• 제목/요약/키워드: influence diagrams

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영향도를 이용한 새로운 인간신뢰도 분석방법의 개발 및 적용 (Development and An Application of A New Human Reliability Analysis using Dynamic Influences)

  • 제무성
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제13권1호
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    • pp.112-118
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    • 1998
  • Human errors performed during the operations have a dominant portion of the accidents. But the systematic human error evaluation methodology universally accepted is not developed yet. One of the difficulties in performing human reliability analysis is to evaluate the performance shaping factors which represent the characteristics and the circumstances in the discriminate manner. For assessing a specific human action more exactly, it is necessary to consider all of the PSFs at the same time which make an effect on the human action. In this paper, dynamic influence diagrams are introduced to model simultaneously their effects on the specific human action. And the human actions and their subsequent PSFs are categorized and classified as the complementary works. A new human error evaluation methodology using influence diagrams is developed. This methodology involves the categorization of PSFs and the PSFs quantification. The applied analysis results for the example task are shown for representative purposes. It is shown that this approach is very flexible in that it can be applied to any kind of actions.

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중대사고관리전략의 평가를 위한 의사결정수목과 영향도에 관한 연구 (On the Tools of Decision Trees and Influence Diagrams for Assessing Severe Accident Management Strategies)

  • Moosung Jae;Park, Chang-Kue
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제26권2호
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    • pp.168-178
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    • 1994
  • 사고관리란 사고발생시에 이용가능한 모든 자원, 즉 인원과 설비를 효율적으로 활용함으로써 발전소를 안전상태로 회복시키거나 사고의 피해를 완화시키기 위한 제반 활동을 말한다. 사고관리의 접근방식은 첫째, 후보사고관리방안의 사전 평가, 둘째, 효과적으로 적절한 조치를 수행하게 하는 세부 절차서의 개발, 그리고 셋째, 그러한 조치수행에 필요한 도구와 자원의 준비, 실현 가능한 원전 시스템의 변경등을 포함한다. 사고관리 전략을 평가할 때에는 그 전략의 효율성분만 아니라 부작용, 타당성, 필요한 정보, 기존 절차서와의 양립성 등을 종합적으로 고려하여야 한다. 이 논문의 목적은 여러가지 사고관리 전략을 모델링하고 평가하기위한 체제를 개발하기 위한 의사결정 수목과 영향도의 해석도구를 소개하는 것이다. 이 해석도구와 관련한 여러가지 특징들이 제시되었으며 이 해석도구에 근거하여 세워진 사고관리전략의 평가체제가 간단한 예제문제에 적용되었다.

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시스템다이내믹스기법을 이용한 우리나라 양식넙치시장의 수급구조 분석 (Analyzing the Supply and Demand Structure of the Korean Flatfish Aquaculture Market : A System Dynamics Approach)

  • 박병인
    • 수산경영론집
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    • 제39권1호
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    • pp.17-42
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    • 2008
  • This study tried to build a structure model for the Korean flatfish aquaculture market by a system dynamics approach. A pool of several factors to influence the market structure was built. In addition, several reasonable factors related to the flatfish aquaculture market were selected to construct the causal loop diagram (CLD). Then the related stock/flow diagrams of the causal loop diagrams were constructed. This study had been forecasting a production price and supply, demand, and consumption volume for the flatfish market by a monthly basis, and then made some validation to the forecasting. Finally, four governmental policies such as import, storage, reduction of input, and demand control were tentatively evaluated by the created model. As a result, the facts that the demand control policy is most effective, and import and storage policies are moderately effective were found.

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매개변수 가진력을 받아 비행하는 구조물의 동적 모델링 및 안정성 해석 (Dynamic Modeling and Stability Analysis of a Flying Structure undertaking Parametric Excitation Forces)

  • 현상학;유홍희
    • 소음진동
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    • 제9권6호
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    • pp.1157-1165
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    • 1999
  • Dynamic stability of a flying structure undertaking constnat and pulsating thrust force is investigated in this paper. The equations of motion of the structure, which is idealized as a free-free beam, are derived by using the hybrid variable method and the assumed mode method. The structural system includes a directional control unit to obtain the directional stability. Unstable regions due to periodically pulsating thrust forces are obtained by using the Floquet's theory. Stability diagrams are presented to illustrate the influence of the constant force, the location of gimbal, and the frequency of pulsating force. The validity of the diagrams are confirmed by direct numerical simulations of the dynamic system.

