• 제목/요약/키워드: macro economic methodology

검색결과 34건 처리시간 0.03초

자연자원 보전지역의 평가모형 - 내셔널 트러스트 후보지 선정을 중심으로 - (The Evaluation Model for Natural Resource Conservation Areas - Focused on Site Selection for the National Trust -)

  • 유주한;정성관
    • 한국조경학회지
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    • 제30권2호
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    • pp.39-49
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    • 2002
  • The purpose of this study is to propose an objective and rational methodology for the selection of proposed sites far the National Trust(NT), which is the new alterative proposal far the conservation of natural environments destroyed by injudicious land development and economic growth. That is to enforce many analysis for the effective estimation of rare ecological and landscape resources and to propose a model based on estimation and united indicators. Using the estimative model, we apply it to the selection of the proposed site in micro scale and simultaneously offer the basic methodology of effective and systematic land conservation in macro scale. The results of this study are as follows: 1) The results of analysis for the reliability of estimative items and indicators, presented no problem in that the coefficient of reliability was over 0.7. 2) The correlation measure of the estimative indicator indicated that 'succession'and 'regenerating restorability' were highly correlative in the item of plants. Another three items showed a tendency to be alike. 3) The results of factor analysis on the characteristics of indicators, classified plants into four categories including a stable factor. The item of animals was classified as a stable and rare factor. The item of landscape was classified as a physical and mental factor and the environment as a pollutional and conditional factor. 4) The model of estimation created through factor analysis was valid for the approval of the regression model because significant probability was 0.00. When we consider the NT proposed site as a complex body that is composed of diverse natural and manmade resources, certainly the synthetic methodology of estimation is needed. If these studies are carried out, NT sites will be selected more rationally and effectively than at present. Consequently, they have the potential to play a core role of natural ecosystem conservation in Korea.

An Analysis of Macro Aspects Caused by Protectionism in Korea

  • Kim, Yuri;Kim, Kyunghun
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • 제25권1호
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2021
  • Purpose - The global trend of protectionism has expanded since the onset of US President Donald Trump's administration in 2017. This global phenomenon has led to a significant reduction in world trade volume and a negative impact on economic development in some countries where the external sector accounts for a large proportion of GDP. Although Korea is a country vulnerable to this deteriorating trade environment, few studies have examined the relationship between protectionism and its business cycles based on Korean data. Thus, this paper investigates the impact of protectionism on Korea's business cycle. Design/methodology - To identify future implications, we conduct a structural vector autoregression (VAR) analysis using monthly Korean data from 1994 to 2015. Macroeconomic variables in the model include the industrial production index, inflation rates, exports (or net exports), interest rates, and exchange rates. For the identification of the shock reflecting the expansion of protectionism, we use an antidumping investigation (ADI) data. Since ADIs are followed generally by the imposition of antidumping tariffs, they have no contemporaneous impact on tariffs and are also contemporaneously exogenous to other endogenous variables in the VAR model. We examine two kinds of ADI shocks i) shocks on Korean exports imposed by Korea's trading partners (ADI-imposed shocks) and ii) shocks on imports imposed by the Korean government (ADI-imposing shocks). Findings - We find that Korea's exports decline sharply due to ADI-imposed shocks; the lowest point at the third month after the initial shock; and do not recover until 24 months later. Simultaneously, the inflation rate decreases. Therefore, the ADI-imposed shock can be regarded as a negative shock on the demand curve where both production and price decrease. In contrast, the ADI-imposing shock generates a different response. The net exports decline, but the inflation rate increases. These can be seen as standard responses with respect to the negative shock on the supply curve. Originality/value - We shed light on the relationship between protectionism and Korea's economic fluctuations, which is rarely addressed in previous studies. We also consider the effects of both protective policy measures on imports to Korea imposed by the Korean government and on policy measures imposed by Korea's trading partner countries on its exports.

문화상품 경쟁력 강화를 위한 필요 요인에 관한 발전방안 연구;캐릭터산업을 중심으로 (A Study on Ways to Develop the factors which are necessary to Strengthen the Competitiveness of Cultural Goods;a case study of Character Industry)

  • 서명애;이상복
    • 한국품질경영학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국품질경영학회 2007년도 춘계학술대회
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    • pp.391-399
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    • 2007
  • There has been an increasing preference for product with cultural value as people have a growing cultural sensitivity and greater demand for cultural value in current global market. In response to that, countries need to develop cultural products which represent their distinctive cultures and traditions, and such efforts may aim to promote the creation of economically high value-added and enhance the cultural image. In this paper, first, we analyze the correlation between Culture, cultural industry and Cultural goods. In this context, my efforts centered initially on a thorough analysis on the current situation and environmental problems that Korean culture faces presently, and then, processed and organized them into major industry categories of character industry, through a statistical methodology, to estimate its market volume by industry and to analyze the inter-relationship and macro-economic pervasive effects among related industries as well as cultural window effects. This paper could lead to final practical solution and suggestions for optimum policy measures to be taken for a supreme cultural industry for Korea.

