• Title/Summary/Keyword: likely scenario

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GIS-based Estimation of Climate-induced Soil Erosion in Imha Basin (기후변화에 따른 임하댐 유역의 GIS 기반 토양침식 추정)

  • Lee, Khil Ha;Lee, Geun Sang;Cho, Hong Yeon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.3D
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    • pp.423-429
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    • 2008
  • The object of the present study is to estimate the potential effects of climate change and land use on soil erosion in the mid-east Korea. Simulated precipitation by CCCma climate model during 2030-2050 is used to model predicted soil erosion, and results are compared to observation. Simulation results allow relative comparison of the impact of climate change on soil erosion between current and predicted future condition. Expected land use changes driven by socio-economic change and plant growth driven by the increase of temperature and are taken into accounts in a comprehensive way. Mean precipitation increases by 17.7% (24.5%) for A2 (B2) during 2030-2050 compared to the observation period (1966-1998). In general predicted soil erosion for the B2 scenario is larger than that for the A2 scenario. Predicted soil erosion increases by 48%~90% under climate change except the scenario 1 and 2. Predicted soil erosion under the influence of temperature-induced fast plant growth, higher evapotranspiration rate, and fertilization effect (scenario 5 and 6) is approximately 25% less than that in the scenario 3 and 4. On the basis of the results it is said that precipitation and the corresponding soil erosion is likely to increase in the future and care needs to be taken in the study area.

An Empirical Study on the Investment Evaluation of Korean Global Companies Using a Real Option Valuation Model (우리나라 글로벌 기업의 실물옵션을 이용한 투자안 평가 실증연구)

  • Jeong, Eui-Jong
    • Plant Journal
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.42-48
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    • 2012
  • Under traditional analysis of the capital budgeting, NPV, it is assumed that management cannot react to deviation from the expected scenario of cash flow at the time of evaluation. In practice, however, it is less likely that the expected scenario will come true when new information arrives and uncertainty is resolved. Uncertainty and risk can be influenced through 'managerial flexibility', which becomes a central instrument for value creation. Real option framework including option to defer, option for staged investment, option to alter, option to abandon, option to switch, etc. takes this managerial flexibility into account. Therefore, it is more appropriate to use real option method to evaluate the project than the traditional DCF(discounted cash flow) tool if the firm has high volatility of the expected returns.

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Constraining the shielded wind scenario in PG 2112+059

  • Saez, Cristian;Brandt, Niel;Bauer, Franz;Hamann, Fred;Chartas, George;Gallagher, Sarah
    • The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.41 no.1
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    • pp.36.1-36.1
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    • 2016
  • The physical scenario describing the origin of quasar winds remains largely unsettled due to our failure to account for X-ray weak BAL quasars. We approach this problem by studying the relation between the inner part of the outflow which is likely to be shielding the X-ray emission and thereby helping to drive the UV winds characterised by broad absorption lines (BALs). In particular, we aim to probe the wind-shield connection in the highly X-ray variable BAL quasar PG 2112+059, which has exhibited periods of X-ray weakness and X-ray normality in the past. A set of two 20 ks Chandra observations and two contemporaneous HST observations, separated by at least eight months, combined with a nearly simultaneous archival Chandra-HST observation from 2002, afford us a unique opportunity to study the connection between the shield (which is thought to be responsible for the X-ray absorption) and the ionisation state of the wind (observed as UV BAL features; e.g., C IV and O VI lines) over various timescales.

