• Title/Summary/Keyword: exponential model

Search Result 1,155, Processing Time 0.027 seconds

Comparative analysis of activation functions of artificial neural network for prediction of optimal groundwater level in the middle mountainous area of Pyoseon watershed in Jeju Island (제주도 표선유역 중산간지역의 최적 지하수위 예측을 위한 인공신경망의 활성화함수 비교분석)

  • Shin, Mun-Ju;Kim, Jin-Woo;Moon, Duk-Chul;Lee, Jeong-Han;Kang, Kyung Goo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.54 no.spc1
    • /
    • pp.1143-1154
    • /
    • 2021
  • The selection of activation function has a great influence on the groundwater level prediction performance of artificial neural network (ANN) model. In this study, five activation functions were applied to ANN model for two groundwater level observation wells in the middle mountainous area of the Pyoseon watershed in Jeju Island. The results of the prediction of the groundwater level were compared and analyzed, and the optimal activation function was derived. In addition, the results of LSTM model, which is a widely used recurrent neural network model, were compared and analyzed with the results of the ANN models with each activation function. As a result, ELU and Leaky ReLU functions were derived as the optimal activation functions for the prediction of the groundwater level for observation well with relatively large fluctuations in groundwater level and for observation well with relatively small fluctuations, respectively. On the other hand, sigmoid function had the lowest predictive performance among the five activation functions for training period, and produced inappropriate results in peak and lowest groundwater level prediction. The ANN-ELU and ANN-Leaky ReLU models showed groundwater level prediction performance comparable to that of the LSTM model, and thus had sufficient potential for application. The methods and results of this study can be usefully used in other studies.

The Effect of Data Size on the k-NN Predictability: Application to Samsung Electronics Stock Market Prediction (데이터 크기에 따른 k-NN의 예측력 연구: 삼성전자주가를 사례로)

  • Chun, Se-Hak
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.25 no.3
    • /
    • pp.239-251
    • /
    • 2019
  • Statistical methods such as moving averages, Kalman filtering, exponential smoothing, regression analysis, and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) have been used for stock market predictions. However, these statistical methods have not produced superior performances. In recent years, machine learning techniques have been widely used in stock market predictions, including artificial neural network, SVM, and genetic algorithm. In particular, a case-based reasoning method, known as k-nearest neighbor is also widely used for stock price prediction. Case based reasoning retrieves several similar cases from previous cases when a new problem occurs, and combines the class labels of similar cases to create a classification for the new problem. However, case based reasoning has some problems. First, case based reasoning has a tendency to search for a fixed number of neighbors in the observation space and always selects the same number of neighbors rather than the best similar neighbors for the target case. So, case based reasoning may have to take into account more cases even when there are fewer cases applicable depending on the subject. Second, case based reasoning may select neighbors that are far away from the target case. Thus, case based reasoning does not guarantee an optimal pseudo-neighborhood for various target cases, and the predictability can be degraded due to a deviation from the desired similar neighbor. This paper examines how the size of learning data affects stock price predictability through k-nearest neighbor and compares the predictability of k-nearest neighbor with the random walk model according to the size of the learning data and the number of neighbors. In this study, Samsung electronics stock prices were predicted by dividing the learning dataset into two types. For the prediction of next day's closing price, we used four variables: opening value, daily high, daily low, and daily close. In the first experiment, data from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. In the second experiment, data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. The test data is from January 1, 2018 to August 31, 2018 for both experiments. We compared the performance of k-NN with the random walk model using the two learning dataset. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 1.3497 for the random walk model and 1.3570 for the k-NN for the first experiment when the learning data was small. However, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the random walk model was 1.3497 and the k-NN was 1.2928 for the second experiment when the learning data was large. These results show that the prediction power when more learning data are used is higher than when less learning data are used. Also, this paper shows that k-NN generally produces a better predictive power than random walk model for larger learning datasets and does not when the learning dataset is relatively small. Future studies need to consider macroeconomic variables related to stock price forecasting including opening price, low price, high price, and closing price. Also, to produce better results, it is recommended that the k-nearest neighbor needs to find nearest neighbors using the second step filtering method considering fundamental economic variables as well as a sufficient amount of learning data.