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A Study on the Distribution of Information and High Technology Clusters : Kazakhstan's Experience

  • Kireyeva, Anel A.;Abilkayir, Nazerke A.;Tsoy, Alexandr A.
    • 유통과학연구
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    • 제16권4호
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    • pp.5-15
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    • 2018
  • Purpose - This study aims to identify of prospective areas for the formation of information and high technology clusters, and propose the new distribution of Kazakhstan's regions according to the innovative development and the ability to perceive IT products. Research design, data, and methodology - The application of scientific methods in this research will allow to systematize the available data, from both a theoretical and empirical perspective. In addition, the authors proposed methodological approaches, which have a three-tiered gradation: macro-level, meso-level and micro-level. Results - This study confirms the importance of using of proposed methods and its application for real data in order to the formation of IT and high technology clusters. Further, the obtained results allowed identifying of the distribution of Kazakhstan's regions by innovative development and specialization with using of HHI indexes. Conclusions - According to the results of this theoretical and empirical study proved that distribution of the regions of Kazakhstan and results of HHI indexes shows the power of the agglomeration effect. In addition, according to the conducted survey, we conclude that in Kazakhstan there are sufficient organizational and economic opportunities, trends and conditions for the formation of IT and high technology clusters.

Factors Determine Exchange Rate Volatility of Somalia

  • Mohamud, Isse Abdikadir
    • 동아시아경상학회지
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    • 제3권4호
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    • pp.9-15
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    • 2015
  • The exchange rate is a very important macro variable that has influence on the whole economy and has, therefore, been the topic of many discussions amongst policymakers, academics and other economic agents. The issue of whether to have a fixed, pegged or floating exchange rate regime was highly debated during the 1970s. The purpose of this paper is to investigate what factors determine the exchange rate in Somalia. Quantitative research methodology has been employed to develop regression model using time series data for the period of 12 years. The regression model has been developed based on Quantity theory of money, purchasing power parity and uncovered interest rate parity theory. Somalia is on the countries where the highest exchange rate volatility exists; for example in 2012, the rate jumped 29% percent and two weak later dropped 21%, when Turkish humanitarian aid agencies injected the market a lot of U.S dollar. Based on my study using regression model for time series data of 12 years, the four factors are mainly attributable for the exchange rate volatility of Somalia; these factors include the balance of payment, inflation rate, money supply (mostly come from remittance and NGOs) and Bank profits.

소프트웨어 불법복제에 영향을 미치는 환경 요인에 기반한 국가 분류 (Country Clustering Based on Environmental Factors Influencing on Software Piracy)

  • 서보밀;심준호
    • 한국정보시스템학회지:정보시스템연구
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    • 제26권4호
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    • pp.227-246
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    • 2017
  • Purpose: As the importance of software has been emphasized recently, the size of the software market is continuously expanding. The development of the software market is being adversely affected by software piracy. In this study, we try to classify countries around the world based on the macro environmental factors, which influence software piracy. We also try to identify the differences in software piracy for each classified type. Design/methodology/approach: The data-driven approach is used in this study. From the BSA, the World Bank, and the OECD, we collect data from 1990 to 2015 for 127 environmental variables of 225 countries. Cronbach's ${\alpha}$ analysis, item-to-total correlation analysis, and exploratory factor analysis derive 15 constructs from the data. We apply two-step approach to cluster analysis. The number of clusters is determined to be 5 by hierarchical cluster analysis at the first step, and the countries are classified by the K-means clustering at the second step. We conduct ANOVA and MANOVA in order to verify the differences of the environmental factors and software piracy among derived clusters. Findings: The five clusters are identified as underdeveloped countries, developing countries, developed countries, world powers, and developing country with large market. There are statistically significant differences in the environmental factors among the clusters. In addition, there are statistically significant differences in software piracy rate, pirated value, and legal software sales among the clusters.