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CONSTRUCTION EDUCATIONAL GAME FOR K-12

  • Youjin Jang;Moonseo Park;Hyun-Soo Lee;Chanhyuk Park
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2013.01a
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    • pp.546-552
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    • 2013
  • The future competitiveness of construction industry is dependent on K-12 students. However, unfavorable images of construction industry have negative influence on K-12 students' decision-making of their career. This negative image makes them not want to find out what actually happens in construction industry. Consequently, it is important to give K-12 students the opportunity to know what construction employees actually do in their job. Studies show that K-12 students who encounter the job early-on are more likely to choose it as their career. In this context, this paper proposes construction educational game in which it can serve as a medium for capturing K-12 students' interest in Construction Management (CM). Based on the literature reviews, challenges of construction educational game for K-12 students which are edutainment, hands-on experience and social interaction, are derived. To address these issues, conceptual model and scenario are designed. Based on designed scenario, prototype of Simulation based Construction Game in Virtual World (SCGVW) is developed in Second Life (SL) and applicability test to K-12 students are implemented. This paper concludes with a discussion of the lessons learned and the future development steps of the construction educational game for K-12 students.

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Application of Approved Baseline Methodologies for CDM Projects in Korea (Case Study : Landfill Gas-to-Electricity Projects) (청정개발체제(CDM) 베이스라인 방법론 적용에 관한 고찰 (사례연구 : 국내 매립지가스 발전사업))

  • Han, Seung-Ho
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.69-93
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    • 2006
  • This paper considers major three steps to arrive at accurate baseline emissions against which actual emission reductions attributable to CDM projects are accounted for. The first step is to select most likely baseline scenario among plausible alternatives. Then, the additionality of the project in question would be assessed by demonstrating that the project is not included in the baseline scenario selected. Finally, baseline emissions are calculated under the baseline scenario. In this paper, these three steps are integrated into a single flow chart in order to help understand the procedures for application of a baseline methodology better. Following the flow chart, a landfill gas-to-electricity project in Korea is analyzed as a case study. In consequence, this paper concludes that landfill gas-to-electricity projects in Korea have great potential for CDM projects, and it could also be concluded that data availability and reliability are a prerequisite for successful application of baseline methodologies for landfill gas projects to Korean specific situations.

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Risk Assessment Based on Highway Hydrogen Chloride Gas Leakage Scenario Using GIS (GIS를 활용한 고속도로 염화수소 가스 누출 시나리오 기반 리스크 평가)

  • Kim, Kuyoon;Lee, Jaejoon;Yun, Hongsik
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.591-601
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    • 2021
  • As the domestic chemical industry continues to develop, handling and transportation of chemicals increases every year. Road freight in Korea accounts for more than 90%, and most of the chemical transportation is done through roads. These chemical vehicles can lead to major accidents if accidents occur. Transportation vehicles are likely to cause water pollution and soil pollution, which are factors of environmental damage, as well as traffic accidents that are the primary damage. In this work, we write a scenario for hydrogen chloride gas leakage by setting Banpo IC and Seocho IC sections as research areas, and use the ALOHA program to measure the predicted distance and analyze the time when hydrogen chloride gas reached according to the distance. In addition, risk assessment using population density was carried out for areas of damage caused by time using GIS. This suggests the need for prevention and countermeasures in areas of damage.

Data-driven Model Prediction of Harmful Cyanobacterial Blooms in the Nakdong River in Response to Increased Temperatures Under Climate Change Scenarios (기후변화 시나리오의 기온상승에 따른 낙동강 남세균 발생 예측을 위한 데이터 기반 모델 시뮬레이션)

