• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.59-71
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• 2014

Purpose - In recent years, many firms have attempted various approaches to cope with the continual increase of aviation transportation. The previous research into freight charge forecasting models has focused on regression analyses using a few influence factors to calculate the future price. However, these approaches have limitations that make them difficult to apply into practice: They cannot respond promptly to small price changes and their predictive power is relatively low. Therefore, the current study proposes a freight charge-forecasting model using time series data instead a regression approach. The main purposes of this study can thus be summarized as follows. First, a proper model for freight charge using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, which is mainly used for time series forecast, is presented. Second, a modified ARIMA model for freight charge prediction and the standard process of determining freight charge based on the model is presented. Third, a straightforward freight charge prediction model for practitioners to apply and utilize is presented. Research design, data, and methodology - To develop a new freight charge model, this study proposes the ARIMAC(p,q) model, which applies time difference constantly to address the correlation coefficient (autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function) problem as it appears in the ARIMA(p,q) model and materialize an error-adjusted ARIMAC(p,q). Cargo Account Settlement Systems (CASS) data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) are used to predict the air freight charge. In the modeling, freight charge data for 72 months (from January 2006 to December 2011) are used for the training set, and a prediction interval of 23 months (from January 2012 to November 2013) is used for the validation set. The freight charge from November 2012 to November 2013 is predicted for three routes - Los Angeles, Miami, and Vienna - and the accuracy of the prediction interval is analyzed using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Results - The result of the proposed model shows better accuracy of prediction because the MAPE of the error-adjusted ARIMAC model is 10% and the MAPE of ARIMAC is 11.2% for the L.A. route. For the Miami route, the proposed model also shows slightly better accuracy in that the MAPE of the error-adjusted ARIMAC model is 3.5%, while that of ARIMAC is 3.7%. However, for the Vienna route, the accuracy of ARIMAC is better because the MAPE of ARIMAC is 14.5% and the MAPE of the error-adjusted ARIMAC model is 15.7%. Conclusions - The accuracy of the error-adjusted ARIMAC model appears better when a route's freight charge variance is large, and the accuracy of ARIMA is better when the freight charge variance is small or has a trend of ascent or descent. From the results, it can be concluded that the ARIMAC model, which uses moving averages, has less predictive power for small price changes, while the error-adjusted ARIMAC model, which uses error correction, has the advantage of being able to respond to price changes quickly.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.1-13
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• 2018

The present study was conducted to analyze transport mode choice factors of shippers in Korea and to suggest policy implications and directions for future research. The findings showed that the research on freight mode choice factors in Korea is somewhat insufficient compared to that of other countries. In order to enhance the research, it is necessary to expand the number of studies and to strengthen the research to reflect characteristics of each transport mode. In particular, it is necessary to focus on identifying the characteristics of multimodal transport, including railway and shipping linked to truck. On the other hand, it was confirmed that the major factors influencing the choice of transport mode of shippers in Korea overlapped with foreign research cases. In addition, the implications for policy were derived when the analysis was separately conducted for Korea and other countries regarding individual transport mode and transport range. These results could be applied to various fields such as policy making to improve the efficiency of shippers' selection of transport mode and the estimation of transport mode choice model.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.39 no.4
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• pp.191-203
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• 2023

This paper analyzed the overall status of the domestic freight transportation business, established SWOT analysis and strategy through existing literature research and designed an AHP model to derive priorities for each strategy. The SWOT analysis analyzed the management model of the consignment borrowers belonging to a transportation company that did not handle the supplies with the lowest satisfaction with the consignment system. The AHP model was designed by establishing a SWOT strategy through SWOT analysis. As a result of the analysis of the upper class, priorities were derived in the order of WO strategy, SO strategy, ST strategy, and WT strategy. As a result of comprehensive priorities for the development strategy of the domestic freight transportation business, WO strategy's "Improvement of cooperative relations between transportation companies and consignment owners through fair consignment contracts" was first, SO strategy's "Public promotion of the necessity of consignment systems based on high economic feasibility and reliability" was second, and ST strategy's "Proposal of policies to strengthen financial performance through the introduction of freight transport platforms" was fourth, followed by WT strategy's "Improvement of satisfaction with transport services through the introduction of freight transport platforms" and SO strategy's "Expansion of safe freight systems" in sixth, respectively.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.28 no.6
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• pp.133-146
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• 2010

The objective of this study is to develop a supply chain-based freight distribution channel choice model considering shippers' logistics behaviors which will be used for freight demand estimation. For this purpose, this study utilized the distribution channel data of the petrochemical and automobile industries collected by KTDB center. The distribution channel choice models for these industries were developed by including transport mode, time, cost, and shipment size. It was found that the multinomial logit model with transport cost, time and shipment size is the best, and as shipment increases, bigger transport mode is preferred. Generally direct distribution channel with small truck was preferred over the one using distribution center and/or big truck.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.157-166
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• 2022

