• Title/Summary/Keyword: import-export container cargo

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Forecasting Export & Import Container Cargoes using a Decision Tree Analysis (의사결정나무분석을 이용한 컨테이너 수출입 물동량 예측)

  • Son, Yongjung;Kim, Hyunduk
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.193-207
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    • 2012
  • The of purpose of this study is to predict export and import container volumes using a Decision Tree analysis. Factors which can influence the volume of container cargo are selected as independent variables; producer price index, consumer price index, index of export volume, index of import volume, index of industrial production, and exchange rate(won/dollar). The period of analysis is from january 2002 to December 2011 and monthly data are used. In this study, CRT(Classification and Regression Trees) algorithm is used. The main findings are summarized as followings. First, when index of export volume is larger than 152.35, monthly export volume is predicted with 858,19TEU. However, when index of export volume is between 115.90 and 152.35, monthly export volume is predicted with 716,582TEU. Second, when index of import volume is larger than 134.60, monthly import volume is predicted with 869,227TEU. However, when index of export volume is between 116.20 and 134.60, monthly import volume is predicted with 738,724TEU.

Study on the Forecasting and Relationship of Busan Cargo by ARIMA and VAR·VEC (ARIMA와 VAR·VEC 모형에 의한 부산항 물동량 예측과 관련성연구)

  • Lee, Sung-Yhun;Ahn, Ki-Myung
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.44 no.1
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    • pp.44-52
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    • 2020
  • More accurate forecasting of port cargo in the global long-term recession is critical for the implementation of port policy. In this study, the Busan Port container volume (export cargo and transshipment cargo) was estimated using the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and the vector error correction (VEC) model considering the causal relationship between the economic scale (GDP) of Korea, China, and the U.S. as well as ARIMA, a single volume model. The measurement data was the monthly volume of container shipments at the Busan port J anuary 2014-August 2019. According to the analysis, the time series of import and export volume was estimated by VAR because it was relatively stable, and transshipment cargo was non-stationary, but it has cointegration relationship (long-term equilibrium) with economic scale, interest rate, and economic fluctuation, so estimated by the VEC model. The estimation results show that ARIMA is superior in the stationary time-series data (local cargo) and transshipment cargo with a trend are more predictable in estimating by the multivariate model, the VEC model. Import-export cargo, in particular, is closely related to the size of our country's economy, and transshipment cargo is closely related to the size of the Chinese and American economies. It also suggests a strategy to increase transshipment cargo as the size of China's economy appears to be closer than that of the U.S.

On the Cost Analysis of Container Physical Distribution System in Pusan Port (부산항 컨테이너 물류 시스템의 비용분석에 관하여)

  • 박창호;이철영
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Navigation
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.13-24
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    • 1991
  • This paper aims to determining the optimal capacity of Pusan port in view point of Container Physical Distribution cost. It has been established a coast model of the container physical distribution system in Pusan port is composed of 4 sub-systems and in-land transport system. Cargo handling system, transfer & storage system and in-land transport system, and analyzed the cost model of the system. From this analysis, we found that the system had 7 routes including in-land transport by rail or road and coastal transport by feeder ship between Pusan port and cargo owner's door. Though railway transport cost was relatively cheap, but, it was limited to choose railway transport routes due to the introducing of transport cargo allocation practice caused by shortage of railway transport capacity. The physical distribution ost for total import & export container through Pusan port was composed of 4.47% in port entring cost, 12.98% in cargo handling cost, 7.44% in transfer & storage cost and 75.11% in in-land transport cost. Investigation in case of BCTOC verified the results as follows. 1) The optimal level of one time cargo handling was verified 236VAN (377TEU) and annual optimal handling capacity was calculated in 516, 840VAN(826, 944TEU) where berth occupancy is $\rho$=0.6 when regardless of port congestion cost, 2) The optimal level of one time cargo handling was verified 252VAN (403TEU) and annual optimal handling capacity was calculated in 502, 110VAN (803, 376TEU) where berth occupancy is $\rho$=0.58 when considering of port congestion cost.

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The Development and Prospects in Trans-Siberian Railway Transportation (TSR 수송의 여건변화 분석과 전망)

  • Hwang, Young-Jin
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.1031-1042
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    • 2011
  • The direct investment and export of Korean companies has increased to Russia. Korea and China have mostly accounted for the Russian far eastern port of import and export cargo since 2000, and the share of container volume from Vostochny port in 2009 was Korea(71%), China(26%) and Japan(3%) each countries. Like above mentioned, The development in TSR transportation has a huge significance in the position of Korea because Korea is actively utilizing TSR(Trans Siberian Railway) transportation. Therefore, this paper is to examine the development and prospects in Trans Siberian Railway transportation.

