• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.47-56
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• 2020

Decline of pine forests happens in Korea due to various disturbances such as insect pests, forest fires and extreme climate, which may further continue with ongoing climate change. For conserving and reestablishing pine forests, understanding climate-induced future shifts of pine tree distribution is a critical concern. This study predicts future geographical distribution of Pinus densiflora, using Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt). Input data of the model are locations of pine tree stands and their environmental variables such as climate were prepared for the model inputs. Alternative future projections for P. densiflora distribution were conducted with RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios. As results, the future distribution of P. densiflora steadily decreased under both scenarios. In the case of RCP 8.5, the areal reductions amounted to 11.1% and 18.7% in 2050s and 2070s, respectively. In 2070s, P. densiflora mainly remained in Kangwon and Gyeongsang Provinces. Changes in temperature seasonality and warming winter temperature contributed primarily for the decline of P. densiflora., in which altitude also exerted a critical role in determining its future distribution geographic vulnerability. The results of this study highlighted the temporal and spatial contexts of P. densiflora decline in Korea that provides useful ecological information for developing sound management practices of pine forests.

• Atmosphere
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.367-375
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• 2013

We present here the future changes in vertical distribution of temperature and tropopause height using the HadGEM2-AO climate model forced with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. Projected changes during the 21st century are shown as differences from the baseline period (1971~2000) for global vertical distribution of temperature and tropopause height. All RCP scenarios show warming throughout the troposphere and cooling in the stratosphere with amplified warming over the lower troposphere in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. Upper troposphere warming reaches a maximum in the tropics at the 300 hPa level associated with lapse-rate feedback. Also, the cooling in the stratosphere and the warming in the troposphere raises the height of the tropopause.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.10 no.9
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• pp.31-36
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• 2012

Purpose - This study aimed to explore and examine the government policies and supporting systems of the traditional market in Korea. Research design / data / methodology - Recognizing these problems, the Korean government enacted three special legislations and adopted six support policies in support of the traditional markets. Results - Those markets with modernized stores, parking lots, and arcades have certainly increased sales and the number of customers. However, this uniform modernization support policy was short of supporting strategies that could have developed characteristics and advantages of each market, so many markets and merchants lost self-sustainable ability and ended up with relying on government support. Conclusions - The study indicates that Small & Medium Business Administration's role in implementing government policies including selection of the markets that needed to be modernized, developing commercial areas in connection with traditional market and neighboring shopping streets, customizing and improving distribution system, developing specialty stores, merchant college, merchants' self-sustainable ability, and creating convenient and safe shopping environment is vital to traditional markets' future success.

• Proceedings of the Korean DIstribution Association Conference
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• 2003.02a
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• pp.109-120
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• 2003

As the logistics industrial environment becomes more complex and its scale becomes increase, the vehicle fleet scheduling system has become recognized the necessity as a major strategy in the logistics field. The vehicle fleet scheduling system is computerized package that find the vehicle routes and schedules to accomplish the required service to customers using vehicles. This paper introduces the state of the art of vehicle fleet scheduling system in Korea and foreign country and the future research subject are presented.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 1997.07c
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• pp.829-831
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• 1997

We investigated configuration plan and future expectation of the power distribution test center. The example of foreign country's test center was analyzed, and the required test facilities, test line, and power source for the operation of our test center were proposed.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.268-275
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• 2003

We consider the Bayesian accelerated failure time model. The error distribution is assigned a skewed normal distribution which is including normal distribution. For noninformative priors of regression coefficients, we show the propriety of posterior distribution. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm(i.e., Gibbs Sampler) is used to obtain a predictive distribution for a future observation and Bayes estimates of regression coefficients.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.44 no.1
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• pp.33-40
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• 2020

Background: Understanding the geographical distribution of a species is a key component of studying its ecology, evolution, and conservation. Although Schlegel's Japanese gecko (Gekko japonicus) is widely distributed in Northeast Asia, its distribution has not been studied in detail. We predicted the present and future distribution of G. japonicus across China, Japan, and Korea based on 19 climatic and 5 environmental variables using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) species distribution model. Results: Present time major suitable habitats for G. japonicus, having greater than 0.55 probability of presence (threshold based on the average predicted probability of the presence records), are located at coastal and inland cities of China; western, southern, and northern coasts of Kyushu and Honshu in Japan; and southern coastal cities of Korea. Japan contained 69.3% of the suitable habitats, followed by China (27.1%) and Korea (4.2%). Temperature seasonality (66.5% of permutation importance) was the most important predictor of the distribution. Future distributions according to two climate change scenarios predicted that by 2070, and overall suitable habitats would decrease compared to the present habitats by 18.4% (scenario RCP 4.5) and 10.4% (scenario RCP 8.5). In contrast to these overall trends, range expansions are expected in inland areas of China and southern parts of Korea. Conclusions: Suitable habitats predicted for G. japonicus are currently located in coastal cities of Japan, China, and Korea, as well as in isolated patches of inland China. Due to climate change, suitable habitats are expected to shrink along coastlines, particularly at the coastal-edge of climate change zones. Overall, our results provide essential distribution range information for future ecological studies of G. japonicus across its distribution range.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.348-357
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• 2015