Development for Fishing Gear and Method of the Non-Float Midwater Pair Trawl Net(I) - Opening Efficiency of Model Net according to the Length of Lower Warp - (무부자 쌍끌이 중층망 어구어법의 개발(I) - 아래끌줄의 길이에 따른 모형어구의 전개성능 -)

  • 이주희;유제범;이춘우;권병국;김정문
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
    • /
    • v.39 no.1
    • /
    • pp.33-43
    • /
    • 2003
  • The midwater pair trawl which is being used at present in Korea have several problems. Firstly, it is difficult to control the net height on high towing speed. Secondly, net breaking often occurs owing to floats and thirdly, the volume of net on the net drum is so large. This study is aiming for examining the possibility of application for the Korean midwater pair trawl through the model experiment of non-float midwater pair trawl. The model of non-float midwater pair trawl was manufactured as 1/100 of the full scale net which is being used in bottom pair trawl for 850ps class considering the Tauti's Similarity law. The model experiment was carried out to analyze the opening efficiency according to the variation of lower warp length and the opening efficiency was investigated between th proto type and non-float type. The results obtained can be summarized as follows ; 1. The hydrodynamic resistance of non-float type was about 10~20% smaller than that of the proto type and it increased about 1ton according to the increase of dL at the condition of the same flow speed. The resistance acting on the lower warp decreased about 5% but that of the upper warp increased according to the increase of lower warp length (dL) at the condition of the same flow speed. 2. The net height of the non-float type decreased almost linearly according as the increased of flow speed and it increased in a logarithmic functional form with the increase of the lower warp length at the condition of the same flow speed. On the decreasing rate of the net height, the non-float type was lower than the proto type and the difference of the decreasing rate was about 12% at 3.0 knot, 25% at 4.0 knot, 25% at 4.0 knot respectively when dL was 30m. 3. The net width of non-float type was not varied so much as only 2m range and was larger than that of proto type. 4. The mouth area of non-float type decreased in a exponential functional form. On the decreasing rate of the mouth area, the non-float type was lower than the proto type. The filtering volume increased in a logarithmic functional form with increasing flow speed and the filtering volume of proto type decreased steeply over 3.0knot, but that of non-float type increased until 4.0knot. 5. The optimal length of lower warp was when the value of dL was about 30m and the optimal position of front weight was at the connection point of four net pendants.

Experimental Analysis of Nodal Head-outflow Relationship Using a Model Water Supply Network for Pressure Driven Analysis of Water Distribution System (상수관망 압력기반 수리해석을 위한 모의 실험시설 기반 절점의 압력-유량 관계 분석)

  • Chang, Dongeil;Kang, Kihoon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
    • /
    • v.36 no.6
    • /
    • pp.421-428
    • /
    • 2014
  • For the analysis of water supply network, demand-driven and pressure-driven analysis methods have been proposed. Of the two methods, demand-driven analysis (DDA) can only be used in a normal operation condition to evaluate hydraulic status of a pipe network. Under abnormal conditions, i.e., unexpected pipe destruction, or abnormal low pressure conditions, pressure-driven analysis (PDA) method should be used to estimate the suppliable flowrate at each node in a network. In order to carry out the pressure-driven analysis, head-outflow relationship (HOR), which estimates flowrate at a certain pressure at each node, should be first determined. Most previous studies empirically suggested that each node possesses its own characteristic head-outflow relationship, which, therefore, requires verification by using actual field data for proper application in PDA modeling. In this study, a model pipe network was constructed, and various operation scenarios of normal and abnormal conditions, which cannot be realized in real pipe networks, were established. Using the model network, data on pressure and flowrate at each node were obtained at each operation condition. Using the data obtained, previously proposed HOR equations were evaluated. In addition, head-outflow relationship at each node was analyzed especially under multiple pipe destruction events. By analyzing the experimental data obtained from the model network, it was found that flowrate reduction corresponding to a certain pressure drop (by pipe destruction at one or multiple points on the network) followed intrinsic head-outflow relationship of each node. By comparing the experimentally obtained head-outflow relationship with various HOR equations proposed by previous studies, the one proposed by Wagner et al. showed the best agreement with the exponential parameter, m of 3.0.

A Thermal Time-Driven Dormancy Index as a Complementary Criterion for Grape Vine Freeze Risk Evaluation (포도 동해위험 판정기준으로서 온도시간 기반의 휴면심도 이용)

