• 정보통신설비학회논문지
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• 제9권3호
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• pp.107-111
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• 2010

This paper is concerned with data center remote management service for demanding forecasting and reduction of energy usage. More particularly, intelligent server rack, mounted on inside of the data center, collects information about energy usage and temperature per server. Using this information, management platform forecasts energy demand in the future and automatically makes report according green environment raw. By providing the remote management service through remote terminals, users are not tied to a time and place to control device inside the data center. In this way, the data center remote management service enhances operability of the facility.

• 한국산업융합학회 논문집
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• 제26권4_2호
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• pp.715-724
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• 2023

Solar energy forecasting is essential for (1) power system planning, management, and operation, requiring accurate predictions. It is crucial for (2) ensuring a continuous and sustainable power supply to customers and (3) optimizing the operation and control of renewable energy systems and the electricity market. Recently, research has been focusing on developing solar energy forecasting models that can provide daily plans for power usage and production and be verified in the electricity market. In these prediction models, various data, including solar energy generation and climate data, are chosen to be utilized in the forecasting process. The most commonly used climate data (such as temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, solar radiation, and wind speed) significantly influence the fluctuations in solar energy generation based on weather conditions. Therefore, this paper proposes a hybrid forecasting model by combining the strengths of the Prophet model and the GRU model, which exhibits excellent predictive performance. The forecasting periods for solar energy generation are tested in short-term (2 days, 7 days) and medium-term (15 days, 30 days) scenarios. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach outperforms the conventional Prophet model by more than twice in terms of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and surpasses the modified GRU model by more than 1.5 times, showcasing superior performance.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제42권1호
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• pp.129-136
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• 2019

In this study, we proposed a model for forecasting power energy demand by investigating how outside temperature at a given time affected power consumption and. To this end, we analyzed the time series of power consumption in terms of the power spectrum and found the periodicities of one day and one week. With these periodicities, we investigated two time series of temperature and power consumption, and found, for a given hour, an approximate linear relation between temperature and power consumption. We adopted an exponential smoothing model to examine the effect of the linearity in forecasting the power demand. In particular, we adjusted the exponential smoothing model by using the variation of power consumption due to temperature change. In this way, the proposed model became a mixture of a time series model and a regression model. We demonstrated that the adjusted model outperformed the exponential smoothing model alone in terms of the mean relative percentage error and the root mean square error in the range of 3%~8% and 4kWh~27kWh, respectively. The results of this study can be used to the energy management system in terms of the effective control of the cross usage of the electric energy together with the outside temperature.

• International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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• 제22권10호
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• pp.177-182
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• 2022

Technology is progressing with every passing day and the enormous usage of electricity is becoming a necessity. One of the techniques to enjoy the assistances in a smart home is the efficiency to manage the electric energy. When electric energy is managed in an appropriate way, it drastically saves sufficient power even to be spent during hard time as when hit by natural calamities. To accomplish this, prediction of energy consumption plays a very important role. This proposed prediction model Coherent Weighted K-Means Clustering ARIMA (CWKMCA) enhances the weighted k-means clustering technique by adding weights to the cluster points. Forecasting is done using the ARIMA model based on the centroid of the clusters produced. The dataset for this proposed work is taken from the Pecan Project in Texas, USA. The level of accuracy of this model is compared with the traditional ARIMA model and the Weighted K-Means Clustering ARIMA Model. When predicting,errors such as RMSE, MAPE, AIC and AICC are analysed, the results of this suggested work reveal lower values than the ARIMA and Weighted K-Means Clustering ARIMA models. This model also has a greater loglikelihood, demonstrating that this model outperforms the ARIMA model for time series forecasting.

• 지식경영연구
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• 제9권4호
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• pp.51-63
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• 2008

Effective energy consumption now becomes one of the area of knowledge management which potentially gives global impact. It is considerable for the energy management to optimize the usage of energy, rather than decreasing energy consumption at any cases. To resolve these challenges, an intelligent and personalized system which helps the individuals control their own behaviors in an optimal and timely manner is needed. So far, however, since the legacy energy management systems are nation-wide or organizational, individual-level energy management is nearly impossible. Moreover, most estimating methods of energy consumption are based on forecasting techniques which tend to risky or analysis models which may not be provided in a timely manner. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to propose a novel individual-level energy management system which aims to realize timely and personalized energy management based on context-aware computing approach. To do so, an index model for energy consumption is proposed with a corresponding service framework.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제15권6호
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• pp.1957-1980
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• 2021

The significant aim of this research has always been to evaluate the mechanism for efficient and inherently aware usage of vitality in-home devices, thus improving the information of smart metering systems with regard to the usage of selected homes and the time of use. Advances in information processing are commonly used to quantify gigantic building activity data steps to boost the activity efficiency of the building energy systems. Here, some smart data mining models are offered to measure, and predict the time series for energy in order to expose different ephemeral principles for using energy. Such considerations illustrate the use of machines in relation to time, such as day hour, time of day, week, month and year relationships within a family unit, which are key components in gathering and separating the effect of consumers behaviors in the use of energy and their pattern of energy prediction. It is necessary to determine the multiple relations through the usage of different appliances from simultaneous information flows. In comparison, specific relations among interval-based instances where multiple appliances use continue for certain duration are difficult to determine. In order to resolve these difficulties, an unsupervised energy time-series data clustering and a frequent pattern mining study as well as a deep learning technique for estimating energy use were presented. A broad test using true data sets that are rich in smart meter data were conducted. The exact results of the appliance designs that were recognized by the proposed model were filled out by Deep Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Recurrent Neural Networks (LSTM and GRU) at each stage, with consolidated accuracy of 94.79%, 97.99%, 99.61%, for 25%, 50%, and 75%, respectively.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.149-170
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• 2006

