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Leukocyte count and hypertension in the health screening data of some rural and urban residents (일부 농촌과 도시의 건강선별조사 자료로 본 백혈구수와 고혈압과의 관계)

  • Lee, Choong-Won;Yoon, Nung-Ki;Lee, Sung-Kwan
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.24 no.3 s.35
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    • pp.363-372
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    • 1991
  • We used the health screening data of some rural and urban residents to examine the cross-sectional association between leukocyte count and hypertension. The 206 male and 203 female rural residents were selected by multi-stage cluster sampling method in Kyungsan-Kun area of Kyungbuk province in 1985 and 600 urban residents were selected by the same sampling method as the rural residents in Daegu city of the same province in 1986 compatible with age-sex distribution of Daegu city of 1985 census, but of whom 384 actually responded. The rest of 600 were replaced by age and sex with those who were members of the medical insurance plan visiting the health management department of the university hospital to get the biannual preventive medical checkups. Excluded in the analysis were those having hypertensive history, diseases and extreme outlying values of the screening tests, leaving 373 rural and 571 urban residents. Leukocyte count was measured with ELT-8 Laser shadow method and the unit $cells/mm^3$, Blood pressures were determined with an aneroid sphygmomanometer with pre-standardized method and hypertensives were defined as those showing systolic blood pressure more than 140mmHg and/or diastolic blood pressure more than 90mmHg. Total residents pooled (N=944) showed a significant difference between hypertensives and normotensives ($6965.93{\pm}1997.01\;vs\;6490.61{\pm}1941.32,\;P=0.00$) and in rural residents was noted the similar significant difference (P=0.03). None of significant differences were noted in any stratum stratified by residency and sex. Compared to the lowest quintile of WBC, 2/5 quintile showed odds ratio 0.99 (95% Confidence interval, Ci 0.62-1.59), 3/5 quintile 1.41 (95% CI 0.90-2.21), 4/5 quintile 1.76 (95% CI. 1.14-2.72), and highest quintile 1.80 (1.15-2.82) in the total residents. Likelihood ratio test for linear trend for it indicated a significant trend ($X^2_{trend}=5.53,\;df=1,\;P<0.05$). There were no other significant odds ratios compared to the lowest quintile of WBC in strata stratified by residency and sex. The odds ratios in total residents which had showed significant odds ratios became nonsignificant and of reduced magnitude after controlling age, frequency of smoking and drinking with multiple logistic. regression. In each stratum, it changed magnitudes of odds ratios slightly and unstably. None of the trend tests showed any significant trend. These results suggest that the Friedman et al's finding of association between leukocyte count and hypertension may be due to an statistical type I error resulting from the data dredging in an exploratory study, in which more than 800 variables were screened as possible predictors of hypertension.

