• Title/Summary/Keyword: interval system

Search Result 2,378, Processing Time 0.036 seconds

The Impact of monsoon Rainfall (Changma) on the Changes of Water Quality in the Lower Nakdong River (Mulgeum) (장마기의 강우가 낙동강 하류 (물금) 수질에 미치는 영향)

  • Park, Sung-Bae;Lee, Sang-Kyun;Chang, Kwang-Hyeon;Jeong, Kwang-Suek;Joo, Gea-Jae
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
    • /
    • v.35 no.3 s.99
    • /
    • pp.160-171
    • /
    • 2002
  • The impact of summer monsoon on water quality of the lower Nakdong River was evaluated during the summer (June-August) in 1997. Several limnological variables were measured in the interval of $1{\sim}3$ day using an automatic monitoring system (Hydrolab $Recorder^{TM}$) to detect water quality changes caused by rainfall on onehour basis. During the monsoon period (from late June to mid July), 5 times of major rainfall events of >50 mm were recorded in the river basin. Dynamic changes of water quality were observed during the monsoon, and the first rainfall event (June$25{\sim}27$) had a significant influence on the water quality at the lower part of the river. All Parameters were largely changed due to the first rain event, and the changed level was maintained until the end of monsoon period. Nutrient concentrations and turbidity increased and values of the other parameters were declined as a result of water dilution. This rainfall event, Changma, is a meteorological phenomenon caused by the East-Asian monsoon climate. The magnitude and frequency of the rainfall during the early monsoon play an important role in change of water quality and ecosystem characteristics of large river systems.

Sequential Changes in Understory Vegetation Community for 15 Years in the Long-Term Ecological Research Site in Central Temperate Broad-leaved Deciduous Forest of Korea (한반도 온대중부 낙엽활엽수림 장기생태조사지에서 15년간 하층식생 군집의 시계열적 변화)

  • Kim, Min-Su;Yun, Soon-Jin;Park, Chan-Woo;Choi, Won-Il;Chun, Jung-Hwa;Lim, Jong-Hwan;Bae, Kwan-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
    • /
    • v.35 no.3
    • /
    • pp.223-236
    • /
    • 2021
  • This study aims to provide basic data for the systematic conservation and efficient management of forest ecosystems by analyzing changes in understory vegetation of temperate broad-leaved deciduous forests. One-hectare permanent survey plot, consisting of 100 subplots sized 10 × 10 meters, was installed in Gwangneung forest in Pocheon, Gyeonggi-do in 2003. The state of stands and the understory vegetation in the permanent survey plot were examined at a 5-year interval from 2003 to 2018. The vascular plants found in the survey area were 56 families, 128 genera, 176 species, 18 variants, 4 varieties, and 1 subspecies, for a total of 199 taxa. The number of species in both the shrub layer and the herbaceous layer showed a tendency to decrease with time. The MRPP-tests showed a significantly differing species composition of the shrub layer in all years except 2008-2013, whereas significant differences were found in all years concerning the herbaceous layer. As for the average importance value, Euonymus oxyphyllus (18.23%), Acer pseudosieboldianum (16.48%), and Callicarpa japonica (13.85%) were dominant in the shrub layer, while Ainsliaea acerifolia (23.41%), Disporum smilacinum (9.45%), and Oplismenus undulatifolius (5.62%) were dominant in the herbaceous layer. In the shrub layer, the richness of Smilax china, Lonicera subsessilis, and Philadelphus schrenkii was high when the basal area and the stand density of an upper layer were high. By contrast, smaller basal area and stand density were associated with the richness of Acer pseudosieboldianum, Deutzia glabrata, Morus bombycis, and Cornus kousa. Furthermore, it was found out that the impact of the basal area and the stand density on the herbaceous layer decreased over time, while the herb layer's species composition was greatly affected by cover degrees of Euonymus oxyphyllus and Acer pseudosieboldianum in the shrub layer. In conclusion, the number of species in the understory vegetation in Gwangneung forest is continuously decreasing, thus implying that species diversity, basal area, and stand density of an upper layer can influence the species composition in understory vegetation.

