• Title/Summary/Keyword: innovation uncertainty

검색결과 199건 처리시간 0.022초

Using Real Options Pricing to Value Public R&D Investment in the Deep Seabed Manganese Nodule Project

  • Choi, Hyo-Yeon;Kwak, Seung-Jun;Yoo, Seung-Hoon
    • Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
    • /
    • 제5권2호
    • /
    • pp.197-207
    • /
    • 2016
  • This paper seeks to measure the monetary value of technical development in the deep seabed manganese nodule mining by applying the compound option model (COM). The COM is appropriate for the project in terms of its decision-making structure and embedded uncertainty. The estimation results show that the deep seabed mining project has more economic potential than shown by the previously obtained results from the discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. In addition, it is reasonable to invest in the project taking the various uncertainty factors into consideration, because the ratio of the value to the cost of the project is far higher than one. This information can be utilized in national ocean policy decision-making.

기술혁신의 관점에서 전자상거래 도입단계의 실증분석 (Analysis of Electronic Commerce Adoption from a Technological Innovation Perspective)

  • 서창교;이형석
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
    • /
    • 제10권2호
    • /
    • pp.197-211
    • /
    • 2000
  • Despite the increasing pervasiveness of electronic commerce, very little empirical research has been done to examine its use in organizational contexts. Based on theories from the technological innovation literature, we developed an integrated model of electronic commerce initiation, adoption and implementation in Korea. We selected a random sample of 500 Korean leading companies. A questionnaire survey examined factors in initiation, adoption, and implementation of electronic commerce. Independent variables of this research were environment uncertainty, organizational characteristics(namely, organizational size, centralization, and formalization), and information system maturity. The resultant study sample included 62 firms across the industries. The empirical tests of the hypotheses were performed. According to our findings, environmental uncertainty, centralization, formalization, and information system maturity have a significant effect on the electronic commerce initiation, adoption and implementation.

  • PDF

Maximum Entropy를 이용한 정량적 레이더 강우추정 불확실성 분석 (Uncertainty Analysis of Quantitative Radar Rainfall Estimation Using the Maximum Entropy)

  • 이재경
    • 대기
    • /
    • 제25권3호
    • /
    • pp.511-520
    • /
    • 2015
  • Existing studies on radar rainfall uncertainties were performed to reduce the uncertainty for each stage by using bias correction during the quantitative radar rainfall estimation process. However, the studies do not provide quantitative comparison with the uncertainties for all stages. Consequently, this study proposes a suitable approach that can quantify the uncertainties at each stage of the quantitative radar rainfall estimation process. First, the new approach can present initial and final uncertainties, increasing or decreasing the uncertainty, and the uncertainty percentage at each stage. Furthermore, Maximum Entropy (ME) was applied to quantify the uncertainty in the entire process. Second, for the uncertainty quantification of radar rainfall estimation at each stage, this study used two quality control algorithms, two rainfall estimation relations, and two bias correction techniques as post-processing and progressed through all stages of the radar rainfall estimation. For the proposed approach, the final uncertainty (ME = 3.81) from the ME of the bias correction stage was the smallest while the uncertainty of the rainfall estimation stage was higher because of the use of an unsuitable relation. Additionally, the ME of the quality control was at 4.28 (112.34%), while that of the rainfall estimation was at 4.53 (118.90%), and that of the bias correction at 3.81 (100%). However, this study also determined that selecting the appropriate method for each stage would gradually reduce the uncertainty at each stage. Finally, the uncertainty due to natural variability was 93.70% of the final uncertainty. Thus, the results indicate that this new approach can contribute significantly to the field of uncertainty estimation and help with estimating more accurate radar rainfall.

The Impact of Knowledge Management and Dynamic Capacity on the Ambidextrous Innovation of Korean MNCs in the Chinese Market

  • Yu, Xin-Ran;Kim, Tae-In
    • Journal of Korea Trade
    • /
    • 제24권1호
    • /
    • pp.99-112
    • /
    • 2020
  • Purpose - With the increasing uncertainty of China's domestic political and economic environment in recent years, Korean MNC subsidiaries in the Chinese market face greater challenges and competition. Based on the insufficiency of existing research and the need for enterprise management practices, this paper uses the Chinese subsidiaries of Korean MNCs as an example to study and explore how knowledge management and dynamic capabilities affect ambidextrous innovation and the relationship between ambidextrous innovation and subsidiary performance. Design/methodology - From January to March 2019, this study collected 341 valid questionnaires using a survey company specializing in China for the members of the Chinese subsidiaries of Korean MNCs to verify the hypotheses. Using the collected data, the study model was verified using the Smart PLS 3.0 statistical package. Findings - Knowledge transfer and knowledge sharing have positive effects on dynamic capabilities and ambidextrous innovation, and dynamic capabilities have a positive impact on ambidextrous innovation. Ambidextrous innovation has been shown to have a significant effect on subsidiary performance. In addition, a partial mediating effect of dynamic capabilities on the relationship between knowledge management and ambidexterity innovation was found. Originality/value - In the academic context, this paper contributes theoretically to the relationship between knowledge management and ambidextrous innovation, as well as the mechanism of dynamic capability, and to verify the relationship between ambidextrous innovation and corporate performance. Against the background of MNC management, the results of this study provide further enlightenment for managers of subsidiaries.