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Studies on the Constituents of Gynostemma pentaphyllum Makino (덩굴차(Gynostemma pentaphylum Makino)의 성분에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Heon-Ok;Ko, Young-Su
    • Korean journal of food and cookery science
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    • v.6 no.4 s.13
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    • pp.69-83
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    • 1990
  • Gynostemma pentaphyllum Makino is a kind of perennial liana plant belonging to the Cucurbitaceae family. Since it was first discovered and reported to the Japanese academy in 1977, it came to be widely known to China and Southeast Asia areas as well as Japan. In Korea its name began to appear in the first half of 1980's, and it is now being nationwidely cultivated and popularized as tea stuffs. Gynostemma pentaphyllum Makino has remarkably strong propagation power. In addition. since it contains a great quantity of beneficial components, especially saponin it is believed to have excellent medical effects, too. This study was undertaken to examine the value of Gynostemma pentaphyllum Makino as a health-promotint tea, by investigating the components creating the flaver of tea and the saponin ingredient making medical effects as well as by inspecting whether Gynostemma pentaphyllum Makino products show different component arrangements according to their growing districts. As raw materials of the experiment, three kinds of Gynostemma pentaphyllum Makino samples produced in Suwon, Geochang and Uleungdo were taken. To accomplish the formerly stated goals, the contained quantity of the proximate composition, free sugar, reducing sugar, free amino acid, minerals, tannin, caffeine and vitamin C were measured respectively and compared between the samples, while the saponin content was compared with heat extracted from panax ginseng. The results of the experiment are as follows: 1. In the case of the proximate composition, the crude fat content was the highest in the Gymostemma pentaphyllum Makino material from Geochang (1.62%), the second in that from Suwon (1.56%), and the lowest in that from Uleungdo (1.0%). In addition the Geochang: produced sample had the greatest quantity of the crude protein and ash contents: the order of the crude Protein content was the Geochang produced (17.83%), the Suwon-produced (15.87%), and the Uleungdo-produced(12.28%), while that of the ash content was the Geochang-produced (14.80%), the Uleungdo-produced(10.17%), and the Suwon-produced(9.34%). 2. As for the reducing sugar contents, the Suwon-produced scored the highest of the three (3.3%), while the Geochang-produced was 1.3% and the Uleungdo-produced 0.5%. The total content of free sugar was 1.07% (the Suwon-produced), and 0.49% (the Geochang-produced) respectively but the sample from Uleungdo showed almost no free sugar content. The contained quantity of fructose and glucose was the highest among the kinds of free sugar both in the Suwon-produced and in the Geochang-produced. 3. The content of amino acid was the highest in the Suwon-produced(1.41%), the second in the Geochang-produced(1.37%), and the lowest in the Uleungdo-produced(0.53%). In the experiment, sixteen kinds of amino acid were extracted-Asp. Thr. Ser. Glu. Gly. Ala. Val. Het. Ileu. Leu. Tyr. Phe. Lys. His. Arg. Try. All of them except glutamic acid and methionine showed the highest quantity score in the Suwon-produced, while the glutamic acid content was the higest in the Uleungdo-produced and the methionine content in the Geochang-produced. The sequential arrangement of the sixteen contents according to their magnitude ranged from glycine, aspartic acid, and glutamic acid (the highest) to tryptophan, serine and lysine (the lowest). 4. Ten kinds of mineral were detected-Ca, Mn, Cd, K, Na, Pb, Mg, Fe, Zn, Cu. Among them, the content of Cd, Na, Mg, Zn and Fe was the highest in the Geochang-produced and that of K in the Suwon-produced. 5. The Geochang-produced materials contained much a larger quantity of tannin (6.3%) than the Suwon-produced (2.6%). Neither caffeine nor vitamin C was detected in the three kinds of materials. 6. In the case of the saponin content the Geochang-produced showd 2.39%, the Uleungdo-produced 1.77% and the Suwon-produced 1.49% respectively. However, it was found also that the saponin content of Gymostemma pentaphyllum Makino was the same kind as that of panax ginseng.

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Dosimetry of the Low Fluence Fast Neutron Beams for Boron Neutron Capture Therapy (붕소-중성자 포획치료를 위한 미세 속중성자 선량 특성 연구)

  • Lee, Dong-Han;Ji, Young-Hoon;Lee, Dong-Hoon;Park, Hyun-Joo;Lee, Suk;Lee, Kyung-Hoo;Suh, So-Heigh;Kim, Mi-Sook;Cho, Chul-Koo;Yoo, Seong-Yul;Yu, Hyung-Jun;Gwak, Ho-Shin;Rhee, Chang-Hun
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.66-73
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    • 2001
  • Purpose : For the research of Boron Neutron Capture Therapy (BNCT), fast neutrons generated from the MC-50 cyclotron with maximum energy of 34.4 MeV in Korea Cancer Center Hospital were moderated by 70 cm paraffin and then the dose characteristics were investigated. Using these results, we hope to establish the protocol about dose measurement of epi-thermal neutron, to make a basis of dose characteristic of epi-thermal neutron emitted from nuclear reactor, and to find feasibility about accelerator-based BNCT. Method and Materials : For measuring the absorbed dose and dose distribution of fast neutron beams, we used Unidos 10005 (PTW, Germany) electrometer and IC-17 (Far West, USA), IC-18, ElC-1 ion chambers manufactured by A-150 plastic and used IC-l7M ion chamber manufactured by magnesium for gamma dose. There chambers were flushed with tissue equivalent gas and argon gas and then the flow rate was S co per minute. Using Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) code, transport program in mixed field with neutron, photon, electron, two dimensional dose and energy fluence distribution was calculated and there results were compared with measured results. Results : The absorbed dose of fast neutron beams was $6.47\times10^{-3}$ cGy per 1 MU at the 4 cm depth of the water phantom, which is assumed to be effective depth for BNCT. The magnitude of gamma contamination intermingled with fast neutron beams was $65.2{\pm}0.9\%$ at the same depth. In the dose distribution according to the depth of water, the neutron dose decreased linearly and the gamma dose decreased exponentially as the depth was deepened. The factor expressed energy level, $D_{20}/D_{10}$, of the total dose was 0.718. Conclusion : Through the direct measurement using the two ion chambers, which is made different wall materials, and computer calculation of isodose distribution using MCNP simulation method, we have found the dose characteristics of low fluence fast neutron beams. If the power supply and the target material, which generate high voltage and current, will be developed and gamma contamination was reduced by lead or bismuth, we think, it may be possible to accelerator-based BNCT.