뉴스 내용분석과 하이프 사이클을 활용한 기술기획의 탐색적 연구: 클라우드 컴퓨팅 기술을 중심으로 (An Exploratory Study of Technology Planning Using Content Analysis & Hype Cycle)

  • 서윤교;김시정
    • 기술혁신학회지
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    • 제19권1호
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    • pp.80-104
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    • 2016
  • 기존 유망 신기술에 대한 기술기획의 방법론들은 대상 기술 자체에 초점을 두어 해당 기술이 영향을 미치는 사회 환경적 맥락 이해가 부족한 현실이다. 이에 본 연구는 과학 커뮤니케이션 분야에서 널리 쓰이고 있는 뉴스 내용분석 방법론이 유망 신기술 대한 기술기획에서 사회적 환경의 맥락적 이해를 위한 보완적 방법론으로 활용될 수 있음을 살펴보고자 한다. 기술-사회 공진화 환경에서 유망 신기술은 사회와의 관계에서 하이프(hype) 현상을 나타낸다. 이에 착안하여 뉴스 내용분석을 수행하여 해당 분석 결과가 하이프 사이클 궤적과 부합하는 지를 탐색적으로 살피고, 뉴스 프레임 분석을 통해서는 유망 신기술에 따른 사회적 가시성의 실체적 내용을 이해하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 대표적인 유망 신기술로 클라우드 컴퓨팅을 대상으로 뉴스 내용분석을 수행하였다. 종합지, 경제지 및 IT전문지를 대상으로 한 뉴스 내용분석 결과는 뉴스 보도빈도가 가트너가 제시한 하이프 사이클 궤적과 부합하였으며, 특히 보도 태도 및 뉴스 프레임 분석은 유망 신기술에 대한 거시 환경요인별 맥락적 내용을 이해할 수 있는 유용한 정보를 제공함을 확인하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 뉴스 내용분석이 기술기획에서 주로 활용되는 논문 특허를 중심으로 한 기술정보 분석의 한계점을 극복하고 거시환경 요인별 맥락 이해를 위한 보완적 방법론으로 활용될 수 있음을 시사한다. 결론적으로 기술기획의 거시환경 분석 단계에서 뉴스 내용분석 방법론의 활용은 기술-사회 공진화 관점의 상호 균형된 시각을 확보함에 기여할 수 있을 것이다.

시계열 자료의 관찰빈도 및 기간이 VAR 분석결과에 미치는 영향 차이 검증 - 한국 환율과 주가를 중심으로 - (Evidence of Difference on the Results of VAR Analysis Impacted the Time Frequency and Time Span of Time Series Data)

  • 황윤섭;유승직;김수은
    • 국제지역연구
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    • 제13권1호
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    • pp.81-102
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    • 2009
  • 거시경제변수들 간의 영향관계에 대한 논의는 매우 중요한 연구주제로 자리잡고 있다. 자본자유화와 관련하여 가장 많이 논의되는 경제변수들은 환율과 주가이며, 이 두 변수들은 상호영향관계를 가지는 것으로 파악되고 있다. 그러나 변수의 관찰빈도와 관찰기간에 따라 그 결과는 다르게 나타나고 있다. 본 연구의 목적은 관찰빈도와 관찰기간에 따라 변수의 영향관계가 달라지는 것으로 나타날 경우 기존 연구들이 제시하고 있는 분석 결과의 불일치에 대한 원인을 설명함과 동시에 신뢰성 있는 연구결과의 제시 방법을 논의하는 것이다. 본 연구에서도 관찰빈도와 관찰기간을 달리했을 때, 환율과 주가에 대한 VAR 분석 결과가 다르게 나타남을 볼 수 있었다. 따라서 환율과 주가에 관한 연구를 수행함에 있어서 보다 신뢰성있는 연구결과를 도출하기 위한 적절한 관찰빈도와 관찰기간의 적정수준을 제시하기 위하여 몬테칼로 시뮬레이션을 이용하였다. 몬테칼로 시뮬레이션 결과 추정된 각 계수값의 95% 신뢰구간에 실제 VAR모형 분석과정에서 도출된 계수값이 포함될 비율은 관찰 빈도가 높을수록(예를 들어 일별 혹은 주별), 관찰 기간에 있어서 짧은 기간보다 보다 더 긴 기간을 적용할 때 더 설명력이 높다는 기존의 연구결과를 지지하는 것으로 나타났다.

