• Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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• v.34 no.6
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• pp.451-456
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• 2018

The use of single component distribution to describe the irregular stand structure of degraded forest often lead to bias. Such biasness can be overcome by the application of finite mixture distribution. Therefore, in this study, finite mixture distribution was used to characterise the irregular stand structure of the Gmelina arborea plantation in Omo forest reserve. Thirty plots, ten each from the three stands established in 1984, 1990 and 2005 were used. The data were pooled per stand and fitted. Four finite mixture distributions including normal mixture, lognormal mixture, gamma mixture and Weibull mixture were considered. The method of maximum likelihood was used to fit the finite mixture distributions to the data. Model assessment was based on negative loglikelihood value ($-{\Lambda}{\Lambda}$), Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and root mean square error (RMSE). The results showed that the mixture distributions provide accurate and precise characterisation of the irregular diameter distribution of the degraded Gmelina arborea stands. The $-{\Lambda}{\Lambda}$, AIC, BIC and RMSE values ranged from -715.233 to -348.375, 703.926 to 1433.588, 718.598 to 1451.334 and 3.003 to 7.492, respectively. Their performances were relatively the same. This approach can be used to describe other irregular forest stand structures, especially the multi-species forest.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.109-122
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• 2018

The composite lognormal-generalized Pareto distribution (LN-GPD) is a mixture of right-truncated lognormal and GPD for a given threshold value. Scollnik (Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2007, 20-33, 2007) shows that the composite LN-GPD is adequate to describe body distribution and heavy-tailedness. This paper considers time-varying modeling of the LN-GPD based on local polynomial maximum likelihood estimation. Time-varying model provides significant detailed information of time dependent data, hence it can be applied to disciplines such as service engineering for staffing and resources management. Our work also extends to Beirlant and Goegebeur (Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 89, 97-118, 2004) in the sense of losing no data by including truncated lognormal distribution. Our proposed method is shown to perform adequately in simulation. Real data application to the service time of the Israel bank call center shows interesting findings on the staffing policy.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.17 no.6
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• pp.1087-1105
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• 2016

Traffic load and volume is one of the most important physical quantities for bridge safety evaluation and maintenance strategies formulation. This paper aims to conduct the statistical analysis of traffic volume information and the multimodal modeling of gross vehicle weight (GVW) based on the monitoring data obtained from the weigh-in-motion (WIM) system instrumented on the arch Jiubao Bridge located in Hangzhou, China. A genetic algorithm (GA)-based mixture parameter estimation approach is developed for derivation of the unknown mixture parameters in mixed distribution models. The statistical analysis of one-year WIM data is firstly performed according to the vehicle type, single axle weight, and GVW. The probability density function (PDF) and cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the GVW data of selected vehicle types are then formulated by use of three kinds of finite mixed distributions (normal, lognormal and Weibull). The mixture parameters are determined by use of the proposed GA-based method. The results indicate that the stochastic properties of the GVW data acquired from the field-instrumented WIM sensors are effectively characterized by the method of finite mixture distributions in conjunction with the proposed GA-based mixture parameter identification algorithm. Moreover, it is revealed that the Weibull mixture distribution is relatively superior in modeling of the WIM data on the basis of the calculated Akaike's information criterion (AIC) values.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.1-12
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• 2008

The Swaption is one of the popular Interest rates derivatives. In spite of such a popularity, the swaption pricing formula is hard to derived within the theoretical consistency. Most of swaption pricing model are heavily depending on the simulation technique. We present a new class of swaption model based on the multi-factor HJM levy-mixture model. A key contribution of this paper is to provide a generalized swaption pricing formula encompassing many market stylize facts. We provide an approximated closed form solution of the swaption price using the Gram-Charlier expansion. Specifically, the solution form is similar to the market models, since our approximation is based on the Lognormal distribution. It can be directly compared with the traditional Black's formula when the size of third and fourth moments are not so large. The proposed extended levy model is also expected to be capable of producing the volatility smiles and skewness.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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• v.19 no.8
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• pp.1493-1502
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• 1994

In this paper we propose a new wideband channel simulation algorithm which exactly simulates the Suzuki fading channel, a mixture of short term and long term fading. Proposed algorithm generates the incoming reflected waves as Suzuki distributed random signals and is possible to arbitrarily adjust the correlations among long term fading components of the incoming waves by using the Gaussian-to-lognormal transformation. Proposed algorithm can be applied to the simulation of the system performance.

• Journal of Communications and Networks
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.182-189
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• 2016

The focus in this paper is on obtaining tight, simple algebraic-form bounds and invertible expressions for the average symbol error probability (ASEP) of M-ary phase shift keying (MPSK) in a class of composite fading channels. We employ the mixture gamma (MG) distribution to approximate the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) distributions of fading models, which include Nakagami-m, Generalized-K ($K_G$), and Nakagami-lognormal fading as specific examples. Our approach involves using the tight upper and lower bounds that we recently derived on the Gaussian Q-function, which can easily be averaged over the general MG distribution. First, algebraic-form upper bounds are derived on the ASEP of MPSK for M > 2, based on the union upper bound on the symbol error probability (SEP) of MPSK in additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) given by a single Gaussian Q-function. By comparison with the exact ASEP results obtained by numerical integration, we show that these upper bounds are extremely tight for all SNR values of practical interest. These bounds can be employed as accurate approximations that are invertible for high SNR. For the special case of binary phase shift keying (BPSK) (M = 2), where the exact SEP in the AWGN channel is given as one Gaussian Q-function, upper and lower bounds on the exact ASEP are obtained. The bounds can be made arbitrarily tight by adjusting the parameters in our Gaussian bounds. The average of the upper and lower bounds gives a very accurate approximation of the exact ASEP. Moreover, the arbitrarily accurate approximations for all three of the fading models we consider become invertible for reasonably high SNR.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.25 no.5
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• pp.757-773
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• 2012

Traditional value at risk(S-VaR) has a difficulity in predicting the future risk of financial asset prices since S-VaR is a backward looking measure based on the historical data of the underlying asset prices. In order to resolve the deficiency of S-VaR, an economic value at risk(E-VaR) using the risk neutral probability distributions is suggested since E-VaR is a forward looking measure based on the option price data. In this study E-VaR is estimated by assuming the generalized gamma distribution(GGD) as risk neutral density function which is implied in the option. The estimated E-VaR with GGD was compared with E-VaR estimates under the Black-Scholes model, two-lognormal mixture distribution, generalized extreme value distribution and S-VaR estimates under the normal distribution and GARCH(1, 1) model, respectively. The option market data of the KOSPI 200 index are used in order to compare the performances of the above VaR estimates. The results of the empirical analysis show that GGD seems to have a tendency to estimate VaR conservatively; however, GGD is superior to other models in the overall sense.