  • Kwon, Eun-Young;Jung, Jea-Eun;Chung, U-Ran;Lee, Seung-Jong;Song, Gi-Cheol;Choi, Dong-Geun;Yun, Jin-I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.8 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-9
    • /
    • 2006
  • Regardless of the recent observed warmer winters in Korea, more freeze injuries and associated economic losses are reported in fruit industry than ever before. Existing freeze-frost forecasting systems employ only daily minimum temperature for judging the potential damage on dormant flowering buds but cannot accommodate potential biological responses such as short-term acclimation of plants to severe weather episodes as well as annual variation in climate. We introduce 'dormancy depth', in addition to daily minimum temperature, as a complementary criterion for judging the potential damage of freezing temperatures on dormant flowering buds of grape vines. Dormancy depth can be estimated by a phonology model driven by daily maximum and minimum temperature and is expected to make a reasonable proxy for physiological tolerance of buds to low temperature. Dormancy depth at a selected site was estimated for a climatological normal year by this model, and we found a close similarity in time course change pattern between the estimated dormancy depth and the known cold tolerance of fruit trees. Inter-annual and spatial variation in dormancy depth were identified by this method, showing the feasibility of using dormancy depth as a proxy indicator for tolerance to low temperature during the winter season. The model was applied to 10 vineyards which were recently damaged by a cold spell, and a temperature-dormancy depth-freeze injury relationship was formulated into an exponential-saturation model which can be used for judging freeze risk under a given set of temperature and dormancy depth. Based on this model and the expected lowest temperature with a 10-year recurrence interval, a freeze risk probability map was produced for Hwaseong County, Korea. The results seemed to explain why the vineyards in the warmer part of Hwaseong County have been hit by more freeBe damage than those in the cooler part of the county. A dormancy depth-minimum temperature dual engine freeze warning system was designed for vineyards in major production counties in Korea by combining the site-specific dormancy depth and minimum temperature forecasts with the freeze risk model. In this system, daily accumulation of thermal time since last fall leads to the dormancy state (depth) for today. The regional minimum temperature forecast for tomorrow by the Korea Meteorological Administration is converted to the site specific forecast at a 30m resolution. These data are input to the freeze risk model and the percent damage probability is calculated for each grid cell and mapped for the entire county. Similar approaches may be used to develop freeze warning systems for other deciduous fruit trees.

Effects of Dietary Levels of Glycine, Threonine and Protein on Threonine Efficiency and Threonine Dehydrogenase Activity in Hepatic Mitochondria of Chicks

  • Lee, C.W.;Cho, I.J.;Lee, Y.J.;Son, Y.S.;Kwak, I.;Ahn, Y.T.;Kim, S.C.;An, W.G.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
    • /
    • v.27 no.1
    • /
    • pp.69-76
    • /
    • 2014
  • This study was carried out to evaluate the relationship between threonine (Thr) efficiency and Thr dehydrogenase (TDG) activity as an indicator of Thr oxidation on chicks fed with levels of diets (CP [17.5% and 21.5%] and Thr [3.8 and 4.7 g/100 g CP]; glycine [Gly][0.64% and 0.98%] and true digestible Thr [dThr] [0.45% and 0.60%]). Calculation of the Thr efficiency was based on N-balance data and an exponential N-utilization model, and TDG activity was determined as accumulation of aminoacetone and Gly during incubation of hepatic mitochondria. This study found that in the liver of chicks who received a diet containing up to 0.79% Thr (4.7 g Thr/100 g of CP) in the 17.5% CP diet, no significant (p>0.05) effect on TDG activity was observed. However, significantly (p = 0.014) increased TDG activity was observed with a diet containing 21.5% CP (4.7 g Thr/100 g of CP) and the efficiency of Thr utilization showed a significant (p = 0.001) decrease, indicating the end of the Thr limiting range. No significant (p>0.05) effect on the total TDG activity and accumulation of Gly was observed with addition of Gly to a diet containing 0.45% dThr. In addition, addition of Gly to a diet containing 0.60% dThr also did not result in a change in accumulation of Gly. Due to an increase in accumulation of aminoacetone, an elevated effect on total TDG activity was also observed. No significant (p>0.05) reduction in the efficiency of Thr utilization was observed after addition of Gly at the level of 0.45% dThr. However, significantly (p<0.001) reduced efficiency of Thr utilization was observed after addition of Gly at the level of 0.60% dThr. Collectively, we found that TDG was stimulated not only by addition of Thr and protein to the diet, but also by addition of Gly, and efficiency of Thr utilization was favorably affected by addition of Gly at the level near to the optimal Thr concentration. In addition, no metabolic requirement of Gly through the TDG pathway was observed with almost the same accumulation of Gly and a slight increase in TDG activity by addition of Gly. Thus, our findings suggest that determination of TDG activity and parameter of efficiency of Thr utilization may be useful for evaluation of dietary Thr level.