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Spatial Structure of Hinterlands and Forelands of Pusan Container Export Port: the Cases of 3 National Flag Carriers (부산 컨테이너 수출항의 배후지와 지향지의 공간구조)

  • Cho, Su-Kyung
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.247-267
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    • 1993
  • According to developing international economy since the World War II, the increase and competition of the national business is so empha-sized tht both the interest and the necessity about marine transportation playing the impor-thant role of international transportation are increased. Today, the container transportation, as called the innovation of marine transport has been prevailed since the 1970's. The purpose of this paper is to grasp the spatial structure of the hinterlands and forelands, its object is export container cargo at Pusan Export Port, as known for the transportation node of modern containerlization. In this study, for the purpose of grasping the relation between hinterlands and forelands of Korean export container cargo, first, I researched the transition of carloading about container cargo, the bistribution channel of cargo, the change of the items of container and the carlo-adings about transport route, secondly, I used the cluster analysis so as to group hinterlands according to the items of goods and forelands. The object of the analysis is container cargo of Choyang Line, Hanjin Shipping and Hyundai Merchant Marine of National Frag Carriers. The source materials used in this study are Trucking Data of Hanjin Co., Container Ren-tal Data of Samik Transport Co. and Transpor-ting Present Condition Tables of Hyundai Mer-chant Marine. 1. There are two kinds of the transport classi-fied by its form: FCL and LCL. In Pusan Con-tainer Export, a lot of textile goods, clothings and furniture, compound, electric goods, and so on are dealed with but the rate of occupation of the transport is getting lower while that of occupation of equipment, papers and agricultu-ral, mineral and livestock industry higher. 2. In 1990, the transports of container cargo in Korea consist of 7 services and round-the world lines. We can list North America lines, East-South Asian lines, Japan lines and Inter European lines, in order of the quantity of tran-sport form the largest to the smaller. We can have another list that Japan lines, North Ame-rica lines and East-South lines in order of the rate participation of national flag carriers, be-cacuse Korean foreign trade lay disproportionate emphasis on East-South Asian lines. Japan lines among them is the biggest import-export market. Since the rationlization policy of marine tran-sport in 1984, each of national flag carriers have its own lines. Hanjin Shipping predominates over North America lines, Choyang Line over New Zealand, Inter European and Austria lines and Hyundai Merchant Marine over Center-South America lines, in terms of the volume of transport. And small-to-medium sized shippers are prevailing in lines which are adjacent to Korea, Such as Japan lines and East-South Asian lines. 3. In relation to hinterlands and forelands of Choyang Line, the light industry goods, electric goods and machinary produced in Seoul and Pusan are exported to the major ports in Europe and Japan, the same produces in Suwon, Ulsan, Kumi are exported to European Ports, and those in Incheon and Kwangju Austrian and Japanese ports, and those in the rest regions to the major port in Japan. 4. In relation to hinterlands and forelands of Hanjin Shipping, the light industry goods pro-ducing in Seoul and Pusan, the electric goods and machinary in Incheon and Pyeongteck, are exported to New York and Los Angeles. Electric goods and machinary Masan, Anyang, Cheona, Cheongju and Incheon, Electric goods machinary and light industry goods in Kwangju and non mental goods in Pohang, are exported New York, Los Angeles and Oakland. 5. In relation to hinterlands and forelands of Hyundai Merchant Marine, the region of Seoul, Pusan and Incheon closely related with the main ports in U.S.A. The rest regions with Montreal. The hinterlands of export container cargo can be classified by its export items into three kinds: the large city, industrial city and the rest city. Choyang Line's forelands are European lines, Japan lines and Austria lines, and Hanjin Shipping's forelands are North America lines, and Hyundai Merchant Marine's forelands are North America lines and Japan line. 3 National flag carriers' major forelands are determined by the size of port and the shipper's convenient use of the port terminal.

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Analysis of the Customs Procedures Modification to facilitate the Movements of Goods (물류촉진형 통관제도 구축방안)

  • Baek, Seung-Rae;Yu, Song-Jin
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.32 no.8
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    • pp.659-665
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    • 2008
  • This thesis describes the key elements for efficient customs clearance system which can facilitate flow of maritime container cargo in the pier area of Busan port, on the basis of considering great changes on international trade environment, development of customs clearance system, variation of commercial container traffic, and diverse views originated from field experience in the distribution industry. To facilitate the flow of maritime containers, reform plan of bonded-transportation and import declaration is proposed to relieve the customs restriction during the days from discharging cargos to taking them into bonded warehouse. Also, various plans to strengthen maritime security, such as customs exam of high-risk export cargos in loading port, pre-declaration of transit container replacement, container tracing system, are proposed to improve Busan port's competitiveness in safety.