Analysis of Literatures Related to Crop Growth and Yield of Onion and Garlic Using Text-mining Approaches for Develop Productivity Prediction Models (양파·마늘 생산성 예측 모델 개발을 위한 텍스트마이닝 기법 활용 생육 및 수량 관련 문헌 분석)

  • Kim, Jin-Hee;Kim, Dae-Jun;Seo, Bo-Hun;Kim, Kwang Soo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.23 no.4
    • /
    • pp.374-390
    • /
    • 2021
  • Growth and yield of field vegetable crops would be affected by climate conditions, which cause a relatively large fluctuation in crop production and consumer price over years. The yield prediction system for these crops would support decision-making on policies to manage supply and demands. The objectives of this study were to compile literatures related to onion and garlic and to perform data-mining analysis, which would shed lights on the development of crop models for these major field vegetable crops in Korea. The literatures on crop growth and yield were collected from the databases operated by Research Information Sharing Service, National Science & Technology Information Service and SCOPUS. The keywords were chosen to retrieve research outcomes related to crop growth and yield of onion and garlic. These literatures were analyzed using text mining approaches including word cloud and semantic networks. It was found that the number of publications was considerably less for the field vegetable crops compared with rice. Still, specific patterns between previous research outcomes were identified using the text mining methods. For example, climate change and remote sensing were major topics of interest for growth and yield of onion and garlic. The impact of temperature and irrigation on crop growth was also assessed in the previous studies. It was also found that yield of onion and garlic would be affected by both environment and crop management conditions including sowing time, variety, seed treatment method, irrigation interval, fertilization amount and fertilizer composition. For meteorological conditions, temperature, precipitation, solar radiation and humidity were found to be the major factors in the literatures. These indicate that crop models need to take into account both environmental and crop management practices for reliable prediction of crop yield.

Development of Correction Formulas for KMA AAOS Soil Moisture Observation Data (기상청 농업기상관측망 토양수분 관측자료 보정식 개발)

  • Choi, Sung-Won;Park, Juhan;Kang, Minseok;Kim, Jongho;Sohn, Seungwon;Cho, Sungsik;Chun, Hyenchung;Jung, Ki-Yuol
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.24 no.1
    • /
    • pp.13-34
    • /
    • 2022
  • Soil moisture data have been collected at 11 agrometeorological stations operated by The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). This study aimed to verify the accuracy of soil moisture data of KMA and develop a correction formula to be applied to improve their quality. The soil of the observation field was sampled to analyze its physical properties that affect soil water content. Soil texture was classified to be sandy loam and loamy sand at most sites. The bulk density of the soil samples was about 1.5 g/cm3 on average. The content of silt and clay was also closely related to bulk density and water holding capacity. The EnviroSCAN model, which was used as a reference sensor, was calibrated using the self-manufactured "reference soil moisture observation system". Comparison between the calibrated reference sensor and the field sensor of KMA was conducted at least three times at each of the 11 sites. Overall, the trend of fluctuations over time in the measured values of the two sensors appeared similar. Still, there were sites where the latter had relatively lower soil moisture values than the former. A linear correction formula was derived for each site and depth using the range and average of the observed data for the given period. This correction formula resulted in an improvement in agreement between sensor values at the Suwon site. In addition, the detailed approach was developed to estimate the correction value for the period in which a correction formula was not calculated. In summary, the correction of soil moisture data at a regular time interval, e.g., twice a year, would be recommended for all observation sites to improve the quality of soil moisture observation data.

