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Quantitative uncertainty analysis for the climate change impact assessment using the uncertainty delta method (기후변화 영향평가에서의 Uncertainty Delta Method를 활용한 정량적 불확실성 분석)

  • Lee, Jae-Kyoung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.spc
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    • pp.1079-1089
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    • 2018
  • The majority of existing studies for quantifying uncertainties in climate change impact assessments suggest only the uncertainties of each stage, and not the total uncertainty and its propagation in the whole procedure. Therefore, this study has proposed a new method, the Uncertainty Delta Method (UDM), which can quantify uncertainties using the variances of projections (as the UDM is derived from the first-order Taylor series expansion), to allow for a comprehensive quantification of uncertainty at each stage and also to provide the levels of uncertainty propagation, as follows: total uncertainty, the level of uncertainty increase at each stage, and the percentage of uncertainty at each stage. For quantifying uncertainties at each stage as well as the total uncertainty, all the stages - two emission scenarios (ES), three Global Climate Models (GCMs), two downscaling techniques, and two hydrological models - of the climate change assessment for water resources are conducted. The total uncertainty took 5.45, and the ESs had the largest uncertainty (4.45). Additionally, uncertainties are propagated stage by stage because of their gradual increase: 5.45 in total uncertainty consisted of 4.45 in emission scenarios, 0.45 in climate models, 0.27 in downscaling techniques, and 0.28 in hydrological models. These results indicate the projection of future water resources can be very different depending on which emission scenarios are selected. Moreover, using Fractional Uncertainty Method (FUM) by Hawkins and Sutton (2009), the major uncertainty contributor (emission scenario: FUM uncertainty 0.52) matched with the results of UDM. Therefore, the UDM proposed by this study can support comprehension and appropriate analysis of the uncertainty surrounding the climate change impact assessment, and make possible a better understanding of the water resources projection for future climate change.

Changes in Means and Extreme Events of Changma-Period Precipitation Since mid-Joseon Dynasty in Seoul, Korea (조선 중기 이후 서울의 장마철 강수 평균과 극한강수현상의 변화)

  • Choi, Gwangyong
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.51 no.1
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    • pp.23-40
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    • 2016
  • In this study, long-term changes in means and extreme events of precipitation during summer rainy period called Changma (late June~early September) are examined based on rainfall data observed by Chukwooki during Joseon Dynasty (1777~1907) and by modern rain-gauge onward (1908~2015) in Seoul, Korea. Also, characterizations of the relevant changes in synoptic climate fields in East Asia are made by the examination of the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis I data. Analyses of 239-year time series of precipitation data demonstrate that the total precipitation as well as their inter-annual variability during the entire Changma period (late June~early September) has increased in the late 20th century and onward. Notably, since the early 1990s the means and extreme events during the summer Changma period (late June~mid-July) and Changma break period (late July~early August) has significantly increased, resulting in less clear demarcations of sub-Changma periods. In this regard, comparisons of synoptic climate fields before and after the early 1990s reveal that in recent decades the subtropical high pressure has expanded in the warmer Pacific as the advection of high-latitude air masses toward East Asia was enhanced due to more active northerly wind vector around the high pressure departure core over Mongolia. Consequently, it is suggested that the enhancement of rising motions due to more active confluence of the two different air masses along the northwestern borders of the Pacific might lead to the increases of the means and extreme events of Changma precipitation in Seoul in recent decades.

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A Study on Availabilities of Self-evaluation and Peer-evaluation of Team Activities in Computer Science Basic Classes (컴퓨터학부 기초전공 수업에서 팀 활동에 대한 자기평가와 동료평가의 활용성 연구)

