• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제47권2호
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• pp.135-143
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• 2014

본 연구에서는 기후변화에 따른 충주댐 유입량을 모의하였으며 이때 발생되는 불확실성을 분석하였다. GCM별 불확실성을 고려하기 위해 IPCC AR4 A2 시나리오에 의한 4개의 GCM 강수량 결과를 추계학적 모형인 TFN 모형에 적용하였다. TFN 모형의 불확실성을 고려하기 위하여 정규분포를 따르는 100개의 잡음항을 생성하여 앙상블 유입량 시나리오를 생성하였고, 결과적으로 400개의 미래유입량 시나리오를 제시하였다. 분석결과 과거 30년과 비교하여 미래에는 다른 변화율을 보였으며, 모든 시나리오에서 전 기간에 걸쳐 연 유입량 증가 양상을 보였고 여름철의 유입량 증가, 봄철의 유입량 감소가 전망되었다.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제59권6호
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• pp.9-18
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• 2017

The objective of this study was to estimate the climate change impact on inflow to Namgang Dam using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated using observed flow data from 2003 to 2014 for the study watershed. The $R^2$ (Determination Coefficient), RMSE (Root Mean Square Error), NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient), and RMAE (Relative Mean Absolute Error) were used to evaluate the model performance. Calibration results showed that the annual mean inflow were within ${\pm}5%$ error compared to the observed. $R^2$ were ranged 0.61~0.87, RMSE were 1.37~7.00 mm/day, NSE were 0.47~0.83, and RMAE were 0.25~0.73 mm/day for daily runoff, respectively. Climate change scenarios were obtained from the HadGEM3-RA. The quantile mapping method was adopted to correct bias that is inherent in the climate change scenarios. Based on the climate change scenarios, calibrated SWAT model simulates the future inflow and evapotranspiration for the study watershed. The expected future inflow to Namgang dam using RCP 4.5 is increasing by 4.8 % and RCP 8.5 is increasing by 19.0 %, respectively. The expected future evapotranspiration for Namgang dam watershed using RCP 4.5 is decreasing by 6.7 % and RCP 8.5 is decreasing by 0.7 %, respectively.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제55권7호
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• pp.495-504
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• 2022

최근 인공지능의 발전으로 시계열 자료 분석에 효과적인 Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) 모델이 댐유입량 예측의 정확도를 높이는 데 활용되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 그 중 LSTM의 성능을 더욱 향상할 수 있는 Sequence-to-Sequence (s2s) 구조에 Attention 기법을 LSTM 모델에 첨가하여 소양강댐 유역의 유입량을 예측하였다. 분석 데이터는 2013년부터 2020년까지의 유입량 시자료와 종관기상관측기온 및 강수량 자료를 학습, 검증, 평가로 나누어 훈련한 후, 모델의 성능 평가를 진행하였다. 분석 결과, LSTM-s2s 모델보다 attention까지 첨가한 모델이 일반적으로 더 좋은 성능을 보였으며, attention 첨가 모델이 첨두값도 더 잘 예측하는 모습을 보였다. 그리고 두 모델 모두 첨두값 발생 동안 유량 패턴을 잘 반영하였지만 세밀한 시간 단위 변화량에는 어려움이 있었다. 이를 통해 시간 단위 예측의 어려움에도 불구하고, LSTM-s2s에 attention까지 첨가한 모델이 기존 LSTM-s2s의 예측 성능을 향상할 수 있음을 알 수 있었다.

• 신재생에너지
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• 제5권4호
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• pp.39-43
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• 2009

The variation of inflow at stream and hydrologic performance for small scale hydro power(SSHP) plants due to climate change have been studied. The model, which can predict flow duration characteristic of stream, was developed to analyze the variation of inflow caused from rainfall condition. And another model to predict hydrologic performance for SSHP plants is established. Monthly inflow data measured at Andong dam for 32 years were analyzed. The existing SSHP plant located in upstream of Andong dam was selected and analyzed hydrologic performance characteristics. The predicted results from the developed models show that the data were in good agreement with measured results of long term inflow at Andong dam and the existing SSHP plant. Inflow and ideal hydro power potential had increased greatly in recent years, however, these did not lead annual energy production increment of existing SSHP plant. As a results, it was found that the models represented in this study can be used to predict the primary design specifications and inflow of SSHP plants effectively.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제61권2호
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• pp.63-74
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• 2019

The objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of rainfall observation network on daily dam inflow using artificial neural networks(ANNs). Chungju Dam and Soyangriver Dam were selected for the study watershed. Rainfall and dam inflow data were collected as input data for construction of ANNs models. Five ANNs models, represented by Model 1 (In watershed, point rainfall), Model 2 (All in the Thiessen network, point rainfall), Model 3 (Out of watershed in the Thiessen network, point rainfall), Model 1-T (In watershed, area mean rainfall), Model 2-T (All in the Thiessen network, area mean rainfall), were adopted to evaluate the influence of rainfall observation network. As a result of the study, the models that used all station in the Thiessen network performed better than the models that used station only in the watershed or out of the watershed. The models that used point rainfall data performed better than the models that used area mean rainfall. Model 2 achieved the highest level of performance. The model performance for the ANNs model 2 in Chungju dam resulted in the $R^2$ value of 0.94, NSE of 0.94 $NSE_{ln}$ of 0.88 and PBIAS of -0.04 respectively. The model-2 predictions of Soyangriver Dam with the $R^2$ and NSE values greater than 0.94 were reasonably well agreed with the observations. The results of this study are expected to be used as a reference for rainfall data utilization in forecasting dam inflow using artificial neural networks.