Factors Affecting Efficiency of Electronic Customs and Firm Performance in Vietnam

  • NGUYEN, Hang Thanh;GRANT, David Bruce;BOVIS, Christopher;NGUYEN, Thuy Thi Le;MAC, Yen Thi Hai
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • 제8권2호
    • /
    • pp.151-164
    • /
    • 2021
  • The paper identifies the enablers (drivers) and inhibitors (barriers) influencing e-customs implementation in Vietnam (known as a developing country with a lower technological environment) along with determining the impact of e-customs on firm performance. The survey was conducted with the representatives (managers) of firms in five cities and provinces dominating Vietnam's international trade. The data was analyzed using structural equation modeling (SEM). The findings show two significant drivers (enablers) - relative advantages and national culture, while compatibility and ease of use are the barriers. Previous studies showed that cultural dimensions related to 'uncertainty acceptance' and 'individualism' encourage innovation; however, this paper demonstrates that 'uncertainty avoidance' and 'collectivism' promote e-customs deployment in Vietnam. Previously, Vietnamese culture was known for scoring high on cultural dimensions related to 'power distance' and 'short-term orientation'. However, today, as an emerging country, Vietnamese has switched to 'low distance' and 'long-term orientation', especially in terms of e-customs innovation. Additionally, the paper also emphasized that e-customs implementation had a positive influence on firm performance in Vietnam. Based on the results of the paper, policy-makers can devise essential solutions to enhance e-customs implementation as well as managers of firms can set-up strategies to adapt to the modernized environment.

정보기술 도입 결정기준 및 영향 요인 - 혁신특성과 핵심집단 관점 - (Decision Criteria and Affecting Factors in Information Technology Adoption - Innovation Characteristics and Critical Mass Perspective -)

  • 박정훈
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
    • /
    • 제9권4호
    • /
    • pp.125-142
    • /
    • 1999
  • The increased investment in technological innovations makes the investigation of factors affecting technology adoption more interesting. Several perspectives have been proposed to explain the determinants of information technology adoption. While the traditional innovation diffusion research streams try to explain and predict adoption behavior with the adopter's perceptions about the characteristics of the innovation itself, critical mass theorists argue that adoption behavior as a collective action is based on what their business partners are doing and whether there exists enough critical mass to justify the investment. Drawing on theses two perspectives, this study investigates the decision criteria in the adoption of information technology as innovation and factors affecting the decision criteria. The survey results reveal that the adoption behavior is affected both by innovation characteristics and by critical mass's activity. Correlation analysis, t-test, and stepwise regression models also show that as the environmental uncertainty is getting higher, adoption decision is affected more by what others are doing, and that highly competitive organizations seem to play the role of critical mass.

  • PDF

산업기술개발의 불확실성에 따른 금융지원의 역할분담에 관한 이론적 고찰 (Theoretical Background of Division of Role in Technology Financing Based on Uncertainty Implied in Industrial Technology Development)

  • 김선근
    • 기술혁신연구
    • /
    • 제5권1호
    • /
    • pp.206-222
    • /
    • 1997
  • The conventional analysis with which justifies government intervention of the private sector's innovation activities is the market failure approach. According to such analysis, fund allocation through autonomous market mechanisms is not optimal in technology financing because of the disparity between the desirable level of investment for society as a whole and that for private firms. To optimize the fund allocation, public policies such as subsidy, preferencial loan and venture capital investment programs are designed for technology development projects performed by private firms. They, however, have not been effective in increasing private investment for such projects. In most cases, it was found that little considerations given to the relationship between uncertainty embodied in technology development projects and each types of financing. With respect to optimizing fund allocation, technology development projects should be financed by different means according to their probability of success and the expected value of technology. Employing various theoretical models on financing decision-making we verify here that technology development projects to be supported by commercial banks or venture capital institutions is limited contingent upon levels of uncertainty adn expected value. Under the assumption that financial institutions are risk averse, loan or investment can be available only if the probability of success of the project is higher than the probability premium and the current market rate of interest. Therefore, the projects that have lower probability of success and/or small expected return are excluded from commercial loan or investment programs. However, the remaining projects, whose probability of success is low but with high expected return, may be applied under government subsidy programs. To achieve optimality of fund allocation and to activate technology financing, we conclude that there should be a systematic division of role among financial institutions including government commercial banks, and venture capital institutions.