The main purpose of this study is to understand the potential geographic distribution of P. koraiensis, which is known to be one of major economic tree species, based on the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 8.5 scenarios and current geographic distribution from National Forest Inventory(NFI) data using ecological niche modeling. P. koraiensis abundance data extracted from NFI were utilized to estimate current geographic distribution. Also, GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production) model, one of the ecological niche models, was applied to estimate potential geographic distribution and to project future changes. Environmental explanatory variables showing Area Under Curve (AUC) value bigger than 0.6 were selected and constructed into the final model by running the model for each of the 27 variables. The results of the model validation which was performed based on confusion matrix statistics, showed quite high suitability. Currently P. koraiensis is distributed widely from 300m to 1,200m in altitude and from south to north as a result of national greening project in 1970s although major populations are found in elevated and northern area. The results of this study were successful in showing the current distribution of P. koraiensis and projecting their future changes. Future model for P. koraiensis suggest large areas predicted under current climate conditions may be contracted by 2090s showing dramatic habitat loss. Considering the increasing status of atmospheric $CO_2$ and air temperature in Korea, P. koraiensis seems to experience the significant decrease of potential distribution range in the future. The final model in this study may be used to identify climate change impacts on distribution of P. koraiensis in Korea, and a deeper understanding of its correlation may be helpful when planning afforestation strategies.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.41 no.11
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• pp.310-317
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• 2017

Background: Many studies about climate-related range shift of plants have focused on understanding the relationship between climatic factors and plant distributions. However, consideration of adaptation factors, such as dispersal and plant physiological processes, is necessary for a more accurate prediction. This study predicted the future distribution of marlberry (Ardisia japonica), a warm-adapted evergreen broadleaved shrub, under climate change in relation to the dispersal ability that is determined by elapsed time for the first seed production. Results: We introduced climate change data under four representative concentration pathway (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) scenarios from five different global circulation models (GCMs) to simulate the future distributions (2041~2060) of marlberry. Using these 20 different climate data, ensemble forecasts were produced by averaging the future distributions of marlberry in order to minimize the model uncertainties. Then, a dispersal-limited function was applied to the ensemble forecast in order to exam the impact of dispersal capacity on future marlberry distributions. In the dispersal-limited function, elapsed time for the first seed production and possible dispersal distances define the dispersal capacity. The results showed that the current suitable habitats of marlberry expanded toward central coast and southern inland area from the current southern and mid-eastern coast area in Korea. However, given the dispersal-limited function, this experiment showed lower expansions to the central coast area and southern inland area. Conclusions: This study well explains the importance of dispersal capacity in the prediction of future marlberry distribution and can be used as basic information in understanding the climate change effects on the future distributions of Ardisia japonica.

• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.65-72
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• 2018

Purpose - One of the biggest problems in the e-learning distribution process is the lack of quality content and learners' discredit in e-learning content. In order to respond to the various demands of the corporate education field appropriately, it is necessary to search for directions of new e-learning models that are out of traditional e-learning contents. The purpose of this study is to identify recent trend issues related to corporate e-learning and to suggest directions for development. Research design, data, and methodology - Based on the literature review, trend issues that should be considered important in corporate e-learning were derived. Online survey was conducted to evaluate the importance-feasibility of each issue to 13 experts on e-learning and corporate education. The contents of the questionnaire are as follows: 1) recognition of importance and feasibility of trend issues to be considered important in the future corporate education field; 2) factors to be considered in developing future e-learning contents. Results - Six trends derived from a comprehensive literature review. The most important e-learning trends for corporate education field were 'mobile learning', 'micro learning', 'blended learning', 'social learning', 'adaptive learning', 'engaged learning'. As a result of evaluating the importance and feasibility of each issue, experts point out that 'mobile learning' and 'micro learning' should be actively considered for introduction and utilization at present. In addition, 'social learning' and 'blended learning' need to be actively considered in the near future. On the other hand, experts recognized that 'adaptive learning' and 'engaged learning' need to be prepared from a long-term perspective. Conclusions - There are two main reasons for this result. First, in corporate e-learning, it is important to 1) be able to update on time, 2) the connection with the workplace is important. Second, it requires realistic verification of the expected performance of the learning model. To be considered part of the future are as follows: First, the value and effectiveness of the new e-learning type should be studied. Seconds, e-learning contents should be developed through adopting SAM or Agile methodology. Through this process, we would be able to enhance the quality in e-learning content.