• 한국물환경학회지
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• 제23권5호
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• pp.748-755
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• 2007

To develop an efficient pump operating rule for a retard basin, it is necessary to estimate inflow to the retard basin accurately which is affected by the backwater effect at the outlet of the conduit. The magnitude of the backwater effect is dependent on the water depth of a retard basin; however, the depth is determined by the amount of inflow and outflow. Thus, a real time simulation system that is able to simulate urban runoff and the pump operation with the consideration of the backwater effect is required to estimate the actual inflow to a retard basin. With this system, the efficient pump operating rule can be developed to diminish the possible flood damage on urban areas. In this study, a realtime simulation system is developed using the SWMM 5.0 DLL and Visual Basic 6.0 equipped with EXCEL to estimate inflow considering the backwater effect. The realtime simulation can be done by updating realtime input data such as minutely observed rainfall and the depth of a retard basin. Using those updated input data, the model estimates actual inflow, the amount of outflow discharged by pumps and gates, the depth of each junction, and flow rate at a sewer pipe on realtime basis. The developed model was applied to the Joonggok retard basin and demonstrated that it can be used to design a sewer system and to estimate actual inflow through the inlet sewer to reduce the inundation risk. As results, we find that the model can contribute to establish better operating practices for the pumps and the flood drainage system.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제36권4호
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• pp.547-559
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• 2003

본 연구에서는 체계적이고 효율적인 하수관거 정비 계획 수립을 위하여 하수관거의 경제적 가치와 불명수 발생량 및 예산 제약 등을 고려한 최적화 모형을 개발 하였다. 하수관거의 최적 정비 계획 모형은 비용 및 환경오염을 일으키는 불명수 발생 사이의 상관관계를 적절히 판단하여 최적의 경제적 사용연수를 결정하여야 하며, 예산 제약 및 각 하수관거와 배수구역의 비용 대비 효과 등을 고려하여 최적의 정비 시점 및 방법을 결정하여야 한다. 이를 위하여 본 연구에서는 관거의 잔존 수명을 상태 노드로 표현하고, 정비에 따른 잔존 수명의 변화를 아크로 표현한 최소비용 네트워크 흐름 최적화(Network Flow Optimization)모형을 구성하였으며, 이를 기초로 예산 제약 및 하수관거 시스템의 정비 특성을 고려한 제약식을 추가한 다중 목적 혼합 정수계획법(Multiple Objective Mixed Integer Programming, MOMIP)을 수립하였다. 이때 모형의 목적식은 비용 최소화 목적과 함께 불명수 발생량 최소화 목적을 추가하여, 의사결정자에게 비용과 불명수 발생량 사이의 영향 관계를 보여줌으로써 적절한 하수관거 정비 계획을 선택할 수 있도록 하였다.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제35권6호
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• pp.787-796
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• 2002

자연하천의 부정류 홍수예측을 위하여 Preissmann기법에 의한 수리학적 홍수추적을 실시하였으며, 민감도 분석을 위한 상류단과 측방유입수문곡선으로서 Log-Pearson Type-III를 사용하였다. 실제하천 적용에 있어서 유역에 대해서는 선형저수지 모형을 적용하고 하도망에 대해서는 수리학적 홍수추적을 실시하였다. 상류단과 측방유입수문곡선은 선형저수지 모형을 이용하여 산정하였으며, 하류단 경계조건으로서 Manning공식을 이용하였다. 유입수문곡선으로서 선형저수지모형이 적용된 부정류모형을 보청천유역에 적용시킨 결과 실측치와 매우 근접한 수문곡선을 예측할 수 있었으며, 본 연구는 측방유입이 있는 경우, 선형저수지 모형을 이용한 수리학적 홍수예측이 가능하고, 부정류모형을 이용하여 흐름계산을 할 경우 조도계수 산정을 위한 수단이 될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• 한국농공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국농공학회 1999년도 Proceedings of the 1999 Annual Conference The Korean Society of Agricutural Engineers
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• pp.512-518
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• 1999

Recently rainfall and water evel are monitored via on -line system in real-time bases. We applied the on-line system to get the rainfall and waterlevel data for the development of the real-time flood forecasting model based on SCS method in hourly bases. Main parameters for the model calibration are concentration time of flood and soil moisture condition in the watershed. Other parameters of the model are based on SCS TR-%% and DAWAST model. Simplex method is used for promoting the accuracy of parameter estimation. The basic concept of the model is minimizing the error range between forcasted flood inflow and actual flood inflow, and accurately forecasting the flood discharge some hours in advance depending on the concentration time. The flood forecasting model developed was applied to the Yedang and Topjung reservoir.

• 한국수산과학회지
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• 제30권6호
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• pp.1033-1043
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• 1997

In order to understand the generation mechanism of the Ulleung Eddy, we carried out a series of numerical experiments using the nonlinear 11/2 - layer model allowing the inflow of the Tsushima Current. According to our numerical results, the Ulleung Eddy was generated due to the inflow variations of the Tsushima Current. Its inflow through the Korea Strait was deflected to the east due to the Coriolis force and the nonlinear self advection. Thus, an anticyclonic motion was formed at the north of the Korea Strait. The inflow became a coastal boundary current, and finally flowed out model ocean through the eastern exit. When the speed of inflow decreased slowly, the eddy- like motion at the north of the Korea Strait changed into an enclosed anticyclonic eddy of about 200 km in diameter. The Ulleung Eddy became circular shape due to the nonlinear self advection, then changed into elliptical shape in meridional direction because of the blocking effect of the western boundary.