Cardio-pulmonary Adaptation to Physical Training (운동훈련(運動訓練)에 대(對)한 심폐기능(心肺機能)의 적응(適應)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Cho, Kang-Ha
    • The Korean Journal of Physiology
    • /
    • v.1 no.1
    • /
    • pp.103-120
    • /
    • 1967
  • As pointed out by many previous investigators, the cardio-pulmonary system of well trained athletes is so adapted that they can perform a given physical exercise more efficiently as compared to non-trained persons. However, the time course of the development of these cardio-pulmonary adaptations has not been extensively studied in the past. Although the development of these training effects is undoubtedly related to the magnitude of an exercise load which is repeatedly given, it would be practical if one could maintain a good physical fitness with a minimal daily exercise. Hence, the present investigation was undertaken to study the time course of the development of cardio-pulmonary adaptations while a group of non-athletes was subjected to a daily 6 to 10 minutes running exercise for a period of 4 weeks. Six healthy male medical students (22 to 24 years old) were randomly selected as experimental subjects, and were equally divided into two groups (A and B). Both groups were subjected to the same daily running exercise (approximately 1,000 kg-m). 6 days a week for 4 weeks, but the rate of exercise was such that the group A ran on treadmill with 8.6% grade for 10 min daily at a speed of 127 m/min while the group B ran for 6 min at a speed of 200 m/min. In order to assess the effects of these physical trainings on the cardio-pulmonary system, the minute volume, the $O_2$ consumption, the $CO_2$ output and the heart rate were determined weekly while the subject was engaged in a given running exercise on treadmill (8.6% grade and 127 m/min) for a period of 5 min. In addition, the arterial blood pressure, the cardiac output, the acid-base state of arterial blood and the gas composition of arterial blood were also determined every other week in 4 subjects (2 from each group) while they were engaged in exercise on a bicycle ergometer at a rate of approximately 900 kg m/min until exhaustion. The maximal work capacity was also determined by asking the subject to engage in exercise on treadmill and ergometer until exhaustion. For the measurement of minute volume, the expired gas was collected in a Douglas bag. The $O_2$ consumption and the $CO_2$ output were subsequently computed by analysing the expired gas with a Scholander micro gas analyzer. The heart rate was calculated from the R-R interval of ECG tracings recorded by an Offner RS Dynograph. A 19 gauge Cournand needle was inserted into a brachial artery, through which arterial blood samples were taken. A Statham $P_{23}AA$ pressure transducer and a PR-7 Research Recorder were used for recording instantaneous arterial pressure. The cardiac output was measured by indicator (Cardiogreen) dilution method. The results may be summarized as follows: (1) The maximal running time on treadmill increased linearly during the 4 week training period at the end of which it increased by 2.8 to 4.6 times. In general, an increase in the maximal running time was greater when the speed was fixed at a level at which the subject was trained. The mammal exercise time on bicycle ergometer also increased linearly during the training period. (2) In carrying out a given running exercise on treadmill (8.6%grade, 127 m/min), the following changes in cardio·pulmonary functions were observed during the training period: (a) The minute volume as well as the $O_2$ consumption during steady state exercise tended to decrease progressively and showed significant reductions after 3 weeks of training. (b) The $CO_2$ production during steady state exercise showed a significant reduction within 1 week of training. (c) The heart rate during steady state exercise tended to decrease progressively and showed a significant reduction after 2 weeks of training. The reduction of heart rate following a given exercise tended to become faster by training and showed a significant change after 3 weeks. Although the resting heart rate also tended to decrease by training, no significant change was observed. (3) In rallying out a given exercise (900 kg-m/min) on a bicycle ergometer, the following change in cardio-vascular functions were observed during the training period: (3) The systolic blood pressure during steady state exercise was not affected while the diastolic blood Pressure was significantly lowered after 4 weeks of training. The resting diastolic pressure was also significantly lowered by the end of 4 weeks. (b) The cardiac output and the stroke volume during steady state exercise increased maximally within 2 weeks of training. However, the resting cardiac output was not altered while the resting stroke volume tended to increase somewhat by training. (c) The total peripheral resistance during steady state exercise was greatly lowered within 2 weeks of training. The mean circulation time during exorcise was also considerably shortened while the left heart work output during exercise increased significantly within 2 weeks. However, these functions_at rest were not altered by training. (d) Although both pH, $P_{co2}\;and\;(HCO_3-)$ of arterial plasma decreased during exercise, the magnitude of reductions became less by training. On the other hand, the $O_2$ content of arterial blood decreased during exercise before training while it tended to increase slightly after training. There was no significant alteration in these values at rest. These results indicate that cardio-pulmonary adaptations to physical training can be acquired by subjecting non-athletes to brief daily exercise routine for certain period of time. Although the time of appearance of various adaptive phenomena is not identical, it may be stated that one has to engage in daily exercise routine for at least 2 weeks for the development of significant adaptive changes.

