• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.3-25
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• 2013

This paper evaluates whether the proposed FTAAP is a desirable policy option for APEC member economies and the world economy. More specifically, this paper qualitatively investigates whether the FTAAP satisfies conditions for a trade bloc to generate positive and sufficient net trade creation effect. In addition, this paper estimates the likely impact of the FTAAP by using a CGE model analysis. From the qualitative analysis based on statistical data, this paper strongly argues that the FTAAP can be a desirable regional trade bloc able to generate positive gains from freer trade. From the ex-ante scenario analysis using both static and capital accumulation CGE Models, this paper concludes that the FTAAP has great potential for improving welfare of participating APEC economies and will boost economic growth in the region. In particular, the FTAAP would be even better if it can be linked with liberalization of trade in services and enhanced trade facilitation.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.36 no.5
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• pp.427-436
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• 2015

We classified Abell clusters using the magnitude differences between two or three bright member galaxies and investigated how such classification was correlated with the properties of brightest cluster galaxies (BCGs). S-type BCGs being clearly brighter than the rest of the member galaxies were likely to be red, luminous, and evolved as early type galaxies. On the other hand, T-type BCGs being not dominant at all were less luminous than early type galaxies. A small fraction of BCGs was currently forming stars, and all of the star-forming BCGs were T-type BCGs. Active galactic nuclei were most frequent for S-type BCGs. Through these quantitative analyses of the BCG properties, we discussed the possible scenario of BCG formation and the differences between S-type and T-type of BCGs.

• Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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• v.21 no.5
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• pp.773-794
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• 2001

Many studies on the professional development of science teachers demonstrated that induction teachers' conceptions of teaching science are important factors in developing their professionalism. The present study was conducted to describe in detail the progress of two science induction teachers, June and Mike, towards conceptual change teaching, and to investigate secondary induction science teachers' conceptions of teaching science by analysing their conceptual ecologies. The study was interpretive, using multiple data sources to achieve a triangulation of data. Both June and Mike held strongly positive learning in their views of knowledge and science. Holding positivist views of knowledge and of science is likely to be a major obstacle for anyone coming to understand constructivism and its implications in teaching for conceptual change. This argument resonates in several key ways with the teachers' cases, even though I recognize differences between scenario and teachers, and between teachers themselves.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.61-86
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• 2010

This research analyzed on the future energy society of Korea in 2030 using system thinking approach. Key uncertainty factors determining the future energy society were analyzed in a multi disciplinary view point such as politics, economy, society, ecology and technology. Three causal loop diagrams for the future energy system in Korea and related policy leverages were shown as well. 'Global economic trends', 'change of industrial structure' and 'energy price' were identified as key uncertainty factors determining the Korean energy future. Three causal loop diagrams named as 'rate of energy self－sufficiency and alternative energy production', 'economic activity and energy demand' and 'Excavation of new growth engines' were developed. We integrated those causal loop diagrams into one to understand the entire energy system of the future, proposed three strategic scenarios(optimistic, pessimistic and most likely) and discussed implications and limits of this research.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 1999.05a
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• pp.95-102
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• 1999

Because a driver is located in the front end of KHST, he is most likely to be insured at collision accidents. So, it is very important to design some survival space for the driver. To evaluate the driver's safety of KHST (Korean High Speed Train), the front structure of power car is analysed using PAMCRASH under the SNCF accident scenario(collision against a movable rigid mass 15 ton at 110㎞/h). Because the driver's cab of KHST is a modified version of TGV-K, which is not so strong as to protect him, it turns out to be inadequate to guarantee his survival space. Therefore it is recommended to redesign the driver's cab in a crashworthy point of view like the case of TGV-Duplex or NEC.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.175-190
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• 2024

In order to project changes in climate zones across the Korean Peninsula, the Trewartha's climate classification was applied to the SSP-RCP scenario data with a 1km resolution produced by the National Institute of Agricultural Sciences of the Rural Development Administration. Currently, most of the Korean Peninsula (92.3%) belongs to the temperate climate type (D), whereas only some areas (4.9%), such as Jeju Island, belongs to the subtropical climate type (C). According to SSP-RCP scenarios, the temperature is expected to gradually increase due to the influence of global warming during the 21st century, and the subtropical climate type is expected to expand to 14.1 to 48.6% of the total area of the Korean Peninsula in the far future. On the other hand, the temperate zone, which is currently most dominant on the Korean Peninsula, is expected to shrink by 85.8 to 51.4% in the late 21st century. If carbon dioxide emissions continue at the current rate, the entire Korean Peninsula will likely be dominated by subtropical and temperate regions in the distant future. In particular, the subtropical climate type is expected to dominate most of South Korea in the high-carbon scenario, except for highlands.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.47 no.2
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• pp.208-225
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• 2012

