• Title/Summary/Keyword: long-term change

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Long-term and multidisciplinary research networks on biodiversity and terrestrial ecosystems: findings and insights from Takayama super-site, central Japan

  • Hiroyuki Muraoka;Taku M. Saitoh;Shohei Murayama
    • Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.47 no.4
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    • pp.228-240
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    • 2023
  • Growing complexity in ecosystem structure and functions, under impacts of climate and land-use changes, requires interdisciplinary understandings of processes and the whole-system, and accurate estimates of the changing functions. In the last three decades, observation networks for biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem functions under climate change, have been developed by interested scientists, research institutions and universities. In this paper we will review (1) the development and on-going activities of those observation networks, (2) some outcomes from forest carbon cycle studies at our super-site "Takayama site" in Japan, and (3) a few ideas how we connect in-situ and satellite observations as well as fill observation gaps in the Asia-Oceania region. There have been many intensive research and networking efforts to promote investigations for ecosystem change and functions (e.g., Long-Term Ecological Research Network), measurements of greenhouse gas, heat, and water fluxes (flux network), and biodiversity from genetic to ecosystem level (Biodiversity Observation Network). Combining those in-situ field research data with modeling analysis and satellite remote sensing allows the research communities to up-scale spatially from local to global, and temporally from the past to future. These observation networks oftern use different methodologies and target different scientific disciplines. However growing needs for comprehensive observations to understand the response of biodiversity and ecosystem functions to climate and societal changes at local, national, regional, and global scales are providing opportunities and expectations to network these networks. Among the challenges to produce and share integrated knowledge on climate, ecosystem functions and biodiversity, filling scale-gaps in space and time among the phenomena is crucial. To showcase such efforts, interdisciplinary research at 'Takayama super-site' was reviewed by focusing on studies on forest carbon cycle and phenology. A key approach to respond to multidisciplinary questions is to integrate in-situ field research, ecosystem modeling, and satellite remote sensing by developing cross-scale methodologies at long-term observation field sites called "super-sites". The research approach at 'Takayama site' in Japan showcases this response to the needs of multidisciplinary questions and further development of terrestrial ecosystem research to address environmental change issues from local to national, regional and global scales.

Structural Change and Stability in a Long-Run Parameter (장기모수의 구조변화와 안정성)

  • Kim, Tae-Ho
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.495-505
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    • 2011
  • This study performs statistical tests for stability of a long-run relationship in the telecommunication market system by identifying the time path of a recursively estimated cointegration parameter. A dummy variable is used to recover stability for the period that the hypothesis of stable cointegration is rejected, and then a proper cointegrating relation is derived. A dummy variable appears to reflect the structural change in the cointegrating relation according to the analytical results for the error correction term.

Determination of Unit Hydrograph for the Hydrological Modelling of Long-term Run-off in the Major River Systems in Korea (장기유출의 수문적 모형개발을 위한 주요 수계별 단위도 유도)