In this study, The goal is to analyze the feasibility of introducing a Piggyback system that can reduce the time and cost incurred by transshipment work and improve the transportation speed when transporting complex cargo by rail. To this end, the feasibility analysis methodology is reviewed through domestic and international literature review. In order to quantitatively derive the feasibility analysis values, a transportation database was applied to develop a freight transport simulation model and a freight demand prediction model for major freight transport O-D routes with a transportation distance of 200 km or more. As a result of analyzing economic feasibility by setting the analysis period to 15 years on the premise that the Piggyback System will be introduced on major cargo transport O-D routes in 2025, the NPV value was positive and the B/C value was 1.18, indicating that the Piggyback system was economical. The proposed research method can be meaningful data for establishing transportation policies that can improve the competitiveness of railroad transportation.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.83-92
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• 2002

Freight mode choice models are essential to the analysis of many areas of transport research. However, observations of actual market choices have only been made in a limited number of situations. Therefore, stated preference(SP) techniques have emerged as an alternative source of actual market choices to be used for estimating freight mode choice models. Considerable confidence exists about SP data, but little consideration has been given to the potential for estimation bias. This paper has been motivated by the theoretical side of estimating SP discrete choice models, focusing on a case study of freight mode choice. Recently developed simulation methods are used to construct inherent random heterogeneity legit models, which consider individual heterogeneity, its inheritance to the next choices and overcome the independence from irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property. This Paper contributes to the development of models dealing with heterogeneity and its inheritance, and sheds light on the heterogeneity of freight transport.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.59-83
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• 2010

The Korean Government decided to reduce 30% of carbon emissions as of 2020, tightening regulations to reduce greenhouse gas in the international society. Therefore it will burden Korean logistics industry that overland trucking freight covers 70~80% of all, to lower emissions. As known, rail and coast(feeder) transport systems can be substituted for road transport but there are many problems to solve in Korean multimodal (intermodal) transport system such as time, cost, etc. Because of this, multimodal transport system should be improved systematically. For the reason, it aims to study a conceptual model with Thinking Process of TOC(theory of constraints) and System Dynamics to help improve the existing multimodal transport system for green logistics.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.39 no.2
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• pp.165-178
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• 2023

This paper presented a management model for continuous development and co-prosperity between freight car transportation companies and consigned car owners, which are the subjects of the consignment system. A structural equation-based questionnaire was created to measure the variables necessary for establishing a management model, such as business owners' perceptions of each other and their needs for improvement, by analyzing the internal and external environment of the freight transport market and conducting surveys of freight companies and consigned vehicle owners. As a result of the analysis, it was confirmed that the rationality of the consignment system did not have a significant effect on financial performance or the level of transportation service, while the external environment and compensation system of the transportation business had a significant impact on financial performance and level of transportation service. In addition, the rationality of the consignment system does not affect the improvement of the relationship between project entities, but it does affect the level of trust. It was confirmed that the external environment and compensation system of the transport business have an effect on both relationship improvement and trust level improvement. It was found that the level of trust affects financial performance, and relationship improvement does not affect both financial performance and transportation service level. It is necessary to manage the consignment system based on the confirmed analysis results in order for the domestic freight company and the consigned vehicle owner to coexist and develop each other in the truck transportation market.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.18 no.5
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• pp.471-480
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• 2015

Reliance on road transport in domestic logistics can lead to intensified congestion and greenhouse gas emissions due to the rise in oil prices, any increase in logistics costs can have a high social cost. The government policy on Low Carbon Green Growth is seeking to take advantage of the railway system. However, existing railway transport logistics systems, for reasons such as low speed, low track capacity constraints, and the impossibility of implementing a Door to Door system, make it difficult to activate a railway logistics program. As a result of this study, a national R&D project to develop a High-Speed Passenger/Baggage Mixed Train(Hy-SoBex) utilizing the rail capacity constraints to overcome the difficulties of linking an air cargo and freight railway logistics system, we propose a variety of service models and select the optimal service model.

• THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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• v.44
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• pp.181-210
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• 2009

This paper discusses global expansion and global strategies of shipping firms. Acknowledging the lack of research on global expansion by freight transport companies, this paper employs the resource-focused model, and explores "why shipping companies emerge" and "why the strategic behaviour of shipping companies is different in the global market". Despite there being a plethora of theoretical and empirical studies on the international operations of business organisations, it is acknowledged that researchers have largely neglected the issues regarding the international expansion within the freight transport industry. Identifying the general lack of contemporary studies concerning the international behaviour of shipping firms, this study addresses the important gap in our knowledge in the theoretical manner. The theoretical analysis suggests that the shipping company's internal resources can be a real reason for the international market participation.