• Title/Summary/Keyword: loss probabilities

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A double-labeling marker-based method for estimating inbreeding and parental genomic components in a population under conservation

  • Li, Wenting;Zhang, Mengmeng;Wang, Kejun;Lu, Yunfeng;Tang, Hui;Wu, Keliang
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.12-23
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    • 2020
  • Objective: The objective of a conservation program is to maintain maximum genetic diversity and preserve the viability of a breed. However, the efficiency of a program is influenced by the ability to accurately measure and predict genetic diversity. Methods: To examine this question, we conducted a simulation in which common measures (i.e. heterozygosity) and novel measures (identity-by-descent probabilities and parental genomic components) were used to estimate genetic diversity within a conserved population using double-labeled single nucleotide polymorphism markers. Results: The results showed that the accuracy and sensitivity of identity-by-state probabilities and heterozygosity were close to identity by descent (IBD) probabilities, which reflect the true genetic diversity. Expected heterozygosity most closely aligned with IBD. All common measures suggested that practices used in the current Chinese pig conservation program result in a ~5% loss in genetic diversity every 10 generations. Parental genomic components were also analyzed to monitor real-time changes in genomic components for each male and female ancestor. The analysis showed that ~7.5% of male families and ~30% of female families were lost every 5 generations. After 50 generations of simulated conservation, 4 male families lost ~50% of their initial genomic components, and the genomic components for 24.8% of the female families were lost entirely. Conclusion: In summary, compared with the true genetic diversity value obtained using double-labeled markers, expected heterozygosity appears to be the optimal indicator. Parental genomic components analysis provides a more detailed picture of genetic diversity and can be used to guide conservation management practices.

A New Approach to Performance Evaluation of Cellular Systems Considering Mixed Platforms Environment (이질적인 이동성 모델링을 통한 셀룰러 이동통신 시스템의 새로운 성능평가)

  • Yeo, Kun-Min;Ryu, Ji-Hyun;Jun, Chi-Hyuck
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.351-359
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    • 1999
  • We present a new approach to the analysis of mobile cellular communication systems under the environment of mixed platforms adopting a guard channel scheme. We assume general cell residence time distributions according to platform-types. Our system model is based on a heterogeneous M/G/c loss system with customer-dependent guard channels, where heterogeneous customers with different service time distributions have different numbers of their own guard channels. We develop the general formula of steady state probabilities for the heterogeneous M/G/c loss system with customer-dependent guard channels. The mean channel occupancy times of new and handoff calls are rigorously derived under a general setting. Finally, our numerical results show that the blocking probability and the forced termination probability are sensitive to the cell residence time distributions.

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A Queueing Model with Loss and Time Priority for Optimal Buffer Control in ATM (손실 우선과 시간 우선이 공존하는 ATM에서의 최적 버퍼 제어를 위한 대기 행렬 모형)

  • Lee, H.W.;Kim, E.Y.
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.130-140
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    • 1999
  • This paper deals with a priority queueing model in an ATM system. Two types of customers are considered. Type-1 customers have push-put priority over type-2 customers. Type-1 customers can enter the service only when the number of type-2 customers is less than a threshold T. We derive the joint probability of the number of customers in the buffer, the mean waiting time, and the loss probabilities of each type. We also propose an optimal control policy that satisfies a given quality of service.

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Stochastic value index for seismic risk management of existing lifelines

  • Koike, Takeshi;Imai, Toshio
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.147-165
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    • 2009
  • This study proposes a certain measure or investment strategy for decision making associated with seismic retrofitting. This strategy reduces the risk of a large-scale malfunction such as water supply loss under seismic risks. The authors developed a stochastic value index that will be used in the overall evaluation of social benefit, income gain, life cycle costs and failure compensation associated with existing lifeline systems damaged by an earthquake during the remaining service period. Optimal seismic disaster prevention investment of deteriorated lifeline systems is discussed. Finally, the present study provides a performance-based design method for seismic retrofitting strategies of existing lifelines which are carried out using the target probabilities of value loss and structural failure.

Performance Analysis of an ATM Multiplexer with Multiple QoS VBR Traffic

  • Kim, Young-Jin;Kim, Jang-Kyung
    • ETRI Journal
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.13-25
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    • 1997
  • In this paper, we propose a new queuing model, MMDP/MMDP/1/K, for an asynchronous transfer mode(ATM) multiplexer with multiple quality of service(QoS) variable bit rate (VBR) traffic in broadband-integrated services digital network (B-ISDN). We use the Markov Modulated Deterministic Process(MMDP) to approximate the actual arrival process and another MMDP for service process Using queuing analysis, we derive a formula for the cell loss probability of the ATM multiplexer in terms of the limiting probabilities of a Markov chain. The cell loss probability can be used for connection admission control in ATM multiplexer and the calculation of equivalent bandwidth for arrival traffic, The major advantages of this approach are simplicity in analysis, accuracy of analysis by comparison of simulation, and numerical stability.