  • 엄병현;박근수
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.52-65
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    • 1984
  • In general precise estimation of hourly of daily distribution of the long-term run-off should be very important in a design of source of irrigation. However, there have not been a satisfying method for forecasting of stationar'y long-term run-off in Korea. Solving this problem, this study introduces unit-hydrograph method frequently used in short-term run-off analysis into the long-term run-off analysis, of which model basin was selected to be Sumgin-river catchment area. In the estimation of effective rainfall, conventional method neglects the Soil moisture condition of catchment area, but in this study, the initial discharge (qb) occurred just before rising phase of the hydrograph was selected as the index of a basin soil moisture condition and then introduced as 3rd variable in the analysis of the reationship between cumulative rainfall and cumulative loss of rainfall, which built a new type of separation method of effective rainfall. In next step, in order to normalize significant potential error included in hydrological data, especially in vast catchment area, Snyder's correlation method was applied. A key to solution in this study is multiple correlation method or multiple regressional analysis, which is primarily based on the method of least squres and which is solved by the form of systems of linear equations. And for verification of the change of characteristics of unit hydrograph according to the variation of a various kind of hydrological charateristics (for example, precipitation, tree cover, soil condition, etc),seasonal unit hydrograph models of dry season(autumn, winter), semi-dry season (spring), rainy season (summer) were made respectively. The results obtained in this study were summarized as follows; 1.During the test period of 1966-1971, effective rainfall was estimated for the total 114 run-off hydrograph. From this estimation results, relative error of estimation to the ovservation value was 6%, -which is mush smaller than 12% of the error of conventional method. 2.During the test period, daily distribution of long-term run-off discharge was estimated by the unit hydrograph model. From this estimation results, relative error of estimation by the application of standard unit hydrograph model was 12%. When estimating by each seasonal unit bydrograph model, the relative error was 14% during dry season 10% during semi-dry season and 7% during rainy season, which is much smaller than 37% of conventional method. Summing up the analysis results obtained above, it is convinced that qb-index method of this study for the estimation of effective rainfall be preciser than any other method developed before. Because even recently no method has been developed for the estimation of daily distribution of long-term run-off dicharge, therefore estimation value by unit hydrograph model was only compared with that due to kaziyama method which estimates monthly run-off discharge. However this method due to this study turns out to have high accuracy. If specially mentioned from the results of this study, there is no need to use each seasonal unit hydrograph model separately except the case of semi-dry season. The author hopes to analyze the latter case in future sudies.

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Method of Monitoring Forest Vegetation Change based on Change of MODIS NDVI Time Series Pattern (MODIS NDVI 시계열 패턴 변화를 이용한 산림식생변화 모니터링 방법론)

  • Jung, Myung-Hee;Lee, Sang-Hoon;Chang, Eun-Mi;Hong, Sung-Wook
    • Spatial Information Research
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.47-55
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    • 2012
  • Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) has been used to measure and monitor plant growth, vegetation cover, and biomass from multispectral satellite data. It is also a valuable index in forest applications, providing forest resource information. In this research, an approach for monitoring forest change using MODIS NDVI time series data is explored. NDVI difference-based approaches for a specific point in time have possible accuracy problems and are lacking in monitoring long-term forest cover change. It means that a multi-time NDVI pattern change needs to be considered. In this study, an efficient methodology to consider long-term NDVI pattern is suggested using a harmonic model. The suggested method reconstructs MODIS NDVI time series data through application of the harmonic model, which corrects missing and erroneous data. Then NDVI pattern is analyzed based on estimated values of the harmonic model. The suggested method was applied to 49 NDVI time series data from Aug. 21, 2009 to Sep. 6, 2011 and its usefulness was shown through an experiment.

An Analysis of Long-Term Scenarios for The GHG Emissions Projections Considering Economic Growth and Industrial Structure Change (경제성장과 산업구조 변화에 따른 장기 온실가스 배출량 전망 시나리오 분석)

  • Kwon, Seung Moon;Jeon, Eui Chan
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.257-268
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    • 2016
  • Both economic growth and industrial structure have great influence on energy consumption and GHG emissions. This study analyzed long-term scenarios for GHG emissions projections considering economic growth and industry value added change. In consideration of 3 GDP and 3 industry value added outlook, total 9 scenarios were set; 'Assembly Industry Baseline(AI)', 'Assembly KEIT industry(AK)', 'Assembly Advanced Country industry(AA)', 'KDI Industry Baseline(KI)', 'KDI KEIT industry(KK)', 'KDI Advanced Country industry(KA)', 'OECD Industry Baseline(OI)', 'OECD KEIT industry(OK)', and 'OECD Advanced Country industry(OA)' scenarios. In consideration of the GDP increase rate and industry value added outlook, it is estimated that AI scenario's GHG emissions would be 777 million tons of $CO_2eq$ in 2030. On the other hand, in the case of OA scenario, GHG emissions would be 560.2 million tons of $CO_2eq$ in 2030. Differences between AI scenario's and OA scenario's were 216.8 million tons of $CO_2eq$. It can be identified by that GDP and industry value added change have great influence on GHG emissions. In view of the fact that Korea's amount of GHG emission reduction targets in 2030 were 218.6 million tons of $CO_2eq$ that the result of this research could give us valuable insight.