In this paper, an energy-economy-environment dynamic simulation model was developed to using system dynamics methodology. It describes current energy-economy-environment systems and forecasts changes caused by levying of carbon tax. The model is composed of three modules: an energy module, an economic module and an environmental module. Variables are interrelated in each module, and three modules are linked by several linkage variables. Setting up the linkage variables is an important factor for the composition of the model. The simulation result shows a change of the national GDP, usage of energy, and $CO_2$ emissions under levying and reinvestment of carbon tax considering various scenarios for the charging cost.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제21권10호
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• pp.8-15
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• 2020

딥러닝을 사용한 예측 방법은 동일한 예측 모델과 파라미터를 사용한다 하더라도 데이터셋의 특성에 따라 결과가 일정하지 않다. 예를 들면, 데이터셋 A에 최적화된 예측 모델 X를 다른 특성을 가진 데이터셋 B에 적용하면 데이터셋 A와 같이 좋은 예측 결과를 기대하기 어렵다. 따라서 높은 정확도를 갖는 예측 모델을 구현하기 위해서는 데이터셋의 성격을 고려하여 예측 모델을 최적화하는 것이 필요하다. 본 논문에서는 하루 대학 캠퍼스 전력사용량을 1시간 단위로 예측하기 위해 데이터셋의 특성이 고려된 예측 모델이 도출되는 일련의 방법을 단계적으로 제시한다. 데이터 전처리 과정을 시작으로, 이상치 제거와 데이터셋 분류 과정 그리고 합성곱 신경망과 장기-단기 기억 신경망이 결합된 알고리즘(CNN-LSTM: Convolutional Neural Networks-Long Short-Term Memory Networks) 기반 하이퍼파라미터 튜닝 과정을 소개한다. 본 논문에서 제안하는 예측 모델은, 각 시간별 24개 포인트에서 2%의 평균 절대비율 오차(MAPE: Mean Absolute Percentage Error)를 보인다. 단순히 예측 알고리즘만을 적용한 모델과는 달리, 단계적 방법을 통해 최적화된 예측 모델을 사용하여 단일 전력 입력 변수만을 사용해서 높은 예측 정확도를 도출한다. 이 예측 모델은 모바일 에너지관리시스템(Energy Management System: EMS) 어플리케이션에 적용되어 관리자나 소비자에게 최적의 전력사용 방안을 제시할 수 있으며 전력 사용 효율 개선에 크게 기여할 것으로 기대된다.

• 한국차세대컴퓨팅학회논문지
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• 제13권4호
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• pp.7-18
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• 2017

현대사회에서 가장 중요한 에너지원 중 하나인 전력 에너지는 적절한 수요 공급 조절이 매우 중요하다. 하지만 수요 예측을 위해 필요한 전력데이터는 전력 사용자의 행위에 대한 정보가 포함 될 수 있어, 이를 분석할 경우 프라이버시 침해 문제로 이어질 수 있다. 이에 본 논문에서는 사용자의 전력 사용 정보에 회귀 분석을 적용하여 사용자의 향후 전력 사용량을 예측하되, Intel SGX가 제공하는 안전한 실행 환경 상에서 이를 수행함으로써 사용자의 전력 사용 정보를 안전하게 보호하는 방법을 제안한다. 다양한 차수의 회귀 관계식에 대한 실험을 수행하여 오차를 최소로 하는 회귀 관계식을 선정하였으며, 제안하는 방법을 이용하면 프라이버시 보호 기능을 제공하는 기존의 전력 수요 예측 방법보다 낮은 평균오차율을 보임을 확인하였다.

• 정보처리학회논문지:소프트웨어 및 데이터공학
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• 제11권8호
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• pp.339-346
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• 2022

최근 화석연료의 무분별한 사용으로 인한 자원고갈 문제 및 기후변화 문제 등이 심각해짐에 따라 화석연료를 대체할 수 있는 신재생에너지에 대한 관심이 증가하고 있다. 특히 신재생에너지 중 태양광 에너지는 다른 신재생에너지원에 비해 고갈될 염려가 적고, 공간적인 제약이 크지 않아 전국적으로 수요가 증가하고 있다. 태양광 발전 시스템에서 생산된 전력을 효율적으로 사용하기 위해서는 보다 정확한 태양광 발전량 예측 모델이 필요하다. 이를 위하여 다양한 기계학습 및 심층학습 기반의 태양광 발전량 예측 모델이 제안되었지만, 심층학습 기반의 예측 모델은 모델 내부에서 일어나는 의사결정 과정을 해석하기가 어렵다는 단점을 보유하고 있다. 이러한 문제를 해결하기 위하여 설명 가능한 인공지능 기술이 많은 주목을 받고 있다. 설명 가능한 인공지능 기술을 통하여 예측 모델의 결과 도출 과정을 해석할 수 있다면 모델의 신뢰성을 확보할 수 있을 뿐만 아니라 해석된 도출 결과를 바탕으로 모델을 개선하여 성능 향상을 기대할 수도 있다. 이에 본 논문에서는 BiLSTM(Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory)을 사용하여 모델을 구성하고, 모델에서 어떻게 예측값이 도출되었는지를 SHAP(SHapley Additive exPlanations)을 통하여 설명하는 설명 가능한 태양광 발전량 예측 기법을 제안한다.