• Computational Structural Engineering
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.109-116
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• 1994

In this paper, various reliability analysis methods for calculating a probability of failure are investigated for their accuracy and efficiency. Crude Monte Carlo method is used as a basis for the comparison of various numerical results. For the sampling methods, Importance Sampling method and Directional Simulation method are considered for overcoming a drawback of Crude Monte Carlo method. For the approximate methods, conventional Rackwitz-Fiessler method. 3-parameter Chen-Lind method, and Rosenblatt transformation method are compared on the basis of First order reliability method. As a Second-order reliability method, Curvature-Fitting paraboloid method, Point-fitting paraboloid method, and Log-likelihood function method are explored in order to verify the accuracy of the reliability calculation results. These methods mentioned above would have some difficulty unless the limit state equation is expressed explicitly in terms of random design variables. Thus, there is a need to develop some general reliability methods for the case where an implicit limit state equation is given. For this purpose, Response surface method is used where the limit state equation is approximated by regression analysis of the response surface outcomes resulted from the structural analysis. From the application of these various reliability methods to three examples, it is found that Directional Simulation method and Response Surface method are very efficient and recommendable for the general reliability analysis problem cases.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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• 2008.11a
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• pp.439-440
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• 2008

• Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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• v.20 no.12
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• pp.2124-2135
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• 2006

In this paper, the reliability estimation of pipelines is performed by employing the probabilistic method, which accounts for the uncertainties in the load and resistance parameters of the limit state function. The FORM (first order reliability method) and the SORM (second order reliability method) are carried out to estimate the failure probability of pipeline utilizing the FAD (failure assessment diagram). And the reliability of pipeline is assessed by using this failure probability and analyzed in accordance with a target safety level. Furthermore, the MCS (Monte Carlo Simulation) is used to verify the results of the FORM and the SORM. It is noted that the failure probability increases with the increase of dent depth, gouge depth, operating pressure, outside radius, and the decrease of wall thickness. It is found that the FORM utilizing the FAD is a useful and is an efficient method to estimate the failure probability in the reliability assessment of a pipeline. Furthermore, the pipeline safety assessment technique with the deterministic procedure utilizing the FAD only is turned out more conservative than those obtained by using the probability theory together with the FAD. The probabilistic method such as the FORM, the SORM and the MCS can be used by most plant designers regarding the operating condition and design parameters.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 2003.04a
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• pp.103-110
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• 2003

A hybrid structural reliability analysis method that integrates a commercial finite element program and a reliability analysis algorithm is proposed to estimate the safety of real structures in this paper. Since finite element method (FEM) is most commonly and widely used in the analysis and design practice of real structures, it appears to be necessary to use general FEM program in the structural reliability analysis. In this case, simple conventional reliability methods cannot be used because the limit state function can only be expressed in an algorithmic form. The response surface method(RSM)-based reliability algorithm with the first-order reliability method (FORM) found to be ideal in this respect and is used in this paper. The intention of use of RSM is to develop, albeit approximately, an explicit expression of the limit state function for real structures. The applicability of the proposed method to real structures is examined with help of the example in consideration of a concrete dam. Both the strength and serviceability limit states are considered in this example.

• Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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• v.19 no.6
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• pp.1280-1289
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• 2005

This paper presents the effects of corrosion environments of failure pressure model for buried pipelines on failure prediction by using a failure probability. The FORM (first order reliability method) is used in order to estimate the failure probability in the buried pipelines with corrosion defects. The effects of varying distribution types of random variables such as normal, lognormal and Weibull distributions on the failure probability of buried pipelines are systematically investigated. It is found that the failure probability for the MB31G model is larger than that for the B31G model. And the failure probability is estimated as the largest for the Weibull distribution and the smallest for the normal distribution. The effect of data scattering in corrosion environments on failure probability is also investigated and it is recognized that the scattering of wall thickness and yield strength of pipeline affects the failure probability significantly. The normalized margin is defined and estimated. Furthermore, the normalized margin is used to predict the failure probability using the fitting lines between failure probability and normalized margin.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.28 no.10
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• pp.1458-1466
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• 2004

