• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.67-80
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• 2017

Over the last few decades, ensemble forecasts based on global climate models have become an important part of climate forecast due to the ability to reduce uncertainty in prediction. Moreover in ensemble forecast, assessing the prediction uncertainty is as important as estimating the optimal weights, and this is achieved through a probabilistic forecast which is based on the predictive distribution of future climate. The Bayesian model averaging has received much attention as a tool of probabilistic forecasting due to its simplicity and superior prediction. In this paper, we propose a new Bayesian model averaging method for probabilistic ensemble forecasting. The proposed method combines a deterministic ensemble forecast based on a multivariate regression approach with Bayesian model averaging. We demonstrate that the proposed method is better in prediction than the standard Bayesian model averaging approach by analyzing monthly average precipitations and temperatures for ten cities in Korea.

• 대한전자공학회논문지SP
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• 제44권6호
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• pp.118-123
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• 2007

본 논문에서는 잡음 환경에서의 음성 향상을 위해 향상된 Global Soft Decision (GSD) 기법을 제안한다. 통계적 모델을 바탕으로 한 음성 향상과 관련한 연구에서 GSD는 음성의 꼬리 부분에서 취약하다고 알려져 있으며, 이를 개선하기 위해 Smoothed Global Likelihood Ratio (SGLR)를 바탕으로 한 새로운 음성 향상 기법을 GSD에 적용한다. 제안된 방법은 다양한 잡음 환경에서 MOS 실험을 바탕으로 기존의 연구와 비교하였으며 우수한 성능을 보여주었다.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• 제34권4호
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• pp.431-444
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• 2012

We simulated and compared present and future ocean circulation in the East China Sea using an East Asia Regional Ocean model. Mean climate states for 1990~1999 and 2030~2039 were used as surface conditions for simulations of present and future ocean circulation, which were derived from the simulations of three different global climate models, ECHAM5-MPI, GFDL-CM2.0 and MIROC3.2_hires, for the 20th century and those of 21st century as projected by the IPCC SRES A1B. East Asia Regional Ocean model simulated the detailed patterns of temperature, salinity and current fields under present and future climate conditions and their changes instead of the simple structures of global climate models. To some extent, there are consistent ocean circulation changes derived from the three pairs corresponding to the global climate model in so much as the temperature increases not only in winter but summer at both the surface and bottom and that temperature and salinity changes are prominent near the Chinese coast and in the Changjiang bank. However, the simulated circulations are different among each other depending on the prescribed atmospheric conditions not only under present climate but also with regard to future climate conditions. There is not a coincident tendency in ocean circulation changes between present and future simulations derived from the three pairs. This suggests that more simulations with different pairs are needed.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
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• 제29권5호
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• pp.754-761
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• 2005

The 40\% of wall thickness criterion which has been used as a plugging rule of steam generator tubes is applicable only to a single cracked tube. In the previous studies performed by authors, several global failure prediction models were introduced to estimate the failure loads of steam generator tubes containing two adjacent parallel axial through-wall cracks. These models were applied for thin plates with two parallel cracks and the COD base model was selected as the optimum one. The objective of this study is to verify the applicability of the proposed optimum global failure prediction model for real steam generator tubes with two parallel axial through-wall cracks. For the sake of this, a series of plastic collapse tests and finite element analyses have been carried out fur the steam generator tubes with two machined parallel axial through-wall cracks. Thereby, it was proven that the proposed optimum failure prediction model can be used as the best one to estimate the failure load quite well. Also, interaction effects between two adjacent cracks were assessed through additional finite element analyses to investigate the effect on the global failure behavior.