국제유가의 변동성이 한국 거시경제에 미치는 영향 분석 : EGARCH 및 VECM 모형의 응용 (A Study on the Impact of Oil Price Volatility on Korean Macro Economic Activities : An EGARCH and VECM Approach)

  • 김상수
    • 유통과학연구
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    • 제11권10호
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    • pp.73-79
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    • 2013
  • Purpose - This study examines the impact of oil price volatility on economic activities in Korea. The new millennium has seen a deregulation in the crude oil market, which invited immense capital inflow into Korea. It has also raised oil price levels and volatility. Drawing on the recent theoretical literature that emphasizes the role of volatility, this paper attends to the asymmetric changes in economic growth in response to the oil price movement. This study further examines several key macroeconomic variables, such as interest rate, production, and inflation. We come to the conclusion that oil price volatility can, in some part, explain the structural changes. Research design, data, and methodology - We use two methodological frameworks in this study. First, in regards to the oil price uncertainty, we use an Exponential-GARCH (Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity: EGARCH) model estimate to elucidate the asymmetric effect of oil price shock on the conditional oil price volatility. Second, along with the estimation of the conditional volatility by the EGARCH model, we use the estimates in a VECM (Vector Error Correction Model). The study thus examines the dynamic impacts of oil price volatility on industrial production, price levels, and monetary policy responses. We also approximate the monetary policy function by the yield of monetary stabilization bond. The data collected for the study ranges from 1990: M1 to 2013: M7. In the VECM analysis section, the time span is split into two sub-periods; one from 1990 to 1999, and another from 2000 to 2013, due to the U.S. CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) deregulation on the crude oil futures that became effective in 2000. This paper intends to probe the relationship between oil price uncertainty and macroeconomic variables since the structural change in the oil market became effective. Results and Conclusions - The dynamic impulse response functions obtained from the VECM show a prolonged dampening effect of oil price volatility shock on the industrial production across all sub-periods. We also find that inflation measured by CPI rises by one standard deviation shock in response to oil price uncertainty, and lasts for the ensuing period. In addition, the impulse response functions allude that South Korea practices an expansionary monetary policy in response to oil price shocks, which stems from oil price uncertainty. Moreover, a comparison of the results of the dynamic impulse response functions from the two sub-periods suggests that the dynamic relationships have strengthened since 2000. Specifically, the results are most drastic in terms of industrial production; the impact of oil price volatility shocks has more than doubled from the year 2000 onwards. These results again indicate that the relationships between crude oil price uncertainty and Korean macroeconomic activities have been strengthened since the year2000, which resulted in a structural change in the crude oil market due to the deregulation of the crude oil futures.

환경친화적 유통공간의 소비효용이 재방문의도에 미치는 영향 (The Impact of Consumption Utility from Green Retail Environment on Revisit Intention)

  • 백인열;강우성
    • 유통과학연구
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    • 제16권2호
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    • pp.67-81
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    • 2018
  • Purpose - Recently the importance of green consumption and corporate social responsibility has been increasing, thereby enhancing the importance of green consumption space as well. The retail space, as a representative consumption space, is now consuming more energy by introducing bigger retail space, 24-hour operation, cutting-edge equipment, and manless checkout system. Especially for retailers, who are constantly interacting with consumers, not only the economic consideration but also the consumer experience via retail service and physical retail space is crucial for their success. Therefore, this study intends to understand the main factors of motivating consumer perception about green retail space. In addition, we further investigate the mediating and moderating variables to encourage revisit intention and green retail space image. Research design, data, and methodology - In order to test our hypotheses with two models, we conducted a survey using questionnaires. In model 1, 356 respondents were surveyed to determine whether consumers' green attitudes and behaviors enhance environmentally friendly perception on retail space properties. In model 2, a questionnaire survey was conducted on 69 consumers who have experience in green retail space. Questionnaire surveys were conducted with on-line panels in Korea and analyzed using regression model and Hayes' PROCESS macro. Results - We found that consumers with green attitude put more importance on the attributes of green retail space. Also, the utility of the green retail space was found to be significant in emotional and social benefits. And, the consumers, who perceived the importance of green retail space, show higher revisit intentions. The emotional and social utilities have significant positive effects on revisit intention through green retail space image. Conclusions - This study demonstrates that a green retail space can induce positive consumer utility, thereby increasing green retail space image and revisit intention. Thus, in order to increase the image and revisit, retailers should communicate green messages with consumers, enhance green attributes of retail space, and target green consumers. To do so, we suggest that various marketing efforts such as publicity and education are needed to appeal experiential green products and retail space to consumers.