• IE interfaces
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.323-329
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• 2011

We develop a stochastic model to predict the score of a soccer match. We describe the scoring process of the soccer match as a markovian arrival process (MAP). To do this, we define a two-state underlying Markov chain, in which the two states represent the offense and defense states of the two teams to play. Then, we derive the probability vector generating function of the final scores. Numerically inverting this generating function, we obtain the desired probability distribution of the scores. Sample numerical examples are given at the end to demonstrate how to utilize this result to predict the final score of the match.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.297-319
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• 2016

Football match predictions are of great interest to fans and sports press. In the last few years it has been the focus of several studies. In this paper, we propose the Poisson regression model in order to football match outcomes. We applied the proposed methodology to two national competitions: the 2012-2013 English Premier League and the 2015 Brazilian Football League. The number of goals scored by each team in a match is assumed to follow Poisson distribution, whose average reflects the strength of the attack, defense and the home team advantage. Inferences about all unknown quantities involved are made using a Bayesian approach. We calculate the probabilities of win, draw and loss for each match using a simulation procedure. Besides, also using simulation, the probability of a team qualifying for continental tournaments, being crowned champion or relegated to the second division is obtained.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.37 no.3
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• pp.323-338
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• 2024

This study analyzes the Korean professional volleyball league and predict match outcomes using popular machine learning classification methods. Match data from the 2012/2013 to 2022/2023 seasons for both male and female leagues were collected, including match details. Two different data structures were applied to the models: Separating matches results into two teams and performance differentials between the home and away teams. These two data structures were applied to construct a total of four predictive models, encompassing both male and female leagues. As specific variable values used in the models are unavailable before the end of matches, the results of the most recent 3 to 4 matches, up until just before today's match, were preprocessed and utilized as variables. Logistc Regrssion, Decision Tree, Bagging, Random Forest, Xgboost, Adaboost, and Light GBM, were employed for classification, and the model employing Random Forest showed the highest predictive performance. The results indicated that while significant variables varied by gender and data structure, set success rate, blocking points scored, and the number of faults were consistently crucial. Notably, our win-loss prediction model's distinctiveness lies in its ability to provide pre-match forecasts rather than post-event predictions.

• Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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• 2003.04a
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• pp.2198-2204
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• 2003

In order to make a match of the insufficient direct solar radiation, in this study, the target output is lowered to 9 kW smaller than 25 kW in former studies. It is also necessary to match the collector/receiver with engine/generator systems to accomplish the power level of a system. The simulation analyses of a dish solar power system with stirling engine are totally carried out to predict the system performance with the designed values. In addition, an influence of direct solar radiation on system performance and operation control is discussed in simulation. It is found that the diameter of concentrator could be made small to 8 m regardless of slope errors with 2.5 and 5.0 mrad radiation, and the operation range of mean pressure control. is wide even if the direct solar radiation is a quit low.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.230-239
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• 1998

Though limited, Model Human Processor (MHP) has been used to explain the complex users' behaviors during human-computer interactions in a simplified manner. MHP consists of perceptual, cognitive and motor systems, each with processors and memories interacting with each other in serial or parallel mode. The important parameters of memory include the storage capacity, the decay time, and the code type of a memorized item. The important parameter of a processor is the cycle time. Using these features of the model, this study developed a computerized cognitive process simulator to predict the cognitive process time of a class match task process. An experimental validity test result showed that the mean prediction time for cognitive process of the class match task simulated 50 times by the simulator was consistent with the mean cognitive process time of the same task performed by 37 subjects. Animation of the data flow during the class match task simulation will help understand the invisible human cognitive process.

• Information Systems Review
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.139-154
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• 2006

Recommender systems help users find their interesting items more easily or provide users with meaningful items based on their preferences. Collaborative filtering(CF) recommender systems, the most successful recommender system, use opinions of users to recommend for an active user who needs recommendation. That is, ratings which users have voted on items to indicate preference on them are the source for making recommendation. Although CF systems are designed only to use users' preferences as the source of recommendation, use of some available information is believed to increase both the performance and the accuracy of CF systems. In this paper, we propose a CF recommender system which utilizes both degree of match and demographic information(e.g., occupation, gender, age) to increase the performance and the accuracy. Since more and more information is accumulated in CF systems, it is important to reduce the data volume while maintaining the same or the higher level of accuracy. We used both degree of match and demographic information as criteria for reducing the data volume, thereby naturally enhancing the performance. It is shown that using degree of match improves the prediction accuracy too in CF systems and also that using some demographic information also results in better accuracy.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.5-31
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• 2010

The purpose of this study is to develop a system dynamics model for growth prediction of low birth weight infants(LBWIs) based on nutrition. This growth prediction model consists of 9 modules; body weight, height, carbohydrate, protein, lipid, micronutrient, water, activity and energy module. The results of the model simulation match well with the percentiles of weights and heights of the Korean infants, also with the growth records of 55 LBWIs, under 37 weeks of gestational age, whose weights are appropriate for their gestational age. This model can be used to understand the current growth mode of LBWIs, predict the future growth of LBWIs, and be utilized as a tool for controlling the nutrient intake for the optimal growth of LBWIs in actual practice.

• Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.157-165
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• 2022

As the stock market is affected by various circumstances including economic and political variables, predicting the stock market is considered a still open problem. When combined with corporate financial statement data analysis, which is used as fundamental analysis, and technical analysis with a short data generation cycle, there is a problem that the time domain does not match. Our proposed method, LSTE the operating profit and market outlook of a petrochemical company and estimates the sales and operating profit of the company, it was possible to solve the above-mentioned problems and improve the accuracy of stock price prediction. Extensive experiments on real-world stock data show that our method outperforms the 8.58% relative improvements on average w.r.t. accuracy.

• IE interfaces
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.133-141
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• 2007

As the sales of the Sports Toto, the Korean lottery on sports games, have increased significantly in recent five years, interest in predicting the various results of sports matches has also been raised. Dixon and Coles (1997) proposed a bivariate Poisson model to predict the results of English soccer league matches. In this paper, we pay attention to the physical condition of players that may affect soccer match results and revise Dixon and Coles' model to consider probable fatigue due to the players' short rest followed by their frequent matches. We observed the fatigue effect in the match results, and found positive betting returns available when using our prediction model. Furthermore, the validity of probability-based odds in European and Korean betting markets is analyzed.

• International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.214-222
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• 2021

Recently, the growth of e-commerce in Saudi Arabia has been exponential, bringing new remarkable challenges. A naive approach for product matching and categorization is needed to help consumers choose the right store to purchase a product. This paper presents a machine learning approach for product matching that combines deep learning techniques with standard artificial neural networks (ANNs). Existing methods focused on product matching, whereas our model compares products based on unstructured descriptions. We evaluated our electronics dataset model from three business-to-consumer (B2C) online stores by putting the match products collectively in one dataset. The performance evaluation based on k-mean classifier prediction from three real-world online stores demonstrates that the proposed algorithm outperforms the benchmarked approach by 80% on average F1-measure.