A Study on the Revitalization of Container Cargoes in Donghae Port Using IPA Technique (IPA기법을 활용한 동해항 컨테이너 활성화 강화 방안에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Young-il;Nam, Tae-Hyun;Ma, Hye-Min;Yeo, Gi-Tae
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.275-289
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    • 2018
  • It is necessary to develop a bridgehead port for trading with northern countries to promote trade through the East Sea because the East Sea Rim economic bloc around the Northeast Asia including South Korea, China, Russia, Japan, and North Korea has a high growth potential in the future. Therefore, this study aims to suggest a strategic direction to enhance the competitiveness of Donghae Port through reinforcement of container cargoes by conducting Importance-Performance Analysis (IPA) for stakeholders of Donghae Port. The analysis results suggest that it is necessary to improve the five evaluation factors: attractiveness of container and bulk volumes, appropriate ratio of export/import container quantities, frequency of vessel entry and diversity of sea routes, convenience of complex linked transportation, and competitiveness of cargo handling equipment. The implications of this study are as follows. First, it is necessary to continuously research the current status of container and bulk cargo volumes of the port and ways to increase the absolute cargo volume. Second, we need to consider realistic alternatives to improve the ratio of export/import container quantities. Third, in terms of network, we should establish a service improvement plan to increase the frequency of port calls and the diversity of sea routes. Furthermore, incentives should be provided to increase the trade volume of Donghae Port through strengthened complex linked transportation function. Finally, it is urgently necessary to provide investment support for container handling equipment as an essential requirement for the activation of the container cargoes in Donghae Port.

Analysis of Fleet Capacity to Enhance the Competitiveness of Container Shipping in Korea (한국 컨테이너 해운의 경쟁력 제고를 위한 선대 규모 분석)

  • Park, Sunghwa;Kim, Taeil
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.105-120
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    • 2017
  • This study analyzed changes in the competitive structure of the global shipping container market and the appropriate capacity of the container fleet in Korea from three perspectives. The competitive market analysis applied the market concentration ratio and Hirschman-Herfindahl index, while the appropriate capacity analysis was based on the following three aspects: (1) Fleet capacity to secure competitiveness in the global shipping alliance; (2) Fleet capacity to increase national fleet coverage of domestic import and export container cargo; and (3) Fleet capacity analysis through the panel model considering the characteristics of the major shipping countries. Analysis of the global shipping container market reveals an oligopoly industry, and Korea's container fleet capacity is insufficient across all three analyses.

An empirical study on yard inventory change according to containers' dwell times. This study was supported by grant of Sunchon National University, Korea

  • Kim, Chang-gon;Youn, Myoung-Kil
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.11 no.5
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    • pp.33-41
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    • 2013
  • Purpose - Yard inventories increase when export containers are carried into the terminal and decrease when import containers are delivered to the consigners. The purpose of this study is to analyze container inventories according to the weekly ship arrival pattern at container terminals. Research design, data, and methodology - As container ships operate according to weekly schedules based on shipping companies and their routes, specific terminals provide a fixed-day service in a week. Thus, yard inventories can change with weekly fluctuations. The data used in this study were the actualdata at specific container terminals. Result - The dwell times of each container at a terminal represent an important variable that affectsyard inventories. Even cargo flows are steady in a given period, if dwell times are prolonged, yard inventories increase. Conclusion - Dwell time is another factor causing yard inventory change. Therefore, the calculation for yard inventories should consider the weekly ship arrival patterns and dwell times of each container. Further, at the planning stage, dwell time should be more carefully considered to calculate yard capacity.

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China Effect and Ports Commerce Policy (중국효과와 항만통상정책)

  • Kim, Chang-Beom
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.61-81
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    • 2005
  • China has increased 10 percent every year since 1978. In particular, development and growth of Chinese ports make a remarkable in that the marine and coastal transportation handles the 90 percent of export-import cargo. This growth is beginning to threaten Korea's ports which are striving to become the hub of Northeast Asia logistics. Furthermore, the hub strategy of Northeast Asia is closely related to transshipment cargo invitation. The results of documents research indicate Busan and Gwangyang ports play an important role as an intermediate stopover between China and America. The ways to achieve transshipment cargo invitation are the construction of transshipment system based on the supply chain between korea and china, the maximization of trading volumes creation, equipment of ports infrastructure, and the constructions of the rail, road, coastal transportation infrastructures.

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