• Title/Summary/Keyword: maximum-likelihood

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A Study on Estimating of Probability Distribution and Mean Life of Bridge Member for Effective Maintenance of the Bdrige (효율적인 고속도로 교량의 유지관리를 위한 교량 부재별 수명분포 및 평균수명 산정 방안 연구)

  • Lee, Yongjun;Lee, Minjae
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.57-65
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    • 2016
  • This study found a proper parametric life distribution based on maintenance history data of each bridge member under the jurisdiction of the Korea Expressway Corporation for the past 10 years by introducing the concept of reliability and suggested a measure to calculate the mean life and reliability of each bridge member using the parameter obtained with the maximum-likelihood classification. As a result of analyzing the exponential distribution, weibull distribution and log normal distribution being utilized frequently in order to find the parametric life distribution type which well described the life data of each bridge member, it was found that the log normal distribution and weibull distribution described the characteristics of the relevant life data the best. As a result of calculating the mean life of each bridge member based on the estimated parameter, the average life of the steel bridge coating was 18.51 years which was the longest, followed by the bridge deck as 17.56 years. The mean life of the drainage facility and the bridge bearing were 12.27 years and 12.57 years respectively, showing the shortest life.

Organizational Culture and Community-Centered Social Inclusion Orientation Among Social Service Organizations for People with Disabilities: Focused on Market Orientation As a Mediator (장애인복지기관의 조직문화유형과 지역사회중심사회통합지향성에 관한 연구 : 시장지향성의 매개효과를 중심으로)

  • Choi, Jae-Sung;Choi, Jung-Ah;Jung, So-Yon
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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    • v.61 no.1
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    • pp.5-32
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of organizational culture types (rational culture, developmental culture, group culture, and hierarchical culture) on Community-Centered Social Inclusion Orientation(COSI) among social service organizations for people with disabilities. More specifically, this study developed and empirically tested two theoretical models where each of organizational culture types were hypothesized to affect COSI either directly or indirectly through market orientation. For data collection, self-administered type questionnaires were mailed to 416 social service organizations for people with disabilities across the nation and 293 responded (response rate: 70.4%) from June 1 to September 22, 2006. For analysis, however, only 263 respondents were used, excluding Independent living centers due to their small size and short history. Structural Equation Modeling was employed for analysis and Full Information Maximum Likelihood was used for estimation. Findings indicated that market orientation had a significant effect on COSI. In addition, developmental culture and hierarchical culture were found to affect COSI directly while rational culture and group culture were found to affect COSI indirectly through market orientation. These findings imply that market orientation needs to be emphasized as a strategy in order to enhance social inclusion orientation for those organizations. Given that all the four types of organizational culture have direct or indirect impacts on COSI, those organizations are also advised to develop the four types of organizational culture harmoniously rather than one single type of organizational culture.

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Analysis of Hydrological Impact for Long-Term Land Cover Change Using the WMS HEC-1 Model in the Upstream Watershed of Pyeongtaek Gauging Station of Anseong-cheon (WMS HEC-1을 이용한 안성천 평택수위관측소 상류유역의 수문 경년변화 분석)

  • Kim, Seong-Joon;Park, Geun-Ae;Jung, In-Kyun;Kwon, Hyung-Joong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.609-621
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    • 2003
  • The purpose of this study is to evaluate the hydrological impact due to temporal land cover change by gradual urbanization of upstream watershed of Pyeongtaek gauging station of Anseong -cheon. WMS HEC-1 was adopted, and DEM with 200$\times$200m resolution and hydrologic soil group from 1:50,000 soil map were prepared. Land covers of 1986, 1990, 1994 and 1999 Landsat TM images were classified by maximum likelihood method. The watershed showed a trend that forest & paddy areas decreased and urban/residential area gradually increased for the period of 14 years. The model was calibrated at 2 locations (Pyeongtaek and Gongdo) by comparing observed with simulated discharge results for 5 summer storm events from 1998 to 2001. The watershed average CN values varied from 61.7 to 62.3 for the 4 selected years. To identify the impact of streamflow by temporal area change of a target land use, a simple evaluation method that the CN values of areas except the target land use are unified as one representative CN value was suggested. By applying the method, watershed average CN value was affected in the order of paddy, forest and urban/residential, respectively.