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Evaluation of static response in stress-ribbon concrete pedestrian bridges

  • Stavridis, Leonidas T.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제34권2호
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    • pp.213-229
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    • 2010
  • An analytical method is proposed for the evaluation of the static response of a prestresse-dribbon concrete pedestrian bridge, which may also be applied for the roofing of large areas. On the basis of an established analogy with a suspension bridge system, a procedure is presented for the prestresse-dribbon direct analysis, leading to the introduction of two dimensionless parameters as governing factors of the design, namely the thinness and the prestressing steel ratio. The exposed procedure, applied by a simple computer program, allows a quick evaluation of the response and permits the investigation of the influence of the aforementioned parameters on it, by means of comprehensive diagrams. The presented diagrams may be directly used for the preliminary design of a pedestrian bridge of this type, for the whole practical range of span lengths. A design example is also included, showing the applicability of the proposed procedure.

Nonlinear analysis of the influence of increments amounts and history load on soil response

  • Ivandic, Kreso;Soldo, Bozo
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제33권1호
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    • pp.67-77
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    • 2009
  • The soil response calculation is described, by which, threw the fictive path of stress, the stress-deformation diagrams are determined, considering the nonlinear soil behavior. The calculation are lead incrementally, by which is shown that in the presented soil model (modified Cam Clay), considering the influence of overconsolidated soil pressure OCR, the number of calculation steps may, but not necessarily, have a sufficient influence on the value of failure load and definite soil deformation. The simplicity and the practicalness of the procedure, the enables modeling the complex relations in soil.

현장진단 전문가 시스템의 개발 : 휴리스틱과 인플루언스 다이아그램 (Development of On-Line Diagnostic Expert System : Heuristics and Influence Diagrams)

  • 김영진
    • 대한산업공학회지
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    • 제23권1호
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    • pp.95-113
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    • 1997
  • This paper outlines a framework for a diagnosis of a complex system with uncertain information. Sensor validation ploys a vital role in the ability of the overall system to correctly determine the state of a system monitored by imperfect sensors. Here, emphases are put on the heuristic technology and post-processor for reasoning. Heuristic Sensor Validation (HSV) exploits deeper knowledge about parameter interaction within the plant to cull sensor faults from the data stream. Finally the modified probability distributions and validated data are used as input to the reasoning scheme which is the runtime version of the influence diagram. The output of the influence diagram is a diagnostic mapping from the symptoms or sensor readings to a determination of likely failure modes. Once likely failure modes are identified, a detailed diagnostic knowledge base suggests corrective actions to improve performance. This framework for a diagnostic expert system with sensor validation and reasoning under uncertainty applies in $HEATXPRT^{TM}$ a data-driven on-line expert system for diagnosing heat rate degradation problems in fossil power plants [1].

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Expanding the classic moment-curvature relation by a new perspective onto its axial strain

  • Petschke, T.;Corres, H.;Ezeberry, J.I.;Perez, A.;Recupero, A.
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • 제11권6호
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    • pp.515-529
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    • 2013
  • The moment-curvature relation for simple bending is a well-studied subject and the classical moment-curvature diagram is commonly found in literature. The influence of axial forces has generally been considered as compression onto symmetrically reinforced cross-sections, thus strain at the reference fiber never has been an issue. However, when dealing with integral structures, which are usually statically indeterminate in different degrees, these concepts are not sufficient. Their horizontal elements are often completely restrained, which, under imposed deformations, leads to moderate compressive or tensile axial forces. The authors propose to analyze conventional beam cross-sections with moment-curvature diagrams considering asymmetrically reinforced cross-sections under combined influence of bending and moderate axial force. In addition a new diagram is introduced that expands the common moment-curvature relation onto the strain variation at the reference fiber. A parametric study presented in this article reveals the significant influence of selected cross-section parameters.

수정변형률 영향계수에 근거한 직사각형 및 복합 얕은기초 침하량 산정법 (Improved Strain Influence Diagram and Settlement Estimation for Rectangular and Multiple Footings in Sand)

  • 박동규;이준환
    • 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국지반공학회 2005년도 춘계 학술발표회 논문집
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    • pp.633-640
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    • 2005
  • Most existing methods for the footing settlement estimation are for either isolated or strip footings. No sufficient details are available for settlement calculation of footings with different shapes and multiple footing conditions, which are commonly adopted in actual construction projects. In this paper, estimation of footing settlements for various footing conditions of different shapes and multiple conditions is investigated based on Schmertmann's method with focus on values of the strain influence factor $I_z$. In order to examine the effect of multiple footing conditions, field plate load tests are performed in sands using single and double plates. 3D non-linear finite element analyses are also performed for various footing conditions with different footing shape and distance ratios. Results obtained in this study indicate that there are two significant components in the strain influence diagram that need to be taken into account for settlement estimation of rectangular and multiple footings: depth of $I_{zp}$ and depth of strain influence zone. Based on results from experimental and 3D non-linear finite element analyses, improved strain influence diagrams available for various footing conditions are proposed.

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