Change in Available Phosphate by Application of Phosphate Fertilizer in Long-term Fertilization Experiment for Paddy Soil (인산질비료 장기연용 논토양에서 유효인산 변동)

  • Kim, Myung-Sook;Kim, Seok-Cheol;Yun, Sun-Gang;Park, Seong-Jin;Lee, Chang-Hoon
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.141-146
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    • 2017
  • BACKGROUND: Phosphorus(P) is a vital factor for rice but excess input of phosphorus fertilizer can cause environmental risk and waste of fertilizer resources. We studied to assess the change of available phosphate, P balance, critical concentration of available phosphate under a rice single system. METHODS AND RESULTS: The changes of available phosphate of paddy soil were examined from long-term fertilization experiment which was started in 1954 at the National Academy of Agricultural Science. The treatments were no phosphate fertilization(No fert., and N), phosphate fertilization(NPK, NPKC, and NPKCLS). The available phosphorus concentrations in treatments without phosphate fertilizer (No fert. and N) were decreased continuously. But, after 47 years, available phosphate content in phosphate fertilizer treatment (NPK, NPKC, and NPKCLS) reached at the highest ($245{\sim}331mg\;kg^{-1}$), showing a tendency to decrease afterward. The mean annual P field balance in these treatments (NPK, NPKC, and NPKCLS) had positive values that varied from 16.6 to $17.5kg\;ha^{-1}year^{-1}$, and ratio of residual P were increased. These showed that phosphate fertilizer in soil were converted into the form of residual phosphorus which was not easily extracted by available phosphate extractant. Also, It was estimated that the critical value of available phosphate for rice cultivation was $120mg\;kg^{-1}$ using Cate-Nelson equation. CONCLUSION: We concluded that no more phosphate fertilizer should be applied in rice single system if soil available phosphate is higher than the critical P value.

Influence of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation on Korean Precipitation and its Long-Term Changes (여름철 계절안 진동이 한반도 강수에 미치는 영향 및 장기 변화 특성 연구)

  • Lee, June-Yi;Hsu, Pang-Chi;Moon, Suyeon;Ha, Kyung-Ja
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.435-444
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    • 2017
  • By analyzing Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE) from May to September for 1951~2007, this study investigates impacts of two dominant boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) modes on precipitation over Monsoon Asia including Korea and long-term change of 10~20-day and 30~60-day ISO over Korea. It is shown that BSISO strongly modulates rainfall variability over the many part of Monsoon Asia including Korea. Korea tends to have more (less) rainfall during the phases 3~5 (7~8) of BSISO1 representing the canonical northward/northeastward propagating 30~60-day ISO and during the phases 6~8 (3~5) of BSISO2 representing the northward/northwestward propagating 10~20-day ISO. It is found that the 10~20-day ISO variability contributes to summer mean rainfall variability more than 30~60-day ISO over Korea. For the 57 years of 1951~2007, the correlation coefficient between the May to September mean precipitation anomaly and standard deviation of 10~20-day (30~60-day) ISO is 0.71 (0.46). It is further noted that there is a significant increasing trend in the 10~20-day and 30~60-day ISO variability in the rainy season during the period of 1951 to 2007.

Groundwater Level Trend Analysis for Long-term Prediction Basedon Gaussian Process Regression (가우시안 프로세스 회귀분석을 이용한 지하수위 추세분석 및 장기예측 연구)

  • Kim, Hyo Geon;Park, Eungyu;Jeong, Jina;Han, Weon Shik;Kim, Kue-Young
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.30-41
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    • 2016
  • The amount of groundwater related data is drastically increasing domestically from various sources since 2000. To justify the more expansive continuation of the data acquisition and to derive valuable implications from the data, continued employments of sophisticated and state-of-the-arts statistical tools in the analyses and predictions are important issue. In the present study, we employed a well established machine learning technique of Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model in the trend analyses of groundwater level for the long-term change. The major benefit of GPR model is that the model provide not only the future predictions but also the associated uncertainty. In the study, the long-term predictions of groundwater level from the stations of National Groundwater Monitoring Network located within Han River Basin were exemplified as prediction cases based on the GPR model. In addition, a few types of groundwater change patterns were delineated (i.e., increasing, decreasing, and no trend) on the basis of the statistics acquired from GPR analyses. From the study, it was found that the majority of the monitoring stations has decreasing trend while small portion shows increasing or no trend. To further analyze the causes of the trend, the corresponding precipitation data were jointly analyzed by the same method (i.e., GPR). Based on the analyses, the major cause of decreasing trend of groundwater level is attributed to reduction of precipitation rate whereas a few of the stations show weak relationship between the pattern of groundwater level changes and precipitation.