The spatial characteristics of changes in extreme temperature indices for 2070-2099 relative to 1971-2000 in the Republic of Korea were investigated using daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperature data from a regional climate model (HadGEM3-RA) based on the IPCC RCP4.5/8.5 at 12.5km grid spacing and observations. Six temperature-based indices were selected to consider the frequency and intensity of extreme temperature events. For validation during the reference period (1971-2000), the simulated Tmax and Tmin distributions reasonably reproduce annual and seasonal characteristics not only for the relative probability but also the variation range. In the future (2070-2099), the occurrence of summer days (SD) and tropical nights (TR) is projected to be more frequent in the entire region while the occurrence of ice days (ID) and frost days (FD) is likely to decrease. The increase of averaged Tmax above 95th percentile (TX95) and Tmin below 5th percentile (TN5) is also projected. These changes are more pronounced under RCP8.5 scenario than RCP4.5. The changes in extreme temperature indices except for FD show significant correlations with altitude, and the changes in ID, TR, and TN5 also show significant correlations with latitude. The mountainous regions are projected to be more influenced by an increase of low extreme temperature than low altitude while the southern coast is likely to be more influenced by an increase of tropical nights.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.58 no.6
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• pp.93-100
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• 2016

This study conducted a quantitative assessment on the environmental flows associated with climate change in the Gosam Reservoir, Korea. The application of RCP 8.5 climate change scenario has found that the peak value of High Flow Pulses has increased by 36.0 % on average compared to historical data (2001 ~ 2010), which is likely to cause disadvantage on flood control and management but the increase in peak value is expected to make a positive impact on resolving the issue of green algal blooms, promoting vegetation in surrounding areas and encouraging spawning and providing habitats for native species by releasing a larger amount of landslides as well as organic matters than the past. However, the decreasing pattern of the peak value of High Flow Pulses is quite apparent with the trend of delay on the occurrence time of peak value, necessitating a long-term impact analysis. The peak value of Large Floods shows a clear sign of decrease against climate change scenario, which is expected to lead to changes in fish species caused by degraded quality of water and decreasing habitats. A quicker occurrence of Small Floods is also expected to make an impact on the growth cycle of aquatic plants, and the reduction in occurrence frequency of Extreme Low Flows is to contribute to increasing the population of and raising the survival rate of native fish, greatly improving the aquatic ecosystem. The results of this study are expected to be useful to establish the water environment and ecological system in adapting or responding to climate change.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.57 no.5
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• pp.1-12
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• 2015

The study aimed to project inflows and demmands for the agricultural reservoir watersheds in South Korea considering a variety of regional characteristics and the uncertainty of future climate information. The study bias-corrected and spatially downscaled retrospective daily Global Climate Model (GCM) outputs under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios using non-parametric quantile mapping method to force Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Using the historical simulation, the skills of un-calibrated SWAT model (without calibration process) was evaluated for 5 reservoir watersheds (selected as well-monitored representatives). The study then, evaluated the performance of 9 GCMs in reproducing historical upstream inflow and irrigation demand at the five representative reservoirs. Finally future inflows and demands for 58 watersheds were projected using 9 GCMs projections under the two RCP scenarios. We demonstrated that (1) un-calibrated SWAT model is likely applicable to agricultural watershed, (2) the uncertainty of future climate information from different GCMs is significant, (3) multi-model ensemble (MME) shows comparatively resonable skills in reproducing water balances over the study area. The results of projection under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenario generally showed the increase of inflow by 9.4% and 10.8% and demand by 1.4% and 1.7%, respectively. More importantly, the results for different seasons and reservoirs varied considerably in the impacts of climate change.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.155-163
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• 2024

The purpose is to explore the meaning of the open space land use space pattern from the perspective of urban heat reduction using the land-use scenario. The employed methods are as follows: (1) to calculate the cooling capacity Index for each of five land use scenarios, using the InVEST Urban Cooling Model, (2) to calculate open space entropy & morphological spatial pattern for each land use scenario, using the Guidos Spatial Pattern Toolbox, and (3) to perform a Spearman rank correlation analysis between the InVEST and Guidos results. It is found that the rank correlation is moderate between the cooling capacity Index and the open space area ratio (rho=0.50). However, other relations are low. It is observed that only the total amount of open space is likely to have a meaning from the perspective of urban heat reduction, and that other open space location spatial patterns may not have much meaning from the perspective of urban thermal environment management.