• Title/Summary/Keyword: expected total cost

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Application of Big Data and Machine-learning (ML) Technology to Mitigate Contractor's Design Risks for Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) Projects

  • Choi, Seong-Jun;Choi, So-Won;Park, Min-Ji;Lee, Eul-Bum
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2022.06a
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    • pp.823-830
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    • 2022
  • The risk of project execution increases due to the enlargement and complexity of Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) plant projects. In the fourth industrial revolution era, there is an increasing need to utilize a large amount of data generated during project execution. The design is a key element for the success of the EPC plant project. Although the design cost is about 5% of the total EPC project cost, it is a critical process that affects the entire subsequent process, such as construction, installation, and operation & maintenance (O&M). This study aims to develop a system using machine-learning (ML) techniques to predict risks and support decision-making based on big data generated in an EPC project's design and construction stages. As a result, three main modules were developed: (M1) the design cost estimation module, (M2) the design error check module, and (M3) the change order forecasting module. M1 estimated design cost based on project data such as contract amount, construction period, total design cost, and man-hour (M/H). M2 and M3 are applications for predicting the severity of schedule delay and cost over-run due to design errors and change orders through unstructured text data extracted from engineering documents. A validation test was performed through a case study to verify the model applied to each module. It is expected to improve the risk response capability of EPC contractors in the design and construction stage through this study.

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Optimal Release Policies of Software System with Scheduled Delivery Time (예정된 인도시기를 가진 Software시스템의 최적방출정책)

  • 정영배;신현재
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.9 no.13
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    • pp.29-32
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    • 1986
  • A decision procedure to determine when computer software should be released after testing is described. This paper extends optimum release policies minimizing the total expected software cost with a scheduled software delivery time under reliability requirement constraint. Such cost considerations enable us to make a release decision as to when transfer a software system from testing phase to operational phase. The underlying model is software reliability growth model described by a nonhomogeneous poisson process. It is assumed that the penalty cost function due to delay for a scheduled software delivery time is linearly proportional to time. Numerical examples are shown to illustrate the results.

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Determination of Target Value under Automatic Vision Inspection Systems (자동시각검사환경하에서 공정 목표치의 설정)

  • 서순근;이성재
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.66-78
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    • 2001
  • This paper deals with problem of determining process target value under automated visual inspection(AVI) system. Three independent error sources - digitizing error, illumination error, and positional error - which have a close relationship with the performance of the AVI system, are considered. Assuming that digitizing error is uniformly or normally distributed and illumination and positional errors are normally distributed, respectively, the distribution function for the error of measured lengths is derived when the length of a product is measured by the AVI system. Then, Optimal target values under two error models of AVI system are obtained by minimizing the total expected cost function which consists of give away, rework and penalty cost. To validate two process setting models, AVI system for drinks filling process is made up and test results are discussed.

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Optimal Dynamic Operating Policies for a Tandem Queueing Service System

  • Hwang, Dong-Joon
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.51-67
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    • 1979
  • This paper considers the problem of determining an optimal dynamic operating policy for a two-stage tandem queueing service system in which the service facilities (or stages) can be operated at more than one service rate. At each period of the system's operation, the system manager must specify which of the available service rates is to be employed at each stage. The cost structure includes an operating cost for running each stage and a service facility profit earned when a service completion occurs at Stage 2. We assume that the system has a finite waiting capacity in front of each station and each customer requires two services which must be done in sequence, that is, customers must pass through Stage 1 and Stage 2 in that order. Processing must be in the order of arrival at each station. The objective is to minimize the total discounted expected cost in a two-stage tandem queueing service system, which we formulate as a Discrete-Time Markov Decision Process. We present analytical and numerical results that specify the form of the optimal dynamic operating policy for a two-stage tandem queueing service system.

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A cost-reliability model for the optimal release time of a software system

  • Lee, Won-Hyung;Kim, Yong-Whi
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 1991.10a
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    • pp.405-421
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    • 1991
  • In this paper, faults existing in a software system is classified into three types; simple, degenerative and regenerative faults. The reliability functions and failure rates of both a software module and system which have a mixture of such faults are obtained and the expected number of failures in the system after time T is also derived. Using the formulas obtained, a cost-reliability model and an efficient algorithm for optimal software release time are proposed via nonlinear programming formulation ; minimizing the total test cost with constraints on the failure rates of each module. Application of this model to several cases are presented and it appears to be more realistic.