  • Gayeon Jang;Minkyoung Jo;Jayun Kim;Sangjun Kim;Himchan Park;Joonhong Park
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.40 no.3
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    • pp.121-129
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    • 2024
  • Harmful cyanobacterial blooms (HCBs) are caused by the rapid proliferation of cyanobacteria and are believed to be exacerbated by climate change. However, the extent to which HCBs will be stimulated in the future due to increased temperature remains uncertain. This study aims to predict the future occurrence of cyanobacteria in the Nakdong River, which has the highest incidence of HCBs in South Korea, based on temperature rise scenarios. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were used as the basis for these scenarios. Data-driven model simulations were conducted, and out of the four machine learning techniques tested (multiple linear regression, support vector regressor, decision tree, and random forest), the random forest model was selected for its relatively high prediction accuracy. The random forest model was used to predict the occurrence of cyanobacteria. The results of boxplot and time-series analyses showed that under the worst-case scenario (RCP8.5 (2100)), where temperature increases significantly, cyanobacterial abundance across all study areas was greatly stimulated. The study also found that the frequencies of HCB occurrences exceeding certain thresholds (100,000 and 1,000,000 cells/mL) increased under both the best-case scenario (RCP2.6 (2050)) and worst-case scenario (RCP8.5 (2100)). These findings suggest that the frequency of HCB occurrences surpassing a certain threshold level can serve as a useful diagnostic indicator of vulnerability to temperature increases caused by climate change. Additionally, this study highlights that water bodies currently susceptible to HCBs are likely to become even more vulnerable with climate change compared to those that are currently less susceptible.

Risk Assessment of Arsenic-Contaminated Groundwater in Multiple Scenarios in a Rural Area of Gyeongnam Province, Korea (경남 농촌 지역 비소 오염 지하수의 시나리오별 위해성 평가)

  • Oh, Serim;Lee, Jin-Yong;Moon, Sang-Ho;Jang, Jiwook;Jeong, Eunju
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.437-448
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    • 2022
  • This work aims to assess the threat to human health of hazardous materials in groundwater that is used domestically and for drinking. Two distinct sub-assessments are considered: cancer and non-cancer risk. The studied groundwater is in an agricultural area of Gyeongnam Province, Korea, and is contaminated by arsenic at a mean level of 16.27 ㎍/L, far greater than the WHO guideline (10 ㎍/L for drinking water). We collected groundwater data from the National Groundwater Information Center (gims.go.kr) and assessed the risk to human health following the methodology of the United States Environmental Protection Agency. We considered three exposure scenarios: domestic use (scenario 1) and drinking use with different doses (scenarios 2 and 3). Scenario 1 had a median hazard quotient (HQ) of 0.77 and a cancer risk (CR) of 0.013. Scenario 2 had a median HQ of 0.08 and a CR of 3.69 × 10-5, and the values for scenario 3 were 0.11 and 4.82 × 10-5, respectively. Scenario 1 is likely the most hazardous to human health. Further study of the origin of arsenic in groundwater in the study area is required, as are remedial measures to mitigate its health effects.

Corporate Strategies for Responding to Negative Comments on Restaurant Pages on Facebook

  • Song, Ja-Hyun;Kim, Hyun-Jung
    • Culinary science and hospitality research
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.61-70
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study is to identify the effects of a company's response strategies (response type, communication style, and response sincerity) on customer's brand attitude and purchase intentions. A fictional Facebook fan page containing 6 separate scenarios was developed based on actual customer reviews and company responses observed on Facebook restaurant fan pages. Participants were recruited from Amazon's Mechanical Turk (MTurk). A total of 202 responses were obtained; 185 responses were analyzed after deleting insufficient responses. The results of MANOVA found that an accommodative response leads customers to have a more favorable attitude towards a brand and have stronger purchasing intentions. In addition, customers who perceive the company's response to a negative review as sincere are more likely to have a positive brand attitude and purchasing intentions, as compared to those who perceive it as either insincere or neutral.

Compression history detection for MP3 audio

  • Yan, Diqun;Wang, Rangding;Zhou, Jinglei;Jin, Chao;Wang, Zhifeng
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.662-675
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    • 2018
  • Compression history detection plays an important role in digital multimedia forensics. Most existing works, however, mainly focus on digital image and video. Additionally, the existed audio compression detection algorithms aim to detect the trace of double compression. In real forgery scenario, multiple compression is more likely to happen. In this paper, we proposed a detection algorithm to reveal the compression history for MP3 audio. The statistics of the scale factor and Huffman table index which are the parameters of MP3 codec have been extracted as the detecting features. The experimental results have shown that the proposed method can effectively identify whether the testing audio has been previously treated with single/double/triple compression.