• 한국측량학회지
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• 제15권1호
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• pp.51-61
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• 1997

전지구 해양의 조석 분포를 파악하기 위해 $1/3^\circ$의 분해능을 갖는 2차원 수치모형을 수립하여 반일분조$(M_2,\;S_2,\;K_2,\;N_2)$ 및 일분조$(K_1,\;O_1,\;P_1,\;Q_1)$의 조석도를 작성하였다. 수립된 $1/3^\circ$ 수치모형은 기존 수치모형에서 낮은 분해능으로 인하여 평가하지 못하였던 천해역 및 육붕해에서의 조석현상을 평가하는데 적용되었다 작성된 조석도는 기존의 수치모형 및 위성 고도계 자료로부터 작성된 조석도와 또, 심해의 일부 지역에서 관측된 조화상수와 상호 비교하였다. 세격자망에 의해 계산된 전지구 해양의 조석도는 위성을 통해 관측된 순간 해면 자료로부터 조석성분을 제거하여 시간에 따라 변화하지 않는 해면변위를 산정하는데 있어 유용한 자료로 이용될 수 있다.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제51권3호
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• pp.273-280
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• 2018

수문순환에서 증발산의 정확한 산정은 수문분석 및 이해에 있어서 매우 중요하다. 특히, 증발산을 산정하는 방법은 다양하며, 각각 방법 마다 장단점을 가지고 있다. 그렇기 때문에, 각 다른 방법으로 산전된 결과를 융합하여 최적의 증발산을 산출해야할 필요가 있다. 본 연구에서는 대표적으로 인공위성 기반의 증발산 모델인 revised RS-PM과 MS-PT 방법에서 산출된 증발산과 모델 자료인 Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS)와 Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM)자료들을 융합함으로써 최적의 증발산을 산출하고자 하였다. 연구 지역인 청미천과 설마천에서의 플럭스 타워에서 융합된 증발산에 대해서 검증을 실시하였다. 통계학적인 결과(상관계수, 일치도, MAE, RMSE)를 확인하였을 때, 기존의 인공위성과 모델에서 산출되는 증발산 결과에 비해 향상되는 결괄르 나타내었다. 전반적으로 결과를 확인하였을 때, 융합된 자료가 보다 향상된 결과를 보일 수 있을 것이라는 것을 나타내었으며, 추후에는 더 많은 모델을 사용하여 융합함으로써 보다 정확한 결과를 산출 할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• 제15권3호
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• pp.683-698
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• 2015

Railroad bridges form an integral part of railway infrastructure throughout the world. To accommodate increased axel loads, train speeds, and greater volumes of freight traffic, in the presence of changing structural conditions, the load carrying capacity and serviceability of existing bridges must be assessed. One way is through system identification of in-service railroad bridges. To dates, numerous researchers have reported system identification studies with a large portion of their applications being highway bridges. Moreover, most of those models are calibrated at global level, while only a few studies applications have used globally and locally calibrated model. To reach the global and local calibration, both ambient vibration tests and controlled tests need to be performed. Thus, an approach for system identification of a railroad bridge that can be used to assess the bridge in global and local sense is needed. This study presents system identification of a railroad bridge using free vibration data. Wireless smart sensors are employed and provided a portable way to collect data that is then used to determine bridge frequencies and mode shapes. Subsequently, a calibrated finite element model of the bridge provides global and local information of the bridge. The ability of the model to simulate local responses is validated by comparing predicted and measured strain in one of the diagonal members of the truss. This research demonstrates the potential of using measured field data to perform model calibration in a simple and practical manner that will lead to better understanding the state of railroad bridges.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제66권5호
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• pp.1-13
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• 2024