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Air Cavity Effects on the Absorbed Dose for 4-, 6- and 10-MV X-ray Beams : Larynx Model (4-, 6-, 10-MV X-선원에서 공기동이 흡수선량에 미치는 효과 : 후두모형)

  • Kim Chang-Seon;Yang Dae-Sik;Kim Chul-Yong;Choi Myung-Sun
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.393-402
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    • 1997
  • Purpose : When an x-ray beam of small field size is irradiated to target area containing an air cavity, such as larynx, the underdosing effect is observed in the region near the interfaces of air and soft tissue. With a larynx model, air cavity embedded in tissue-equivalent material, this study is intonded for examining Parameters, such as beam quality, field size, and cavity size, to affect the dose distribution near the air cavity. Materials and Methods : Three x-rar beams, 4-, 6- and 10-MV, were employed to Perform a measurement using a 2cm $(width){\times}L$ (length in cm, one side of x-ray field used 2cm (height) air cavity in the simulated larynx. A thin window parallel-plate chamber connected to an electrometer was used for a dosimetry system. A ratio of the dose at various distances from the cavity-tissue interface to the dose at the same points in a homogeneous Phantom (ebservedlexpected ratio, O/E) normalized buildup curves, and ratio of distal surface dose to dose at the maximum buildup depth were examined for various field sizes. Measurement for cavity size effect was performed by varying the height (Z) of the air cavity with the width kept constant for several field sizes. Results : No underdosing effect for 4-MV beam for fields larger than $5cm\times5cm$ was found For both 6- and 10-MV beams, the underdosing portion of the larynx at the distal surface was seen to occur for small fields, $4cm\times4cm\;and\;5cm\times5cm$. The underdosed tissue was increased in its volume with beam energy even for similar surface doses. The relative distal surface dose to maximum dose was changed to 0.99 from 0.95, 0.92, and 0.91 for 4-, 6-, and 10-MV, respectively, with increasing field size, $4cm\times4cm\;to\;8cm\times8cm$, For 6- and 10-MV beams, the dose at the surface of the cavity is measured less than the predicted by about two and three percent. respectively. but decrease was found for 4-MV beam for $5cm\times5cm$ field. For the $4cm\timesL\timesZ$ (height in cm). varying depth from 0.0 to 4.8cm, cavity, O/E> 1.0 was observed regardless of the cavity size for any field larger than about $8cm\times8cm$. Conclusion : The magnitude of underdosing depends on beam energy, field size. and cavity size for the larynx model. Based on the result of the study. caution must be used when a small field of a high quality x-ray beam is irradiated to regions including air cavities. and especially the region where the tumor extends to the surface. Low quality beam. such as. 4-MV x-ray, and larger fields can be used preferably to reduce the risk of underdosing, local failure. In the case of high quality beams such as 6- and 10-MV x-rays, however. an additional boost field is recommended to add for the compensation of the underdosing region when a typically used treatment field. $8cm\times8cm$, is employed.