Estimation of Markov Chain and Gamma Distribution Parameters for Generation of Daily Precipitation Data from Monthly Data (월 자료로부터 일 강수자료 생성을 위한 Markov 연쇄 및 감마분포 모수 추정)

  • Moon, Kyung Hwan;Song, Eun Young;Son, In Chang;Wi, Seung Hwan;Oh, Soonja;Hyun, Hae Nam
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.27-35
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    • 2017
  • This research was to elucidate the generation method of daily precipitation data from monthly data. We applied a combined method of Markov chain and gamma distribution function using 4 specific parameters of ${\alpha}$, ${\beta}$, p(W/W) and p(W/D) for generation of daily rainfall data using daily precipitation data for the past 30 years which were collected from the country's 23 meteorological offices. Four parameters, applied to use for the combination method, were calculated by maximum likelihood method in location of 23 sites. There are high correlations of 0.99, 0.98 and 0.98 in rainfall days, rainfall probability and mean amount of daily rainfall between measured and simulated data in case of those parameters. In case of using parameters estimated from monthly precipitation, correlation coefficients in rainfall days, rainfall probability and mean amount of daily rainfall are 0.84, 0.83 and 0.96, respectively. We concluded that a combination method with parameter estimation from monthly precipitation data can be applied, in practical purpose such as assessment of climate change in agriculture and water resources, to get daily precipitation data in Korea.

Online Purchase Intentions for Product Categories -The Functions of Internet Motivations and Online Buying Tendencies- (상품 범주별 온라인 구매도 -인터넷 동기와 온라인 구매성향 기능-)

  • Kim, Eun-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.890-901
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    • 2008
  • This study explores an initial framework for online product categorization by examining the relationships among Internet motivations, buying tendencies, and online purchase intentions for product categories. A total of 217 usable questionnaires were obtained from respondents in a southwestern state in the United States. A path model using a correlation matrix with maximum likelihood was estimated using LISREL 8.53. Findings indicated that Internet motivations consisted of four factors: Diversion, Economic, Information, and Social motivations. In addition, online products were classified into three categories based on purchase intentions: Sensory, Cognitive, and Search products. Estimated path model showed that diversion and economic motivations affected impulse buying tendency, whereas economic, information and social motivations influenced planned buying tendency in the online context. Also, the buying tendencies were significantly related to online purchase intentions for the product categories. Purchase intentions for sensory products were more strongly affected by impulse buying tendency, whereas purchase intentions for cognitive and search products were more strongly affected by planned buying tendency. Theoretical and managerial implications were discussed for devising an appropriate e-market strategy for specific product categories.

Effects of Consumer Tendencies and Positive Emotion on Impulse Buying Behavior for Apparel (의류제품 충동구매행동에 대한 소비자성향과 긍정적 감정 영향)

  • Park, Eun-Joo;Kim, Eun-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.980-990
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    • 2008
  • This study tested how impulse buying behavior for apparel was related to hedonic consumption and impulse buying tendencies and emotion in the context of shopping. A total of 290 self-administered questionnaires were obtained from college students during scheduled classes. A structural equation model using a correlation matrix with maximum likelihood was estimated for examining the relationships among consumer tendencies of hedonic consumption and impulse buying, positive emotion, and impulse buying behaviors by LISREL 8.53. Findings showed that impulse buying behaviors for apparel could be classified into planned, reminded, and fashion-oriented impulse buying typologies. Hedonic consumption and impulse buying tendencies had significant effects on positive emotion. Positive emotion had a significant effect on planned, reminded, and fashion-oriented impulse buying for apparel. This study suggests that positive emotion plays an important role in determining impulse buying behaviors relevant to hedonic and impulse buying tendencies. Managerial implications for apparel retailers are discussed.

The Study for Performance Analysis of Software Reliability Model using Fault Detection Rate based on Logarithmic and Exponential Type (로그 및 지수형 결함 발생률에 따른 소프트웨어 신뢰성 모형에 관한 신뢰도 성능분석 연구)

  • Kim, Hee-Cheul;Shin, Hyun-Cheul
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.306-311
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    • 2016
  • Software reliability in the software development process is an important issue. Infinite failure NHPP software reliability models presented in the literature exhibit either constant, monotonic increasing or monotonic decreasing failure occurrence rates per fault. In this paper, reliability software cost model considering logarithmic and exponential fault detection rate based on observations from the process of software product testing was studied. Adding new fault probability using the Goel-Okumoto model that is widely used in the field of reliability problems presented. When correcting or modifying the software, finite failure non-homogeneous Poisson process model. For analysis of software reliability model considering the time-dependent fault detection rate, the parameters estimation using maximum likelihood estimation of inter-failure time data was made. The logarithmic and exponential fault detection model is also efficient in terms of reliability because it (the coefficient of determination is 80% or more) in the field of the conventional model can be used as an alternative could be confirmed. From this paper, the software developers have to consider life distribution by prior knowledge of the software to identify failure modes which can be able to help.

