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Study of East Asia Climate Change for the Last Glacial Maximum Using Numerical Model (수치모델을 이용한 Last Glacial Maximum의 동아시아 기후변화 연구)

  • Kim, Seong-Joong;Park, Yoo-Min;Lee, Bang-Yong;Choi, Tae-Jin;Yoon, Young-Jun;Suk, Bong-Chool
    • The Korean Journal of Quaternary Research
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    • v.20 no.1 s.26
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    • pp.51-66
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    • 2006
  • The climate of the last glacial maximum (LGM) in northeast Asia is simulated with an atmospheric general circulation model of NCAR CCM3 at spectral truncation of T170, corresponding to a grid cell size of roughly 75 km. Modern climate is simulated by a prescribed sea surface temperature and sea ice provided from NCAR, and contemporary atmospheric CO2, topography, and orbital parameters, while LGM simulation was forced with the reconstructed CLIMAP sea surface temperatures, sea ice distribution, ice sheet topography, reduced $CO_2$, and orbital parameters. Under LGM conditions, surface temperature is markedly reduced in winter by more than $18^{\circ}C$ in the Korean west sea and continental margin of the Korean east sea, where the ocean exposed to land in the LGM, whereas in these areas surface temperature is warmer than present in summer by up to $2^{\circ}C$. This is due to the difference in heat capacity between ocean and land. Overall, in the LGM surface is cooled by $4{\sim}6^{\circ}C$ in northeast Asia land and by $7.1^{\circ}C$ in the entire area. An analysis of surface heat fluxes show that the surface cooling is due to the increase in outgoing longwave radiation associated with the reduced $CO_2$ concentration. The reduction in surface temperature leads to a weakening of the hydrological cycle. In winter, precipitation decreases largely in the southeastern part of Asia by about $1{\sim}4\;mm/day$, while in summer a larger reduction is found over China. Overall, annual-mean precipitation decreases by about 50% in the LGM. In northeast Asia, evaporation is also overall reduced in the LGM, but the reduction of precipitation is larger, eventually leading to a drier climate. The drier LGM climate simulated in this study is consistent with proxy evidence compiled in other areas. Overall, the high-resolution model captures the climate features reasonably well under global domain.

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A Study on the Tree Surgery Problem and Protection Measures in Monumental Old Trees (천연기념물 노거수 외과수술 문제점 및 보존 관리방안에 관한 연구)

  • Jung, Jong Soo
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.122-142
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    • 2009
  • This study explored all domestic and international theories for maintenance and health enhancement of an old and big tree, and carried out the anatomical survey of the operation part of the tree toward he current status of domestic surgery and the perception survey of an expert group, and drew out following conclusion through the process of suggesting its reform plan. First, as a result of analyzing the correlation of the 67 subject trees with their ages, growth status. surroundings, it revealed that they were closely related to positional characteristic, damage size, whereas were little related to materials by fillers. Second, the size of the affected part was the most frequent at the bough sheared part under $0.09m^2$, and the hollow size by position(part) was the biggest at 'root + stem' starting from the behind of the main root and stem As a result of analyzing the correlation, the same result was elicited at the group with low correlation. Third, the problem was serious in charging the fillers (especially urethane) in the big hollow or exposed root produced at the behind of the root and stem part, or surface-processing it. The benefit by charging the hollow part was analyzed as not so much. Fourth, the surface-processing of fillers currently used (artificial bark) is mainly 'epoxy+woven fabric+cork', but it is not flexible, so it has brought forth problems of frequent cracks and cracked surface at the joint part with the treetextured part. Fifth, the correlation with the external status of the operated part was very high with the closeness, surface condition, formation of adhesive tissue and internal survey result. Sixth, the most influential thing on flushing by the wrong management of an old and big tree was banking, and a wrong pruning was the source of the ground part damage. In pruning a small bough can easily recover itself from its damage as its formation of adhesive tissue when it is cut by a standard method. Seventh, the parameters affecting the times of related business handling of an old and big tree are 'the need of the conscious reform of the manager and related business'. Eighth, a reform plan in an institutional aspect can include the arrangement of the law and organization of the old and big tree management and preservation at an institutional aspect. This study for preparing a reform plan through the status survey of the designated old and big tree, has a limit inducing a reform plan based on the status survey through individual research, and a weak point suggesting grounds by any statistical data. This can be complemented by subsequent studies.