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Studies on the Selection for Grain Yield and Components of Yield in Wheat Breeding (소맥육종에 있어서 수량 및 수량구성형질의 선발을 위한 기초적 연구)

  • Dong-Woo Lee
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.15
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    • pp.33-59
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    • 1974
  • A series of experiments were conducted at Crop Experiment Station from 1968 to 1971 to obtain basic information on effects of selection on yield of wheat varieties. Heritability estimates, correlation and path coefficients computed for yield and yield related characters from fixed variety groups-Korean, U.S., and Japan; early and late-$F_2$ and $F_3$ generations were studied. The same estimates for fixed variety groups grown under different fertilizer levels and years were also studied. The results were summarized as follow: 1. Three variety groups classified by their origins as Korea, United States and Japan showed high heritability estimates for heading date, plant height and spike length. The heritability estimates for grain number per spike and 1, 000 grain weight were moderate and those for the number of spikes per plant and grain yield were low. Very low estimates of heritability were obtained for grain number per spike and yield of variety group from the Unites States. 2. High genotypic correlation coefficients between 1, 000 grain weight and yield were obtained for all variety groups originated from Korea, United States and Japan and early variety group, except late variety group. The genotypic correlation coefficients between grain number per spike and yield were also high for all variety groups except variety group originated from the United States. 3. The direct effects of 1, 000 grain weight in terms of path-coefficients to yield were high for all variety groups except late variety group. 4. High genotypic correlation coefficients were obtained between 1, 000 grain weight and yield in $F_2$ from. two crosses. The same degree of genotypic correlation coefficients were obtained between grain number per spike and yield, although slight differences in its magnitude were found depending upon the cross combination. 5. The analysis of path-coefficients in $F_2$ shows that the direct effects of yield components to yield were negligible. 6. The characters that showed high genotypic correlation coefficients with yield in $F_3$ were 1, 000 gnain weight and grain number per spike. These characters showed also high direct effects to yield. 7. No great variations of heritability estimates for heading date, plant height and spike length were obtained for either fertilizer responsive or non responsive variety group due to fertilizer levels applied. 8. Heritability estimates of 1, 000 grain weight in fertilizer responsive group and yield in fertilizer nonresponsive group were high as level of fertilizer increased. 9. Heritability estimates for grain number per spike and 1, 000 grain weight of fertilizer non-responsive-group were higher than those of fertilizer. responsive group. 10. Genotypic corretation coefficients between yield and 1, 000 grain weight in fertilizer responsive group were getting lower as the level of fertilizer increased and those in fertilizer non-responsive group were vice versa. 11. Genotypic correlation coefficient between yield and spike number per plant in fertilizer responsive group was high. However, the genotypic correlation coefficient between yield and spike number per plant in fertilizer non-responsive group was low. 12. The direct effects of 1, 000 grain weight to yield were higher than other yield components either in fertilizer responsive or non-responsive group regardless of levels of fertilizer applied. The spike number per plant, however, was high only when high level of fertilizers were applied to fitilizer responsive group. 13. Slight variations of heritability estimates for heading dates, plant height, spike length, grain number per spike and 1, 000 grain weight were obtained between years. However, the spike number per plant with low heritabilility showed great variation between years. 14. The character that showed high genotypic correlation coefficients with yield in two years was 1, 000 grain weight, and this character was also high in direct effect to yield in terms of path-coefficients. 15. From the above experimental results, it might be concluded that 1, 000 grain weight would be one of the most important characters to increase the effects of selection for yield in wheat breeding in Korea.

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A THREE-DIMENSIONAL FEM COMPARISON STUDY ABOUT THE FORCE, DISPLACEMENT AND INITIAL STRESS DISTRIBUTION ON THE MAXILLARY FIRST MOLARS BY THE APPLICATION OF VAR10US ASYMMETRIC HEAD-GEAR (비대칭 헤드기어의 적용시 상악제 1 대구치에 나타나는힘과 변위 및 초기 응력분포에 관한 3차원 유한요소법적 연구)