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Behavior of Lateral Earth Pressure around the Underpass Constructed by the STS Construction Method

  • Jin, Kyu-Nam;Kim, Hyo-Jin;Sim, Young-Jong
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.271-279
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    • 2016
  • Recently developed trenchless construction methods ensure stability for the ground settlement by inserting steel pipes along the underpass section and integrating steel pipes before ground excavation to form pipe-roof. This study is to confirm the reinforcing effect of pipe-roof by measuring lateral earth pressure acting on the underpass constructed by the STS (Steel Tube Slab) construction method. For this purpose, lateral earth pressure was measured at the left and right side of the pipe-roof after installing earth pressure cells. As a result, lateral earth pressure was measured with considerable reduction because the integrated pipe-roof shared surcharge. Therefore, economic design for the underpass could be expected by sharing design load by pipe-roof. In addition, construction cost was analyzed according to the design-load sharing ratio by pipe-roof. As pipe-roof shares design load by 40%, the total construction cost can decrease by almost 10% in the case of four-lane underpass.

Analysis on Economic Feasibility of Offshore wind power (국내 풍력발전의 경제성 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Youngeun
    • 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2011.11a
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    • pp.149.2-149.2
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    • 2011
  • This paper conducted an analysis of economic effects of offshore wind power in Korea with benefit/cost analysis. The existing feed-on tariff, which was too low to support wind power development, was recently replaced with a Renewable Portfolio Standard(RPS), effective from 2012. According to the new regulatory policy, The Korean government has announced a strategy to draw investments worth for offshore wind farms with a total capacity of 2.5 GW over the next eight years, which is expected the change of cost and benefit. After overview the offshore wind power development status, The effects on cost can be divided by economic, environmental and social factors. Each factor will be calculated and combined by both evaluating index and using Quantification methods. At the end, the implication for the evaluation of feasibility of offshore wind power of Korea will be done.

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A Periodic Replacement Model with Random Repair Costs and Threshold Levels (확률적 수리비용과 임계수준을 고려한 주기적 교체 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Gang Yeong-Gil;Gang Seong-Jin
    • Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.114-125
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    • 1992
  • A policy of periodic replacement with minimal repair at failure is considered for a complex system. Under such a policy the system is replaced at periodic times. iT(i=1,2, $\ldots$), while minimal repair is performed at any intervening system failures. The cost of the j-th minimal repair to the component which fails at age t is g(C(t). $c_j$ (t)), where C(t) is the age-dependent random part, $c_j$(t) is the deterministic part which depends on the age and the number of the minimal repair to the component, and g is a positive nondecreasing continuous function. The cost of replacement is expensive when the number of failures occurring in (0. T) is greater than a threshold level. The problem of determining the optimal replacement period, $T^{\ast}$, which minimizes the total expected cost per unit time over an infinite time horizon is considered. Various special cases are considered.

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Cost Models for Warranty and Preventive Maintenance

  • Kim, Che-Soong
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.66-74
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    • 2002
  • Warranty cost analysis for one-dimensional warranties assumes that the usage intensity (or rate) is the same for all buyers. In real life the usage intensity varies across the population of buyers. Also for products sold with warranty, preventive maintenance actions by manufacturers and buyers have a significant impact on the total costs for both parties. In this paper we deals with models to study the expected warranty cost for products with free repairable warranty with varying usage intensity and three types of preventive maintenance. We also review the literature which links warranty and maintenance and develops a framework to define new topics for research in the future and examines a new model formulation. It then develops a new model and carries out its analysis.

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Optimal Software Release Policies under Increasing Error Correction Cost (증가(増加)하는 오류수정비용하(誤謬修正費用下)에서의 최적(最適) 소프트웨어 방출정책(放出政策))

  • Bae, Do-Seon;Yun, Won-Yeong;Lee, Yeong-Bong
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.51-63
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    • 1989
  • This paper considers software release problems based on Goel-Okumoto and S-shaped reliability growth models. Test of the software system is terminated after a preassigned time T, and it is released to the operational phase. It is assumed that correction cost of an error is increasing with test or operation time. Optimum software release time is obtained using total expected cost on the software life time as a criterion for optimization. In addition, optimal software release policies under the constraint of a software reliability requirement are discussed.

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