  • PDF

Problems in the field of maternal and child health care and its improvement in rural Korea (우리나라 농촌(農村)의 모자보건(母子保健)의 문제점(問題點)과 개선방안(改善方案))

  • Lee, Sung-Kwan
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
    • /
    • v.1 no.1
    • /
    • pp.29-36
    • /
    • 1976
  • Introduction Recently, changes in the patterns and concepts of maternity care, in both developing and developed countries have been accelerating. An outstanding development in this field is the number of deliveries taking place in hospitals or maternity centers. In Korea, however, more than 90% of deliveries are carried out at home with the help of untrained relatives or even without helpers. It is estimated that less than 10% of deliveries are assisted by professional persons such as a physician or a midwife. Taking into account the shortage of professional person i11 rural Korea, it is difficult to expect widespread prenatal, postnatal, and delivery care by professional persons in the near future, It is unrealistic, therefore, to expect rapid development of MCH care by professional persons in rural Korea due to economic and sociological reasons. Given these conditions. it is reasonable that an educated village women could used as a "maternity aid", serving simple and technically easy roles in the MCH field, if we could give such a women incentive to do so. The midwife and physician are assigned difficult problems in the MCH field which could not be solved by the village worker. However, with the application of the village worker system, we could expect to improve maternal and child hoalth through the replacement of untrained relatives as birth attendants with educated and trained maternity aides. We hope that this system will be a way of improving MCH care, which is only one part of the general health services offered at the local health centre level. Problems of MCH in rural Korea The field of MCH is not only the weakest point in the medical field in our country hut it has also dropped behind other developing countries. Regarding the knowledge about pregnancy and delivery, a large proportion of our respondents reported having only a little knowledge, while 29% reported that they had "sufficient" knowledge. The average number of pregnancies among women residing in rural areas was 4.3 while the rate of women with 5 or more pregnancies among general women and women who terminated childbearing were 43 and 80% respectively. The rate of unwanted pregnancy among general women was 19.7%. The total rate for complications during pregnancy was 15.4%, toxemia being the major complication. The rate of pregnant women with chronic disease was 7%. Regarding the interval of pregnancy, the rates of pregnancy within 12 months and within 36 months after last delivery were 9 and 49% respectively. Induced abortion has been increasing in rural areas, being as high as 30-50% in some locations. The maternal death rate was shown 10 times higher than in developed countries (35/10,000 live births). Prenatal care Most women had no consultation with a physician during the prenatal period. Of those women who did have prenatal care, the majority (63%) received such care only 1 or 2 times throughout the entire period of pregnancy. Also, in 80% of these women the first visit Game after 4 months of gestation. Delivery conditions This field is lagging behind other public health problems in our country. Namely, more than 95% of the women deliveried their baby at home, and delivery attendance by a professional person occurred only 11% of the time. Attendance rate by laymen was 78% while those receiving no care at all was 16%. For instruments used to cut the umbilical corn, sterilized scissors were used by 19%, non-sterilized scissors by 63% and 16% used sickles. Regarding delivery sheets, the rate of use of clean sheets was only 10%, unclean sheets, vinyl and papers 72%, and without sheets, 18%. The main reason for not using a hospital as a place of delivery was that the women felt they did not need it as they had previously experience easy deliveries outside hospitals. Difficult delivery composed about 5% of the total. Child health The main food for infants (95%) was breast milk. Regarding weaning time, the rates within one year, up to one and half, two, three and more than three years were 28,43,60,81 and 91% respectively, and even after the next pregnancy still continued lactation. The vaccination of children is the only service for child health in rural Korea. As shown in the Table, the rates of all kinds of vaccination were very low and insufficient. Infant death rate was 42 per 1,000 live births. Most of the deaths were caused by preventable diseases. Death of infants within the neonatal period was 83% meaning that deaths from communicable diseases decreased remarkably after that time. Infant deaths which occurred without medical care was 52%. Methods of improvement in the MCH field 1. Through the activities of village health workers (VHW) to detect pregnant women by home visiting and. after registration. visiting once a month to observe any abnormalities in pregnant women. If they find warning signs of abnormalities. they refer them to the public health nurse or midwife. Sterilized delivery kits were distributed to the expected mother 2 weeks prior to expected date of delivery by the VHW. If a delivery was expected to be difficult, then the VHW took the mother to a physician or call a physician to help after birth, the VHW visits the mother and baby to confirm health and to recommend the baby be given proper vaccination. 2. Through the midwife or public health nurse (aid nurse) Examination of pregnant women who are referred by the VHW to confirm abnormalities and to treat them. If the midwife or aid nurse could not solve the problems, they refer the pregnant women to the OB-GY specialist. The midwife and PHN will attend in the cases of normal deliveries and they help in the birth. The PHN will conduct vaccination for all infants and children under 5, years old. 3. The Physician will help only in those cases referred to him by the PHN or VHW. However, the physician should examine all pregnant women at least three times during their pregnancy. First, the physician will identify the pregnancy and conduct general physical examination to confirm any chronic disease that might disturb the continuity of the pregnancy. Second, if the pregnant woman shows any abnormalities the physician must examine and treat. Third, at 9 or 10 months of gestation (after sitting of the baby) the physician should examine the position of the fetus and measure the pelvis to recommend institutional delivery of those who are expected to have a difficult delivery. And of course. the medical care of both the mother and the infants are responsible of the physician. Overall, large areas of the field of MCH would be served by the VHW, PHN, or midwife so the physician is needed only as a parttime worker.