  • Cho, Soosun
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.107-114
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    • 2022
  • In this paper, availabilities of student-evaluations of team activities in the computer science basic classes were analysed. For the purpose, correlation analysis was conducted to investigate the relationships among peer-evaluation, self-evaluation, and academic achievement, and it was found that there was a statistically significant positive correlation among them. Moreover, the gap between peer-evaluation scores and self-evaluation scores was analyzed. When a one-sample t-test was performed, it was found that the gap was very significant. However, the size of the gap was not different between the two classes. That is, regardless of grade level, the students' self-evaluation scores tended to be on average higher than the evaluation scores received from peers. Finally, when analyzing the relationship between the gap in peer-evaluation and self-evaluation scores and academic achievement, there was no significant correlation between the gap in scores and academic achievement. In other words, there was no difference in the tendency of evaluation for students with high or low academic achievement. The results of the analysis shows the availability of student-evaluations of team activities in the evaluation of team-based instruction. The high correlation between self-evaluation and peer-evaluation indicates the objectivity of student-evaluation. Although it is clear that the self-evaluation score is higher on average than the score received from peers, it is more useful in terms of objectivity because it does not vary according to grade, subject, or academic achievement.

Verifying the Causal Relationship of the Dancer's Ability to Trust and Objectives and Confidence (무용수의 능력믿음과 목표 및 자신감의 인과 관계 검증)

  • Lee, Dong-Sook
    • Journal of Korea Entertainment Industry Association
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.51-62
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    • 2020
  • The study was conducted to verify the causality of the ability of high school and college dance majors to influence the successful goal orientation and how the change in goal affects the sense of dance performance self-confidence. In this regard, 172 dance majors were collected to collect data on their belief in dance ability, the direction of mastery goal of approach and avoidance, and the measure of confidence in dance performance, and the results of their studies were derived through correlation and structural equation analysis and path analysis. The analysis results showed reasonable factor structure and reliability based on the preceding study of feasibility analysis results between variables. Thus, the structural equation for the study variables confirmed that the theoretical hypothesis was suitable, and the path of each variable was verified through the path analysis. The analysis showed that the increased belief that ability can be improved by effort has been found to improve the effort and consequently the confidence in dancing. Also, the fixed belief that ability is not changing in a fixed sense has been found to affect the avoidance goal and reduce confidence. It can be interpreted that the more one believes that one can change one's ability by effort, the more one strengthens one's actions to achieve one's goal, thereby improving one's dance confidence. Therefore, it is deemed necessary for subsequent studies to explore whether the paths of these models differ by their major or dance careers, and to apply variables that can measure the success or failure of actual performances to enhance the explanatory power of these research variables.

A Spatial Statistical Approach to Residential Differentiation (I): Developing a Spatial Separation Measure (거주지 분화에 대한 공간통계학적 접근 (I): 공간 분리성 측도의 개발)

  • Lee, Sang-Il
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.42 no.4
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    • pp.616-631
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    • 2007
  • Residential differentiation is an academic theme which has been given enormous attention in urban studies. This is due to the fact that residential segregation can be seen as one of the best indicators for socio-spatial dialectics occurring on urban space. Measuring how one population group is differentiated from the other group in terms of residential space has been a focal point in the residential segregation studies. The index of dissimilarity has been the most extensively used one. Despite its popularity, however, it has been accused of inability to capture the degree of spatial clustering that unevenly distributed population groups usually display. Further, the spatial indices of segregation which have been introduced to edify the problems of the index of dissimilarity also have some drawbacks: significance testing methods have never been provided; recent advances in spatial statistics have not been extensively exploited. Thus, the main purpose of the research is to devise a spatial separation measure which is expected to gauge not only how unevenly two population groups are distributed over urban space, but also how much the uneven distributions are spatially clustered (spatial dependence). The main results are as follows. First, a new measure is developed by integrating spatial association measures and spatial chi-square statistics. A significance testing method based on the generalized randomization test is also provided. Second, a case study of residential differentiation among groups by educational attainment in major Korean metropolitan cities clearly shows the applicability of the analytical framework presented in the paper.