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Evaluation of Piping Failure Probability of Reactor Coolant System in Kori Unit 1 Considering Stress Corrosion Cracking (응력부식균열을 고려한 고리 1호기 원자로냉각재계통의 배관 파손확률 평가)

  • Park, Jeong Soon;Choi, Young Hwan;Park, Jae Hak
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Pressure Vessels and Piping
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.43-49
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    • 2010
  • The piping failure probability of the reactor coolant system in Kori unit 1 was evaluated considering stress corrosion cracking. The P-PIE program (Probabilistic Piping Integrity Evaluation Program) developed in this study was used in the analysis. The effect of some variables such as oxygen concentration during start up and steady state operation, and operating temperature, which are related with stress corrosion cracking, on the piping failure probabilities was investigated. The effects of leak detection capability, the size of big leak, piping loops, and reactor types on the piping failure probability were also investigated. The results show that (1) LOCA (loss of coolant accident) probability of Kori unit 1 is extremely low, (2) leak probability is sensitive to oxygen concentration during steady state operation and operating temperature, while not sensitive to the oxygen concentration during start up, and (3) the piping thickness and operating temperature play important roles in the leak probabilities of the cold leg in 4 reactor types having same inner diameter.

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Current Status of an International Co-Operative Research Program, PARTRIDGE (Probabilistic Analysis as a Regulatory Tool for Risk-Informed Decision GuidancE) (국제공동연구 PARTRIDGE를 통한 확률론적 건전성 평가 기술 개발 현황)

  • Kim, Sun Hye;Park, Jung Soon;Kim, Jin Su;Lee, Jin Ho;Yun, Eun Sub;Yang, Jun Seog;Lee, Jae Gon;Park, Hong Sun;Oh, Young Jin;Kang, Sun Yeh;Yoon, Ki Seok;Park, Jai Hak
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Pressure Vessels and Piping
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.62-69
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    • 2013
  • A probabilistic assessment code, PRO-LOCA ver. 3.7 which was developed in an international co-operative research program, PARTRIDGE was evaluated by conducting sensitivity analysis. The effect of some variables such as simulation methods (adaptive sampling, iteration numbers, weld residual stress model), crack features(Poisson's arrival rate, maximum numbers of cracks, initial flaw size, fabrication flaws), operating and loading conditions(temperature, primary bending stress, earthquake strength and frequency), and inspection model(inspection intervals, detectable leak rate) on the failure probabilities of a surge line nozzle was investigated. The results of sensitivity analysis shows the remaining problems of the PRO-LOCA code such as the instability of adaptive sampling and unexpected trend of failure probabilities at an early stage.

A study on the analysis of the failure probability based on the concept of loss probability (결손확률모델에 의한 파손확률 해석에 관한 연구)

  • 신효철
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.2037-2047
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    • 1991
  • Strength is not simply a single given value but rather is a statistical one with certain distribution functions. This is because it is affected by many unknown factors such as size, shape, stress distribution, and combined stresses. In this study, a model of loss probability is proposed in view of the fact that one of the fundamental configuration of nature is hexagonal, for example, the shapes of lattice unit, grain, and so on. The model sues the concept of loss of certain element in place of Jayatilaka-Trustrum's length and angle of cracks. Using this model, the loss probability due to each loss of certain elements is obtained. Then, the maximum principal stress is calculated by the finite element method at the centroid of the elements under the tensile load for the 4,095 models of analysis. Finally, the failure probability of the brittle materials is obtained by multiplying the loss probability by the ratio of the maximum principal stress to theoretical tensile strength. Comparison of the result of the Jayatilaka-Trustrum's model and the proposed model shows that the failure probabilities by the two methods are in good agreement. Further, it is shown that the parametric relationship of semi-crack lengths for various degrees of birittleness can be determined. Therefore, the analysis of the failure probability suing the proposed model is shown to be promising as a new method for the study of the failure probability of birttle materials.

VIDEO TRAFFIC MODELING BASED ON $GEO^Y/G/{\infty}$ INPUT PROCESSES

  • Kang, Sang-Hyuk;Kim, Ba-Ra
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.171-190
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    • 2008
  • With growing applications of wireless video streaming, an efficient video traffic model featuring modern high-compression techniques is more desirable than ever, because the wireless channel bandwidths are ever limited and time-varying. We propose a modeling and analysis method for video traffic by a class of stochastic processes, which we call '$GEO^Y/G/{\infty}$ input processes'. We model video traffic by $GEO^Y/G/{\infty}$ input process with gamma-distributed batch sizes Y and Weibull-like autocorrelation function. Using four real-encoded, full-length video traces including action movies, a drama, and an animation, we evaluate our modeling performance against existing model, transformed-M/G/${\infty}$ input process, which is one of most recently proposed video modeling methods in the literature. Our proposed $GEO^Y/G/{\infty}$ model is observed to consistently provide conservative performance predictions, in terms of packet loss ratio, within acceptable error at various traffic loads of interest in practical multimedia streaming systems, while the existing transformed-M/G/${\infty}$ fails. For real-time implementation of our model, we analyze G/D/1/K queueing systems with $GEO^Y/G/{\infty}$ input process to upper estimate the packet loss probabilities.

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A priority control algorithm using hop count for streamming mode CLS (스트림 모드 CLS에서 홉 카운터를 이용한 우선 순위 제어 알고리즘)

  • 차현철;강상길;한기준
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.23 no.7
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    • pp.1840-1850
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    • 1998
  • In this paper, we propose a priority control algorithm using hop count, called HC-PC(Priority Control Algorithm using Hop-Count) for steaming mode CLS, in wide area ATM networks. In our HC-PC algorithm, hop count of packet is increased by one as traverse CLS hop and is used as loss priority when a CLS buffer is congested. That guards packets with higher priority form congestion. The average packet loss probabilities are evaluated via mathematical analysis for HC-PC algorithm case and no priority control case. The simulationresults indicate that our algorithm may offer better performance in terms of loss fairness for pathe length and yield high utilization of newtork resource.

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