  • PDF

Diving patterns and diving related disease of diving fishermen in Korea (수산물채취 잠수부의 작업특성과 잠수관련질환의 양상)

  • SaKong, Joon
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
    • /
    • v.31 no.1 s.60
    • /
    • pp.139-156
    • /
    • 1998
  • Diving related disease including decompression sickness is an important occupational health problem and diving fishermen remain a fairly hazardous occupation in Korea. To prevent diving related disease, we investigate diving patterns, incidence of diving related diseases, and contributing factors of 433 diving fishermen of three coast interviewing and mailing questionnaire in 1996. Mean age of divers was 39.7 years, ranged from 24 to 58 years, 92.8% of these were male, and 58.4% of divers were high school graduates. Mean duration of work as a diver was 12.9 years, ranged from 2 to 40 years. It was found that 70.4% of divers were using hookah system, 22.2% of helmet, and only 2.5% SCUBA. About half of them have learned diving skills from other divers. The peak season of diving was from April to June and mean working days were 20.3 days per month during the peak season. On the average, the divers dived 5-6 times, ranged from 1 to 10 times a day with 51.1 minutes of diving time, ranged from 20 to 120 minutes, at 30 m or 40 m in depth, and 35.5 minute of interval on surface. Most divers ascended slowly making decompression stop, yet the decompression profile used was not based on any scientific knowledge except for their own experiences. It appeared that each diving system had slightly different diving patterns. There were 282(65.0%) divers that suffered from DCS in 1995 and 31.2% of divers were given recompression therapy at a medical facility since they worked as diving fishermen. Skin and musculoskeletal complaints were common symptoms of DCS and 39% of divers experienced a voiding difficulty. In univariate analysis, females have an increased frequency of DCS(93% vs 66% for males). Old age, long duration of work, helmet diving, diving time, diving depth, repetitive diving, and blow up were all contributing factors to DCS. It was found that most diving patterns exceed no decompression limit and did not use the standard decompression table. This suggests that most of divers are at high risk of developing diving related disease with prolonged dives and lengthy repetitive diving in deep depth. Considering the diving patterns and economic aspect of professional diving, the incidence of DCS among diving fishermen in Korea will not decrease in the near future. These findings suggest that periodical health surveillance for divers, and education of health and safety are important for reducing the risk of diving related disease in the population of diving fishermen.

  • PDF

A Thermal Time-Driven Dormancy Index as a Complementary Criterion for Grape Vine Freeze Risk Evaluation (포도 동해위험 판정기준으로서 온도시간 기반의 휴면심도 이용)