In this study, we applied an on-site diagnostic method for estimating the structural safety of a plastic greenhouse. A three-dimensional light detection and ranging (3D LiDAR) sensor was used to scan the greenhouse to extract point cloud data (PCD). Differential thresholds of the color index were applied to the partitions of raw PCD to separate steel frames from plastic films. Additionally, the K-means algorithm was used to convert the steel frame PCD into the nodes of unit members. These nodes were subsequently transformed into structural shape data. To verify greenhouse shape reproducibility, the member lengths of the scan and blueprint models were compared with the measurements along the X-, Y-, and Z-axes. The error of the scan model was accurate at 2%-3%, whereas the error of the blueprint model was 5.4%. At a maximum snow depth of 0.5 m, the scan model revealed asymmetric horizontal deflection and extreme bending stress, which indicated that even minor shape irregularities could result in critical failures in extreme weather. The safety factor for bending stress in the scan model was 18.7% lower than that in the blueprint model. This phenomenon indicated that precise shape estimation is crucial for safety diagnostic. Future studies should focus on the development of an automated process based on supervised learning to ensure the widespread adoption of greenhouse safety diagnostics.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제15권9호
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• pp.5769-5775
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• 2014

본 연구에서는 온라인 게임의 구조 분석을 통하여 한국의 온라인 게임 기업이 글로벌 시장에 진출하는 과정에 필요한 효율성 높은 정책적 지원 플랫폼 및 성과 평가 모델을 발굴한다. 온라인 게임 기업의 해외 지원을 위해 다양한 방법으로 정부의 정책 및 게임 회사의 노력이 시도되었으나 온라인 게임이라는 콘텐츠만이 갖는 고유한 특성과 환경으로 인해 온라인 게임의 글로벌 지원에 특화된 성공적인 비즈니스 모델을 갖지 못하고 있었다. 그동안 국내 온라인 게임 지원 정책은 글로벌 서비스 플랫폼(Global Service Platfotm: GSP) 지원 사업과 국제게임대회, 현지화, 홍보 등 다양한 사업을 중심으로 국산 온라인 게임업체를 지원하고 국내 온라인 게임에 대한 해외 경쟁력을 높이려고 해왔다. 하지만 그 투자와 노력에 비해 GSP 등 일부 사업을 제외하고는 좋은 결실을 맺지 못하였다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 2004년 이후 10년간 추진 중인, 온라인게임 육성의 유일한 성공 정책이라 할 수 있는 GSP 사업 모델에 대한 다각적 접근 방법과 참여 업계의 설문 분석을 통해 정책 수행 결과에 대한 효과를 검증하고 시사점을 도출하였다. GSP의 성과 평가를 위해 새로운 정책 지원 및 평가 모델인 글로벌 온라인 게임 지원 모델(Global online game Supporting Chain Model: GoGSCM)을 제시하였으며, 적합성, 효율성, 효과성, 지속성의 4가지 측면에서 GSP 모델을 평가, 검증하였다.

• 대기
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• 제21권2호
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• pp.197-208
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• 2011

The objective of this study is to describe the short-range forecast system of the Korea Air Force (KAF) and to verificate its performace in 2009 summer. The KAF weather prediction model system, based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (i.e., the KAF-WRF), is configured with a parent domain overs East Asia and two nested domains with the finest horizontal grid size of 2 km. Each domain covers the Korean peninsula and South Korea, respectively. The model is integrated for 84 hour 4 times a day with the initial and boundary conditions from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) data. A quantitative verification system is constructed for the East Asia and Korean peninsula domains. Verification variables for the East Asia domain are 500 hPa temperature, wind and geopotential height fields, and the skill score is calculated using the difference between the analysis data from the NCEP GFS model and the forecast data of the KAF-WRF model results. Accuracy of precipitation for the Korean penisula domain is examined using the contingency table that is made of the KAF-WRF model results and the KMA (Korea Meteorological Administraion) AWS (Automatic Weather Station) data. Using the verification system, the operational model and parallel model with updated version of the WRF model and improved physics process are quantitatively evaluated for the 2009 summer. Over the East Aisa region, the parallel experimental model shows the better performance than the operation model. Errors of the experimental model in 500 hPa geopotential height near the Tibetan plateau are smaller than errors in the operational model. Over the Korean peninsula, verification of precipitation prediction skills shows that the performance of the operational model is better than that of the experimental one in simulating light precipitation. However, performance of experimental one is generally better than that of operational one, in prediction.