An Study on Cognition and Investigation of Silla Tumuli in the Japanese Imperialistic Rule (일제강점기의 신라고분조사연구에 대한 검토)

  • Cha, Soon Chul
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.39
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    • pp.95-130
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    • 2006
  • Japanese government college researchers, including Sekino Tadashi(關野貞), have conducted research studies and collected data, on overall Korean cultural relics as well as Silla tumuli(新羅古墳) in the early modern times under the Japanese imperialistic rule. They were supported by the Meichi government in the early stage of research, by the Chosun government-general, and by their related organizations after Korea was coIonialized to carry out investigations on Korean antiquities, fine arts, architecture, anthropology, folklore, and so on. The objective for which they prosecuted inquiries into Korean cultural relics, including Silla tumuli, may be attributed to the purport to find out such data as needed for the theoretical foundation to justify their colonialization of Korea. Such a reason often showed locally biased or distorted views. Investigations and surveys had been incessantly carried out by those Japanese scholars who took a keen interest in Korean tumuli and excavated relics since 1886. 'Korea Architecture Survey Reports' conducted in 1904 by Sekino in Korea gives a brief introduction of the contents of Korean tumuli, including the Five Royal Mausoleums(五陵). And in 1906 Imanishi Ryu(今西龍) launched for the first time an excavation survey on Buksan Tumulus(北山古墳) in Sogeumgangsan(小金剛山) and on 'Namchong(南塚)' in Hwangnam-dong, which greatly contributed to the foundation of a basic understanding of Wooden chamber tombs with stone mound(積石木槨墳) and stone chambers with tunnel entrance(橫穴式石室墳). The ground plan and cross section of stone chambers made in 1909 at his excavation survey of seokchimchong(石枕塚) by Yazui Seiyichi(谷井第一) who majored in architecture made a drawing in excavation surveys for the first time in Korea, in which numerical expressions are sharply distinguished from the previous sketched ones. And even in the following excavation surveys this kind of drawing continued. Imanishi and Yazui elucidated that wooden chambers with stone mound chronologically differs from the stone chambers with tunnel entrance on the basis of the results of surveys of the locational characteristics of Silla tumuli, the forms and size of tomb entrance, excavated relics, and so forth. The government-general put in force 'the Historic Spots and Relics Preservation Rules' and 'the Historic Spots Survey Council Regulations' in 1916, establishing 'Historic Spots Survey Council and Museum Conference. When museums initiated their activities, they exhibited those relics excavated from tumuli and conducted surveys of relics with the permission of the Chosun government-general. A gold crown tomb(金冠塚) was excavated and surveyed in 1921 and a seobong tomb(瑞鳳塚) in 1927. Concomitantly with this large size wooden chamber tombs with stone mound attracted strong public attention. Furthermore, a variety of surveys of spots throughout the country were carried out but publication of tumuli had not yet been realized. Recently some researchers's endeavors led to publish unpublished reports. However, the reason why reports of such significant tumuli as seobong tomb had not yet been published may be ascribed to the critical point in those days. The Gyeongju Tumuli Distribution Chart made by Nomori Ken(野守健) on the basis of the land register in the late 1920s seems of much significance in that it specifies the size and locations of 155 tumuli and shows the overall shape of tumuli groups within the city, as used in today's distribution chart. In the 1930s Arimitsu Kyoichi(有光敎一) and Saito Tadashi(齋藤忠) identified through excavation surveys of many wooden chamber tombs with stone mound and stone chambers with tunnel entrance, that there were several forms of tombs in a tomb system. In particular, his excavation survey experience of those wooden chamber tombs with stone mound which were exposed in complicated and overlapped forms show features more developed than that of preceding excavation surveys and reports publication, and so on. The result of having reviewed the contents of many historic spots surveyed at that time. Therefore this reexamination is considered to be a significant project in arranging the history of archaeology in Korea.

A Methodology of Customer Churn Prediction based on Two-Dimensional Loyalty Segmentation (이차원 고객충성도 세그먼트 기반의 고객이탈예측 방법론)

  • Kim, Hyung Su;Hong, Seung Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.111-126
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    • 2020
  • Most industries have recently become aware of the importance of customer lifetime value as they are exposed to a competitive environment. As a result, preventing customers from churn is becoming a more important business issue than securing new customers. This is because maintaining churn customers is far more economical than securing new customers, and in fact, the acquisition cost of new customers is known to be five to six times higher than the maintenance cost of churn customers. Also, Companies that effectively prevent customer churn and improve customer retention rates are known to have a positive effect on not only increasing the company's profitability but also improving its brand image by improving customer satisfaction. Predicting customer churn, which had been conducted as a sub-research area for CRM, has recently become more important as a big data-based performance marketing theme due to the development of business machine learning technology. Until now, research on customer churn prediction has been carried out actively in such sectors as the mobile telecommunication industry, the financial industry, the distribution industry, and the game industry, which are highly competitive and urgent to manage churn. In addition, These churn prediction studies were focused on improving the performance of the churn prediction model itself, such as simply comparing the performance of various models, exploring features that are effective in forecasting departures, or developing new ensemble techniques, and were limited in terms of practical utilization because most studies considered the entire customer group as a group and developed a predictive model. As such, the main purpose of the existing related research was to improve the performance of the predictive model itself, and there was a relatively lack of research to improve the overall customer churn prediction process. In fact, customers in the business have different behavior characteristics due to heterogeneous transaction patterns, and the resulting churn rate is different, so it is unreasonable to assume the entire customer as a single customer group. Therefore, it is desirable to segment customers according to customer classification criteria, such as loyalty, and to operate an appropriate churn prediction model individually, in order to carry out effective customer churn predictions in heterogeneous industries. Of course, in some studies, there are studies in which customers are subdivided using clustering techniques and applied a churn prediction model for individual customer groups. Although this process of predicting churn can produce better predictions than a single predict model for the entire customer population, there is still room for improvement in that clustering is a mechanical, exploratory grouping technique that calculates distances based on inputs and does not reflect the strategic intent of an entity such as loyalties. This study proposes a segment-based customer departure prediction process (CCP/2DL: Customer Churn Prediction based on Two-Dimensional Loyalty segmentation) based on two-dimensional customer loyalty, assuming that successful customer churn management can be better done through improvements in the overall process than through the performance of the model itself. CCP/2DL is a series of churn prediction processes that segment two-way, quantitative and qualitative loyalty-based customer, conduct secondary grouping of customer segments according to churn patterns, and then independently apply heterogeneous churn prediction models for each churn pattern group. Performance comparisons were performed with the most commonly applied the General churn prediction process and the Clustering-based churn prediction process to assess the relative excellence of the proposed churn prediction process. The General churn prediction process used in this study refers to the process of predicting a single group of customers simply intended to be predicted as a machine learning model, using the most commonly used churn predicting method. And the Clustering-based churn prediction process is a method of first using clustering techniques to segment customers and implement a churn prediction model for each individual group. In cooperation with a global NGO, the proposed CCP/2DL performance showed better performance than other methodologies for predicting churn. This churn prediction process is not only effective in predicting churn, but can also be a strategic basis for obtaining a variety of customer observations and carrying out other related performance marketing activities.