  • Kim, Jong-Soo;Cha, Dyung-Suk;Ju, Jin-Won;Lee, Jin-Woo
    • The korean journal of orthodontics
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    • v.31 no.1 s.84
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    • pp.25-38
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    • 2001
  • The purpose of this study was to compare the force, the displacement and the stress distribution on the maxillary first molars altered by the application of various asymmetric head-gear. For this study, the finite element models of unilateral Cl II maxillary dental arch was made. Also, the finite element models of asymmetric face-bow was made. Three types of asymmetric face-bow were made : each of the right side 15mm, 25mm and 35mm shorter than the left side. We compared the forces, the displacement and the distribution of stress that were generated by application of various asymmetric head-gear, The results were as follows. 1. The total forces that both maxillary first molars received were similar in all groups. But the forces that mesially positioned tooth received were increased as the length of the outer-bow shortened, and the forces that normally positioned tooth received were decreased as the length of the outer-bow shortened. 2. In lateral force comparison, the buccal forces that normally positioned tooth received were increased as the length of the outer-bow shortened, and the buccal fortes that mesially positioned tooth received were decreased as the length of the outer-bow shortened. Though the net lateral force moved to the buccal side of normally positioned tooth as the length of the outer-bow shortened, both maxillary first molars received the buccal force. That showed 'Avchiai Expansion Effect' 3. The distal forces, the extrusion forces and the magnitudes of the crown distal tipping that mesially positioned tooth received were increased as the length of the outer-bow shortened, and the forces that normally positioned tooth received were decreased as the length of the outer-bow was shortened. 4. The magnitude of the distal-in rotation that normally positioned tooth received were increased as the length of the outer-bow was shortened. But, mesially positioned tooth show two different results. For the outer-bow 15mm shortened, mesially positioned tooth showed the distal-in rotation, hut for the outer-bow 25mm and 35mn shortened, mesially positioned tooth showed the distal-out rotation. Thus, the turning point exists between 15mm and 25mm. 5. This study of the initial stress distribution of the periodontal ligament at slightly inferior of the furcation area revealed that the compressive stress in the distobuccal root of the normally positioned tooth moved from the palatal side to the distal side and the buccal side successively as the length of the outer-bow shortened. 6. This study of the initial stress distribution of the periodontal ligament at slightly inferior of the furcation area revealed that the magnitudes of stress were altered but the total stress distributions were not altered in the mesiobuccal root and the palatal root of normally positioned tooth, and also three roots of mesially positioned tooth as the length of the outer-bow shortened.

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The Effects of Environmental Dynamism on Supply Chain Commitment in the High-tech Industry: The Roles of Flexibility and Dependence (첨단산업의 환경동태성이 공급체인의 결속에 미치는 영향: 유연성과 의존성의 역할)

