IE interfaces (산업공학)

Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers (대한산업공학회)
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Predicting the Score of a Soccer Match by Use of a Markovian Arrival Process

마코비안 도착과정을 이용한 축구경기 득점결과의 예측

  • Kim, Nam-Ki (Department of Industrial Engineering, Chonnam National University) ;
  • Park, Hyun-Min (Department of Business Administration, Pai Chai University)
  • Received : 2011.08.31
  • Accepted : 2011.10.27
  • Published : 2011.12.01
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Abstract

We develop a stochastic model to predict the score of a soccer match. We describe the scoring process of the soccer match as a markovian arrival process (MAP). To do this, we define a two-state underlying Markov chain, in which the two states represent the offense and defense states of the two teams to play. Then, we derive the probability vector generating function of the final scores. Numerically inverting this generating function, we obtain the desired probability distribution of the scores. Sample numerical examples are given at the end to demonstrate how to utilize this result to predict the final score of the match.

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References

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  1. Using Data Mining Techniques to Predict Win-Loss in Korean Professional Baseball Games vol.40, pp.1, 2014, https://doi.org/10.7232/JKIIE.2014.40.1.008