The Study of Infinite NHPP Software Reliability Model from the Intercept Parameter using Linear Hazard Rate Distribution (선형위험률분포의 절편모수에 근거한 무한고장 NHPP 소프트웨어 신뢰모형에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hee-Cheul;Shin, Hyun-Cheul
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.278-284
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    • 2016
  • Software reliability in the software development process is an important issue. In infinite failure NHPP software reliability models, the fault occurrence rates may have constant, monotonic increasing or monotonic decreasing pattern. In this paper, infinite failures NHPP models that the situation was reflected for the fault occurs in the repair time, were presented about comparing property. Commonly, the software model of the infinite failures using the linear hazard rate distribution software reliability based on intercept parameter was used in business economics and actuarial modeling, was presented for comparison problem. The result is that a relatively large intercept parameter was appeared effectively form. The parameters estimation using maximum likelihood estimation was conducted and model selection was performed using the mean square error and the coefficient of determination. The linear hazard rate distribution model is also efficient in terms of reliability because it (the coefficient of determination is 90% or more) in the field of the conventional model can be used as an alternative model could be confirmed. From this paper, the software developers have to consider intercept parameter of life distribution by prior knowledge of the software to identify failure modes which can be able to help.

Comparisons of the Performance with Bayes Estimator and MLE for Control Charts Based on Geometric Distribution (기하분포에 기초한 관리도에서 베이즈추정량과 최대우도추정량 사용의 성능 비교)

  • Hong, Hwiju;Lee, Jaeheon
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.907-920
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    • 2015
  • Charts based on geometric distribution are effective to monitor the proportion of nonconforming items in high-quality processes where the in-control proportion nonconforming is low. The implementation of this chart is often based on the assumption that in-control proportion nonconforming is known or accurately estimated. However, accurate parameter estimation is very difficult and may require a larger sample size than that available in practice for high-quality process where the proportion of nonconforming items is very small. An inaccurate estimate of the parameter can result in estimated control limits that cause unreliability in the monitoring process. The maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is often used to estimate in-control proportion nonconforming. In this paper, we recommend a Bayes estimator for the in-control proportion nonconforming to incorporate practitioner knowledge and avoid estimation issues when no nonconforming items are observed in the Phase I sample. The effects of parameter estimation on the geometric chart and the geometric CUSUM chart are considered when the MLE and the Bayes estimator are used. The results show that chart performance with estimated control limits based on the Bayes estimator is generally better than that based on the MLE.

Podosphaera pannosa Causes Powdery Mildew and Rusty Spot on Peach Fruits from Korea (복숭아 과실에서 흰가루 증상 및 녹얼룩점 증상을 일으키는 Podosphaera pannosa)

  • Shin, Hyeon-Dong;Cho, Sung-Eun;Choi, In-Young;Seo, Kyoung-Won
    • The Korean Journal of Mycology
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.193-199
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    • 2018
  • The fungus, Podosphaera pannosa, was identified in 1991 as the cause of powdery mildew symptoms on peach (Prunus persica var. persica) fruit from Korea based on the morphological characteristics of the conidial state. Recently, however, in Serbia and France, the cause of 'rusty spot' found on peach fruit was identified as P. leucotricha, and the cause of 'powdery mildew' on nectarine (Prunus persica var. nucipersica) fruit was identified as P. pannosa. To confirm the identity of the Korean pathogen, we collected four samples of powdery mildew from Korean peach fruit: three with the 'powdery mildew' symptom and one with the 'rusty spot' symptom. Morphological examination of the four samples confirmed P. pannosa as the pathogen. Internal transcribed spacer sequences of rDNA were analyzed for molecular characterization. A phylogenetic tree showed that the Korean isolates were clustered into a clade containing P. pannosa from Rosa species, with high sequence similarities of more than 99%. Thus, we showed that the powdery mildew and rusty spot symptoms on peach fruits from Korea are associated with P. pannosa.