  • Kim, Sang-Deok;Ji, Seong-Goo
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.31-54
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    • 2007
  • The exchange between buyers and sellers in the industrial market is changing from short-term to long-term relationships. Long-term relationships are governed mainly by formal contracts or informal agreements, but many scholars are now asserting that controlling relationship by using formal contracts under environmental dynamism is inappropriate. In this case, partners will depend on each other's flexibility or interdependence. The former, flexibility, provides a general frame of reference, order, and standards against which to guide and assess appropriate behavior in dynamic and ambiguous situations, thus motivating the value-oriented performance goals shared between partners. It is based on social sacrifices, which can potentially minimize any opportunistic behaviors. The later, interdependence, means that each firm possesses a high level of dependence in an dynamic channel relationship. When interdependence is high in magnitude and symmetric, each firm enjoys a high level of power and the bonds between the firms should be reasonably strong. Strong shared power is likely to promote commitment because of the common interests, attention, and support found in such channel relationships. This study deals with environmental dynamism in high-tech industry. Firms in the high-tech industry regard it as a key success factor to successfully cope with environmental changes. However, due to the lack of studies dealing with environmental dynamism and supply chain commitment in the high-tech industry, it is very difficult to find effective strategies to cope with them. This paper presents the results of an empirical study on the relationship between environmental dynamism and supply chain commitment in the high-tech industry. We examined the effects of consumer, competitor, and technological dynamism on supply chain commitment. Additionally, we examined the moderating effects of flexibility and dependence of supply chains. This study was confined to the type of high-tech industry which has the characteristics of rapid technology change and short product lifecycle. Flexibility among the firms of this industry, having the characteristic of hard and fast growth, is more important here than among any other industry. Thus, a variety of environmental dynamism can affect a supply chain relationship. The industries targeted industries were electronic parts, metal product, computer, electric machine, automobile, and medical precision manufacturing industries. Data was collected as follows. During the survey, the researchers managed to obtain the list of parts suppliers of 2 companies, N and L, with an international competitiveness in the mobile phone manufacturing industry; and of the suppliers in a business relationship with S company, a semiconductor manufacturing company. They were asked to respond to the survey via telephone and e-mail. During the two month period of February-April 2006, we were able to collect data from 44 companies. The respondents were restricted to direct dealing authorities and subcontractor company (the supplier) staff with at least three months of dealing experience with a manufacture (an industrial material buyer). The measurement validation procedures included scale reliability; discriminant and convergent validity were used to validate measures. Also, the reliability measurements traditionally employed, such as the Cronbach's alpha, were used. All the reliabilities were greater than.70. A series of exploratory factor analyses was conducted. We conducted confirmatory factor analyses to assess the validity of our measurements. A series of chi-square difference tests were conducted so that the discriminant validity could be ensured. For each pair, we estimated two models-an unconstrained model and a constrained model-and compared the two model fits. All these tests supported discriminant validity. Also, all items loaded significantly on their respective constructs, providing support for convergent validity. We then examined composite reliability and average variance extracted (AVE). The composite reliability of each construct was greater than.70. The AVE of each construct was greater than.50. According to the multiple regression analysis, customer dynamism had a negative effect and competitor dynamism had a positive effect on a supplier's commitment. In addition, flexibility and dependence had significant moderating effects on customer and competitor dynamism. On the other hand, all hypotheses about technological dynamism had no significant effects on commitment. In other words, technological dynamism had no direct effect on supplier's commitment and was not moderated by the flexibility and dependence of the supply chain. This study makes its contribution in the point of view that this is a rare study on environmental dynamism and supply chain commitment in the field of high-tech industry. Especially, this study verified the effects of three sectors of environmental dynamism on supplier's commitment. Also, it empirically tested how the effects were moderated by flexibility and dependence. The results showed that flexibility and interdependence had a role to strengthen supplier's commitment under environmental dynamism in high-tech industry. Thus relationship managers in high-tech industry should make supply chain relationship flexible and interdependent. The limitations of the study are as follows; First, about the research setting, the study was conducted with high-tech industry, in which the direction of the change in the power balance of supply chain dyads is usually determined by manufacturers. So we have a difficulty with generalization. We need to control the power structure between partners in a future study. Secondly, about flexibility, we treated it throughout the paper as positive, but it can also be negative, i.e. violating an agreement or moving, but in the wrong direction, etc. Therefore we need to investigate the multi-dimensionality of flexibility in future research.

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A Study on Developing a VKOSPI Forecasting Model via GARCH Class Models for Intelligent Volatility Trading Systems (지능형 변동성트레이딩시스템개발을 위한 GARCH 모형을 통한 VKOSPI 예측모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sun-Woong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.19-32
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    • 2010
  • Volatility plays a central role in both academic and practical applications, especially in pricing financial derivative products and trading volatility strategies. This study presents a novel mechanism based on generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models that is able to enhance the performance of intelligent volatility trading systems by predicting Korean stock market volatility more accurately. In particular, we embedded the concept of the volatility asymmetry documented widely in the literature into our model. The newly developed Korean stock market volatility index of KOSPI 200, VKOSPI, is used as a volatility proxy. It is the price of a linear portfolio of the KOSPI 200 index options and measures the effect of the expectations of dealers and option traders on stock market volatility for 30 calendar days. The KOSPI 200 index options market started in 1997 and has become the most actively traded market in the world. Its trading volume is more than 10 million contracts a day and records the highest of all the stock index option markets. Therefore, analyzing the VKOSPI has great importance in understanding volatility inherent in option prices and can afford some trading ideas for futures and option dealers. Use of the VKOSPI as volatility proxy avoids statistical estimation problems associated with other measures of volatility since the VKOSPI is model-free expected volatility of market participants calculated directly from the transacted option prices. This study estimates the symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models for the KOSPI 200 index from January 2003 to December 2006 by the maximum likelihood procedure. Asymmetric GARCH models include GJR-GARCH model of Glosten, Jagannathan and Runke, exponential GARCH model of Nelson and power autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) of Ding, Granger and Engle. Symmetric GARCH model indicates basic GARCH (1, 1). Tomorrow's forecasted value and change direction of stock market volatility are obtained by recursive GARCH specifications from January 2007 to December 2009 and are compared with the VKOSPI. Empirical results indicate that negative unanticipated returns increase volatility more than positive return shocks of equal magnitude decrease volatility, indicating the existence of volatility asymmetry in the Korean stock market. The point value and change direction of tomorrow VKOSPI are estimated and forecasted by GARCH models. Volatility trading system is developed using the forecasted change direction of the VKOSPI, that is, if tomorrow VKOSPI is expected to rise, a long straddle or strangle position is established. A short straddle or strangle position is taken if VKOSPI is expected to fall tomorrow. Total profit is calculated as the cumulative sum of the VKOSPI percentage change. If forecasted direction is correct, the absolute value of the VKOSPI percentage changes is added to trading profit. It is subtracted from the trading profit if forecasted direction is not correct. For the in-sample period, the power ARCH model best fits in a statistical metric, Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE), and the exponential GARCH model shows the highest Mean Correct Prediction (MCP). The power ARCH model best fits also for the out-of-sample period and provides the highest probability for the VKOSPI change direction tomorrow. Generally, the power ARCH model shows the best fit for the VKOSPI. All the GARCH models provide trading profits for volatility trading system and the exponential GARCH model shows the best performance, annual profit of 197.56%, during the in-sample period. The GARCH models present trading profits during the out-of-sample period except for the exponential GARCH model. During the out-of-sample period, the power ARCH model shows the largest annual trading profit of 38%. The volatility clustering and asymmetry found in this research are the reflection of volatility non-linearity. This further suggests that combining the asymmetric GARCH models and artificial neural networks can significantly enhance the performance of the suggested volatility trading system, since artificial neural networks have been shown to effectively model nonlinear relationships.