Effects of Long-Term Intake of Korean Medicine on Gynecology Patients' Livers and Kidneys; Panel Study - Focus on Before Intake, After 3, 6 Months - (장기간 한약복용이 부인과 환자의 간 및 신장기능에 미치는 영향: panel연구 - 복용 전과 후 3, 6개월 비교를 중심으로 -)

  • Yang, Junmo;Sung, Dongmin;Kim, Eu Gene;Lee, Sundong
    • The Journal of Korean Medicine
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    • v.41 no.1
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    • pp.84-92
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    • 2020
  • Objectives: To observe the effects on liver and kidney of gynecology patients' during long term Korean Medicine. Methods: This research was conducted as a panel study on 29 female gynecology patients at Korean medicine clinic and compares their conditions before, 3 months after, and 6 months after Intake of Korean medicine. This analysis was conducted to frequency(%), repeated measure ANOVA and significantly statistics was p<0.05, confidence interval. Results: The most common conditions among the subjects were polycystic ovary syndrome, endometriosis, adenomyosis, and uterine myoma. Except in a few instances, liver functions (AST, ALT, γ-GTP) were within the normal range before and after the intake of Korean medicine. Further, while there was a slight change in liver functions when three months and six months after the intake, but there was no statistical significance (p>0.05). As for the kidney functions (BUN, Creatinine, BUN/Creatinine), they were within the normal range before and after the intake of Korean medicine. Further, while there was a slight change in kidney functions three months and six months after the intake, there was no statistical significance(p>0.05) either. Conclusions: Based on these results, it can be concluded that Korean medicine does not have a negative impact on the gynecology patients' liver and kidney.

Long-Term Follow-Up Radiologic and Clinical Evaluation of Cylindrical Cage for Anterior Interbody Fusion in Degenerative Cervical Disc Disease

  • Kim, Su-Hyeong;Chun, Hyoung-Joon;Yi, Hyeon-Joong;Bak, Koang-Hum;Kim, Dong-Won;Lee, Yoon-Kyoung
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • v.52 no.2
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    • pp.107-113
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    • 2012
  • Objective : Various procedures have been introduced for anterior interbody fusion in degenerative cervical disc disease including plate systems with autologous iliac bone, carbon cages, and cylindrical cages. However, except for plate systems, the long-term results of other methods have not been established. In the present study, we evaluated radiologic findings for cylindrical cervical cages over long-term follow up periods. Methods : During 4 year period, radiologic findings of 138 patients who underwent anterior cervical fusion with cylindrical cage were evaluated at 6, 12, 24, and 36 postoperative months using plain radiographs. We investigated subsidence, osteophyte formation (anterior and posterior margin), cage direction change, kyphotic angle, and bone fusion on each radiograph. Results : Among the 138 patients, a minimum of 36 month follow-up was achieved in 99 patients (mean follow-up : 38.61 months) with 115 levels. Mean disc height was 7.32 mm for preoperative evaluations, 9.00 for immediate postoperative evaluations, and 4.87 more than 36 months after surgery. Osteophytes were observed in 107 levels (93%) of the anterior portion and 48 levels (41%) of the posterior margin. The mean kyphotic angle was $9.87^{\circ}$ in 35 levels showing cage directional change. There were several significant findings : 1) related subsidence [T-score (p=0.039) and anterior osteophyte (p=0.009)], 2) accompanying posterior osteophyte and outcome (p=0.05). Conclusion : Cage subsidence and osteophyte formation were radiologically observed in most cases. Low T-scores may have led to subsidence and kyphosis during bone fusion although severe neurologic aggravation was not found, and therefore cylindrical cages should be used in selected cases.