The Historical Geography of Land-Use and Agriculture Along the Lower Nam-River Floodplains (남강 하류 범람원의 토지이용과 농업형태 변화에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jeon;Son, Ill
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.31-47
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    • 1998
  • This paper deals with the historical geography of land-use and agriculture along the Lower Nam-River floodplains. The reclamation process of the river floodplains, the cultivation methods on the reclaimed lands, and the land-use patterns and processes are investigated. The Nam River, one of the major tributaries of the Nakdong River, flows through the boundary between Ham-An and Eu-Ryong Guns. Larger floodplains are located in Ham-An Gun. The floodplains of Ham-An Gun have been surveyed intensively in this study. In South Korea, the alluvial plains, mostly located along the river valleys, have been reclaimed to provide fertile agricultural lands. Those along the upper river valleys were reclaimed before those along the lower river valleys. The flood-plains of Han-An Gun were reclaimed to be the largest agricultural lands of the Gun. The natural levees along the Lower Nam-River Valley were identified before the reclamation processes but now hardly identified. Relatively larger floodplains are located along the tributary streams of the Nam River. Often there are low-lying back swamps between the natural levees and the hills/mountains that rise above the floodplains. The back swamps, called 'natural bog lands' in this region, have been reduced in size and in number through reclamation for the purpose of agricultural and industrial land-uses. Now about ten 'natural bog lands' are found in the Ham-An floodplains, and some of them are being reclaimed for the industrial land-use. This study suggests the emergent need of conservation for the remaining 'natural bog lands' in terms of ecology. Seven agricultural fields of large size, originated from the Nam-River floodplains, are identified in this study: Kun(큰들), Chung-Am(정암들), Chang-chi(장지들), Baek-San(백산들), Ha-Ki(하기들), Gu-Hae(구혜들), and Chang-Po(장포들) fields. The Kun field was reclaimed during the Japanese control and the Gu-Hae, in the 1950s. All of those except the above two fields were reclaimed after the mid-1960s. The Nam-River Dam in Chinju, completed in 1969, contributed the reclamation processes along the Lower Nam-River floodplains. The rice acreage of the region has been reduced slowly since 1970 but the rice production of the region has been relatively stable (Table 4). Rice culture had been the most important agriculture on the reclaimed lands for decades before the greenhouse vegetable cultivation became more important in the 1980s. Among the vegetables cultivated in the greenhouse, the watermelon is the dominantly leading one. Watermelons are usually harvested two or three times in a year though it is possible to harvest four times in one year. The rotation of watermelons and rice is common in the region. It is known the physical conditions of the Nam-River floodplains in Ham-An Gun is the most suitable for watermelon cultivation in South Korea.

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Physical Properties of Pumice from Mt. Baekdu Volcano (백두산 부석의 물리적 특성)

  • Yun, Sung-Hyo
    • The Journal of the Petrological Society of Korea
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.337-345
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    • 2015
  • Pumices from the summit area of the Mt. Baekdu was analysed with respect to the physical characteristics. Fallout pumice deposits around the somma of the Cheonji caldera, Mt. Baekdu consist mainly of white pumices, but black pumices and gray pumices are also displayed together. White pumices are mainly rhyolitic($SiO_2$ 71.1%) and black pumices are trachytic($SiO_2$ 64.8%) in composition, and gray pumices are intermediate composition($SiO_2$ 68.0%) between white pumices and black pumices. Average density of felsic magma formed the Mt. Baekdu pumices is $2.45g/cm^3$ in anhydrous magma and $2.33g/cm^3$ in hydrous magma, respectively. We determined the density and calculated the vesicularity of three different coloured pumices, which collected in the vicinity of the Waho-bong(2,566 m) and Gwanmyeonbong(2,526 m) of southern somma of the Cheonji caldera, Mt. Baekdu. Average density of the yellow pumices was measured as $0.74g/cm^3$, black pumices as $0.75g/cm^3$, and gray t0 white pumices as $0.73g/cm^3$. Average density regardless of the colour of pumices was nearly constant at $0.75g/cm^3$. Vesicularity of pumices is calculated to be 67.8~69.4% and these pumices can be classified as a highly vesicular according to classification of vesiculation characteristics.

