• Land and Housing Review
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.33-46
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• 2020

As the fastest growing office transaction volume in Korea, there's been a need for development of indicators to accurately diagnose the office capital market. The purpose of this paper is experimentally calculate to the office price index for effective benchmark indices in Seoul. The quantitative methodology used a Case-Shiller Repeat Sales Model (1991), based on actual multiple office transaction dataset with over minimum 1,653 ㎡ from Q3 1999 to 4Q 2019 in the case of 1,536 buildings within Seoul Metropolitan. In addition, the collected historical data and spatial statistical analysis tools were treated with the SAS 9.4 and ArcGIS 10.7 programs. The main empirical results of research are briefly summarized as follows; First, Seoul office price index was estimated to be 344.3 point (2001.1Q=100.0P) at the end of 2019, and has more than tripled over the past two decades. it means that the sales price of office per 3.3 ㎡ has consistently risen more than 12% every year since 2000, which is far above the indices for apartment housing index, announced by the MOLIT (2009). Second, between quarterly and annual office price index for the two-step estimation of the MIT Real Estate Research Center (MIT/CRE), T, L, AL variables have statistically significant coefficient (Beta) all of the mode l (p<0.01). Third, it was possible to produce a more stable office price index against the basic index by using the Moore-Penrose's pseoudo inverse technique at low transaction frequency. Fourth, as an lagging indicators, the office price index is closely related to key macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP(+), KOSPI(+), interest rates (5-year KTB, -). This facts indicate that long-term office investment tends to outperform other financial assets owing to high return and low risk pattern. In conclusion, these findings are practically meaningful to presenting an new office price index that increases accuracy and then attempting to preliminary applications for the case of Seoul. Moreover, it can provide sincerely useful benchmark about investing an office and predicting changes of the sales price among market participants (e.g. policy maker, investor, landlord, tenant, user) in the future.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.48 no.6
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• pp.879-896
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• 2013

The assessed land values and housing prices have been widely utilized as a basic information for the land and house trades and for evaluating governmental and local taxes. However, there exists a price difference in actual markets between the assessment level and assessed land values or housing prices. This paper emphasizes the spatial mismatch between the assessed land values and housing market prices and particularly addresses the following two aspects by focusing on spatial effects of the modifiable areal units, which would substantially affect the estimation of the assessed land values and housing prices. First, we examine the spatial distributions of the assessed land values and housing market prices, and the gap between those prices, on the basis of the aggregated spatial units(i.e., aggregation districts). Second, we explore the scale effect of the MAUP(modifiable areal unit problem) generally embedded in estimating the prices of the sampled standard lands and houses, and calibrating the correction index for the land values and housing prices for the individuals. For the application, we analysed the land values and housing prices in Seoul utilizing GIS and statistical software. As a result, some spatial clusters that the housing market prices are significantly higher than the assessed land values were identified at a finer geographic level. Also, it was empirically revealed that the statistical results from the regression of regional variables on the assessed land values for the individuals are significantly affected by the aggregation levels of the spatial units.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.35-44
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• 2010

Currently, the unit price of public construction projects are not being evaluated appropriately for several reasons. First, the evaluation of the unit price differ per nature of the bidding process and its estimation process. In fact, pricing is determined to meet the total price in turnkey projects and to pass the low bid price deliberation process in unit price projects, and thus, such prices cannot be said to be reasonable prices per public project. After the contract is awarded, however, the prices determined without taking into consideration the characteristic of each bidding process and price estimate process are used for the valuation of progress payment, design changes, and escalation. Furthermore, this is also being applied to other low bid deliberation process as actual public project unit price, thereby affecting other processes as well. In effect, this system increases the risks for both the owner and the bidder who have determined the unit price. This research examines the risk factor and its extent in order to properly manage it in preparation for the future.

• Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.75-92
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• 1997

This paper is concerned with an estimation of optimal investment of road sector in 1996-2005. The main method is a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model for Korea in which the optimal solution is derived in a recursively dynamic path. The model is composed of three main modules: the supply, the demand and the price. In this paper, the investment demand for the road is optimized with subject to national economic growth and price inflation. If the annual inflation level and the economic growth rate during 1996-2005 are set to 4.5%-5.0% and 6.0%-6.5% respectively, the optimal demand for the road investment is estimated as 155.1-180.1 trillion Won or 3.33%-3.89% of the GDP for ten years. It implies that the additional increase of the road investment by 0.61%-1.15% of the GDP is required for sustainable economic development, since the share of the road investment in the GDP of the latest 5 years has stayed around 2.27%. However, it is necessary to reduce construction investments on housing as well as to promote private financing of the road in order to maximize an efficiency of resource allocation.