Multiscale Analysis on Expectation of Mechanical Behavior of Polymer Nanocomposites using Nanoparticulate Agglomeration Density Index (나노 입자의 군집밀도를 이용한 고분자 나노복합재의 기계적 거동 예측에 대한 멀티스케일 연구)

  • Baek, Kyungmin;Shin, Hyunseong;Han, Jin-Gyu;Cho, Maenghyo
    • Composites Research
    • /
    • v.30 no.5
    • /
    • pp.323-330
    • /
    • 2017
  • In this study, multiscale analysis in which the information obtained from molecular dynamics simulation is applied to the continuum mechanics level is conducted to investigate the effects of clustering of silicon carbide nanoparticles reinforced into polypropylene matrix on mechanical behavior of nanocomposites. The elastic behavior of polymer nanocomposites is observed for various states of nanoparticulate agglomeration according to the model reflecting the degradation of interphase properties. In addition, factors which mainly affect the mechanical behavior of the nanocomposites are identified, and new index 'clustering density' is defined. The correlation between the clustering density and the elastic modulus of nanocomposites is understood. As the clustering density increases, the interfacial effect decreased and finally the improvement of mechanical properties is suppressed. By considering the random distribution of the nanoparticles, the range of elastic modulus of nanocomposites for same value of clustering density can be investigated. The correlation can be expressed in the form of exponential function, and the mechanical behavior of the polymer nanocomposites can be effectively predicted by using the nanoparticulate clustering density.

Analysis on the Stress of Hydraulic Cylinder for Large Vessel by Boundary Element Method (대형선박용 유압실린더에서 경제요소법을 이용한 응력해석)

  • 김옥삼
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
    • /
    • v.31 no.4
    • /
    • pp.423-434
    • /
    • 1995
  • It was used boundary element method(BEM) and analysed axisymmetric problem to solve hydraulic cylinder for large vessel acting uniform internal pressure(25N/m super(2)) within elastic limit. This paper was utilized the carbon steel tubes for machine structural purposed model, inner radius was 150mm and outer radius was 250mm, axial length was semi-infinite and the isoparametric element was used. The important results obtained in this study were summarized as follows. Radial, tangential and shearing stress occured the maximum stresses(48, -20 and 34MPa) at the inner radius and the minimum stresses(32, -4 and 18MPa) at the outer radius of the hydraulic cylinder for large vessel. But negative signs have meaning compressive stress and stress diminution ratio was about 0.15MPa/mm. The use of isoparametric element raised accuracy and the increment of input data lessened the error in internal point but computer run-time was increased. The double node was improved the internal solutions to settle discontinuity at corner and the double exponential formula lessened error of stress value at boundary neighborhood. And then coincidence between the analytical and exact results is found to be fairly good, showing that the proposed analytical by BEM is reliable.

  • PDF

Estimation of Water Temperature by Heat Balance Method in Paddy Field. (열수지법(熱收支法)에 의한 벼논의 수온추정(水溫推定))

  • Lee, Jeong-Taek;Yun, Seong-Ho;Im, Jung-Nam;Takami, Shinich
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
    • /
    • v.8 no.1
    • /
    • pp.30-36
    • /
    • 1989
  • To determine irrigated water temperature under the rice plant canopy, micrometeorological elements air temperature, relative humidity, water temperature, solar radiation, and the rice leaf area index the rice plant canopywere measured. Water temperature under the canopy was also estimated from these data. The results are as follows ; 1. Maximum and minimum temperatures of water in the paddy field were higher about $1-2^{\circ}C$ than those of air temperature. 2. Mean water temperature under the canopy became lower than mean air temperature when the leaf area indices were greater than 4, because of decreased light penetration rates 3. Penetration amounts of net radiation under the canopy can be estimated by an exponential equation 4. Estimated water temperatures under the canopy by a combination method model was adaptable in Suweon, a plain area, but its accuracy was lower in Jinbu, an alpine area.

  • PDF

A Study on the Building and Operating of the National Science Library (국가과학도서관 건립 및 운영에 관한 고찰)

  • Kwak, Dong-Chul
    • Journal of Information Management
    • /
    • v.41 no.3
    • /
    • pp.105-130
    • /
    • 2010
  • Science and technology information resources are major impetus for all research and development activities. Now countries around the world are seeking efficient and effective means to cope with the exponential growth of needs for science and technology information for research. In this context, it has been perceived vital to establish national infrastructures in order to extend the availability of world's science and technology information. In Korea, it has been a recurring issue to build a national science library to prevent knowledge colonization and to gain a competitive edge in the fields. It is essential to have one as a national information infrastructure to assume the role of developing a sustainable model for access to the world's science and technology information, providing permanent access to them. In this paper, therefore, some issues concerning building and managing a new national science library in Korea are examined. In doing so, the following details are dealt with in detail. First, the rationale behind building a national science library is described, Second, the functions and roles of the library are defined, Third, previous discussions and attempts to build a national science library are reviewed and analysed. Finally, possible problems and issues raised in relation to build a national science library are probed, and future directions are also suggested. In this process, the recent strategic plan for national science library, national agriculture library, and national medical library, and changing plan for Sejong city are taken into consideration as influencing factors.