Information types and characteristics within the Wireless Emergency Alert in COVID-19: Focusing on Wireless Emergency Alerts in Seoul (코로나 19 하에서 재난문자 내의 정보유형 및 특성: 서울특별시 재난문자를 중심으로)

  • Yoon, Sungwook;Nam, Kihwan
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.45-68
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    • 2022
  • The central and local governments of the Republic of Korea provided information necessary for disaster response through wireless emergency alerts (WEAs) in order to overcome the pandemic situation in which COVID-19 rapidly spreads. Among all channels for delivering disaster information, wireless emergency alert is the most efficient, and since it adopts the CBS(Cell Broadcast Service) method that broadcasts directly to the mobile phone, it has the advantage of being able to easily access disaster information through the mobile phone without the effort of searching. In this study, the characteristics of wireless emergency alerts sent to Seoul during the past year and one month (January 2020 to January 2021) were derived through various text mining methodologies, and various types of information contained in wireless emergency alerts were analyzed. In addition, it was confirmed through the population mobility by age in the districts of Seoul that what kind of influence it had on the movement behavior of people. After going through the process of classifying key words and information included in each character, text analysis was performed so that individual sent characters can be used as an analysis unit by applying a document cluster analysis technique based on the included words. The number of WEAs sent to the Seoul has grown dramatically since the spread of Covid-19. In January 2020, only 10 WEAs were sent to the Seoul, but the number of the WEAs increased 5 times in March, and 7.7 times over the previous months. Since the basic, regional local government were authorized to send wireless emergency alerts independently, the sending behavior of related to wireless emergency alerts are different for each local government. Although most of the basic local governments increased the transmission of WEAs as the number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 increases, the trend of the increase in WEAs according to the increase in the number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 was different by region. By using structured econometric model, the effect of disaster information included in wireless emergency alerts on population mobility was measured by dividing it into baseline effect and accumulating effect. Six types of disaster information, including date, order, online URL, symptom, location, normative guidance, were identified in WEAs and analyzed through econometric modelling. It was confirmed that the types of information that significantly change population mobility by age are different. Population mobility of people in their 60s and 70s decreased when wireless emergency alerts included information related to date and order. As date and order information is appeared in WEAs when they intend to give information about Covid-19 confirmed cases, these results show that the population mobility of higher ages decreased as they reacted to the messages reporting of confirmed cases of Covid-19. Online information (URL) decreased the population mobility of in their 20s, and information related to symptoms reduced the population mobility of people in their 30s. On the other hand, it was confirmed that normative words that including the meaning of encouraging compliance with quarantine policies did not cause significant changes in the population mobility of all ages. This means that only meaningful information which is useful for disaster response should be included in the wireless emergency alerts. Repeated sending of wireless emergency alerts reduces the magnitude of the impact of disaster information on population mobility. It proves indirectly that under the prolonged pandemic, people started to feel tired of getting repetitive WEAs with similar content and started to react less. In order to effectively use WEAs for quarantine and overcoming disaster situations, it is necessary to reduce the fatigue of the people who receive WEA by sending them only in necessary situations, and to raise awareness of WEAs.

