavor flux and enrichment factor increased as the flow rate increases.