Cohort Observation of Blood Lead Concentration of Storage Battery Workers (축전지공장 근로자들의 혈중 연농도에 대한 코호트 관찰)

  • Kim, Chang-Yoon;Kim, Jung-Man;Han, Gu-Wung;Park, Jung-Han
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.23 no.3 s.31
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    • pp.324-337
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    • 1990
  • To assess the effectiveness of the interventions in working environment and personal hygiene for the occupational exposure to the lead, 156 workers (116 exposed subjects and 40 controls) of a newly established battery factory were examined for their blood lead concentration (Pb-B) in every 3 months up to 18 months. Air lead concentration (Pb-A) of the workplaces was also checked for 3 times in 6 months interval from August 1987. Environmental intervention included the local exhaust ventilation and vacuum cleaning of the floor. Intervention of the personal hygiene included the daily change of clothes, compulsory shower after work and hand washing before meal, prohibition of cigarette smoking and food consumption at the work site and wearing mask. Mean Pb-B of the controls was $21.97{\pm}3.36{\mu}g/dl$ at the preemployment examination and slightly increased to $22.75{\pm}3.38{\mu}g/dl$ after 6 months. Mean Pb-B of the workers who were employed before the factory was in operation (Group A) was $20.49{\pm}3.84{\mu}g/dl$ on employment and it was increased to $23.90{\pm}5.30{\mu}g/dl$ after 3 months (p<0.01). Pb-B was increased to $28.84{\pm}5.76{\mu}g/dl$ 6 months after the employment which was 1 month after the initiation of intervention program. It did not increase thereafter and ranged between $26.83{\mu}g/dl\;and\;28.28{\mu}g/dl$ in the subsequent 4 tests. Mean Pb-B of the workers who were employed after the factory had been in operation but before the intervention program was initiated (Group B) was $16.58{\pm}4/53{\mu}g/dl$ before the exposure and it was increased to $28.82{\pm}5.66{\mu}g/dl$(P<0.01) in 3 months later (1 month after the intervention). The values of subsequent 4 tests remained between 26.46 and $28.54{\mu}g/dl$. Mean Pb-B of the workers who were employed after intervention program had been started (Group C) was $19.45{\pm}3.44{\mu}g/dl$ at the preemployment examination and gradually increased to $22.70{\pm}4.55{\mu}g/dl$ after 3 months(P<0.01), $23.68{\pm}4.18{\mu}g/dl$ after 6 months, and $24.42{\pm}3.60{\mu}g/dl$ after 9 months. Work stations were classified into 4 parts according to Pb-A. The Pb-A of part I, the highest areas, were $0.365mg/m^3$, and after the intervention the levels were decreased to $0.216mg/m^3\;and\;0.208mg/m^3$ in follow-up tests. The Pb-A of part II was decreased from $0.232mg/m^3\;to\;0.148mg/m^3,\;and\;0.120mg/m^3$ after the intervention. Pb-A of part III and W was tested only after intervention and the Pb-A of part III were $0.124mg/m^3$ in Jannuary 1988 and $0.081mg/m^3$ in August 1988. The Pb-A of part IV not stationed at one place but moving around, was $0.110mg/m^3$ in August 1988. There was no consistent relationship between Pb-B and Pb-A. Pb-B of the group A and B workers in the part of the highest Pb-A were lower than those of the workers in the parts of lower Pb-A. Pb-B of the workers in the part of the lowest Pb-A incerased more rapidly. Pb-B of group C workers was the highest in part I and the lowest in part IV. These findings suggest that Pb-B is more valid method than Pb-A for monitoring the health of lead workers and intervention in personal hygiene is more effective than environmental intervention.

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