An accuracy analysis of Cyberknife tumor tracking radiotherapy according to unpredictable change of respiration (예측 불가능한 호흡 변화에 따른 사이버나이프 종양 추적 방사선 치료의 정확도 분석)

  • Seo, jung min;Lee, chang yeol;Huh, hyun do;Kim, wan sun
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.157-166
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    • 2015
  • Purpose : Cyber-Knife tumor tracking system, based on the correlation relationship between the position of a tumor which moves in response to the real time respiratory cycle signal and respiration was obtained by the LED marker attached to the outside of the patient, the location of the tumor to predict in advance, the movement of the tumor in synchronization with the therapeutic device to track real-time tumor, is a system for treating. The purpose of this study, in the cyber knife tumor tracking radiation therapy, trying to evaluate the accuracy of tumor tracking radiation therapy system due to the change in the form of unpredictable sudden breathing due to cough and sleep. Materials and Methods : Breathing Log files that were used in the study, based on the Respiratory gating radiotherapy and Cyber-knife tracking radiosurgery breathing Log files of patients who received herein, measured using the Log files in the form of a Sinusoidal pattern and Sudden change pattern. it has been reconstituted as possible. Enter the reconstructed respiratory Log file cyber knife dynamic chest Phantom, so that it is possible to implement a motion due to respiration, add manufacturing the driving apparatus of the existing dynamic chest Phantom, Phantom the form of respiration we have developed a program that can be applied to. Movement of the phantom inside the target (Ball cube target) was driven by the displacement of three sizes of according to the size of the respiratory vertical (Superior-Inferior) direction to the 5 mm, 10 mm, 20 mm. Insert crosses two EBT3 films in phantom inside the target in response to changes in the target movement, the End-to-End (E2E) test provided in Cyber-Knife manufacturer depending on the form of the breathing five times each. It was determined by carrying. Accuracy of tumor tracking system is indicated by the target error by analyzing the inserted film, additional E2E test is analyzed by measuring the correlation error while being advanced. Results : If the target error is a sine curve breathing form, the size of the target of the movement is in response to the 5 mm, 10 mm, 20 mm, respectively, of the average $1.14{\pm}0.13mm$, $1.05{\pm}0.20mm$, with $2.37{\pm}0.17mm$, suddenly for it is variations in breathing, respective average $1.87{\pm}0.19mm$, $2.15{\pm}0.21mm$, and analyzed with $2.44{\pm}0.26mm$. If the correlation error can be defined by the length of the displacement vector in the target track is a sinusoidal breathing mode, the size of the target of the movement in response to 5 mm, 10 mm, 20 mm, respective average $0.84{\pm}0.01mm$, $0.70{\pm}0.13mm$, with $1.63{\pm}0.10mm$, if it is a variant of sudden breathing respective average $0.97{\pm}0.06mm$, $1.44{\pm}0.11mm$, and analyzed with $1.98{\pm}0.10mm$. The larger the correlation error values in both the both the respiratory form, the target error value is large. If the motion size of the target of the sine curve breathing form is greater than or equal to 20 mm, was measured at 1.5 mm or more is a recommendation value of both cyber knife manufacturer of both error value. Conclusion : There is a tendency that the correlation error value between about target error value magnitude of the target motion is large is increased, the error value becomes large in variation of rapid respiration than breathing the form of a sine curve. The more the shape of the breathing large movements regular shape of sine curves target accuracy of the tumor tracking system can be judged to be reduced. Using the algorithm of Cyber-Knife tumor tracking system, when there is a change in the sudden unpredictable respiratory due patient coughing during treatment enforcement is to stop the treatment, it is assumed to carry out the internal target validation process again, it is necessary to readjust the form of respiration. Patients under treatment is determined to be able to improve the treatment of accuracy to induce the observed form of regular breathing and put like to see the goggles monitor capable of the respiratory form of the person.

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