• Land and Housing Review
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• v.6 no.3
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• pp.107-115
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• 2015

Recently one of interest concern in domestic housing market is to reduce the difference of supply and demand. Exact demand estimation by accurate demand region is a essential cue to reduce the gap. This empirical study compared the data of housing subscriber's real address with estimated demand area on household movement, which are applied by advanced studies. This empirical case data is related to 3 housing development districts in metropolitan area. As a result, This study found that the real demand area has a more widened coverage compared with those of household movement one. For to establish exact demand area, we found, more complementary considerations should be taken. Especially some factors such as distance between a project site and downtown of Seoul Metropolitan City, locational competitiveness on main demand and behind demand, and development scale are more considerable variables. In additionally, we found the demand areas are influenced by housing rental types, sizes and the real estate business trends. And also, this study found those factors should be considered with housing price and locational competitiveness.

• Korea Real Estate Review
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.41-50
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• 2017

Previous studies, especially that by Lee (2014), showed how time series volatility models can be applied to the house price series. As the regional housing market trends, however, have shown significant differences of late, analysis with national data may have limited practical implications. This study applied volatility models in analyzing and forecasting regional house prices. The estimation of the AR(1)-ARCH(1), AR(1)-GARCH(1,1), and AR(1)-EGARCH(1,1,1) models confirmed the ARCH and/or GARCH effects in the regional house price series. The RMSEs of out-of-sample forecasts were then compared to identify the best-fitting model for each region. The monthly rates of house price changes in the second half of 2017 were then presented as an example of how the results of this study can be applied in practice.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.39-51
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• 2023

This study uses the hedonic price approach to estimate the economic value of a parking lot in an apartment building. In this study, a logarithmic function was applied to estimate the price elasticity of parking spaces. Variables were composed of an independent variable (apartment house characteristics) and a dummy variable (external characteristics). Detailed variables include exclusive area, number of floors, waterproofing, number of bathrooms, and number of parking spaces per household. Based on the results of the analysis for the entire year, the increase in the number of parking spaces affects a price increase of approximately 25.97 million won to 59.68 million won, which can be interpreted as the economic value of the parking space. However, since Hanam City was specified in this study, there is a limit to generalizing the current results and using them for project evaluation.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.23 no.5
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• pp.108-116
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• 2022

Started in 1989 as Public Permanent Rental Housing scheme, public rental housing lease policy is increasing target residents and supply in each government by introducing new supply types. However, public housing business entities have difficulties in expanding the supply due to cumulated deficit. The research suggested long-term public rental housing reconstruction business as a method to preserve the cumulated deficit from the previous. Minimum floor area ratio mathematical model was suggested by defining the floor area ratio of reconstruction business as minimum, since housing sales profit after reconstruction could preserve aggregated deficit, and mathematically approached by considering the traits of long-term public rental housing reconstruction. The determinant for minimum floor area ratio mathematical model comprise cumulated deficit of the existing long-term public rental housing, land size of reconstructed sale housing, housing sales price per unit area, and business cost per unit area. Minimum floor area ratio mathematical model is expected to be the milestone for supporting decision making regarding the economic part of old long-term public lease housings' reconstruction scale, and expanding housing supply within urban area.

• Korea Real Estate Review
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.79-90
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• 2018

The purpose of this study was to estimate the pricing factors of residential lands in new cities by estimating the pricing model of residential lands. For this purpose, hedonic equations for each quantile of the conditional distribution of land prices were estimated using quantile regression methods and the sale price date of Jangyu New Town in Gimhae. In this study, a quantile regression method that models the relation between a set of explanatory variables and each quantile of land price was adopted. As a result, the differences in the effects of the characteristics by price quantile were confirmed. The number of years that elapsed after the completion of land construction is the quadratic effect in the model because its impact may give rise to a non-linear price pattern. Age appears to decrease the price until certain years after the construction, and increases the price afterward. In the estimation of the quantile regression, land age appears to have a statistically significant impact on land price at the traditional level, and the turning point appears to be shorter for the low quantiles than for the higher quantiles. The positive effects of the use of land for commercial and residential purposes were found to be the biggest. Land demand is preferred if there are more than two roads on the ground. In this case, the amount of sunshine will improve. It appears that the shape of a square wave is preferred to a free-looking land. This is because the square land is favorable for development. The variables of the land used for commercial and residential purposes have a greater impact on low-priced residential lands. This is because such lands tend to be mostly used for rental housing and have different characteristics from residential houses. Residential land prices have different characteristics depending on the price level, and it is necessary to consider this in the evaluation of the collateral value and the drafting of real estate policy.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.36 no.2
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• pp.129-140
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• 2018

In this study, we analyzed the electric vehicle (EV) purchasing behavior with market segmentation in Seoul using the binary logit model. For the model estimation, the experimental design of SP survey generated 24 scenarios with purchase price, charging station availability, and driving range of EVs. The results of market segmentation analysis indicated that the owners of subcompact and compact size cars were primarily affected by the purchasing price while those of mid and full size cars were more sensitive to the charging station availability. By housing type, the charging station availability was the most important factor for the residents of apartment while the purchase price was the most important factor to choose the EVs. These results presented that the EV supply strategy of the automobile manufacturer should be diversified according to the marketing target and the expansion of the public charging infrastructure should be the top priority in the government policy.