  • PDF

Balancing the nuclear equation: Climate policy uncertainty and budgetary dynamics

  • Chang Li;Sajid Ali;Raima Nazar;Muhammad Saeed Meo
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
    • /
    • 제56권7호
    • /
    • pp.2850-2858
    • /
    • 2024
  • Amidst the uncertainties of climate policy, investing in nuclear energy technology emerges as a sustainable strategy, fostering innovation in a critical sector, while simultaneously addressing urgent environmental concerns and managing budgetary dynamics. Our investigation inspects the asymmetric influence of climate policy uncertainty on nuclear energy technology in the top 10 nations with the highest nuclear energy R&D budgets (Germany, Japan, China, France, USA, UK, India, South Korea, Russia, and Canada). Previous studies adopted panel data methods to evaluate the linkage between climate policy uncertainty and nuclear energy technology. Nonetheless, these investigations overlooked the variability in this association across various countries. Conversely, this investigation introduces an innovative tool, 'Quantile-on-Quantile' to probe this connection merely for every economy. This methodology concedes for a more accurate evaluation, offering a holistic global perspective and delivering tailored insights for individual countries. The findings uncover that climate policy uncertainty significantly reduces nuclear energy technology budgets across multiple quantiles in most selected economies. Additionally, our results highlight the asymmetries in the correlations between our variables across the nations. These findings stress the need for policymakers to conduct thorough assessments and skillfully manage climate policy uncertainty and nuclear energy budgets.

중·고령자의 기술수용도(Technology Acceptance) 영향요인 분석 : 최신기술 핀테크(Fintech)를 중심으로 (An Analysis of the Factors Affecting Technology Acceptance : Focusing on fintech in high-end technology)

  • 엄사랑;신혜리;김영선
    • 디지털융복합연구
    • /
    • 제18권2호
    • /
    • pp.57-71
    • /
    • 2020
  • 본 연구는 Davis의 기술수용모델(TAM)을 확장하여 유용성 및 편리성과 접근성, 가격, 혁신성, 불확실성이 중·고령자의 핀테크 사용의도에 미치는 요인을 규명하고자 한다. 이를 위해 서울과 경기권에 거주하는 만 55세 이상의 중·고령자 457명을 대상으로 수집한, 2017년 한국 고령자 운전 및 이동 실태조사 자료를 활용하였다. 이후 구조방정식을 통해 중·고령자의 핀테크 기술수용요인을 검증하였다. 연구결과, 중·고령자의 핀테크 기술수용요인은 유용성, 편리성, 혁신성, 불확실성인 것으로 확인하였다. 즉, 중·고령자의 핀테크에 대한 유용성 및 편리성이 높아짐에 따라 핀테크 사용의도가 높아질 뿐 아니라, 혁신성이 높을수록, 불확실성이 낮을수록 핀테크 사용의도를 높이는 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 본 연구는 고령친화금융산업의 대표적인 기술인 핀테크에 대하여, 기술수용모델에서 주류로서 다루지 않았던 중·고령자를 대상으로 일반적인 기술수용모델 확장하여 기술수용요인을 규명하였다는 함의를 가진다.

R&D혁신 성과 관리를 위한 IT 요인 중요도 분석 (On the Study of IT Factor Analysis for R&D Innovation Management)

  • 최년식;최경현
    • 산업경영시스템학회지
    • /
    • 제33권3호
    • /
    • pp.123-129
    • /
    • 2010
  • R&D innovation is based on the premises of gaining competitive advantage. Innovation is achieved not only through the development of technology for producing newer and better products, but also gaining and sharing information about consumer demands, changes in the market, and competitors actions. Investment in R&D can not adequately be fulfilled solely through market functions because of R&D activities imply high-risk, uncertainty, and because R&D has a public-good characteristic. Most past researches have concentrated on managerial methodologies through research of performance, thus the results are related to studies of innovation performance. This research looks into the effect given on R&D innovation by IT factors and provides a model, and further analysis on how IT factors are applied through this model. By developing a model through the process of re-structuring the model with variables based on the convergent and discriminant validity, and in turn confirming and concentrating on major IT factors through analysis, it will be possible to double the R&D Innovation Performance.