  • Kwon, Eun-Young;Jung, Jea-Eun;Chung, U-Ran;Lee, Seung-Jong;Song, Gi-Cheol;Choi, Dong-Geun;Yun, Jin-I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.8 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-9
    • /
    • 2006
  • Regardless of the recent observed warmer winters in Korea, more freeze injuries and associated economic losses are reported in fruit industry than ever before. Existing freeze-frost forecasting systems employ only daily minimum temperature for judging the potential damage on dormant flowering buds but cannot accommodate potential biological responses such as short-term acclimation of plants to severe weather episodes as well as annual variation in climate. We introduce 'dormancy depth', in addition to daily minimum temperature, as a complementary criterion for judging the potential damage of freezing temperatures on dormant flowering buds of grape vines. Dormancy depth can be estimated by a phonology model driven by daily maximum and minimum temperature and is expected to make a reasonable proxy for physiological tolerance of buds to low temperature. Dormancy depth at a selected site was estimated for a climatological normal year by this model, and we found a close similarity in time course change pattern between the estimated dormancy depth and the known cold tolerance of fruit trees. Inter-annual and spatial variation in dormancy depth were identified by this method, showing the feasibility of using dormancy depth as a proxy indicator for tolerance to low temperature during the winter season. The model was applied to 10 vineyards which were recently damaged by a cold spell, and a temperature-dormancy depth-freeze injury relationship was formulated into an exponential-saturation model which can be used for judging freeze risk under a given set of temperature and dormancy depth. Based on this model and the expected lowest temperature with a 10-year recurrence interval, a freeze risk probability map was produced for Hwaseong County, Korea. The results seemed to explain why the vineyards in the warmer part of Hwaseong County have been hit by more freeBe damage than those in the cooler part of the county. A dormancy depth-minimum temperature dual engine freeze warning system was designed for vineyards in major production counties in Korea by combining the site-specific dormancy depth and minimum temperature forecasts with the freeze risk model. In this system, daily accumulation of thermal time since last fall leads to the dormancy state (depth) for today. The regional minimum temperature forecast for tomorrow by the Korea Meteorological Administration is converted to the site specific forecast at a 30m resolution. These data are input to the freeze risk model and the percent damage probability is calculated for each grid cell and mapped for the entire county. Similar approaches may be used to develop freeze warning systems for other deciduous fruit trees.

The Prediction of Export Credit Guarantee Accident using Machine Learning (기계학습을 이용한 수출신용보증 사고예측)

  • Cho, Jaeyoung;Joo, Jihwan;Han, Ingoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.27 no.1
    • /
    • pp.83-102
    • /
    • 2021
  • The government recently announced various policies for developing big-data and artificial intelligence fields to provide a great opportunity to the public with respect to disclosure of high-quality data within public institutions. KSURE(Korea Trade Insurance Corporation) is a major public institution for financial policy in Korea, and thus the company is strongly committed to backing export companies with various systems. Nevertheless, there are still fewer cases of realized business model based on big-data analyses. In this situation, this paper aims to develop a new business model which can be applied to an ex-ante prediction for the likelihood of the insurance accident of credit guarantee. We utilize internal data from KSURE which supports export companies in Korea and apply machine learning models. Then, we conduct performance comparison among the predictive models including Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN(Deep Neural Network). For decades, many researchers have tried to find better models which can help to predict bankruptcy since the ex-ante prediction is crucial for corporate managers, investors, creditors, and other stakeholders. The development of the prediction for financial distress or bankruptcy was originated from Smith(1930), Fitzpatrick(1932), or Merwin(1942). One of the most famous models is the Altman's Z-score model(Altman, 1968) which was based on the multiple discriminant analysis. This model is widely used in both research and practice by this time. The author suggests the score model that utilizes five key financial ratios to predict the probability of bankruptcy in the next two years. Ohlson(1980) introduces logit model to complement some limitations of previous models. Furthermore, Elmer and Borowski(1988) develop and examine a rule-based, automated system which conducts the financial analysis of savings and loans. Since the 1980s, researchers in Korea have started to examine analyses on the prediction of financial distress or bankruptcy. Kim(1987) analyzes financial ratios and develops the prediction model. Also, Han et al.(1995, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2006) construct the prediction model using various techniques including artificial neural network. Yang(1996) introduces multiple discriminant analysis and logit model. Besides, Kim and Kim(2001) utilize artificial neural network techniques for ex-ante prediction of insolvent enterprises. After that, many scholars have been trying to predict financial distress or bankruptcy more precisely based on diverse models such as Random Forest or SVM. One major distinction of our research from the previous research is that we focus on examining the predicted probability of default for each sample case, not only on investigating the classification accuracy of each model for the entire sample. Most predictive models in this paper show that the level of the accuracy of classification is about 70% based on the entire sample. To be specific, LightGBM model shows the highest accuracy of 71.1% and Logit model indicates the lowest accuracy of 69%. However, we confirm that there are open to multiple interpretations. In the context of the business, we have to put more emphasis on efforts to minimize type 2 error which causes more harmful operating losses for the guaranty company. Thus, we also compare the classification accuracy by splitting predicted probability of the default into ten equal intervals. When we examine the classification accuracy for each interval, Logit model has the highest accuracy of 100% for 0~10% of the predicted probability of the default, however, Logit model has a relatively lower accuracy of 61.5% for 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. On the other hand, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN indicate more desirable results since they indicate a higher level of accuracy for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default but have a lower level of accuracy around 50% of the predicted probability of the default. When it comes to the distribution of samples for each predicted probability of the default, both LightGBM and XGBoost models have a relatively large number of samples for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. Although Random Forest model has an advantage with regard to the perspective of classification accuracy with small number of cases, LightGBM or XGBoost could become a more desirable model since they classify large number of cases into the two extreme intervals of the predicted probability of the default, even allowing for their relatively low classification accuracy. Considering the importance of type 2 error and total prediction accuracy, XGBoost and DNN show superior performance. Next, Random Forest and LightGBM show good results, but logistic regression shows the worst performance. However, each predictive model has a comparative advantage in terms of various evaluation standards. For instance, Random Forest model shows almost 100% accuracy for samples which are expected to have a high level of the probability of default. Collectively, we can construct more comprehensive ensemble models which contain multiple classification machine learning models and conduct majority voting for maximizing its overall performance.

