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Korean Meteorological Society (한국기상학회)
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Uncertainty Analysis of Quantitative Radar Rainfall Estimation Using the Maximum Entropy

Maximum Entropy를 이용한 정량적 레이더 강우추정 불확실성 분석

  • Lee, Jae-Kyoung (Daejin University, Innovation Center of Engineering Education)
  • 이재경 (대진대학교 공학교육혁신센터)
  • Received : 2015.04.21
  • Accepted : 2015.07.15
  • Published : 2015.09.30
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Abstract

Existing studies on radar rainfall uncertainties were performed to reduce the uncertainty for each stage by using bias correction during the quantitative radar rainfall estimation process. However, the studies do not provide quantitative comparison with the uncertainties for all stages. Consequently, this study proposes a suitable approach that can quantify the uncertainties at each stage of the quantitative radar rainfall estimation process. First, the new approach can present initial and final uncertainties, increasing or decreasing the uncertainty, and the uncertainty percentage at each stage. Furthermore, Maximum Entropy (ME) was applied to quantify the uncertainty in the entire process. Second, for the uncertainty quantification of radar rainfall estimation at each stage, this study used two quality control algorithms, two rainfall estimation relations, and two bias correction techniques as post-processing and progressed through all stages of the radar rainfall estimation. For the proposed approach, the final uncertainty (ME = 3.81) from the ME of the bias correction stage was the smallest while the uncertainty of the rainfall estimation stage was higher because of the use of an unsuitable relation. Additionally, the ME of the quality control was at 4.28 (112.34%), while that of the rainfall estimation was at 4.53 (118.90%), and that of the bias correction at 3.81 (100%). However, this study also determined that selecting the appropriate method for each stage would gradually reduce the uncertainty at each stage. Finally, the uncertainty due to natural variability was 93.70% of the final uncertainty. Thus, the results indicate that this new approach can contribute significantly to the field of uncertainty estimation and help with estimating more accurate radar rainfall.

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References

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