Deterministic optimum designs that are obtained without consideration of uncertainties could lead to unrealiable designs. Such deterministic engineering optimization tends to promote the structural system with less reliability redundancy than obtained with conventional design procedures using the factor of safety. Consequently, deterministic optimized structures will usually have higher failure probabilities than unoptimized structures. This paper proposes the reliability based design optimization technique fur apressure tank considering temperature effect. This paper presents an efficient and stable reliability based design optimization method by using the advanced first order second moment method, which evaluates a probabilistic constraint for more accuracy. In addition, the response surface method is utilized to approximate the performance functions describing the system characteristics in the reliability based design optimization procedure.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.33 no.11
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• pp.1195-1201
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• 2009

In this study, effective methods for reliability estimation and reliability-based design optimization(RBDO) are proposed using kriging metamodel and genetic algorithm. In our previous study, we proposed the accurate method for reliability estimation using two-staged kriging metamodel and genetic algorithm. In this study, the possibility of applying the previously proposed method to RBDO is investigated. The efficiency and accuracy of that method were much improved than those of the first order reliability method(FORM). Finally, the effective method for RBDO is proposed and applied to numerical examples. The results are compared to the existing RBDO methods and shown to be very effective and accurate.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.537-549
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• 2001

The effect of partially restrained(PR) connections and the uncertainties in them on the reliability of steel frames subjected to seismic loading is addressed. A stochastic finite element method(SFEM) is proposed combining the concepts of the response surface method(RSM), the finite element method(FEM), the first-order reliability method (FORM), and the iterative linear interpolation scheme. The behavior of PR connections is captured using moment-relative rotation curves, and is represented by the four-parameter Richard model. For seismic excitation, the loading, unloading, and reloading behavior at PR connections is modeled using moment-relative rotation curves and the Masing rule. The seismic loading is applied in the time domain for realistic representation. The reliability of steel frames in the presence of PR connections is calculated considering all major sources of nonlinearity. The algorithm is clarified with the help of an example.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.51-61
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• 2006

An efficient and accurate hybrid reliability analysis method is proposed in this paper to quantify the risk of an axially loaded single pile considering pile-soil interaction behavior and uncertainties in various design variables. The proposed method intelligently integrates the concepts of the response surface method, the finite difference method, the first-order reliability method, and the iterative linear interpolation scheme. The load transfer method is incorporated into the finite difference method for the deterministic analysis of a single pile-soil system. The uncertainties associated with load conditions, material and section properties of a pile and soil properties are explicitly considered. The risk corresponding to both serviceability limit state and strength limit state of the pile and soil is estimated. Applicability, accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method in the safety assessment of a realistic pile-soil system subjected to axial loads are verified by comparing it with the results of the Monte Carlo simulation technique.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.195-206
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• 1991

This paper is concerned with comparison of the first-order reliability methods applied to the assessment of structural safety. For convenience the reliability methods are divided into two categories : the One can explicitly consider the effects of uncertainties in material and geometric variables on those of load effects, say stresses and displacement in the structural analysis procedure and the other one does not. The first method is commonly termed as the stochastic finite element method(SFEM) or probabilistic finite element method(PFEM) and the second method is termed heroin as the ordinary reliability method to distinct it from the stochastic finite element method in which the structural analysis is carried out just once and the load effects are directly input into the reliability analysis procedure. This is based on the reasonable assumption that the level of uncertainties of load effects is the same as those of load itself. In this paper the above two different reliability method have been applied to the safety assessment of plane frame structures and compared thier results from the view point of their efficiency and usefulness. As lear as results of the present structure models are concerned, it can be said that the ordinary reliability method can give reasonable results when the uncertainties of material and geometric variables are comparatively small, say when less than about 15% and the stochastic finite element method is desired to be applied to the structure in which the COV's are comparatively great, say when greater than about 15%.