Evaluation of Error Factors in Quantitative Analysis of Lymphoscintigraphy (Lymphoscintigraphy의 정량분석 시 오류 요인에 관한 평가)

  • Yeon, Joon-Ho;Kim, Soo-Yung;Choi, Sung-Ook;Seok, Jae-Dong
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
    • /
    • v.15 no.2
    • /
    • pp.76-82
    • /
    • 2011
  • Purpose: Lymphoscintigraphy is absolutely being used standard examination in lymphatic diagnosis, evaluation after treatment, and it is useful for lymphedema to plan therapy. In case of lymphoscintigraphy of lower-extremity lymphedema, it had an effect on results if patients had not pose same position on the examination of 1 min, 1 hour and 2 hours after injection. So we'll study the methods to improve confidence with minimized quantitative analysis errors by influence factors. Materials and Methods: Being used the Infinia of GE Co. we injected $^{99m}Tc$-phytate 37 MBq (1.0 mCi) 4 sylinges into 40 people's feet hypodermically from June to August 2010 in Samsung Medical Center. After we acquired images of fixed and unfixed condition, we confirmed the count values change by attenuation of soft tissue and bone according to different feet position. And we estimated 5 times increasing 2 cm of distance between $^{99m}Tc$ point source and detector each time to check counts difference according to distance change by different feet position. Finally, we compared 1 and 6 min lymphoscintigraphy images with same position to check the effect of quantitative analysis results owing to difference of amounts of movement of the $^{99m}Tc$-phytate in the lymphatic duct. Results: Percentage difference regarding error values showed minimum 2.7% and maximum 25.8% when comparing fixed and unfixed feet position of lymphoscintigraphy examination at 1 min after injection. And count values according to distance were 173,661 (2 cm), 172,095 (4 cm), 170,996 (6 cm), 167,677 (8 cm), 169,208 counts (10 cm) which distance was increased interval of 2 cm and basal value was mean 176,587 counts, and percentage difference values were not over 2.5% such as 1.27, 1.79, 2.04, 2.42, 2.35%. Also, Assessment results about amounts of movement in lymphatic duct within 6 min until scanning after injection showed minimum 0.15%, and maximum 2.3% which were amounts of movement. We can recognize that error values represent over 20% due to only attenuation of soft tissue and bone except for distance difference (2.42%) and amounts of movement in lymphatic duct (2.3%). Conclusion: It was show that if same patients posed different feet position on the examination of 1 min, 1 hour and 2 hours after injection in the lymphoscintigraphy which is evaluating lymphatic flow of patients with lymphedema and analyzing amount of intake by lymphatic system, maximum error value represented 25.8% due to attenuation of soft tissue and bone, and PASW (Predictive Analytics Software) showed that fixed and unfixed feet position was different each other. And difference of distance between detector and feet and change of count values by difference of examination beginning time after injection influence on quantitative analysis results partially. Therefore, we'll make an effort to fix feet position and make the most of fixing board in lymphoscintigraphy with quantitative analysis.

  • PDF