Current Status and Future Directions of the Dream Start Program in Korea (드림스타트, 지난 10년의 성장과 향후 10년을 위한 과제)

  • Lee, Sang-Gyun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Child Welfare
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    • no.59
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    • pp.115-150
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study was to examine the current status of the Dream Start program from the perspective of social investment strategy, and as well as to suggest future directions. The program has become a major government welfare program in korea since it was introduced in 2007 as a demonstration project, following research evidence and a sound rationale about the extensive success of Head Start in the U.S. and Sure Start Programme in the UK. The aim of Dream Start is to provide integrated services for the vulnerable children, aged 0 to 12, and their families who are identified using a national administration data record of disadvantaged families with children. In order to promote the vulnerable child's well-being, to overcome inequalities, and to give every child the best start in life, Dream Start adopted a local, "whole family" approach. Case management services form an essential part of the Dream Start to customize and integrate comprehensive services such as counseling, health care, parenting advice and education, academic tutoring, and after-school activities. Although there has been a general improvement in key factors since its inception, Dream Start has not yet sufficiently shown the strong and hoped-for impact. In the meantime, Dream Start must be given financial expansion and extensive policy supports to get the chance of realizing and evaluating long-term gains for children and their families. More work need to be done to overcome inequalities and to make Dream Start service more accessible for the most disadvantaged families with children in Korea. Practical and policy suggestions for future directions of the Dream Start programs were discussed.

A Study on the Specialized Classrooms of Governmental Secondary Schools in the Japanese Colonial Era -Focused on Architectural Drawings for Collected by National Archives of Korea (일제 강점기 관립 중등학교 특별교실에 관한 연구 -국가기록원 소장 학교건축 도면을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Jeong-Woo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.2476-2483
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    • 2014
  • This study aims to review the characteristics of specialized classrooms for governmental secondary schools in the Japanese Colonial Era by analyzing architectural drawings collected by National Archives of Korea. The results of this study are summarized as follows 1) Under the influence of Japanese science promotion of that time, specialized classrooms for science were considered as one of essential facilities. Typically exclusive specialized classrooms were assigned to two major science subjects : physics-chemistry and biology. 2) To science specialized classrooms, ancillary rooms for preparation, experiment equipment and specimen were attached and science lecture room with stepped floor was planned additionally only for the lecture on theories and the demonstration of experiment. 3) Specialized classrooms for science were zoned independently of other facilities because of the special equipments and safety. 4) Art rooms were common to both boys' and girls' schools but concerning music rooms, girls' schools had special concerns, whereas boys' schools did not. 5) Specialized classrooms for homemaking subject of girls' school were as much important as those for science subjects of boys' school. 6) Some early-established Korean boys' schools had handicraft rooms which were the symbol of vocational education-oriented, unequal policy on Koreans. Though not general cases, specialized classrooms for geography-history were planned for Japanese boys' school. Restricted to governmental secondary schools but considering the uncommon state of specialized classrooms of that time, these characteristics show conditions of early time when special classrooms were introduced into Korea.

The Opinions of Dental Related Major Students on Dental Hygienists (치과관련학과 대학생들의 치과위생사에 대한 인식조사)

  • Kim, Young-Seok
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.7
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    • pp.583-589
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    • 2020
  • This study investigated perceptions and opinions on medical personnel related to dental hygienists. The subjects of this study were 25 students, including dentistry students, dental hygiene students, dental technology students, and nursing students. The survey items consisted of general information, the pros and cons of medical hygienists and their reasons, the scope of legal work, medical practice, and the professionalism of dental hygienists. Frequency analysis and 𝑥2-tests were used for the analysis method. As a result of the study, the pros and cons of the dental hygienist's medicalization were 56.2% in favor and 40% in opposition. There were significant differences in the opinions of the dental hygienists involved with medical hygiene by 90% and 25% in nursing students. In addition, there was a significant difference in the perception of the legal work of dental hygienists and the rate of recognition of medical activities among the departments. In conclusion, it is expected that understanding and support for dental hygienists will be achieved only if proper knowledge and education about dental hygienists are made available in other departments.